Marc Andreessen & Andrew Chen Talk Creative Computers

The a16z Podcast
19 Jun 202445:57

Summary

TLDR本视频剧本探讨了人工智能和加密货币等新兴技术所引发的道德恐慌,以及这些技术如何推动社会变革。讨论了游戏行业如何成为技术创新的前沿,包括AI在游戏开发和多媒体内容创造中的潜在影响。强调了开放源代码在AI发展中的重要性,并展望了游戏行业及其相关领域的未来,预测将出现更多由创始人驱动的、具有持久愿景和激进产品路线图的公司。

Takeaways

  • 🌐 世界在变化,技术如人工智能(AI)和加密货币正在不断发展,尽管伴随着道德恐慌和质疑。
  • 🔒 学术界正在探索如何突破现有技术限制,以促进创新,而不是仅仅限制它们。
  • 🎮 游戏行业是技术革新的前沿,例如GPU和3D技术最初都源于游戏行业。
  • 👨‍👧 家庭生活中,共同的游戏体验可以加强亲子关系,同时促进学习。
  • 📈 技术悲观主义者往往因为对新事物的恐惧和不理解而持保守态度,但历史上的道德恐慌很少成真。
  • 🛠️ 技术工具无论好坏,都将对社会产生影响,重要的是我们如何使用它们。
  • 💡 创新往往源于个人对技术的热爱和对改进现有产品的热情。
  • 📊 政府在推动大型创新项目方面的能力已经减弱,现代的创新更多来自私营部门。
  • 🚀 成功的创业公司往往需要超越初期的成功,建立起能够长期发展和创新的机构。
  • 🌐 游戏行业正处在技术、商业模式和应用领域的交汇点,预示着新的变革。
  • 🛑 过度监管可能会阻碍创新,如核能行业所示,而适度的监管可以促进健康发展。

Q & A

  • 为什么当前世界对人工智能(AI)和加密货币等技术存在巨大的道德恐慌?

    -新技术的出现往往会伴随着所谓的道德恐慌,人们担心这些新事物会对社会秩序造成破坏,甚至毁灭世界。这种现象在历史上对每项新技术的出现都有所体现,如电力照明、自行车、视频游戏等。当前对AI和加密货币的恐慌也是这种历史模式的延续。

  • 为什么说AI是一种全新的计算机类型?

    -传统的计算机是确定性的,需要精确的指令来执行任务,而AI代表了一种概率性的计算机,它可以基于概率生成不同的答案和内容,这种特性使得AI在创造性方面展现出与传统计算机完全不同的能力。

  • 在游戏行业中,为什么说现在的世界已经改变,并且正在改变?

    -游戏行业已经从单一的软件销售模式转变为提供长期、持续增长的平台模式,这些平台可以不断增加用户、内容和体验。此外,新技术的应用,如在线体验、用户生成内容、AI等,使得游戏体验更加丰富和复杂。

  • 为什么游戏行业对于创业者来说是一个有吸引力的领域?

    -游戏行业不仅可以提供娱乐和商业上的成功,还因其在应用新技术方面的前沿地位,为创业者提供了广阔的创新空间。此外,游戏行业的成功企业可以基于早期的成功建立起长期、有远见的产品研发路线图。

  • 为什么说游戏行业可能会对教育和其他领域产生影响?

    -游戏行业拥有将复杂和吸引人的元素结合在一起的能力,这种能力可以应用于教育和其他领域,创造出既有趣又有效的学习体验。例如,通过游戏化的方式,可以使学习变得更加吸引人和有效。

  • 为什么说娱乐不仅仅是无关紧要的小事?

    -娱乐是生活的重要组成部分,它为人们提供了乐趣和享受,有助于提高生活质量。游戏、电影等娱乐形式是人们生活中不可或缺的,它们可以带来快乐和放松。

  • 为什么说健康护理行业需要像游戏一样吸引人?

    -健康护理行业需要转型,从被动治疗转变为主动健康。这意味着需要创造出能够鼓励和支持人们健康生活方式的系统,而这种系统需要像游戏一样具有吸引力,能够激发人们的兴趣和参与度。

  • 为什么说新技术可能会使现有的产品或服务变得过时?

    -技术的重大转变可能会导致全新的产品或服务模式出现,这些新模式可能会完全改变市场和用户需求,使得现有的产品或服务无法满足新的市场需求,从而变得过时。

  • 为什么创业者需要构建自己的政策团队和政治项目?

    -随着公司的成长和行业的发展,创业者可能会面临政策和监管方面的挑战。构建政策团队和政治项目可以帮助公司更好地应对这些挑战,保护公司的利益,并在政策制定过程中发出自己的声音。

  • 为什么说AI的发展需要开源?

    -开源可以为AI的发展提供灵活性和创新的动力。通过开源,更多的人可以访问和使用AI技术,促进技术的改进和新应用的创造。此外,开源也有助于防止大型公司对技术的垄断。

  • 为什么说AI技术的发展可能会带来新的艺术形式?

    -AI技术具有创造性,能够生成新的内容和体验。这种创造性可能会催生出与传统电影、游戏不同的新型艺术形式,这些形式可能会更加个性化、互动化,为用户提供全新的体验。

Outlines

00:00

🌏 世界变革与技术恐慌

本段讨论了世界不断变化的现实,以及围绕人工智能和加密货币等新兴技术的道德恐慌。演讲者表达了对技术突破的兴奋,特别是对AI的看法,认为它是一种全新的计算机平台,将彻底改变我们对技术的理解。同时,提到了与Mark的初次会面,以及随后与他的儿子JJ在游戏上的共同兴趣,展现了技术在个人生活中的作用。

05:01

🎮 游戏作为技术进步的催化剂

此段深入探讨了游戏行业如何成为技术创新的温床,举例说明了GPU和3D技术的发展与游戏行业的关系。演讲者分享了他与儿子在游戏上的亲子互动,以及游戏如何成为教育和学习的工具,特别是在数学、物理和计算机科学方面。此外,还讨论了游戏行业的市场现象,以及它如何推动技术迅速普及至大众市场。

10:02

📚 技术悲观主义与历史视角

在这一段中,演讲者讨论了新技术伴随的道德恐慌现象,举例说明了从电灯到自行车,再到视频游戏,每项技术的出现都曾引起社会恐慌。他指出,尽管存在恐慌,但历史证明,大多数新技术最终都为社会带来了积极的影响。此外,还提到了不同代际对技术的不同态度,以及这种态度如何影响社会对新技术的接受程度。

15:04

🔍 政府在技术创新中的角色

本段探讨了政府在推动技术创新方面的作用,对比了历史上的曼哈顿计划和阿波罗计划与现代的加州高速铁路项目,指出政府在大型项目中的效率和执行力已经大不如前。演讲者认为,由于顶尖人才更倾向于在私营部门工作,政府难以复制过去的成功。此外,还讨论了政府监管对创新的潜在负面影响,尤其是在核能领域的例子。

20:04

🛠️ 创业者的政治参与与政策倡导

此段强调了创业者在政治参与和政策倡导方面的重要性。演讲者提到,尽管创业者的主要职责是建立公司,但在某些情况下,特别是在面对行业特有的监管挑战时,建立政策团队和政治计划是必要的。举例说明了大型科技公司如何通过游说活动来巩固其市场地位,以及新兴公司如何需要对抗这种不平等的竞争环境。

25:04

🎨 游戏行业的创新与挑战

本段讨论了游戏行业的创新机会和所面临的挑战,特别是AI技术如何影响游戏开发和用户体验。演讲者指出,游戏行业不仅要关注娱乐价值,还要注意其在全球市场中的定位和政策环境。同时,强调了游戏行业的创新不仅限于游戏本身,还包括了用户生成内容和元宇宙等新兴平台的发展。

30:05

🧠 AI作为新型计算机的崛起

在这一段中,演讲者将AI视为一种新型计算机,它与传统的确定性计算机不同,是一种概率性计算机,能够创造和生成内容。他讨论了AI的这种创造性如何引发了一系列哲学和实践上的讨论,以及AI在商业和客户服务中的应用,例如航空公司和汽车销售的案例。此外,还提到了对AI进行'越狱'的兴奋,以及对AI未来发展的乐观态度。

35:06

🏗️ 平台转变与创业机会

此段探讨了技术转变时的创业机会,特别是当平台发生根本性变化时,旧有的产品和商业模式可能会变得过时。演讲者通过Photoshop和AI图像编辑的比较,说明了在新平台世界中,传统的图像编辑方式可能会被AI生成的图像完全取代。同时,讨论了大型AI模型和小型本地模型的潜在市场,以及开放源代码在AI发展中的重要性。

40:08

🌟 投资游戏行业的战略与愿景

本段中,演讲者分享了对游戏行业的投资战略和愿景,包括对游戏作为长期平台的看重,以及技术进步如何为游戏行业带来新的机会。他还提到了创业者的动机和目标,以及a16z如何支持这些创业者建立持久且有影响力的公司。此外,还讨论了游戏行业在教育和健康等领域的潜在应用。

