The World is NOT Ready & Beware Bitcoin Trap

Summary

The video discusses the current state of the bitcoin market, analyzing price fluctuations, trading data, and factors driving demand. It highlights record investment flows into bitcoin ETFs like BlackRock and Fidelity, contrasting this with declining Grayscale volumes. Also covered are leverage and liquidation trends, the impact of large OTC desk supply depletion, implications of the upcoming halving, scarcity dynamics using stock-to-flow analysis, and bitcoin's long-term growth potential relative to global wealth.

Takeaways

• 😲 Bitcoin had a big price drop recently but quickly recovered - this is just normal volatility caused by leverage and market makers wanting to hit stop losses.
• 👍 Bitcoin's stock to flow ratio will soon be 1/3 that of gold - meaning extreme scarcity.
• ⏳ There are only 48 days until the next Bitcoin halving event which will decrease new supply by 50%.
• 📈 Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) saw record inflows yesterday, with BlackRock leading.
• 😎 Edward Snowden predicts a national government will be revealed as a big Bitcoin buyer this year.
• 🔒 On chain data shows long term holders accumulating and low supply on OTC markets.
• 😀 Bitcoin price action is still far from the peak of historical market cycles according to on chain analysis.
• 👀 A back of the envelope calc shows Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if it captured some global wealth.
• 💰 Mr. 100 wallet is buying over 100% of new Bitcoin supply daily showing intense demand.
• 🇧🇷 BlackRock is launching a Bitcoin ETF in Brazil where there is high inflation and currency problems.

Q & A

What is the stock to flow model and why is it important for Bitcoin?

The stock to flow model measures the scarcity of an asset based on its existing stock and new production flow. It shows that Bitcoin is becoming exponentially more scarce over time, making it an attractive store of value like gold but with superior scarcity properties.

How much Bitcoin is left in OTC desks according to James Van Stratton's data?

According to James Van Stratton's data on Glassnode OTC desks, Bitcoin supply on OTC desks is at the lowest level seen in 5 years, indicating tightening supply.

Why did Bitcoin see a big price drop recently if demand is so high?

The price drop was likely triggered by market makers wanting to liquidate leveraged long positions to profit from the volatility before the price rebounds even higher due to strong underlying demand.

What is the predicted target price range for Bitcoin in the near term?

The predicted target zone for Bitcoin in technical analysis is between $58,000 to $60,000 based on it being an area where market makers can liquidate both longs and shorts for maximum profit.

How much Bitcoin have the new ETFs accumulated so far?

The new ETFs have accumulated over 327,000 Bitcoin worth over $20 billion in just 33 days, with BlackRock alone holding over $7 billion.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin halving that's happening soon?

The Bitcoin halving reduces the block reward miners receive by 50%, meaning new supply gets cut in half while demand continues rising, creating a supply shock.

What is the predicted value per Bitcoin if it captures a fraction of global wealth?

Estimates suggest each Bitcoin could be worth $10 million if Bitcoin captures even a fraction of total global wealth, indicating there is room for 100 million to 1 growth from current prices.

Who is the mystery whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying large amounts of Bitcoin?

The identity of the whale dubbed Mr. 100 buying blocks of 100 BTC daily is unknown, but speculation indicates it may be a national government secretly accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

What does the technical indicator suggest about Bitcoin being near a top?

According to PlanB's stock-to-flow model, the Pi cycle top indicator suggests Bitcoin is only about halfway through the current bull run, with significant room to grow before hitting a cycle top.

Why is Bitcoin unlikely to see major regulation in the near future?

Governments will be hesitant to ban Bitcoin because undisclosed state actors are likely quietly accumulating it as a strategic reserve asset and will retaliate if their holdings are threatened.