The World is NOT Ready & Beware Bitcoin Trap

Summary

The video discusses the current state of the bitcoin market, analyzing price fluctuations, trading data, and factors driving demand. It highlights record investment flows into bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity, contrasting this with declining Grayscale volumes. Also covered are leverage and liquidation trends, the impact of large OTC desk supply depletion, implications of the upcoming halving, scarcity dynamics using stock-to-flow analysis, and bitcoin's long-term growth potential relative to global wealth.

Takeaways

• 😲 Bitcoin had a big price drop recently but quickly recovered - this is just normal volatility caused by leverage and market makers wanting to hit stop losses.
• 👍 Bitcoin's stock to flow ratio will soon be 1/3 that of gold - meaning extreme scarcity.
• ⏳ There are only 48 days until the next Bitcoin halving event which will decrease new supply by 50%.
• 📈 Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) saw record inflows yesterday, with BlackRock leading.
• 😎 Edward Snowden predicts a national government will be revealed as a big Bitcoin buyer this year.
• 🔒 On chain data shows long term holders accumulating and low supply on OTC markets.
• 😀 Bitcoin price action is still far from the peak of historical market cycles according to on chain analysis.
• 👀 A back of the envelope calc shows Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if it captured some global wealth.
• 💰 Mr. 100 wallet is buying over 100% of new Bitcoin supply daily showing intense demand.
• 🇧🇷 BlackRock is launching a Bitcoin ETF in Brazil where there is high inflation and currency problems.

Q & A

What is the stock to flow model and why is it important for Bitcoin?

The stock to flow model measures the scarcity of an asset based on its existing stock and new production flow. It shows that Bitcoin is becoming exponentially more scarce over time, making it an attractive store of value like gold but with superior scarcity properties.

How much Bitcoin is left in OTC desks according to James Van Stratton's data?

According to James Van Stratton's data on Glassnode OTC desks, Bitcoin supply on OTC desks is at the lowest level seen in 5 years, indicating tightening supply.

Why did Bitcoin see a big price drop recently if demand is so high?

The price drop was likely triggered by market makers wanting to liquidate leveraged long positions to profit from the volatility before the price rebounds even higher due to strong underlying demand.

What is the predicted target price range for Bitcoin in the near term?

The predicted target zone for Bitcoin in technical analysis is between $58,000 to $60,000 based on it being an area where market makers can liquidate both longs and shorts for maximum profit.

How much Bitcoin have the new ETFs accumulated so far?

The new ETFs have accumulated over 327,000 Bitcoin worth over $20 billion in just 33 days, with BlackRock alone holding over $7 billion.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving that's happening soon?

The Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by 50%, meaning new supply gets cut in half while demand continues rising, creating a supply shock.

What is the predicted value per Bitcoin if it captures a fraction of global wealth?

Estimates suggest each Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if Bitcoin captures even a fraction of total global wealth, indicating there is room for 100 million to 1 growth from current prices.

Who is the mystery whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying large amounts of Bitcoin?

The identity of the whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying blocks of 100 BTC daily is unknown, but speculation indicates it may be a national government secretly accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

What does the technical indicator suggest about Bitcoin being near a top?

According to PlanB's stock-to-flow model, the Pi cycle top indicator suggests Bitcoin is only about halfway through the current bull run, with significant room to grow before hitting a cycle top.

Why is Bitcoin unlikely to see major regulation in the near future?

Governments will be hesitant to ban Bitcoin because undisclosed state actors are likely quietly accumulating it as a strategic reserve asset and will retaliate if their holdings are threatened.

Outlines

00:00

😀 Overview of the key points in the video

The narrator provides an overview of the key topics to be covered, including Bitcoin price action, updated ETF numbers, the Bitcoin having event, and more. There is excitement around the 'biggest day ever' for the channel.

05:01

👌 Bitcoin price crash explained

The Bitcoin price saw a massive crash yesterday, falling to levels not seen in 16 hours. The narrator explains this is due to high funding rates and market makers trying to liquidate leveraged longs and shorts. The target zone is around $58k-60k which could present a good buying opportunity.