45:08

🎉 游戏行业的未来与创业者的角色

在最后一段中,演讲者对游戏行业的未来进行了展望,强调了创业者在塑造这一未来中的关键作用。他希望看到游戏公司能够成为具有远见和创新精神的独立机构,能够进行大规模的技术开发和产品规划。同时,也提到了娱乐的价值,以及游戏在提供乐趣和积极生活体验中的重要性。

Mindmap

Keywords

💡人工智能(AI)

人工智能是指由人造机器所表现出来的智能,它能够执行通常需要人类智能才能完成的任务,如视觉识别、语言理解等。在视频中,AI被看作一种全新的计算机形态,具有创造性和概率性,能够生成内容和提供不同的答案,这与以往的确定性计算机形成对比。例如,Alaska Airlines使用AI进行客户服务,AI创造性地为顾客提供了不存在的慰问政策。

💡加密货币

加密货币是一种基于密码学原理的数字货币,它通过分布式账本技术,如区块链,来确保交易的安全性和匿名性。视频中提到了围绕AI和加密货币的巨大道德恐慌,这表明了这些新兴技术在社会中的争议性和影响力。

💡虚拟现实(VR)

虚拟现实是一种计算机技术,可以创建和体验虚拟环境,使用户沉浸其中。视频中提到VR作为游戏行业的一个例子,说明技术如何推动新体验的发展,并且VR和AR(增强现实)是当前明显的杀手级应用。

💡平台转变

平台转变指的是技术或商业模式发生根本性变化,导致原有平台被新的平台所取代。视频中提到,像Photoshop加上AI图像编辑与Mid Journey或Dolly这样的平台转变,将会彻底改变我们对图像编辑的认识。

💡道德恐慌

道德恐慌是指社会对某一新技术或现象的集体担忧和反对,通常伴随着对其潜在负面影响的过度关注。视频中讨论了新技术如AI和加密货币所引发的道德恐慌,以及历史上对电灯、自行车等的类似反应。

💡游戏化

游戏化是指将游戏设计元素、游戏思维和游戏机制应用于非游戏场景,以提高参与度和动机。视频中提到游戏技能和心态可能被应用于教育、健康等领域,创造出既有趣又有效的新体验。

💡自适应系统

自适应系统是指能够根据环境变化或用户行为进行自我调整的系统。在视频中,AI被描述为一种自适应系统,能够根据用户的输入生成不同的输出,这种概率性计算机与传统的确定性计算机不同。

💡开源

开源指的是软件的源代码可以被公众查看、修改和增强的软件许可模式。视频中强调了开源在AI领域的重要性,它允许更广泛的社区参与创新,并有助于防止大型技术公司对技术的垄断。

💡技术转型

技术转型涉及到技术的根本性变化,通常会导致行业格局的重塑。视频中讨论了游戏行业如何通过在线体验、用户生成内容、AI等技术转型,从而创造出全新的游戏体验和商业模式。

💡创新

创新是指创造新的或改进现有的方法、产品或服务。视频中提到了创新在游戏行业中的重要性,以及如何通过创新来开发新的游戏形式、教育工具和健康解决方案。

💡平台游戏

平台游戏是一种视频游戏类型,玩家通常控制一个可以在屏幕上跳跃和移动的角色,以完成各种关卡。视频中提到了像Minecraft和Roblox这样的平台游戏,它们不仅仅是一次性的体验,而是可以长期增长和扩展的平台。

Highlights

世界已经发生了变化,并且正在持续变化,我们尝试进一步改变它。

围绕人工智能和加密货币存在巨大的道德恐慌。

学者们正在尝试破解这些技术,我对此感到非常兴奋。

AI是一种新型的计算机,需要我们重新定义它的概念。

与儿子JJ共享的游戏体验和连接。

游戏行业是许多先进技术的发源地,如GPU和3D技术。

VR和AR是目前明确的杀手级应用,特别是在游戏领域。

技术悲观主义者往往听起来更世故和明智,而乐观主义者则面临挑战。

技术道德恐慌的历史,每个新技术都曾被认为是邪恶的。

年轻一代将如何影响技术和社会的发展。

政府在技术创新中的角色正在改变,私营部门成为主要的创新驱动力。

对监管的过度反应可能抑制创新,核能行业是典型例子。

创业者应如何面对政策挑战和监管问题。

游戏行业特别需要关注AI等新技术的发展。

AI的兴起可能导致现有产品和行业的彻底变革。

开放源代码在AI发展中的重要性。

a16z对游戏行业的投资理念和对未来的展望。

游戏行业作为技术应用的前沿,对其他领域的潜在影响。

教育和健康领域可能会借鉴游戏行业的互动和参与方式。

对未来游戏行业及其技术影响的期待和愿景。

Transcripts

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our assessment is basically that the

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world has changed and the world has

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changed is changing and we're going to

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try to change it further now there's you

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know enormous moral Panic around Ai and

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another one around crypto and so forth

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and so it's just this constant kind of

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barrage of of negativity so all these

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academics now trying to figure out how

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to jailbreak these things and I just get

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so excited I'm just I'm just like I'm

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cheering on the jailbreaks I'm just so

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excited like the last thing I want is

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these things locked down like I want

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these things to be out there like doing

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all kinds of crazy stuff when I look at

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AI what I see is sort of a new kind of

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computer but every once in a while you

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get a you get a platform shift that's

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like dramatic enough where it basically

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means that you you both kind of can and

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have to reinvent from scratch the whole

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idea of what the thing is in the first

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place Mark I I don't know if if you

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remember the first time we met actually

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uh but we actually had a conversation

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about

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zingga you know because it was during

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the the whole Facebook platform we had

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we had lunch at hobes this was like your

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your favorite spot in in in palto many

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years later actually we were just

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talking about this uh you and your son

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JJ have continued to have gaming as part

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of part of your part of your experience

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part of your life that that you share

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and so tell us about what what what you

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guys do together and kind of your

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connection to gaming I've got an

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8-year-old uh just turned nine actually

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on Sunday um his his birthday present

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was a brand new razor gaming laptop uh

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and he levitated right out of his little

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shoes um so he's currently glued to it

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uh it was actually very impressed they

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got the 16-in screen because we want it

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to be portable but they have screens now

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up to I think they have one up to like

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20 Ines now so I'm sure that that'll be

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next year's present um so um yeah look I

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mean for those of you who don't have

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kids the great thing about having kids

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is that uh you as a parent you get to

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just like buy all the stuff that you

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always wanted as a kid um and uh you you

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you do it under you know the cover of

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like oh yeah you know this is for the

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kid um and then you bring it home and

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then you take it out and then you and

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then you you just you know basically

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play with it he's been through four

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waves of of of gaming enthusiasm and by

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the way these endure they're they're

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actually all enduring he goes back to

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the all but Minecraft was the first one

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um and then Roblox

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and then kbal space program and by the

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way we we're homeschooling and so he's

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doing like a ton of like along with this

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like a lot of math and and and physics

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and computer science and Rocket design

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you know with his science teacher and

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stuff like that so like herbal space

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programs turns out to be just like

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incredibly good for that and then um and

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then now recently factorio um and so he

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is building Empires on alien planets

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fighting bugs so I'm I'm holding back on

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that what's the new game is it uh hell

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divers hell divers 2 I'm holding back on

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Hell divers 2 for the moment but um I I

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will admit I have the little the as L

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it's just a matter of

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time well and gaming is you know um such

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a instrumental part of a lot of people's

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sort of personal experience with with

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technology and Computing um and and many

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folks get into into Tech you know many

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of my friends because they were you know

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pirating games uh you know trying to get

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work around all the shareware um you

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know restrictions in the 90s or you know

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kind of the the all the modern versions

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of that and one of the interesting

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things that's been observed is that you

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know gaming as an industry is is where a

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lot of these kind of alpha nerd

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Technologies whether it's gpus or 3D or

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avatars have been created what do you

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think of as kind of the canonical

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example of that um in your mind and and

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why do you think this happens kind of in

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in in the games industry in particular

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yeah yeah this is a really a super old

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Trend and so this this probably goes all

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the way back to probably space War uh

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which was like one of the first video

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games that was on I think time like time

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sharing mainframes back in like 19 1960

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or something so black and white you're

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playing it at University kind of thing

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right yeah like basically the minute you

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got interaction Computing you

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immediately got Gam

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um and then you know of course pong

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early on it's hard to remember like what

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a big breakthrough that was at the time

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it's like in the early '70s basically it

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was even pre-personal Computing I think

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is the idea of having a video an arcade

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an arcade game machine um and right The

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Story Goes that Nolan Bushnell you know

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built this founder Atari built built the

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first pong game and he put it in a pizza

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parlor Mountain View um and the owner of

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the pizza parlor called him up a day

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later and it's like yeah this thing's

