Why people believe weird things | Michael Shermer

Summary

In this engaging talk, Michael Shermer, director of the Skeptics Society, humorously explores the line between science and pseudoscience. He debunks paranormal claims, bad ideas, and 'junk science' using controlled experiments, like testing a dubious marijuana-detection device. Shermer emphasizes the importance of skepticism in science, remembering both hits and misses in data analysis, and encourages a natural explanation-first approach to extraordinary claims.

Takeaways

• 🔍 Michael Shermer is the director of the Skeptics Society and publisher of 'Skeptic' magazine, which investigates paranormal claims, pseudo-science, and fringe beliefs.
• 🕵️‍♂️ The Skeptics Society is likened to a 'bunko squad' that debunks bad ideas and promotes good ones, similar to the role of consumer advocate Ralph Nader.
• 🍀 The Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod, a device purported to detect marijuana, is highlighted as an example of pseudo-scientific nonsense, with a controlled experiment showing its effectiveness at chance levels.
• 🎯 The importance of considering both hits and misses in evaluating claims, a principle often overlooked by those who remember only the successful predictions made by psychics and astrologers.
• 🧠 The discussion on the future of intelligence suggests that people are getting smarter, with an average increase of three IQ points every 10 years.
• 🤔 Science is described not as a static entity but as a process, a verb, that seeks natural explanations for phenomena, contrasting with the static explanations often provided by intelligent design arguments.
• 🛸 The likelihood of various phenomena, such as UFOs, being the result of hoaxes or misperceptions rather than extraterrestrial visitations is emphasized.
• 🌌 The story of Galileo's observations of Saturn and the development of a proper theory of planetary rings illustrates the importance of both good data and sound theory in scientific discovery.
• 👁️ The human tendency to see patterns and faces, even where none exist, as seen in the 'Face on Mars' and various religious icon sightings, is a cognitive bias that can lead to false beliefs.
• 🎶 The segment on auditory illusions, like hearing 'Satan' in a reversed song, demonstrates how expectations can shape perception and lead to false interpretations.
• 🎉 A positive note is ended on, with the story of pop singer Katie Melua correcting the scientific inaccuracy in her song lyrics about the observable universe's size after being educated by a science writer.

Q & A

What is the primary role of the Skeptics Society as described by Michael Shermer?

The Skeptics Society, led by Michael Shermer, investigates claims of the paranormal, pseudo-science, fringe groups, cults, and various claims between science and non-science, aiming to debunk false claims and replace bad ideas with good ones.

What is the term often used to describe the Skeptics Society's work, and how does Shermer feel about it?

The term 'debunkers' is often used to describe the work of the Skeptics Society. Shermer acknowledges the term but notes it has a negative connotation, emphasizing that their goal is to expose and correct misinformation.

What is the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod, and why was it controversial?

The Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod is a device that was sold to high-school administrators for $900 each, claiming to detect marijuana in students' lockers. It was controversial because it was essentially a piece of plastic with an antenna, and its effectiveness was no better than random chance.

How did Michael Shermer demonstrate the ineffectiveness of the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod during his talk?

Shermer demonstrated the ineffectiveness of the Quadro 2000 Dowser Rod by conducting a controlled experiment with two opaque boxes, one containing marijuana and the other empty, showing that the device could only identify the correct box 50% of the time, equivalent to a coin toss.

What is the key lesson from Shermer's talk about how psychics, astrologers, and tarot card readers operate?

The key lesson is that people tend to remember the 'hits' or correct predictions made by psychics and similar practitioners and forget the 'misses' or incorrect ones. In science, it's important to keep track of both to determine if the number of hits significantly exceeds what would be expected by chance.

What is the significance of the phrase 'science is a verb' as used by Michael Shermer?

The phrase 'science is a verb' signifies that science is not a static body of knowledge but an active process of inquiry and investigation. It's a way of thinking and seeking natural explanations for phenomena.

What is the purpose of the 'Skeptic' magazine, and what is its approach to topics like intelligent design?

The 'Skeptic' magazine is a quarterly publication that critically examines various claims, including intelligent design. It promotes skepticism and scientific inquiry, often dismantling arguments that lack empirical evidence or testability.

How does Michael Shermer use the example of crop circles to illustrate the principle of seeking natural explanations?

Shermer uses the example of crop circles to show that before attributing such phenomena to extraterrestrial intelligences or other extraordinary causes, it's important to consider more mundane explanations, such as human intervention, which in this case was done using Photoshop.

What cognitive biases does Shermer mention that can affect the way people interpret data or perceive phenomena?

Shermer mentions several cognitive biases, including the tendency to see faces in random patterns (pareidolia), the inclination to find patterns in grainy or unclear data, and the readiness to believe in extraordinary claims without sufficient evidence.

What is the story of Katie Melua and her song 'Nine Million Bicycles in Beijing' as related by Shermer?

Katie Melua wrote a song with a line about being '12 billion light-years from the edge,' which was corrected by science educator Simon Singh to '13.7 billion light years' in the context of the observable universe. Melua acknowledged the error and re-recorded the song with the corrected lyric, demonstrating a commitment to accuracy.

How does Michael Shermer use the example of auditory illusions to demonstrate the power of suggestion?

Shermer plays a famous song backwards and, after suggesting that listeners will hear the word 'Satan,' they indeed report hearing it. This demonstrates how the power of suggestion can influence perception, even in the absence of actual content.