10:04

💰 Record ETF inflows while GBTC dumps Bitcoin

Despite GBTC dumping $216 million worth of Bitcoin, record ETF inflows from BlackRock and Fidelity more than offset this. OTC desks are also running low on Bitcoin supply. More regions like Brazil are launching Bitcoin ETF products.

15:07

🌏 The world is not ready for the Bitcoin halving and scarcity

As Bitcoin moves to a 0.8% inflation rate, its monetary policy will be harder than real estate while having exponentially more demand. Large entities are buying up more than 100% of new supply daily, showing extreme scarcity.

20:08

😊 Bitcoin price could reach $10 million someday

A thought experiment shows if Bitcoin became the dominant global payment system, each coin could be worth $10 million. This illustrates how early the market still is in Bitcoin adoption.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin price

The current market price of bitcoin. The video discusses significant price movements, like bitcoin falling to prices not seen in 16 hours, as well as predictions that if bitcoin succeeds, each coin could be worth $10 million. The price often fluctuates based on market events.

💡Stock to flow model

An analytical model that uses an asset's existing stock (total supply) and flow (production rate) to model its market price based on scarcity. The video claims bitcoin will soon have a stock to flow ratio one-third that of gold, making it extremely scarce and valuable.

💡Bitcoin halving

An event where the bitcoin mining reward per block is cut in half, happening once every 4 years. There are only 48 days until the next halving, which will decrease new bitcoin supply and likely increase price.

💡ETF

Exchange-traded fund. The video discusses record bitcoin investment into new bitcoin ETFs versus falling investment in the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust ETF (GBTC), indicating shifting institutional interest.

💡Fiat currency

Government-issued currency with no backing, like the US dollar. The weakness of fiat is mentioned to explain growing interest in bitcoin from countries with troubled national currencies.

💡Market manipulation

Intentional intervention in a market to create price swings and drive specific outcomes. The video suggests recent bitcoin price drops are connected to futures market makers trying to liquidate leveraged long positions.

💡Leverage

Borrowing capital to invest at an amplified scale, often by 100x or more. The video cautions that overleveraged positions often get liquidated in volatile markets like bitcoin.

💡Institutional investors

Large professional fund managers that invest on behalf of clients. Institutional interest in bitcoin is highlighted by major investments from BlackRock and Fidelity in new bitcoin ETFs.

💡OTC desks

Over-the-counter trading desks that facilitate large bitcoin purchases away from public exchanges. Declining inventory at OTC desks signals strong underlying buyer demand.

💡Scarcity

The limited availability of bitcoin, which has a fixed eventual supply of 21 million coins. Multiple data points suggest demand is outstripping newly mined supply, increasing scarcity.

Highlights

Bitcoin stock to flow ratio shows Bitcoin is moving to 1/3 the stock to flow of gold, meaning extreme scarcity

Bitcoin OTC desks have lowest Bitcoin supply in 5 years according to Glassnode data

BlackRock launching Bitcoin ETF in Brazil as countries like Brazil understand problems with fiat currencies

Bitcoin funding rates are extremely high indicating market makers preparing to wipe out leverage longs and shorts

Pi cycle top indicator shows we're not even halfway to the top, lots of room to grow

Edward Snowden predicts a national government will be revealed to secretly buying Bitcoin this year

Daily Bitcoin exchange inflow/outflow volume reached $5.57 billion, rivalling November 2020 all-time high

Biggest single day net inflow ever into Bitcoin ETFs at $673 million despite Grayscale dumping $216 million

BlackRock and Fidelity Bitcoin ETFs hold over 327,000 BTC, more than MicroStrategy's stash

A single entity is buying 100 BTC blocks worth over daily issuance, showing relentless demand

Bitcoin realized cap just $6 billion away from all-time high despite price drop, indicating strong developer support

If Bitcoin captures total global wealth, each BTC could be worth $10 million+ indicating vast upside

Short time holder deposits accelerating, speculation near all-time highs but traders being liquidated against uptrend