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broken you know it's piece of junk get

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this thing out of here and he goes in

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and of course the problem is it's so

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jammed with quarters that it literally

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physically can't take quarters anymore

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um and so yeah there's this there's this

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this's this recurring phenomenon I I

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think it's a bunch of things I think one

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is just like you know it's it's as we

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say it's sort of I don't know uh use the

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term sometimes founder market fit um you

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know or people building for themselves

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um and so people who are super into

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computers you know tend to love gaming

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and they tend to want to build great

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games you know I think another part is

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just the the sort of the both the need

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and the opportunity to kind of really

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Jam the throttle forward on on what the

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raw capability is of whatever the

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technology is remember when 3D

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acceleration was new the minute you had

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that as a core capability it was just

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like what's the most sophisticated

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possible 3D game you could build and

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that happened before like all you

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started doing like CAD Cam and all these

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other things there's also a great thing

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about it which is game game games are

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mass Market phenomenon um especially

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these days and so it lets you drive

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price points down right it gives you

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like a direct sort of path like a real

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path uh to be able to take whatever the

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new capability is and drive it to the

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mass Market super fast and I I I full I

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fully expect this trend to continue and

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it's obviously what we're seeing with

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with AI right now yeah with AI by the

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way also mixed I mean look mixed reality

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you yeah VR VR VR both VR and AR like

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it's it's it's Crystal Clear the known

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killer apps right now are games like by

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by a very wide margin yeah well it seems

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like so much of VR has been marketed as

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sort of productivity and being able to

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do meetings and you know so on but all

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the data is saying that it's sort of you

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know High School High super high

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retention it's all it's all you know

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kids basically playing social social

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multiplayer yeah you know gaming well

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it's actually two it's two tiers like

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it's the G it's the game games you know

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to the EXT and then it's the right and

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then it's the social the social gaming

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environment but it's specifically right

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it's specifically the social gaming

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environments not just social

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environments yes yes the games are key

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to the experience that's right so so

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everyone in the audience has uh has read

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your your techno Optimist Manifesto you

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you had to write it because obviously

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most people for whatever reason don't

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seem to be optimists today why are there

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so many self-hating technologists like

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what what is the sort of um uh sort of

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root cause thank you yes yeah so so look

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so there's this recurring phenomenon in

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the history of of of new technologies

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which is every new technology tends to

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come with what's called called a moral

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Panic right and so a moral Panic is

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basically this term for basically

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there's a new thing and so therefore

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it's evil and bad and it will destroy

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the world um and and if you go back in

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time it's basically every single new

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technology and so like there was a huge

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controversy over the introduction of

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electric lighting because it was going

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to like you know completely disturb

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nature there was huge controversy around

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bicycles bicycles were a super

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controversial technology when they first

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came out because it was the first time

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young people could actually Voyage to

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like could easily get to like nearby

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towns and Villages for dating purposes

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and that really like upset people um the

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uh actually the magazines at the time

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this like 1860s 1870s the popular

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magazines at the time actually had this

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thing they they did this whole moral

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Panic around they this thing called

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bicycle face um and there those articles

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about how if you got on a bicycle and

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rode it uh you you the exertion required

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would cause your face you know to

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scrunch up and then and then and then if

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you run the bicycle too long your face

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would freeze like that um and then you

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know looks not K there was a massive

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moral Panic around video games I mean it

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was just it was super clear I mean it's

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just super clear like first person

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shooters you know especially when when

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that Coline tragedy happened it's when

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you know that whole thing went just like

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completely PA shaped but it was this

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like incredible incredible thing of like

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we're training an entire generation of

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killers and of course what happened was

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video games took off and actually you

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know for the for the next 30 Years uh

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actual you know violent crime in the US

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actually dropped Like a Rock so if

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anything the correlation was the reverse

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uh and so there's just this tendency and

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now now there's you know enormous moral

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Panic around Ai and another one around

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crypto and so forth and so it's just

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this constant kind of barrage of of

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negativity and I think it's just

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something you know I don't know it's

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it's like I guess a fair-minded person

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would say it's like fair enough you know

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the thing with new Technologies is they

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they actually do change the social order

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you know they do actually change how

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Society works and so you know maybe

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there should be some societal kind of

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screening mechanism for kind of deciding

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whether these new technologies are good

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ideas or not and so maybe that's the

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generous explanation the sort of

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ungenerous explanation is just people

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panic and freak out and look and then it

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always sounds more sophisticated to be

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negative than positive right it's like

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the positive person gets accused of

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being polanish and wide-eyed and you

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know immature and you know you know not

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cynical enough and then the pessimistic

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person always sounds world you know

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World weary and wise and these are just

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like constant scops and they're just

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like constant scops being kind of played

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on us and by us and at us and then you

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know look there's there's a choice and

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this is you know why I wrote that wrote

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the manifesto like then there's a choice

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of like how we think about these things

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right um and you know it's really easy

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to let people talk you into thinking

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that something bad is happening or

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you're doing something bad or there's

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something dangerous and it's you know it

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takes real force of will to go up

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against that and say no actually this is

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going to be this is actually going to be

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really good and and it's and by the way

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it's not that new technologies don't

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have negative consequences like you know

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new technologies are tools and they're

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going to have both negative and positive

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consequences but there's just such a

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rich history of the moral Panic

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predicted societal doom and then it

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actually turned out everything you know

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overwhelmingly on net was fine and I I

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think that will continue to be what

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happens and and you you studied this

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quite closely it it seems like it's

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unusual to me that that the moral Panic

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not only is originating in you know um

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uh places outside of tech but weirdly

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like inside of tech as well you know

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which is which is my point about the

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self-hating technologists like you know

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like like why why is that a thing oh the

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Millennials um

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no no no

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genz Millennials the genz yes gen Z gen

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Z has to save us um you know I think

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there actually is a little bit of a

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generational thing to it you know the

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Boomers were like super socially

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activated you know in the 60s and 70s

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with like you know the anti-war protest

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at the time and the hippie movement and

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everything and got like super into like

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you know politics and super animated and

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then you know Jen I'm Gen X and Gen X we

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were all sort of cynical and Blas we

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were like the reverse of of the Boomers

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we were like uh we were just like

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disengaged and we were Slackers um and

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we we weren't going to we weren't going

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to take this stuff seriously uh and then

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the Millennials you know look the

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Millennials just activated like they

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activated what have Millennials

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experienced 2001 you know 911 2008

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financial crisis you know 2016 let's

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just say a dramatic change in American

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politics um and so yeah so the the

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Millennials are just activated um and

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our industry is a very large number of

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very young people who are very smart

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very idealistic uh very hardworking very

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conscientious very motivated and they

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they just and they tend to take things

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really seriously and it's the superpower

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of of that as a set and but it's also

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they take lots of things too seriously

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um and so I you know there's just a

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broader kind of thing going on I I think

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gen Z is going to be fascinating and

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then the generation after it there's

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this interesting book by this

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psychologist named Jee twinge and she

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goes through all the kind of charts of

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like all the behavior and it's actually

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the Gen Z is actually looking is looking

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quite a bit different in a number of

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respects um and then you know the kids

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coming up behind it's going to be weird

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so if you grew up pre-

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internet like there's one everybody's

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eyes like oh social media is really like

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you know basically screwing around with

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the kids and it's like well I don't know

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like actually the person most prone to

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be really screwed around with social

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media would seem to me to be somebody

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with no mimetic defenses at all which is

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like a boomer right and so you take like

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somebody raised on Like Walter kronite

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and you like inject them onto Facebook

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and like right you know they have no

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ability to cope with it whatsoever right

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um you know Millennials are kind of in

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the middle you know Gen X Millennials

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you know I'm still you know Gen X was

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like pre- internet right um and so you

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know we're still acclimated everything

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point being like gen Z and then you know

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the Gen whatever it's going to be called

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The Generation my son is in like gen

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alpha or whatever it's going to be

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called you know they're they're just

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going to grow up having had like

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basically the full diet of like crazy

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internet basically scop basically pop

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politics just crazy Bonkers bananas like

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stuff coming in you know the the level

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of sophistication the kids have around

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like memes you know is just off sharts

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right um and so new generations are

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going to be like much better at dealing

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with this whole media politics you know

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kind of Matrix is kind of unfolding um

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so yeah well you also have I mean I

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think growing up you know in the

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internet now you also have like an

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infinite platter of subcultures that you

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can you can be part of and you know and

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that's that's a lot of you know very

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independent uh you know viewpoints

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compared to a world where we have you

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know the X number of uh you know

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approved new sources and you know and so

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on yeah um you know in your essay you

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you talk um quite a lot about some of

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the negative impacts of overregulation

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and what's happened in nuclear and of

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course the current current ongoing

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discussion about about AI um now in the

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past we've seen the government actually

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um sponsor these very big innovation Pro

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you know projects whether you're you

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know talking about NASA or um what what

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does a modern kind of Protek political

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position actually you know look like and

