The Next Global Superpower Isn't Who You Think | Ian Bremmer | TED

Summary

The speaker discusses the evolution of global power dynamics, moving from a bipolar world dominated by the US and the USSR to a unipolar world led by the US post-Soviet collapse. However, recent shifts have led to a more complex, leaderless world with emerging powers challenging the status quo. The speaker predicts a future with three distinct orders: a unipolar security order led by the US, a multipolar economic order with shared power, and a digital order controlled by tech companies. These orders will shape global interactions and present challenges, especially as technology firms wield increasing influence over society and governance.

Takeaways

• 🌐 The world has shifted from a bipolar to a unipolar and now to a more complex structure due to the decline of the Soviet Union and the rise of other powers.
• 🇺🇸 The United States was the sole superpower post-Soviet collapse, but it has become less willing to act as the world's policeman, architect of global trade, or cheerleader for global values.
• 🤔 The script suggests that the world is currently leaderless, with geopolitical tensions and conflicts driven by three main reasons: Russia's decline, China's integration into US-led institutions without adopting American values, and the feeling of being left behind by globalization in wealthy democracies.
• 💥 The current global security order is unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, capable of projecting military power worldwide.
• 🌟 The global economic order is multipolar, with the United States, China, and other nations like the European Union and India playing significant roles and influencing economic policies.
• 🛡️ The US uses its national security power to influence global economies, while China attempts to use its commercial position to gain diplomatic alignment.
• 🔍 Tensions exist between the security and economic orders, with countries like Japan, Europe, and India striving to prevent either from dominating the other.
• 🌐 A new digital order is emerging, driven by technology companies rather than governments, which have significant influence over security, communication, and information dissemination.
• 🛑 The power of technology companies is immense, with the ability to shape identities, promote or suppress information, and even influence political outcomes.
• 🔑 The future could see a technology cold war, a digital global order, or a techno-polar world, depending on how technology companies and governments interact and exert influence.
• ⚠️ The speaker raises concerns about the accountability of technology companies, their use of data, and the potential societal impacts of their business models and the technologies they develop.

Q & A

What was the world order like when the speaker was growing up?

The speaker grew up in a bipolar world dominated by two superpowers: the United States and the Soviet Union, each setting rules on their respective sides of the world.

What is the current global security order like according to the script?

The current global security order is unipolar, with the United States and its allies being the most powerful players, able to project military power globally.

Why did the world become more complicated about 15 years ago?

The world became more complicated as the United States started to withdraw from its roles as the world's policeman, architect of global trade, and cheerleader for global values, while other countries gained more power and began to ignore or set new rules.

What are the three main reasons for the current geopolitical tensions and conflicts?

The three main reasons are: 1) Russia's decline and anger due to not being integrated into Western institutions, 2) China's integration into US-led institutions but maintaining its distinct identity, and 3) the feeling of being left behind by globalization among citizens in the United States and other wealthy democracies.

What is the current state of the global economic order?

The global economic order is multipolar, with power shared among different countries. The United States and China are economically interdependent, and other countries like the European Union and India also play significant roles.

How does the speaker describe the emerging digital order?

The digital order is not run by governments but by technology companies. It is increasingly influential in shaping global affairs, with the power to affect security, communication, and even political processes.

What role did technology companies play in the Ukraine conflict?

Technology companies provided tools that allowed Ukraine to defend itself from Russian cyber attacks and enabled Ukrainian leaders to communicate with their military, which was crucial for their defense.

What is the potential impact of technology companies on our identities according to the script?

Technology companies, through algorithms, increasingly determine our identities alongside nature and nurture, shaping how we perceive ourselves and the world around us.

What are the possible outcomes for the digital order as described in the script?

The digital order could lead to a technology cold war, a new form of digital globalization, or a techno-polar order where technology companies become the dominant global actors, potentially impacting freedom and opportunity.

How does the speaker describe the current role of the United States in exporting democracy?

The speaker notes that the United States has shifted from being the principal exporter of democracy to becoming the principal exporter of tools that can destroy democracy.

What questions does the speaker pose regarding the actions of technology companies?

The speaker questions whether technology companies will act accountably with new artificial intelligence, how they will handle the unprecedented amount of data they collect, and if they will continue with advertising models that drive hate and misinformation.