Why Is This Stock On FIRE?! | SMCI Stock Analysis

Summary

スーパーマイクロコンピューター株式会社の株価は1年間で77％上昇しましたが、偉大な投資家の一人であるハワード・マークスは約1年前にそれを売却しました。この動画では、そのような驚異的な成長の原因と、その評価が正当化されているか、また投資からまだ利益を得ることができるかどうかを探ります。同社の主な強みは、高度にカスタマイズ可能でエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供できることにあり、その最近の結果が価格の高騰を説明しています。しかし、短期的な結果だけに焦点を当てることは投資ではなく投機になりがちです。長期的な視点を持ってこの企業を評価し、現在の高い株価が投資のチャンスを提供しているかどうかを検討します。

Takeaways

• 📈 スーパーマイクロコンピューター株は1年で77%上昇した。
• 🔍 ハワード・マークスのようなトップ投資家も、この株を1年前に売却した。
• 💼 会社はサーバーとストレージソリューションを開発・製造し、カスタマイズとエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供。
• 📊 短期成績は売上が103%、純利益が68%、現金が64.7%増加、負債が17.3%減少。
• 📉 長期投資では10年前に$1,000投資すると、約$4,530の価値がある。
• 👥 経営陣は会社の約14.9%を保有しているが、最近多くの株を売却している。
• 💸 投資された資本のリターンは平均99.6%で、10%以上が望ましい。
• 📈 純利益率は業界平均の4.7%を上回る7.8%。
• 🚫 配当は支払われておらず、成長に集中している。
• 💰 価格収益率（PE比率）は57.8で、市場価値は高い。
• 🤔 現在の株価は高評価であり、将来的に他の買い時があるかもしれないが、今は適切な時期ではない。

Q & A

What has driven the huge increase in Super Micro's stock price over the past year?

Super Micro has shown exceptional financial results over the past year, with revenue up 103% year-over-year, net income up 68%, and cash up 64.7% in just 6 months. The company is growing rapidly.

Is Super Micro's current stock valuation justified?

The valuation seems extremely high, with a current P/E ratio around 58. Even the most optimistic DCF analysis with generous growth estimates suggests the stock is significantly overvalued.

What are some positives for Super Micro as a long-term investment?

Positives include good insider ownership, strong revenue growth and cash flow growth over the past decade, high profit margins compared to the industry average, and a reasonably strong balance sheet.

What are the potential concerns for Super Micro as an investment?

Concerns include the volatile free cash flows historically, lack of dividends, dilution of shareholders in the past decade from issuing 19% more shares, and the very high current valuation.

Did Howard Marx make a mistake by selling his Super Micro shares a year ago?

In hindsight yes, as he missed out on huge gains over the past year. However, the valuation a year ago was likely much more reasonable, so it's hard to fault the decision.

What is the forecast for growth in the overall data storage market?

The predicted growth rate for the global data storage market is 17.8% per year.

What were the revenue and EPS 10-year CAGR for Super Micro?

The 10-year revenue CAGR was 19.9% and the EPS CAGR was 37.3%.

What should investors be cautious about when assessing Super Micro's past growth?

The high historical growth rates may not be sustainable long-term, and the cash flows have been quite volatile historically, so past growth can be misleading.

What approach was used to value Super Micro stock?

A discounted cash flow analysis was done using historical 5-year average free cash flows, with low/medium/high growth scenario assumptions.

When might Super Micro stock be at a better valuation to invest in?

If growth slows and the valuation (P/E) compresses in the future, perhaps into the 10-15x range, it likely would provide a better long-term entry point.

Outlines

00:00

📈スーパーマイクロの株価上昇とその分析

スーパーマイクロコンピューター株が1年で77%上昇し、著名な投資家ハワード・マークスが売却してからの成長を見て、この上昇の理由とその正当性を検討。スーパーマイクロはサーバーとストレージソリューションを開発・製造し、カスタマイズ可能でエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供することが強み。最近の業績では、売上高が前年比103%増、純利益が68%増、現金が半年で64.7%増、債務が17.3%減と著しく好調。しかし、短期的な成果に注目すれば投資ではなく投機になるため、長期的な視点からこの投資の可能性を評価。過去10年間での投資収益率、経営陣の保有株比率、インサイダー取引の動向、スーパー投資家の関与状況、投資された資本のリターン、純利益率、株式の買い戻し、負債状況、収益の新たな成長、フリーキャッシュフローの成長などを分析して、この企業の現在の評価と投資のタイミングについて考察する。

05:02

💡スーパーマイクロの将来性と投資戦略

スーパーマイクロの将来性を評価するため、割引キャッシュフローモデルを使用し、次の10年間の成長を予測する三つのシナリオ（低、中、高）を設定。フリーキャッシュフローの不安定さを考慮し、5年平均を基準にして評価。各シナリオの内在価値を算出し、30%の安全マージンを適用して公正価値を求める。しかし、現在の株価はこれらの評価を大幅に上回っており、投資には適さないと判断。2023年初頭の株価は公正価値に近かったが、現在のPE比率とフリーキャッシュフローの不安定さを鑑みると、将来的に再び投資機会があるかもしれないが、現時点では待つべき時と分析。スーパーマイクロが優れた企業であることは確かだが、適切な投資タイミングを見極めることの重要性を強調。