Bitcoin's volatile swing wrecked over half a billion in leveraged positions, Wall Street profits while retail loses

48 days until the Bitcoin halving, the world is not ready for the extreme supply shock

Transcripts

hello

everybody day 33 wow what a big day and

there's weird stuff going on and people

are freaking out Bitcoin is now at

prices we have not seen in 16 hours and

it's the end of the world but that's

just human nature literally Bitcoin fell

to price is not seen since 400 p.m.

yesterday and I'll explain what's

happening why it's happening who is

behind it okay we'll also talk about

some of the updated uh ETF numbers and

we are having the biggest day ever in 33

days we'll also do some charting I'll

show you the updated P Cycle top from

our top and bottom indicator which is

extremely bullish too and most

importantly how the world is not ready

for this having I'll break it out in

great detail biggest day ever day 33 and

I like my threes very fitting let's go

thank you as well to the mods in the

chat and we have a new thank you team

for putting this together Johnn pay says

longtime patreon first time chat jnn has

been in our patreon nearly three years

when we started three years ago thank

you so much for being out there let's go

uh first of all don't forget we have a

playlist Bitcoin only Alpha it's gotten

really big now and it has some good

stuff in there and it's even worth going

back in time everything is tagged up

really well set up in chapters if you

have certain questions uh that typically

reoccur like having like Stu to flow

like py cycle tops you just search all

that stuff investor answers in the term

and it'll take you directly to the

chapter now we got 48 days left 48 days

left we had the biggest ETF Day Ever

yesterday I will check on the volumes in

a minute Bitcoin had a massive Wick

people were freaking out but before we

get to that as to why that happened it's

so predictable it's so funny if I made

this video 2 hours

ago the dip would have happened right

after it's Madness timing is everything

and I'm a little bit late because it

takes so long to put all this content

together and a huge shout out to our

research team behind the scenes but this

is the big story today this is how we

are not ready for Bitcoin in the stock

to flow World shout out to uh I forget

who put this chart together it'll come

to me in a minute it'll come to me in a

minute but this is the Bitcoin stock to

flow ratio and again a quick reminder

everything the price of everything in

the world is based on scarcity ladies

and gentlemen whether it's a Gucci purse

or a Bitcoin or whatever else it's

scarcity and the stock to flow model is

now back in fashion it also works again

it's back in the zone right now at

around 60k now if you look here you'll

see the gold inflation rate that's the

red line on the chart it's about 2.3% a

year it's kind of like controlled

manipulated kind of like diamonds so

that's just gold if they want to get a

little bit more if they want to jack up

to 2.6% they just dig a little deeper

and sometimes they do that then you have

the Bitcoin inflation rate that's the

orange jaggedy

line and remember this is how much it

decreases after every having and by the

way the dotted golden line at the bottom

right hand corner is where we are going

the key part of this everybody all

right it's going we are moving into a

zone that will be onethird onethird the

stock to flow of gold that means it

would take 119 years of Bitcoin mining

at the

3.125 Block Bitcoin per block rate to

recreate the current circling Supply but

it Hales again after four years and

again four years after that and where

will people find their coins this is

scarce as can be

the world and this is from Checkmate the

chart thank you Checkmate I knew it

would come to me the world is not ready

for the Bitcoin having event in 48 days

all right we're we're going to a 0.8%

inflation rate harder than real

estate but now there's more money flying

into this asset than any other asset in

the planet which I'll show you in a

minute this is a beautiful time to be

alive stay healthy my friend

also breaking news OTC from James Van

Stratton he is on top of things and he

is the first to say that Bitcoin and OTC

desks on glass note is not entirely

representative of the entire OTC desk

but even if it is directionally correct

this is the lowest level of Bitcoin

Supply and OTC desks in 5 years okay the

coverage is bare there's no more all

right according to this there's

literally nothing left in the OTC desk

yes this gone it's

gone so how come the price is going down

we'll explain that in a second but now

we're going to look at this okay simple

little graphical chart shout out to

Sanjay as well uh here you can show the

