Why Is This Stock On FIRE?! | SMCI Stock Analysis
Summary
TLDRスーパーマイクロコンピューター株式会社の株価は1年間で77%上昇しましたが、偉大な投資家の一人であるハワード・マークスは約1年前にそれを売却しました。この動画では、そのような驚異的な成長の原因と、その評価が正当化されているか、また投資からまだ利益を得ることができるかどうかを探ります。同社の主な強みは、高度にカスタマイズ可能でエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供できることにあり、その最近の結果が価格の高騰を説明しています。しかし、短期的な結果だけに焦点を当てることは投資ではなく投機になりがちです。長期的な視点を持ってこの企業を評価し、現在の高い株価が投資のチャンスを提供しているかどうかを検討します。
Takeaways
- 📈 スーパーマイクロコンピューター株は1年で77%上昇した。
- 🔍 ハワード・マークスのようなトップ投資家も、この株を1年前に売却した。
- 💼 会社はサーバーとストレージソリューションを開発・製造し、カスタマイズとエネルギー効率の高い製品を提供。
- 📊 短期成績は売上が103%、純利益が68%、現金が64.7%増加、負債が17.3%減少。
- 📉 長期投資では10年前に$1,000投資すると、約$4,530の価値がある。
- 👥 経営陣は会社の約14.9%を保有しているが、最近多くの株を売却している。
- 💸 投資された資本のリターンは平均99.6%で、10%以上が望ましい。
- 📈 純利益率は業界平均の4.7%を上回る7.8%。
- 🚫 配当は支払われておらず、成長に集中している。
- 💰 価格収益率(PE比率)は57.8で、市場価値は高い。
- 🤔 現在の株価は高評価であり、将来的に他の買い時があるかもしれないが、今は適切な時期ではない。
Q & A
What has driven the huge increase in Super Micro's stock price over the past year?
-Super Micro has shown exceptional financial results over the past year, with revenue up 103% year-over-year, net income up 68%, and cash up 64.7% in just 6 months. The company is growing rapidly.
Is Super Micro's current stock valuation justified?
-The valuation seems extremely high, with a current P/E ratio around 58. Even the most optimistic DCF analysis with generous growth estimates suggests the stock is significantly overvalued.
What are some positives for Super Micro as a long-term investment?
-Positives include good insider ownership, strong revenue growth and cash flow growth over the past decade, high profit margins compared to the industry average, and a reasonably strong balance sheet.
What are the potential concerns for Super Micro as an investment?
-Concerns include the volatile free cash flows historically, lack of dividends, dilution of shareholders in the past decade from issuing 19% more shares, and the very high current valuation.
Did Howard Marx make a mistake by selling his Super Micro shares a year ago?
-In hindsight yes, as he missed out on huge gains over the past year. However, the valuation a year ago was likely much more reasonable, so it's hard to fault the decision.
What is the forecast for growth in the overall data storage market?
-The predicted growth rate for the global data storage market is 17.8% per year.
What were the revenue and EPS 10-year CAGR for Super Micro?
-The 10-year revenue CAGR was 19.9% and the EPS CAGR was 37.3%.
What should investors be cautious about when assessing Super Micro's past growth?
-The high historical growth rates may not be sustainable long-term, and the cash flows have been quite volatile historically, so past growth can be misleading.
What approach was used to value Super Micro stock?
-A discounted cash flow analysis was done using historical 5-year average free cash flows, with low/medium/high growth scenario assumptions.
When might Super Micro stock be at a better valuation to invest in?
-If growth slows and the valuation (P/E) compresses in the future, perhaps into the 10-15x range, it likely would provide a better long-term entry point.
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