10:05

🔍投資機会の選択と忍耐の重要性

投資における機会選択の重要性を強調し、ウォーレン・バフェットの「全てのボールに振る必要はない」という言葉を引用して、正しいと信じる機会にのみ焦点を当てるべきであると説く。スーパーマイクロコンピューターの分析を終え、同様にテクノロジー分野で優れた企業であるTSMCの分析に興味がある視聴者に向けて次の動画を予告。投資は時として忍耐が必要であり、市場の非合理性に巻き込まれずに冷静な判断を下すことの大切さを伝える。

Keywords

💡株価

株価とは、証券市場で取引される株式の価格のことで、投資家が企業に対する評価を数値化したものです。動画では、Super Micro Computer Incorporatedの株価が1年で77%上昇した事例を取り上げています。この急激な上昇は、企業の収益や市場におけるポジションが改善したことを反映しており、投資家の間で高い期待があることを示しています。

💡収益性

収益性は、企業がどの程度効率的に収益を上げているかを示す指標です。動画では、Super Micro Computer Incorporatedの収益が前年比103%増、純利益が68%増となっている点が強調されています。これは、企業が成長しており、投資家にとって魅力的な投資先であることを示しています。

💡フリーキャッシュフロー

フリーキャッシュフローは、企業がその運営活動から生み出すキャッシュフローから、設備投資などの資本支出を差し引いた金額です。動画では、Super Micro Computerのフリーキャッシュフローの成長が53.6%であることが評価されていますが、過去の変動が大きいため、安定した成長指標とは言えないと指摘されています。

💡割安性

割安性は、株価が実際の企業価値に比べて低く評価されている状態を指します。動画では、PE（株価収益率）が57.8と高いにも関わらず、Super Micro Computerの株が割安とは言えず、むしろ過大評価されている可能性があると分析されています。

💡株式発行

株式発行とは、企業が新たに株式を市場に供給することで、資金を調達する行為です。動画では、Super Micro Computerが過去10年間で株式を19%増発し、長期投資家を希薄化させたが、これが成長資金を得るための戦略であった可能性が指摘されています。

💡負債減少

負債減少は、企業が負債を返済し、その負債の総額を減らすことを指します。動画では、Super Micro Computerの負債が半年で17.3%減少したことがポジティブなサインとして取り上げられています。これは財務の健全性が向上していることを示しており、投資家にとって安心材料となります。

💡配当

配当とは、企業が利益の一部を株主に分配することです。動画では、Super Micro Computerが配当を行っていないことが触れられており、これは企業が成長に注力し、そのための資金を内部留保していることを示しています。

💡インサイダー所有率

インサイダー所有率は、企業の役員や重要な従業員が保有する株式の割合です。動画では、Super Micro Computerのインサイダー所有率が14.9%とされ、これが企業へのコミットメントを示す好ましい兆候であると解説されています。

💡投資家の行動

投資家の行動とは、株式市場における投資家たちの購入、保有、売却などの行動を指します。動画では、著名投資家であるHoward MarxがSuper Micro Computerの株を売却した事例が挙げられ、市場の動向や投資判断の難しさが示されています。

💡割引現在価値（DCF）

割引現在価値（DCF）は、将来にわたって得られる予想キャッシュフローを現在の価値に割り引くことで、企業の価値を評価する手法です。動画では、Super Micro Computerの将来の成長予測に基づいてDCF分析が行われ、現在の株価が過大評価されている可能性があると結論付けられています。

Highlights

Super Micro Computer stock is up 77% in the past year despite a legendary investor selling

The company has seen 103% revenue growth and 68% net income growth recently

Insiders own 14.9% of the company showing strong alignment with shareholders

However, insiders have been selling a lot of shares recently

Return on invested capital is slightly below ideal at 9.6%

The company has a decent profit margin of 7.8%

19% more shares have been issued in the past 10 years, diluting investors

The company could pay off long-term debt in just over 1 year

Revenue has grown 19.9% annually over 10 years

Free cash flow grew 53.6% over 10 years but is volatile

EPS grew 37.3% annually over 10 years

The current P/E ratio is a very high 57.8

Even optimistic intrinsic value estimates are far below the current price

The stock seems overvalued currently but could present opportunities in future

It's not the right time to invest for me, but I may be wrong

Transcripts

super micro computer incorporated stock

is up by

77% in one year and Howard Marx who is

one of the greatest investors ever sold

it almost exactly a year ago well

nobody's

perfect so let's try to understand what

caused such an incredible growth is such

a valuation Justified and can we still

make money on this investment

super micro computer incorporated

develops and manufactures server and

Storage Solutions its main advantage is

the ability to offer highly customizable

and energy efficient products and its

recent results can give us a first

Glimpse at why the price went

Skyhigh revenue is up by

103% year-over-year net income is up by

68% cash is up by

64.7% in half a year and debt went down

by

17.3% in the same time so shortterm

results are absolutely beautiful but if

we concentrate on the short term we are

rather speculating and not investing so

let's take a look at the big

picture if you were to invest $1,000

into this company 10 years ago you could

buy around 46 shares and now they would

be worth close to

$4,530

35% in 10

years well not bad it's actually pretty

good

pretty pretty

[Music]