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what what's the right way to engage

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government in in all this yeah so people

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look back you know this movie

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appenheimer that just swept the Oscars

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which is of course extraordinary movie

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you know tells sort of the Manhattan

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Project story um and then there's you

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know the famous Apollo project you know

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people look back on that and my friend

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Peter in particular looks back on those

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projects and says wow like those were

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kind of great achievements you know

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going to the moon and you know winning

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World War II and like and you had this

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like massive government organized top

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down you know Oppenheimer General Groves

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like you know military project you know

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they build new cities in like three days

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and you know they get all the world's

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leading physicists in one place and

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everybody's you know working on a single

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goal and it's just this amazing

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achievement and it's like why can't we

play12:50

do that anymore and and and with that

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sort of the deeper question is why can't

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the government do that anymore and the

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answer is just like I that was an

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artifact of its time um in particular

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you know the Manhattan Pro was in the

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40s Apollo was in the 60s Mo what modern

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Venture Capital startups as we know and

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understand it you sort of started in the

play13:05

70s and so I I I think a big thing there

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is just adverse selection uh the kinds

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of people who can run projects like that

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just don't work for the government

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anymore um they're in the private sector

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um and so it just that that Avenue is

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not available and If if you need if you

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need to reinforce your your views on

play13:19

this just take a look at the California

play13:20

highspeed Rail Project um which is now

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10 billion it's over 10 billion in spend

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um with uh zero ground broken like not

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even an inch of highs speed it's like

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the California highspeed rail prevention

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program um and I think they're going to

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spend like $100 billion doar and like

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literally not building anything like

play13:39

it's quite amazing well all these are

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measured by cost per you know mile or

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whatever and what happens when you

play13:43

divide by zero divide PS exactly so well

play13:46

and you know there's these Bart

play13:47

extensions happening it's even San Jose

play13:49

which is a more rational city than San

play13:50

Francisco and I think it's up to like I

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don't know the there's like this mov

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it's like this Doppler effect where

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every year that goes by you add like

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another billion dollars to the cost and

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then project out the dead you know the

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the finished date another 3 years so

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it's just this project that's just kind

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of kind kind of go to infinity and so

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like it's just I I just think those days

play14:05

are over it's just not happening and so

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what happens and by and by the way

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anybody basically smart I've ever run

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into in the government basically says

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the same thing it's like the Pentagon

play14:12

we're not going to build new weapon

play14:13

systems in the Pentagon we're we're

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going to it's going to be it's going to

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be private sector and you know therefore

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companies like andril uh are paler and

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then the relationship between the

play14:21

government and private sector is just

play14:22

always a little bit fraught right

play14:24

because there's basically two ways to

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regulate things there's basically one

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one way to regulate things is sort of

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the traditional American Way which is um

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you know everything is allowed except

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that which is prohibited um is sort of

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one approach to law and then there's

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kind of the classic European approach

play14:36

which is the opposite which is

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everything is prohibited except for that

play14:39

which is specifically permitted right

play14:41

and if you the EU is just passing this

play14:43

AI law right now it's going to be a

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version of that right like if yes you

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can do AI in the in in Europe if you get

play14:49

approval from the government ahead of

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time which they won't give you um and

play14:52

then you know we applied that method in

play14:54

the US for nuclear power right we we

play14:56

basically decided that nuclear power was

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prohibited by default right um the

play15:00

nuclear power story is tremendously

play15:01

illustrative of this so uh Richard Nixon

play15:03

in the early 1970s implemented two

play15:06

programs in parallel uh one was a a

play15:08

program called project Independence uh

play15:10

which was to build a thousand new

play15:11

civilian nuclear power plants in the US

play15:13

by the Year 1980 um and the goal you

play15:16

know from the name project Independence

play15:17

was for America to be energy independent

play15:19

from the rest of the world so number one

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to be able to pull completely out of the

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Middle East like no more of that um and

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then number two uh have like basically

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infinite clean you know clean zero

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carbon zero carbon emissions coming from

play15:29

nuclear power plants um you'll notice

play15:31

that didn't happen

play15:33

um none of that happened um because his

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other program was called the nuclear

play15:38

Regulatory Commission um and their job

play15:40

was to prevent that from happening um

play15:42

and they did not approve a new nuclear

play15:43

power plant designed for 40 years wow um

play15:46

and so they they implemented sort of

play15:48

again this this this other form and so

play15:50

you know at that level it's like okay

play15:52

then we're you know we're going to get

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what we want um and you know we we as a

play15:55

society have to decide which way we want

play15:57

this to go um you know everything about

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how the American government operates is

play16:01

oriented towards trying to switch more

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and more to the sort of classically

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European model to try to you know

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basically choke off avenues for for

play16:07

private Innovation you know look a a lot

play16:09

of people think that's you know those

play16:11

ideas are good because you know the risk

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like what if things go wrong but the you

play16:14

know the consequences are very very

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severe because it's logic if the public

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sector can't do it the private sector is

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not allowed to do it then it's not going

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to happen and so look these These are

play16:22

really big questions and of course it's

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hard you know these are not super like

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you know flashy issues that are easy for

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a politician to get up in front of

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people and talk about you know this

play16:29

isn't going to draw as much press

play16:30

attention ever you know as sort of the

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the more politically sort of

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inflammatory topics but you know this i'

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say is a very serious underlying

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topic how how do you think about when

play16:39

founders read your

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Manifesto um you know as soon as it came

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out I mean you know there was such a

play16:45

ground swell of of support and um you

play16:48

know all the builders on social media

play16:50

you know you know talking talking

play16:51

through this and um how do you think

play16:53

about what Founders can do or should do

play16:56

if they if they agree with everything

play16:57

that you're saying what's the next next

play16:59

level after showing social media support

play17:01

and then and then and and and and then

play17:03

what after that yeah so first just look

play17:04

this social media support is actually

play17:06

super helpful so part of is just like

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what are people proud to stand for right

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um and if if you know I don't know to

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stand for something you have to be like

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a renegade and you have to be like ready

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to just get attacked by everybody and to

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just have all your friends think that

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you're you know being stupid or evil

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like that that's hard for people and so

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the the more people who actually stand

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up and basically say that they have that

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they have a position the more socially

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acceptable it is for everybody else to

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do it um so that that you know that's

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one um two is you know I I wouldn't

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encourage Founders to get super involved

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in in politics because Founders have

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full-time jobs but you know there there

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are politicians who are on who are more

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on the right side of these things and

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others and you know they're worth

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supporting um and we have a we we we

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we've launched sort of a really

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ambitious political program uh in the

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last year because we we've just had it

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with people basically taking free shots

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on goal on startups and so um we're

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trying to support a lot of the

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politicians on the right sides of these

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issues and I think that's something that

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people might might choose to do um and

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then third is look at at some point like

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especially if you're an IND industry

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where you're going to run into this kind

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of thing you know I think it is worth

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thinking about it you know not for the

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first few years but as your company gets

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built out I mean I I think more more

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companies especially more young

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companies um in in our industry are

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going to have to step up and like build

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policy groups policy teams and political

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programs and have packs and and you know

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have put real effort into this quite

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honestly I mean part of what's happening

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is Big Tech is against us um there

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there's a basically a lot of the

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political issues now are a civil war

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inside the tech industry where the big

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tech companies are lobbying very

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aggressively for what they regulatory

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capture so they're lobbing very

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aggressively to have basically laws and

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rules that only they can comply with um

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you know because they've got Legions of

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you know lawyers and and and compliance

play18:36

people and so forth to be able to comply

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with you know all kinds of complicated

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rules they're in Washington you know all

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the time and have been for several years

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now basically lobbying to have

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regulatory barriers such that they can

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function uh but startups can't um and I

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think more more more young companies are

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just going to have to confront that

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directly yeah well and and I think in in

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the games industry in particular it's

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it's a it's an interesting one because I

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think you know many of the folks here

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many of the folks in the audience are

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are you know they're like oh I'm I'm I'm

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part of this industry that's just about

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making things that are fun like all the

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stuff seems so far away and you know I

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think one of the things that I would

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remind everyone of is like look you know

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everything that's happening in the games

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industry around AI is going to

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absolutely affect you know all of us

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it's also gaming as a global industry so

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you're already seeing a lot of

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interesting things happening in the

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geopolitical sphere um you know how

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active can you know a tensent or a net

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or you know one of those be and you know

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how easy or hard is it to um launch the

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products in in Europe there's a whole

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number of kind of consumer safety

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Provisions you know you were just

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talking about and then you know and then

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a lot of the most interesting new

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platforms like um you know ufn and

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Roblox which are user generated you know

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content platforms you know all all the

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metaverse work that's also happening as

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well um you know all of those kind of

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fall into user generated you know this

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whole War that's happened o over over

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social media and user generated content

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because you know in the end it's like as

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soon as users are get to actually make

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things

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and express you know how they feel then

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then all of a sudden it's it's not it's