massive dumpage yesterday 216 million

from

gbtc

guys okay 216 million but guess who did

three times that volume Black Rock

Madness completely Madness and guess who

surpassed it F delity 245 million it

doesn't matter I said it in yesterday's

video what grce scale do now is a

nothing Burger dcg is nearly out of

their Bitcoin okay they had 1.3 billion

they're dumping 216 million a day and

they've been doing it for like six or

eight trading days it's almost gone the

OTC desk is almost gone and we are going

to walk into the biggest Supply crunch

in the history of the world guaranteed

and there's more we've been talking

about Singapore and Hong Kong and

Vietnam and Japan and all the different

places building out ETFs but guess what

black rock is going to launch a Bitcoin

ETF in Brazil they are ready to go and

you know the problem they have in Brazil

shout out to everybody in Brazil oi Tabo

is they know currency problems they know

Fiat is crap their neighbors are

Argentina nobody nobody knows this

better than people in place

like Lebanon and Nigeria and Argentina

and Brazil

as to how weak and horrible Fiat is so

this is other exciting news now let's

talk about what's going on with the

price Bitcoin is at 61,000 actually it's

higher than it was at 4:00 yesterday but

that's just something else so one of the

weird things

is sometimes humans can't fathom what's

going on because they don't look at the

data they don't look at the numbers so

they say oh my God bigcoin has gone up

$22,000 in a month that's the biggest

monthly candle ever in the history of

Bitcoin I did a tweet on that last

night therefore it has to mean revert it

has to come down therefore the majority

of people are now short Bitcoin let's

look at this hey Joseph good to see you

again today here you can see the red are

short positions and the green are long

positions and you see the majority is

red it's pretty evenly cut for some

exchanges like byy bit The Bu bit no the

I can't read that c exactly gate.io

they're very bullish and so are bitf

very bullish but the other places

Kracken very bearish uh binance bearish

etc etc this is the problem a lot of

people are short but a lot of people are

long too and you know what happens when

you have a lot of shorts and Longs you

have this okay this is very very high

funding rates okay the market makers are

getting ready okay to swipe liquidity

and the Target on this is is 58,000

we'll talk about that and if they do

okay this is where if we do go as low as

58k the market makers want this because

they want to wreck the Longs right now

and then when it spikes up they want to

wreck the shorts it cuts both ways but

literally if we get close to 58 to 60k

that's where you buy with both hands if

you don't have any Bitcoin set your

limit orders now not Financial advice

now it's a tough call whether we will

get as low as 58k with all this demand

hard to say but again there's a lot of

Bitcoin buying and the funding rates are

extremely high another visual what I'm

talking about is the Kill Zone this is

the limit order kill zone right there

somewhere between say 59 and

58k maybe down as low as 54k the market

makers want to wreck you also they want

to buy your cheap Bitcoin so they can

give it to the ETFs that's how it works

everybody this is what's happening it is

not if there was just straight Market

with people kind of buying and selling

bitco coin out

there that we wouldn't see the

fluctuations but that's how markets work

it's full of Leverage full of

manipulation full of dumpage and that's

all that's happening so just give it a

day or two and we'll be right back

towards the moon now let's look at

exactly proof this is again I wish I

could have done this two hours ago CU I

had the data but didn't have the time to

finish the entire story but we knew this

was coming and so far 24 hours wrecked

it's

54631 million and a lot of them are

Longs the vast majority are Longs that's

what's happening everybody shoots up

shoots down that's why Wall Street makes

so much money and that's why djans lose

so much

money again going back to this don't

jump in front of a freight train but it

does you know the short squeezes do

impact prices too so that's what

happened over half a billion dollar gone

and here's another view of the leverage

heat map by the way LL is Leverage or

low

leverage I meant to add some HL for high

leverage but look at the Gold stuff the

high Leverage is very close to the price

these are the people get really really

wrecked now I am a low leverage player I

have a leverage long on salana

3.3x Jupiter just hit 200% today um but

that here is what I play very very low

levels of Leverage and a lot of capital

behind it so I make sure I never get

Wicked out that's the way to play