good individual Insider that is a check

14.9% of the company is owned by

individual insiders and we would like to

see this number over 2% so that is some

great news the management has its skin

in the game and so it will take good

care of the company and of the

shareholders and are individual insiders

buying that is an X they are selling a

lot of shares in the recent year

especially in the last 3 months mons

when the price gained another

190% and do super investors own this

company that is an X Howard Marx and Lee

einsley used to own this company but

einsley sold his shares at the end of

2021 and Howard Marx did the same a year

later so Isley was too early for sure

and Marx probably made a nice profit but

nothing close to what it would be if he

just waited another year well it just

shows that it is never

[Music]

easy return on invested Capital that is

an X at

99.6% 10year medium returns and we want

to see this number higher than 10% so it

is just a little bit lower than our

expectations not bad but not great

either and what do we know about net

profit margin it is a check at

7.8% and the industry average is around

4.7 so a decent margin and now let's

take a look at share buyback it is an X

in the last 10 years they issued 19%

extra shares so they are diluting

long-term investors but maybe it's not

such a bad idea if a company believes

that its stock is very expensive and it

needs money for growth then issuing new

shares can be a cheaper way of getting

cash than for example getting into debt

so what is the situation with debt it is

a check it would take just over one year

to pay the long-term debt with a 5-year

average free cash flow so that is a nice

result Revenue New Growth that is a

check at

19.9% 10-year compound annual growth

rate and we would like to see this

number higher than 10% so such growth is

impressive and free cash flow growth

that is a check at

53.6% in the last 10 years that is great

but it does not tell the full story

super micro computer incorporated has

actually a very volatile history of its

free cash flow so this growth may look

great now but in one year's time it can

be negative again and earnings per share

growth that is a check at

37.3% in the last 10 years and also here

we would like to see it higher than 10%

so even though they are issuing new

shares this growth is

exceptional

super micro computer incorporated is not

paying any dividends at the moment and

looking at its incredible growth it

makes sense they are concentrating on

expansion and paying dividends would

just slow them

down price to earnings ratio is

57.8 let me repeat that price to

earnings ratio is

57.8 and I know Nvidia has a PE of 95

right now but the fact that other

companies are expensive does not make

this company cheap just a little bit

less expensive than other expensive

companies you know what I mean but let's

value it using a discounted cash flow

formula for that we will have to

estimate its growth for the next 10 10

years and we will make three scenarios

low medium and a high one and we will

use a 5year average free cash flow and

not the recent one because like I said

before the history of free cash flow of

this company is really unstable so

taking an average should give us a more

realistic picture of the company so in

the low scenario we will estimate a

growth of 18% for the first 5 years and

then

15% in the medium

22% and then 20% and in the high

scenario 30% and then 25% growth so the

low scenario is close to the predicted

global data storage market growth of

17.8% per year medium is predicting that

super micro computer will grow much

faster than the average and the high one

is a scenario in which we are much

closer to the average growth of this

company in the last few years it's very

hard to sustain such momentum but

definitely not impossible so with such

estimates the intrinsic value in the low

scenario is

$60 in the medium

$78 and in the high scenario

$118 but we have to always apply a

margin of safety to those prices I use a

30% one but you can use any percentage

that makes you feel comfortable and with

such a margin we get in the low scenario

$42 in the medium

$54 and in the high one

$83 and the current price is around

$740 so it is all in the red and it is a

meaningful difference

so it is very expensive but just at the

beginning of

2023 the price was around $83 so

basically that is the highest scenario

with the margin of safety so it was

around its fair value now we are paying

for expected growth but with a PE ratio

of almost

58 is just absurd to pay $58 for $1 of

earnings I don't see it and at the

beginning of 2023 it had a PE ratio of

nine so a great deal and now it is just

too late but looking at how unstable its

free cash flow is there may be other

opportunities to buy this company in the

future and it is a very good company

Financial Health growth it's all good

but we have to be patient and just wait

for the right time to invest is it now I

don't think so but maybe I'm wrong what

I know for sure is that it is not the

right time for me I go to our patreon

page look at our stock ranking and see

much better Investments there good

companies that are just way way cheaper

does it mean Super Micro computer won't

go up of course not markets can stay

irrational for a very long time but it

does not mean that we have to

participate in this Behavior as Warren

Buffett once said we do not have to

swing at every

opportunity just the one that we believe

is right for us if you enjoyed this

video you may be interested in my

analysis of tsmc another great company

in the technology sector

thank you so much for watching and see

you in the next

[Music]

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