COULD KAMALA BEAT TRUMP?
Summary
TLDRThe transcript discusses the potential implications of an open Democratic nomination process if Joe Biden were to drop out. It highlights the importance of a swift replacement and the challenges Kamala Harris might face, given her current approval ratings and the need for strong messaging. The conversation also touches on the perceived lack of unity within the Democratic party and the risks of an open convention, suggesting that a clear and decisive strategy is crucial for maintaining voter confidence and avoiding chaos.
Takeaways
- ๐ Nancy Pelosi is considering an open nomination process if Biden drops out, which some believe could lead to chaos and lack of unity within the Democratic party.
- ๐ณ AOC's comments on the Democratic party's lack of a clear vision for a swift replacement have been validated, highlighting potential internal conflicts.
- ๐ตโโ๏ธ Some California House Democrats are against a rushed process to replace the president, fearing it could be seen as a coronation for Kamala Harris.
- ๐จ The idea of an open convention is seen as a bad move by some, as it could lead to disorder and a lack of confidence in the Democratic party's ability to organize effectively.
- ๐ก There is a concern that the Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' could be damaged if they fail to present a unified front during the convention.
- ๐ The Democratic party's main advantage over the Republicans is perceived stability and order, which could be compromised by an open convention.
- ๐ฎ Kamala Harris's potential as a replacement candidate is debated, with some arguing she could be a fresh face but others questioning her charisma and current approval ratings.
- ๐ฌ The importance of messaging and how Harris is presented as a candidate is emphasized, as it could significantly impact voter perception and support.
- ๐ There is a suggestion that other Democrats, such as Gretchen Whitmer or JB Pritzker, might be better candidates to replace Biden, based on their track records and popularity.
- ๐ก Republicans are reportedly strategizing to keep Biden on the ballot in swing states, indicating they believe he is more beatable than other potential Democratic candidates.
Q & A
What does Nancy Pelosi's support for an open nomination process imply if Biden drops out?
-Nancy Pelosi's support for an open nomination process if Biden drops out suggests that she is open to a broader discussion and selection process for a new Democratic candidate, which could lead to a more democratic and inclusive approach within the party.
Why does the speaker believe an open convention is a bad idea?
-The speaker believes an open convention is a bad idea because it would lead to chaos and disorder, potentially damaging the Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' and undermining confidence in their ability to manage a smooth transition of leadership.
What is the speaker's view on Kamala Harris as a potential replacement for Biden?
-The speaker is skeptical about Kamala Harris as a potential replacement, citing her lack of a solid team and effective messaging, and suggesting that her appointment could lead to further chaos and a lack of clear vision for the party.
What does the speaker think about the importance of messaging in the context of a potential new Democratic candidate?
-The speaker emphasizes the crucial role of messaging, stating that if Kamala Harris or any other candidate is appointed, they must play their part effectively and present a dynamic and fresh face to the public to gain support and investment.
How does the speaker view the current situation with Biden's potential stepping down and the Democratic party's response?
-The speaker criticizes the Democratic party's handling of the situation, suggesting that their lack of a clear and swift replacement plan reflects poorly on their ability to manage and could lead to a loss of confidence among voters.
What is the speaker's opinion on the Democratic party's advantage over the Republicans?
-The speaker believes that the Democratic party's main advantage is being perceived as the 'adults in the room,' in contrast to the chaotic and divided Republicans, and that this perception is crucial for maintaining voter support.
What does the speaker suggest about the potential impact of an open convention on the Democratic party's image?
-The speaker suggests that an open convention would expose the Democratic party's internal divisions and lack of consensus, which could damage their image and make them appear as chaotic as the Republicans.
How does the speaker evaluate the importance of a swift replacement for Biden?
-The speaker argues that a swift replacement is crucial to maintain momentum and confidence in the Democratic party, and to avoid the chaos and disorder that an open convention could bring.
What are the speaker's thoughts on the potential benefits of having more attention on an open convention?
-The speaker argues that the potential benefits of increased attention do not outweigh the risks of chaos and disorder that an open convention would bring, and that a clear and decisive approach is preferable.
What alternative candidates does the speaker suggest as better replacements for Biden?
-The speaker suggests that Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker might be better alternatives to Kamala Harris, as they have proven track records and are popular, which could help capture the support of key demographics.
Outlines
๐ข Pelosi's Open Convention Support Sparks Debate
The speaker discusses the implications of Nancy Pelosi's potential support for an open nomination process if Biden were to withdraw, highlighting AOC's comments on the Democratic party's lack of unity and clear vision for a successor. The analysis suggests that Pelosi's stance could lead to chaos and disorder within the party, undermining the public's confidence in Democrats as the 'adults in the room.' The script also touches on the importance of a swift and decisive replacement for Biden to maintain momentum and public trust.
๐ The Risks of an Immediate Biden Replacement
This paragraph delves into the potential consequences of a sudden replacement of Biden, emphasizing the importance of messaging and public perception. It argues that Kamala Harris, as a potential successor, needs to be carefully positioned to avoid alienating certain demographics. The speaker also addresses the loyalty of voters to Biden and the potential for an open convention to exacerbate existing divisions within the Democratic party, ultimately benefiting Trump.