leverage ladies and gentlemen now let's

talk about more in terms of Scar

scarcity before we get into the ETFs Mr

100 I touched on this yesterday he's

been accelerating so you can see uh just

today all right the the red line in the

middle is what this person The Sovereign

whatever bought today these are blocks

of 100 Bitcoin let me count one two 3 4

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 they

bought nearly 130% of the daily issuance

of Bitcoin okay and they bought this all

above

$60,000 one

person absolutely sucks up all the daily

supply of Bitcoin one

person and they're accelerating they

used to buy three times 100 every day

now the yesterday they did 9 * 100 or 8

* 100 today a lot more than that okay so

it's crazy and they're not stopping

there is no stop they'll continue and

the more I don't know where this is

going to end up it's crazy now let's go

to a little bit of a thought experiment

as well beautiful little math project

here this is from Hal

finny and this just has to really

explain uh how early we are even though

you may not think so it's like oh my God

Bitcoins at 61,000 is too high but

imagine Bitcoin is successful and

becomes the dominant payment system in

the world then the total value of all

the currency should be equal to the

total value of all the wealth in the

world and current estimates of worldwide

household wealth range from 100 trillion

to 300 trillion really this is by the

way this is 15 years ago so now it's

about 900 trillion but just pretend it's

300 trillion okay with 20 million coins

of course is 21 but they're rounding

here that gives each coin a value of

about $10

million okay now if you take 900

trillion actually drop a comment below

everybody math homework time uh some

people love these little quizzes

especially with your kids it's a good

activity okay I want you to divide 900

trillion by 21 million drop the answer

below I will pin the winner okay the

first to get it also what this basically

Bally means again that gives each coin a

value of about $10 million just assuming

a fraction of the actual household

wealth that exists today so the

possibility of generating coins today

with a few cents of compute uh might be

like a good bet with a payoff of

something like 100 million to one okay

even if the odds of winning are 100

million to one it makes sense to do it

okay so it's just something to think

about I thought that was very profound

and I love that oh by the way we're

$9.94 million away from this

target I'll repeat that

$9.94 million away this thing is hard

this is scarce and the Sailor says it

just takes

10 just 10 billionaires to decide they

want to allocate the Bitcoin and that's

it gone 10 billionaires all right let's

get back to some charts uh here we see

breaking Bitcoin RC RC is realized cap

is $6 billion from alltime high so this

is in lie of the highest spot price

since December 2021 the risk appetite

amongst Market participants has returned

in style okay this is highlighted by the

acceleration of capital inflows and an

increasing activity among the short-term

holder cohort who are depositing over 2

billion of volume to exchanges every day

speculation activities is also present

across derivative instruments like we

just covered with both options and

Futures Interest being just shy of

alltime high as well the per funding

rates now provide in excess of two to

three times the risk appetite of us

treasuries and this has been an uplift

in liquidity and shorts side interest

and longside interest too however much

of this appears to be directional as

many Traders continue to bet against the

prevailing uptrend being liquidated as a

result just as I covered shout out to

the glass note team for this beautiful

chart remember we are right there in

terms of a realized cap everybody that's

another new record Another new all-time

high in

addition in terms of daily volume the

total volume of Bitcoin deposits and

withdrawals to exchanges has continued

to expand reaching a staggering 5.57

billion in Daily volume flowing in and

out of exchanges that's why coinbase

went down yesterday and rivaling

activity scen November

2020 uh 2020

202 2021 alltime high if I'm not

mistaken yes 2022 was a bad year so

let's talk about another thing which is

super interesting as well shout out to

Edward Snowden I did touch in this a few

days ago but it was nice to see Ryan

selus jump in on it too Edward Snowden

had a prediction a national government

will be revealed this year to have been

buying Bitcoin the modern replacement

for monetary Gold without having

disclose that fact publicly okay I think

we know who this is this could be Mr 100

we're not sure but there than now the

14th biggest wallet by my calculations

somebody is stacking this stuff fast