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not that different from from social

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media so I I actually you know I think

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one one of the most interesting things

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about the games industry is that it's

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actually I think a lot of the issues um

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you know Mark that you mentioned in the

play20:12

manifesto are actually quite close as

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issues in the industry it's not it's not

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like a far away thing yeah and and there

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are gaming companies that have hit this

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stuff directly uh in the past um yeah

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social media companies all thought that

play20:22

they were creating like fun things for

play20:23

people to play like Twitter is what what

play20:25

did your cat have for breakfast and if

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you were like a fan of Twitter you'd be

play20:28

like wow it's great to be able to talk

play20:29

about my cat had for breakfast and if

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you thought Twitter otherwise you just

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thought Twitter was stupid because it

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didn't matter when it it was irrelevant

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well my favorite example is Facebook got

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just tons of you know it's just like

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this is the most trivial stupid useless

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you know thing that doesn't matter you

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know Facebook there was almost a deal

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for Facebook to get bought by Yahoo

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early on and I remember a certain very

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prominent tech journalist um might be

play20:49

flogging a book right now um uh said at

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the time she said she said Mark

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Zuckerberg should take the billion

play20:55

dollar Yahoo deal you know and Facebook

play20:57

stes worth like 1.2 trillion so she said

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Facebook should take the the billion

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doll Yahoo acquisition quote and and and

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run away as fast as his little flip

play21:04

flops can carry him um right um and and

play21:07

it was just like her just like absolute

play21:09

dismissal that this stuff would ever

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matter and then basically within like

play21:11

five years it was like Facebook is like

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the living demon incarnate on Earth and

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destroying everything right it went from

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like useless to evil in one step right

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you know the headline you never it's

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never just like oh this is kind of cool

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right like that's never the story like

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this is kind of useful some people like

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it it's either like pointless or

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evil um

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and so and there there look there is is

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a history in games like this and a lot

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gaming companies in the past have been

play21:33

through this and so yeah it's worth it's

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worth at least paying attention to if

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you were like uh you know hypothetically

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you were exiled for a few years and you

play21:41

had a team of you know a couple dozen

play21:42

people to to work on any any problem of

play21:45

your choosing um you know what what area

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would you would you end up so I should

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start by saying I have not pressure

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tested the following idea at all I

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haven't done any of the things that we

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require our Founders to do before we

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fund them uh in terms of actually

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thinking anything through so this is

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just me cting because I'm not I'm not

play21:59

going to do it there is something I

play22:00

think super super fascinating at the

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it's it's at the it's at the convergence

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point of let's just say immersive

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entertainment or experiences and you

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know and I think VR AR is one version of

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that but also just like immersive worlds

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um on traditional screens um the

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intersection of that and then and then

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and then the intersection with with with

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AI you know we're doing a lot of work in

play22:20

AI a lot of work in gaming a lot of work

play22:22

in media and so I I spend a lot a fair

play22:23

amount of time talking to folks in

play22:24

gaming you know thinking about Ai and

play22:26

games I spend also a fair amount of time

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in in um talking to people in like the

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entertainment industry about like AI in

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movies and you know TV and things like

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that and of course that's you know quite

play22:34

controversial already um the Assumption

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in a lot of these conversations just oh

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AI is a new way to create game assets or

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AI is a new way to do special effects in

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movies and I I kind of Wonder it's like

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actually is there actually a new art

play22:45

form here right that's actually not a

play22:47

game and not a movie but like it's

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something in the middle and it's

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something that basically it's like an

play22:52

experience that's like totally tailored

play22:53

to the user an experience that never

play22:55

ends everything is generated on the Fly

play22:57

you know with a level sort of synergy

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but synergistic kind of you know

play23:00

feedback loop between between the user

play23:02

and the system um and you know the

play23:04

metaphor some people have used for this

play23:05

is you know you know dreams like is is

play23:07

there is there like a new medium here

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which is basically creating dreams it

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seems kind of obvious because if you can

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if you if an AI can basically learn and

play23:13

generate content then that seems like a

play23:15

straightforward thing but what's

play23:16

interesting is like there there is no

play23:17

that's not a movie it's a very different

play23:19

than a movie because by the way it might

play23:20

go for 5,000 hours right um and it might

play23:22

be seated by a human creative but you

play23:24

know it might then it might then be very

play23:26

uh you know related to specific user

play23:27

movies aren't like that it might be like

play23:29

a game but it's also not quite a game

play23:30

because maybe you're not playing it

play23:31

maybe you're experiencing it or maybe

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it's you know maybe it's some other you

play23:34

react to it or live in it in a uh in a

play23:36

different way and there's there's no

play23:37

precedent for this there's no model

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there's no company that does this the

play23:40

movie studios aren't going to do it

play23:42

because they they just make movies the

play23:43

game Studio companies aren't going to do

play23:45

it because they make games and so I

play23:46

think there might be something new oh

play23:47

and then of course and then of course

play23:48

you know there's the single player

play23:49

version but then there's of course the

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mind-blowing you know ones which are the

play23:52

multiplayer massively you know massively

play23:54

multiplayer dreams like what is that

play23:56

right right yeah I think I think the new

play23:57

the new form formats are definitely

play23:59

interesting always because you could

play24:00

imagine when you know uh user generated

play24:03

content and getting content online when

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YouTube comes out um in uh uh you know

play24:08

gets popular in 2005 2006 you might have

play24:11

thought oh well one day all the you know

play24:13

content creators are going to make

play24:14

movies and put them on YouTube but

play24:16

that's actually not what happened you

play24:17

know they actually ended up making all

play24:19

these uh you know Vlogs and all these

play24:21

shows and um you know all these sort of

play24:23

new native formats that exist only on on

play24:26

on YouTube um and then it turns out that

play24:28

watching you know an hour of uh you know

play24:32

10c you know uh video clips is actually

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more engaging than the the the Hollywood

play24:38

format you know of that and so in I

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think in the same way just as uh it

play24:42

might be easy to think about um just

play24:45

cost savings for um for for for gaming

play24:48

from AI that that you know doing

play24:50

something that's completely a new format

play24:51

like like what you're talking about sort

play24:52

of sort of feels like that that that's

play24:54

the new category my my nine-year-old

play24:56

games and and then YouTube YouTube

play24:57

videos about games you know is his

play24:59

entire thing when he gets screen time

play25:01

and so um he just like I used to ask you

play25:03

want to go watch a movie and I could see

play25:04

in his head I could see him doing the

play25:05

math of 90 minutes of movie versus 45

play25:09

YouTube videos he's like

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no so I finally created I've created a

play25:14

movie club daddy Movie Club uh which is

play25:17

Sunday at lunch um where we watch movies

play25:19

and um uh he likes it once we start them

play25:21

but like it's always on the way into the

play25:22

living room he's kind of

play25:25

like can I bring my laptop into the

play25:27

movie with me

play25:29

um and so yeah I think there there's a

play25:30

lot of there's a lot of signals that

play25:31

things are headed in this direction yes

play25:33

let's let's talk about AI now um and and

play25:35

something that obviously the whole the

play25:36

whole firm and and yourself are spending

play25:38

um a lot of time on um so people often

play25:41

compare AI to just these big General

play25:44

technologies that have emerged um you

play25:46

know over the last few decades whether

play25:48

it's mo mobile or Internet and in in in

play25:51

what ways does Ai and everything that's

play25:53

been happening remind you of some of the

play25:55

prior waves versus you know what way is

play25:57

it completely new different what's

play25:59

happening with AI right now doesn't map

play26:00

to any of those and and the reason is

play26:01

because I when I look at AI what I see

play26:03

is sort of a new kind of computer like a

play26:05

fundamentally new kind of computer and

play26:07

the way I would describe that this goes

play26:08

to all of the by the way all the

play26:09

controversi issues issues around AI also

play26:11

which is um you know for 80 years we had

play26:14

we've had a model of a computer which is

play26:15

sort of this like super you know literal

play26:17

thing that can like do math you know at

play26:19

a trillion Cycles a second but like you

play26:21

have to tell it specifically what to do

play26:22

every single time and then you know and

play26:24

we call these you know deterministic

play26:26

computers where you know you tell it

play26:27

exactly what to do it always gives you

play26:28

the same answer it never you know it

play26:30

always gives you the exact literal

play26:31

answer um by the way if it doesn't give

play26:33

you the right answer on something it's

play26:34

because you screwed up right you you

play26:36

programmed it wrong um uh when I use you

play26:40

know llms or diffusion models or these

play26:41

things it's it's like no I'm dealing

play26:42

with a different kind of computer right

play26:44

there's input there's output it's doing

play26:45

things for me um but it's a

play26:47

probabilistic computer and you have the

play26:49

same question twice it gives you

play26:50

different answers which is just in and

play26:51

of itself a pretty mind-blowing thing um

play26:54

and then you know there and then there's

play26:55

the hallucination thing and and you know

play26:57

the hallucination thing is like you know

play26:59

it's this incredible thing because like

play27:00

Engineers look at the hallucination

play27:01

thing and they're like wow this is like

play27:02

a crippling problem you know I can't

play27:04

believe this thing is like making up

play27:05

answers it doesn't know what the truth

play27:06

is but if you if you put your kind of

play27:09

creative hat on or talk to creative

play27:10

people they're like well it's creating

play27:11

right it's like you have a computer

play27:13

that's creating things right and you get

play27:15

into all these philosophical debates

play27:16

about what the nature of creation is and

play27:18

originality and all that but like it's

play27:19

creating things um and sometimes the

play27:22

things it creates are pretty funny um

play27:24

and pretty entertaining these are these

play27:26

are creative computers um and and you

play27:28

know there's been all these examples

play27:29

recently but I think it was Alaska

play27:31

Airlines uh put one of these online as a

play27:32

customer support bot a lot of airlines

play27:34

have some bement policy where you can

play27:35

get a refund for you can get free

play27:37

flights to go to funerals or something

play27:39

um and uh turns out Alaska Airlines

play27:41

didn't have a bement policy but the the

play27:42

llm felt sorry for the for the customer

play27:44

so it made it made up a bement policy um

play27:47

and promised him a refund on his ticket

play27:49

um and then there was another case where

play27:51

a GM dealership put up a sales chatbot

play27:54

uh and it talked the customer to buying

play27:55

a Tesla um

play27:58

so and I see it's like Tes is a really

play28:01

great car

play28:03

um much more environmentally friendly so

play28:06

if you're literal minded you look at

play28:07

that you're horrified but if you're if

play28:08

you're like if you put your creative hat

play28:10

on you're like wow like this is like the

play28:12

coolest thing I've ever seen I get

play28:14

excited whenever anybody is is I love on

play28:16

Twitter and you know there all these

play28:17

academics now trying to figure out how

play28:19

to jailbreak these things and I just get

play28:20

so excited when I I've just I've just

play28:21

like I'm cheering on the jailbreaks I'm

play28:23

just so excited like the last thing I

play28:25

want is these things locked down like I

play28:27

want these things to be out there like

play28:28

doing all kinds of crazy stuff I think

play28:30

it's it's absolutely fantastic point is

play28:31

like I think the metaphor if anything is

play28:33

to like the creation of the

play28:34

microprocessor or something it's it's

play28:36

it's it's it's the it's the B the birth

play28:38

of a new kind of computer by by the way

play28:39

if you go back in history there there's

play28:41

a great book on neural network which is

play28:42

the foundational technology behind all

play28:44

this was actually invented 80 years ago

play28:46

in in 1943 amazing uh it's the first

play28:48

neural network paper that basically

play28:49

we're still we're still all of our work

play28:51

today is is still derived from that um

play28:53

there was actually a debate there was a

play28:55

debate in the nent computer world in the

play28:58

30s and early 40s when they were just

play28:59

didn't get the stuff to start to work

play29:00

and there was there was a whole school

play29:01

of thought that said this what they call

play29:03

vanoyan machines the sort of linear kind

play29:05

of model was actually the wrong model

play29:06

and that basically the Entire Computer

play29:08

should have been built from scratch on a

play29:09

model of the human brain and they had

play29:11

basically this exact discussion back

play29:13

then in sort of a very crude and simple

play29:14

form and and and sort of History went

play29:16

one way and now history's going to like

play29:17

come back around and now now we have

play29:19

both to choose from so I think now we're

play29:20

going to live in a world where basically

play29:21

you're going to have a proliferation of

play29:24

AIS in the same way that you've had

play29:25

microchips uh which is by the way

play29:27

they're be paired basically I think

play29:29

anything with a chip is going to have an

play29:30

AI and you're just going to you just

play29:31

basically you're just going to assume

play29:33

that everything has an AI um and there's

play29:35

going to be you know many billions of

play29:36

tiny models running everywhere there's

play29:38

going to be a few big God models in the

play29:39

sky um and then there's going to be a

play29:41

lot of stuff in the middle you know

play29:42

being customized and tailored for all

play29:43

kinds of all kinds of things to to what

play29:46

extent do you think that um you know

play29:48

when when the the web was created and

play29:50

you know when when mobile apps were

play29:52

created because there was this rush to

play29:54

sort of redesign the the the user

play29:56

interface um that that sort of allowed

play29:59

uh you know new startups to sort of uh

play30:01

be able to come into existence with the

play30:03

mobile native way of doing things as

play30:05

opposed to you know um the the prior

play30:07

version and and in this it's interesting

play30:09

in because the platforms are still kind

play30:12

of the same and and so to what extent do

play30:14

you think incumbents just have the upper

play30:17

hand by just integrating AI features

play30:20

into into their existing products versus

play30:22

versus uh you know startups being able

play30:23

to do something from scratch yeah so

play30:25

this is the big thing that we always

play30:26

think about inent this is big thing we

play30:27

always think about day jobs and Venture

play30:28

Capital which is like okay there's

play30:30

certain technology shifts where the

play30:31

incumbents can just add the new thing

play30:32

and then there's really not an

play30:33

opportunity for startups um and the

play30:35

scenario here would be you know

play30:36

Photoshop just adds AI photo editing and

play30:38

you're done right it's just it's done

play30:40

They just added it and they're done and

play30:41

it's just the world world keeps going

play30:43

with Adobe as the big company by the way

play30:45

that's true for a lot of a lot of new

play30:46

technologies I like that you just kind

play30:47

of add the new thing and by the way even

play30:49

mobile like there were some new mobile

play30:50

companies like uber and uh and lift and

play30:52

Airbnb and but you know look you know

play30:53

Google and Facebook adapted to mobile

play30:55

just fine like there there's no there's

play30:57

no mobile search engine right that that

play30:59

took over and one of the reasons

play31:00

Instagram is so big is because Facebook

play31:01

deliberately made it big by transferring

play31:03

over a lot of the a lot of the usage and

play31:05

so it turned out there wasn't an

play31:06

independent startup opportunity there um

play31:08

you know but every once in a while you

play31:10

get a you get a platform shift that's

play31:11

like dramatic enough where it basically

play31:13

it basically means that you you both

play31:15

kind of can and have to reinvent from

play31:18

scratch the whole idea of what the thing

play31:20

is in the first place and so the the

play31:22

that would be literally you know that

play31:23

would be like mid Journey right so so

play31:25

Photoshop plus AI editing versus mid

play31:26

Journey or dolly

play31:28

um and and so in in in in the full

play31:31

version of platform shift basically the

play31:33

whole idea of Photoshop plus AI image

play31:36

editing is just like you know at some

play31:37

point just becomes completely irrelevant

play31:39

like C can you believe people used to do

play31:41

that you know people used to fiddle with

play31:43

pixels like seriously um because you'll

play31:46

live in this new world and in the new

play31:47

world you'll just tell the machine what

play31:49

you want for a photo for an image and

play31:50

it'll generate you as many options as

play31:52

you want and it's generating you

play31:53

something that's better than you would

play31:54

have been able to do anyway and like

play31:55

you're totally happy and the whole idea

play31:57

of fiddling with you know image pixels

play31:59

is like writing a machine code or

play32:01

something people still ride horses it's

play32:03

just like for like Rich fancy people

play32:05

like for fun right um and you know I you

play32:08

know so you know in this scenario

play32:09

someday people will still still do image

play32:11

editing but it'll be like three like

play32:12

weirdo designers in Norway or something

play32:14