Ryan celus jumped on this thread and he

said the Saudis buy a massive Trove of

Bitcoin hypothetically we don't know

exactly who it is and they announce

before us politicians can pass industry

crippling legislation and they say the

Saudis say to the US if you destroy our

bags we're not friends anymore

Checkmate okay

it's Game Theory but the game theory is

happening all over the world at the same

time in many different places this thing

is as hard as can be so again we're

still early remember what Hal said right

here okay we're still early hope we got

that now let's crunch the ETF numbers

and then we're going to do one little

chart that's also very important that

shows you how early we are day 33

there's too much of night chart to see

so we'll skip it but the good news is

record breaking day we have never had

such a high day you can see black rock

through the moon day 33 Okay biggest Day

Ever despite as well a big dumpage of

nearly a quarter of a billion dollars

from gbtc that's the green line at the

bottom and they're just shrinking like

there's nobody business but that's dcg

once dcg is flushed once that turd is

gone expect extreme hardness to kick in

and we're close like quarter of a

billion yesterday there's not much left

in the dcg bag in addition we have the

best money flow Day Ever from 33 days

net positive

6734

million that's over 2/3 of a billion

dollars into just n

ETFs okay and that's net actually is

more going into the ETFs because

of the dumpage from gbtc in addition up

and to the right still the red line

focus on that you can see the actual

cumulative is really big cumulatives on

the left hand side it's nearly 8

billion into these puppies net of gbtc

and inflows into the nine double the

gbtc outflow right now because you got

to take all the absorption from gbtc

plus all the net positive flow into the

new ones and they are now double that's

the first time we've seen that happen as

well you can see the big gorilla 7

billion uh for Black Rock five billion

for Fidelity and then the rest got two

in the billy club bitb and Arc are the

two other billionaire clubs the rest are

just kind of nothing Burgers but they

still add up quite a bit too in addition

327,000 Bitcoin are now in these new

ETFs

327,000 they completely smoked sailor's

bag of

193,000 and again Black Rock over 7

billion Fidelity over 5 billion all in

just 33 days and the most important

thing is we just had the biggest Day

Ever yesterday which is indicative of

the the volume we saw too now let's look

at exactly how many Bitcoin were pulled

and remember the higher the Bitcoin

price goes the number of Bitcoin pulled

from the system goes down but remember

when they started 13,4 400 the price of

Bitcoin is about 40,000 now

10,772 were pulled from the system

yesterday but the price was over

62k that's the difference very big very

up and to the right this thing is not

slowing down as the price of Bitcoin

goes up though the amount that they pull

from the system will shrink but remember

48 days away the having it's going to be

nuts all right time for a quick chart

I'll let you all go thank you as well

everybody for coming I see B man out

there in

Dez down there in Namibia Etc let's go

this is the top and bottom indicator and

the P Cycle top which has been

absolutely Pitch Perfect in identifying

tops and bottoms of Bitcoin Cycles so

this is

a the blue line is the Bitcoin price and

I only went back to 2017 it's on the

daily and the tab modelist is showing

the P Cycle top now at the very top the

red shad is the top and bottom of the

pie cycle top all right the very top of

the P Cycle top is at the top middle

Green Arrow and it absolutely nailed the

first top but remember as I always say

the second top was manipulated

everything was manipulated back then

because of the nefarious players that

have all been flushed from the system

and are happily in jail where they

belong um but if you look at the bottom

also the bottom nailed the bottom back

in August September time frame

2022 and we had another further no that

was that's pretty much close to the

bottom there now the point is a lot of

people are concerned now that Tabby Pi

cycle top is incoming no it is not we're

not even halfway there so if you look at

where we are today in terms of price

we're about to break a new all-time high

super close and at the same time Pi

cycle is not even halfway up so

everybody we are in very good shape

don't be concerned that the Market's

getting toppy we have a long long way to

go and we have unprecedented money flow

everybody so thank you all for coming

subscribe to the channel thank you to

every patreon appreciate you all thank

you to the mods in the chat and shout

out to Joseph as well see you all later

everybody

[Music]

bye-bye