that you know we'll still be will'll

play32:15

still be into this kind of thing or

play32:16

graphic you know graphic designers in

play32:18

their retirement um um and it'll just be

play32:21

a new way of doing things right and then

play32:22

basically our bet always is like we're

play32:24

and we're you know when we make mistakes

play32:25

it's because we kind of we kind of

play32:27

overestimate the degree to which this is

play32:28

going to happen um but but our whole

play32:30

thing is to basically try to get in

play32:31

front of this and try to you know

play32:32

basically make the assumption that

play32:33

you're going to have complete turnover

play32:35

and look this has happened before like

play32:37

there's an entire generation of

play32:37

Mainframe software companies that turned

play32:39

over that didn't exist anymore basically

play32:40

once the PC came out a lot of the PC

play32:42

software companies never adapted the web

play32:44

a lot of those companies just went away

play32:45

these kinds of shifts do happen they are

play32:47

radical the the key question though is

play32:49

like can you reinvent the entire product

play32:50

like can can can you imagine like

play32:52

basically just like the the old rules

play32:54

don't apply anymore there's a completely

play32:55

different way of doing the thing um and

play32:57

and you know this certainly feels like

play32:59

that just talking a little bit more

play33:02

about kind of incumbents there's there's

play33:03

sort of this thought that um you know

play33:06

there there's a world in which which the

play33:08

AI models are owned by a small number of

play33:10

companies you know the the god models in

play33:11

the in the Sky versus the version where

play33:14

there are lots and lots of little things

play33:15

and and I know you know um we've talked

play33:18

quite a bit about kind of the the role

play33:19

of Open Source you know potentially in

play33:21

Ai and and it would be great to to hear

play33:23

you expand on on that and kind of the

play33:25

the importance of that you know the big

play33:27

companies and this is you know this is

play33:28

sort of what we call the sort of

play33:29

incumbents tech companies doing Ai and

play33:31

then what we call the new incumbents

play33:32

which are like the companies that have

play33:33

raised you know billions of dollars in

play33:35

their new AI companies but they're

play33:36

already incumbents um you know if you

play33:38

listen to them you basically hear two

play33:39

things number one is like obviously

play33:41

everybody's only ever going to use the

play33:42

big models um and and the reason for

play33:44

that by the way is a very good argument

play33:45

in that direction which is they're just

play33:46

always going to have the best answers

play33:48

right and and and and what what they

play33:50

basically say is like look this Market's

play33:51

going to be like the search Market was

play33:52

like which is you know of course you're

play33:54

always just going to ask Google log

play33:55

search search like there's no market for

play33:57

like you know vertical search engines in

play33:58

all these different domains you just

play33:59

Google just always gives you the best

play34:01

search answer on almost every

play34:02

practically everything um there there

play34:04

was no it turned out there was no

play34:05

startup opportunity to build to build

play34:06

smaller search engines um and so it's

play34:09

just obviously that everybody's just

play34:10

going to run and everybody's going to

play34:11

you know tap into a chat GPT or a CLA or

play34:13

something or a Gemini through an API and

play34:15

you know pay by the drink and that's the

play34:17

way it's going to work and then of

play34:18

course the other thing you hear from

play34:18

those companies is AI is scary and evil

play34:20

and needs to be regulated um and we need

play34:23

this regulatory wall so that startups

play34:25

can't function anyway and by the way we

play34:26

should probably ban open source while

play34:27

we're at it because that's also evil and

play34:29

scary um so and you know it's sort of

play34:32

interesting how those um uh those uh you

play34:34

know kind of statements kind of you know

play34:35

go together um look we're we're big

play34:38

Believers in the exact opposite like I

play34:39

said you know we're big Believers that

play34:41

um there's just going to be such a giant

play34:43

number of use cases specifically there's

play34:45

be a giant number of like local use

play34:46

cases um like you know your door knob is

play34:48

going to have an llm in it that's going

play34:50

to control whether or not people get

play34:51

through the door right and like you are

play34:53

you really going to do a round trip up

play34:55

to the supercomputer and the cloud to do

play34:56

that by the way you want to because do

play34:58

you want the supercomputer in the cloud

play34:59

knowing who's coming in and out of your

play35:01

house right um and then just the cost

play35:02

associated with that is going to be you

play35:04

know it's going to be very expensive um

play35:06

relative to what you could do with a

play35:07

small model uh you in the doorknob and

play35:08

by extension kind of in in everything

play35:10

else and then yeah open source is

play35:12

clearly a way to kind of give people the

play35:13

flexibility to be able to implement Ai

play35:15

and basically everything and we're yeah

play35:17

we're very fired up about that and we're

play35:19

as one example we're the major investors

play35:20

in mrr which is you know at least right

play35:22

now the leading ai ai open source

play35:24

company y um and we're going to we're

play35:26

going to fight hard to help them you

play35:27

know succeed and have this model succeed

play35:29

yeah I mean it's it's been it's been so

play35:30

impressive to go from I remember you

play35:33

know being at a point where we were all

play35:35

just sending articles around um and you

play35:37

know screenshots of things that we were

play35:39

you know uh doing on chat gbt to all of

play35:41

a sudden this being you know really like

play35:43

the primary focus of the firm and and a

play35:45

ton of ton of hiring a ton of new

play35:47

efforts everything kind of you know

play35:49

around that yeah I was just I'm just out

play35:50

in the car trying to I was just before

play35:51

this trying to close a deal we're in a

play35:53

hot shoot shootout for a hot deal and

play35:55

it's a video it's a related to video

play35:57

it's just like wow the implications of

play35:59

this like the entire nature of what

play36:01

video is could change right just like

play36:02

the entire Assumption of like what's in

play36:04

a video and how it reacts to users like

play36:05

the whole thing like you know one of

play36:08

these things where you could imagine

play36:09

looking back in a decade and being like

play36:10

I can't believe people used to watch you

play36:11

know static videos at all like it just

play36:13

doesn't make any sense it's like

play36:14

watching a silent movie obviously videos

play36:16

should be like responsive in real time

play36:18

you know and so it's like it's this kind

play36:19

of thing where it's like you know the

play36:20

entire world of anything everything

play36:22

involving video might just like

play36:24

completely change um so yeah awesome um

play36:27

well I'll I'll uh I'll I'll wrap up with

play36:29

one one or two kind of final questions

play36:30

um you know one is uh talk to us about

play36:33

how um you know when when we began um

play36:37

you know doing more investing in games

play36:39

and actually before I even showed up at

play36:40

the firm I think we had invested in uh

play36:42

in Zinga and Oculus and a couple others

play36:45

I think Chris Dixon had pioneered a lot

play36:47

of it but what was it that gave gave you

play36:49

personally the conviction to take on

play36:52

games as as as as as one of the as one

play36:54

of the main areas for for a6z yeah then

play36:57

there's a classic argument you'll hear

play36:58

in Venture if you talk to VCS there a

play37:00

classic argument you'll hear as to why

play37:01

VC shouldn't invest in games it's

play37:02

basically an artifact in my view of

play37:04

later the ' 80s 90s 2000s period in

play37:06

which it actually was pretty dangerous

play37:07

to invest in games and the the the the

play37:09

reason for it was just number one games

play37:10

are sort of viewed as like hit as a you

play37:12

know classic hit driven business and you

play37:14

know and then the game would come out

play37:15

and it would kind of if it succeeded it

play37:16

would have like a revenue Arc that

play37:17

looked like that right um like a movie

play37:19

or something um and then there was just

play37:21

economics that flowed from that that

play37:23

basically said like the movie studios

play37:25

make most of the money in movies the the

play37:26

platform publishing companies uh like EA

play37:29

make most of the money in games and so

play37:30

there's really and and you know even if

play37:31

you start a new startup studio and you

play37:33

build a new game franchise it'll just

play37:34

get bought by one of the platform

play37:35

companies and there's not really much

play37:37

upside you know to it um because of the

play37:39

industrial logic of of distribution and

play37:41

all those things and so um so just it

play37:43

was like it was not considered kind of

play37:44

to be a viable area for for Venture

play37:46

investment for a long time um our

play37:48

assessment is is basically that the

play37:50

world has changed and and the world has

play37:52

changed is changing and we're going to

play37:53

try to change it further and I guess I'd

play37:55

say so several things so one is you game

play37:58

as you know package software that has

play38:00

that you know looks like a movie versus

play38:01

game as sort of permanent platform and

play38:05

uh you know sort of foundation that then

play38:06

you end up building 20 or 30 or 40 Years

play38:09

of experiences on top of um and here

play38:11

again it's just not and now now this is

play38:13

getting more obvious because you know

play38:14

you go right through my Minecraft Roblox

play38:16

there's more and more examples where

play38:17

like clearly this is happen you know

play38:18

clearly this is exactly what's happening

play38:20

um and so you know basically from a

play38:22

business standpoint assets that can

play38:23

actually grow on value for for for

play38:24

decades and they can keep adding users

play38:26

and keep adding content keep experiences

play38:28

and keep broadening out so so one is and

play38:30

that's totally that's totally Venture

play38:31

Venture investable those those are great

play38:33

businesses um so that's one two is

play38:35

looked like all these other Technologies

play38:37

kicking in and so the traditional game

play38:39

industry was you know was was an

play38:41

artifact historically of basically like

play38:42

not being online right um you know and

play38:45

even still today like you know a lot of

play38:46

games that you buy like they may have

play38:47

multiplayer mode but they're not really

play38:48

built it's like full online experiences

play38:50

but now you can build as like full

play38:51

online experiences and you can take

play38:52

advantage you know you can have real

play38:54

economies you can have user generated

play38:55

content platforms you can have you can

play38:57

use AI um you you you know many many

play38:59

many sort of ways to make these just

play39:01

like a fundamentally more sophisticated

play39:03

experience um and so there's sort of get

play39:05

the benefit of all these technology

play39:07

Innovations um and then I would say

play39:09

third is just you know Founders this is

play39:11

sort of the thing in the past is like a

play39:12

lot of the great game designers of the

play39:13

past you know it's like they just they

play39:15

want they want they want to build a

play39:16

they're a little bit like movie

play39:16

directors they want to build a game they

play39:18

want to get paid in cash um when they're

play39:20

done building this game they want to

play39:21

build another game it's probably a

play39:22

different game um and fundamentally they

play39:24

kind of want to work for a studio um

play39:26

because that's that's where they get

play39:29

you know our kind of found is not that

play39:30

our kind of found wants to build a

play39:31

product but then wants to build a bu and

play39:33

wants to build a and wants to build

play39:34

something that's going to be enduring

play39:36

and expansive and have you know enormous

play39:37

vision and become you know very big and

play39:39

important in the world um and have a

play39:41

giant R&D agenda and a you know very

play39:43

aggressive you know product road map and

play39:45

and and so forth and so and and then and

play39:46

then run their own thing and then you

play39:47

know be the CEO you know and actually be

play39:49

in control of the whole thing we've been

play39:51

very encouraged by the number of smart

play39:52

people coming out of gaming who who want

play39:54

that that's right that's right um

play39:55

because because they see that in other

play39:56

sectors of of software Tech and they

play39:58

they want to do that and then we're also

play39:59

helping you know we're trying to help

play40:00

encourage that yeah well I mean and and

play40:01

that's personally been one of the most

play40:03

interesting things about you know

play40:05

building the speedrun program is just

play40:07

being able to use a marketing motion to

play40:09

just discover all the founders that want

play40:12

to work in you know game studios or

play40:13

they're building infrastructure or

play40:14

they're building Ai and and just the

play40:16

enormous number of them that that you

play40:17

know many of you know that um you know

play40:20

last year when we when we put this out

play40:21

there it was it was uh you know nearly

play40:23

6,000 companies actually applied to be

play40:26

part of of of the speedrun program and

play40:28

we we anticipate this you know

play40:29

continuing to grow and so there's just

play40:31

you know a fantastic amount of um Talent

play40:33

the other thing just the other thing is

play40:34

very exciting for for me is you know I

play40:36

mean look I think games as entertainment

play40:37

are fantastic and they very socially

play40:40

positive and productive and I love them

play40:41

and it's great uh and it's fantastic um

play40:43

but but also like you know we mentioned

play40:45

earlier like the games are always on

play40:46

like The Cutting Edge of applying new

play40:48

technology yes I I also think like the

play40:50

the skill set of what it takes to make

play40:51

great games I think also more and more

play40:53

it's just going to apply in many many

play40:55

other domains like some people tried

play40:58

this but like someday there's going to

play40:59

be a great educational experience and

play41:00

it's going to look and feel like a game

play41:02

like that just seems like Crystal Clear

play41:03

like you know the great health problems

play41:04

of our time you know for the most if you

play41:06

just look at the numbers the health

play41:07

problems of our time are not like random

play41:08

things that just happened to us the

play41:10

great health problems of our time are

play41:11

the consequences of our own behavior

play41:13

right and so they they call metabolic

play41:15

diseases um you know which is like you

play41:17

know you're you know you're fat you're

play41:18

lazy you don't get enough sleep um right

play41:21

and then there's all this Downstream you

play41:22

know diabetes and cancer and everything

play41:23

that's heart attacks it's Downstream

play41:25

from that um and so it's like it's very

play41:27

clear that like the the whole world of

play41:29

healthare Health Care is not oh

play41:31

something's wrong I need to go to the

play41:32

doctor and get it fixed the whole

play41:33

healthare has to be transformed into I'm

play41:35

I'm healthy my entire life because I'm

play41:36

making myself healthy and that's a hard

play41:38

thing to do and the system that supports

play41:40

you in doing that is going to feel like

play41:41

a game because it has to it has to be

play41:42

engaging it has to be it has to be

play41:44

something that you enjoy uh dealing with

play41:45

and so like there's no question like

play41:47

that's going to happen um and so there's

play41:49

there's all of these other areas of life

play41:51

and business I think that are going to

play41:53

get transformed by this kind of

play41:54

mentality and skill set and and riffing

play41:56

on something that that you said before

play41:58

in the past is uh you know we're we're

play42:01

willing to spend a billion dollars

play42:03

building you know Grand Theft Auto and

play42:06

we're willing to spend hundreds of

play42:07

millions of dollars to you know create

play42:08

create a movie but when it comes to you

play42:10

know what is the most amazing computer

play42:12

science 101 right you know class you

play42:15

know how much how much money are we

play42:16

willing to put into that versus how much

play42:18

you know amazing output do we get from

play42:20

from you know potentially put you know

play42:22

building something at that quality for

play42:24

for something like this yeah it's

play42:25

amazing you know look you the best in

play42:27

the world and you know you guys all been

play42:29

through this most of you think G gone to

play42:31

college at least for one day before you

play42:33

dropped out but um but uh you know the

play42:36

muks like made this like super clear

play42:37

right it's just like okay MIT TCS 101

play42:39

like whatever that is it's just like oh

play42:41

it's you know after whatever 200 you

play42:42

know whatever amount of time they put

play42:43

into trying to figure out it's just

play42:45

still like you know dude in front of

play42:46

chalkboard right like it's just like

play42:48

like really like like really right and

play42:50

so yeah so the the thought experiment

play42:51

I'm always proposing in The Firm is like

play42:53

what what's the model where you hire

play42:54

Steven Spielberg to make CS 101 right

play42:56

and it's like you know $200 million

play42:58

production and it's like the most like

play42:59

fantastically entertaining thing you've

play43:01

ever seen that's be like the movie

play43:03

version or you hire you know I don't

play43:04

know you know John carac or somebody to

play43:05

make uh you know to make uh to make that

play43:08

sounds like it' be fun make the game

play43:09

version of it right exactly like and

play43:10

look it's just like could you afford to

play43:11

do that it's like well you know look

play43:13

like you just take the total number of

play43:14

kids in the world that need to learn

play43:15

computer science you know it's just like

play43:17

the numbers at least in theory the

play43:19

numbers they there you could make the

play43:20

economics work um yeah so yeah people

play43:22

have taken swings at this there have

play43:23

been some early some you know some early

play43:25

successes but no nobody's done the big

play43:26

thing yet but I think somebody will yeah

play43:28

absolutely yeah I hope so so uh talk

play43:30

about what you hope you know a16z and

play43:33

then also just you know honestly this

play43:34

broader community of Founders is able to

play43:37

accomplish in in in the games industry

play43:39

in kind of the adjacent sectors like

play43:40

what what does what does success look

play43:42

like for you what what what are your

play43:43

what's your aspiration for what happens

play43:44

in the industry yeah look so I mean like

play43:45

there's a lot of ways to think about it

play43:47

you know look you know we talked a lot

play43:48

about technological transformation um uh

play43:51

we talked a lot about uh you know new

play43:52

business models we talked a lot about

play43:54

applying you know game methods you know

play43:55

kind of outside of Gaming you know I

play43:57

think those are all great and then again

play43:59

I think entertainment I'm always always

play44:01

like it's always like oh this you know

play44:02

ENT entertainment is Trivial

play44:04

entertainment is not trivial like we're

play44:06

not supposed to go through life

play44:07

depressed and like just like being like

play44:10

drudged like oh God we're supposed to

play44:13

have fun like we're like life is

play44:15

supposed to be fun it's supposed to be

play44:15

enjoyable we're supposed to have like

play44:17

games and movies and and things that we

play44:18

like to you know it's great right so we

play44:20

would just love for there to be just to

play44:22

be crystal clear that like the primary

play44:24

opportunity for the best people in this

play44:26

field is they can build they can build

play44:28

companies and they can build companies

play44:29

that you know are able to you know be be

play44:31

independent they they're able to have

play44:33

you know very distinct Visions uh you

play44:35

know very radical ideas they're able to

play44:36

build teams to execute against that and

play44:38

and then really CR crucially like based

play44:40

on their early success they're then able

play44:41

to build themselves into institutions

play44:43

that can really endure for a long time

play44:45

and then have like extremely expansive

play44:47

product road maps right I you know

play44:50

example of this like fa you know

play44:51

Facebook I told you the flip-flop story

play44:52

earlier like you know Facebook's now in

play44:54

a position you know Facebook's you know

play44:55

spending you know on the order of 20

play44:56

billion dollar a year on VR right like

play44:59

he's worked him you know Mark has worked

play45:00

himself into a position where he's able

play45:01

to do that and the Google guys have been

play45:03

able to do that in other areas like

play45:04

self-driving cars and and you know now

play45:06

and now ai and so when when these

play45:08

companies get in position where they've

play45:09

got like that kind of you know basically

play45:12

Vision at the helm um and you know this

play45:14

the sort of Founders and founding teams

play45:16

at at the best of these companies and

play45:17

then they and then they have their early

play45:19

win like they can get in position where

play45:20

they can start to really do really big

play45:22

ambitious things um and so I I think in

play45:24

in the my hope would be that the

play45:25

companies the companies that that all of

play45:27

you are doing that the result of that is

play45:29

going to be a set of companies that are

play45:30

going to be really World defining in the

play45:31

decades ahead amazing let's give Mark a

play45:34

hand good awesome thank you thank you

play45:38

good thank you

play45:41

[Music]

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