๐๏ธ The Importance of Unity and Messaging in Democratic Succession
The speaker stresses the importance of a coherent narrative and unity within the Democratic party when considering a successor to Biden. They argue against an open convention, suggesting it would reveal internal conflicts and undermine the party's image as the more stable alternative to the Republicans. The paragraph also explores alternative candidates to Harris, such as Gretchen Whitmer and JB Pritzker, and the significance of Biden's legacy in the decision-making process.
๐ Public Opinion and the Dynamics of the Presidential Race
This section examines public opinion polls and the potential impact of Biden's age and perceived cognitive decline on the election. It discusses the challenges Kamala Harris might face in a presidential run, including her charisma and approval ratings, while also considering the Republicans' strategy to keep Biden on the ballot. The speaker suggests that a swift and strategic replacement of Biden could improve the Democrats' chances in the election.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กOpen Nomination Process
๐กUnity
๐กKamala Harris
๐กDemocratic Operative
๐กChaos
๐กMessaging
๐กConfidence
๐กRepublicans
๐กVoter Public
๐กApproval Rating
๐กVice Presidential Pick
Highlights
Pelosi's support for an open nomination process if Biden drops out is seen as a significant development.
AOC's comments on the lack of unity behind a potential candidate like Kamala Harris are confirmed as correct.
Concerns are raised about the Democratic party's inability to present a clear vision for a swift replacement if Biden steps down.
The idea of an open convention is considered by some to be a devastating and chaotic proposition.
Some California House Democrats oppose the idea of a rushed replacement process that could be perceived as a Kamala Harris coronation.
An anonymous Democratic operative expresses frustration with the current situation, referencing a 'coconut tree' meme.
The importance of having a solid team and messaging around Kamala Harris for her potential run is discussed.
The potential benefits of an open convention are weighed against the risks of chaos and disorder.
The Democratic party's image as the 'adults in the room' is highlighted as a key advantage over the Republicans.
The potential for an open convention to reveal internal divisions and undermine confidence in the Democratic party is noted.
The strategy of a swift replacement for Biden to maintain momentum and continuity is suggested.
The role of messaging in shaping public perception of a new candidate, such as Kamala Harris, is emphasized.
The importance of confidence in the Democratic party's ability to manage a transition is discussed in relation to voter trust.
The potential for an open convention to create a panic environment and show a lack of succession planning is highlighted.
The impact of an open convention on different voter demographics, such as Hispanics and young people, is considered.
The argument is made that an open convention could damage the Democratic party's narrative of stability and confidence.
Alternative candidates to Kamala Harris, such as Gretchen Whitmer and J.B. Pritzker, are suggested as potentially stronger replacements.
The potential for an open convention to be used as a tool to disrupt the Democratic party's unity and strategy is noted.
The timing and logistics of a potential candidate replacement are discussed in relation to election deadlines.
The current approval ratings of Kamala Harris and Joe Biden are compared, with implications for a potential ticket change.
The Republican party's strategy to potentially use legal means to keep Biden on the ballot is mentioned.
The importance of charisma in a candidate is debated, with references to both Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.
Transcripts
Pelosi voice support for an open
nomination process if Biden drops out
that is the reason why I'm going to be
talking about what AOC said today
because turns out she is right on that
she was right about the chaotic lack of
unity behind like KLA Harris I mean I
said she's either lying which I don't
think she is or she's being brutally
honest and like breaking caucus and like
revealing something that's pretty
significant and it turns out she is
correct on this this is the one thing
that I've said is like a a worse option
than just going with Brandon there's
reporting right now on Nancy Pelosi
saying that she'd be up for an open
contest uh an open convention and I
think that is genuinely a devastating
idea I don't think it's a good idea at
all Pelosi voicing support for an open
nomination process Biden drops out it
quite literally immediately proves what
AOC was saying about the about the
Democrats not having like a cleare eyed
Vision on a swift replacement um some
California House Democrats don't want
the process to replace the president on
the tiet get to seem like a KLA Harris
coronation and I think that that is a
genuinely bad idea I think that that
spells chaos it spells disorder there is
no world in which the the entire
American voter public that is like
interested in voting turns around and
says like yeah I like that the
Democratic party which are supposed to
be the adults in the room cannot get
their ducks in a row uh before the
goddamn convention this CNN article
quotes you as a democratic operative f
it I'm coconut pilled I just want this
to stop said one well-known Democratic
operative referring to an online meme
that is taken off from an old video you
think you just fell out of a coconut
tree you think you just fell out of a
coconut
tree you exist in the
context of all in which you live and
what came before you no chat that's not
me they did not ask me this is an
anonymous quote from a Dem operative
that is well known why would they put me
down as a demn operative why would I
give an anonymous quote your confidence
in comma seems wild to be honest what
Americans want is a new ticket they want
someone they can be happy with and that
will never be Kamala comma is new kamla
is Young if kamla has a solid team
around her which she currently doesn't
with good messaging you absolutely could
make a decent job out of kamla Harris
she's 59 yeah guys we're talking about
the president she's 32 years younger
than the current person on the ticket or
not 32 sorry 22 you're right I feel like
you're radically overvaluing comma and
undervaluing the interest of chaos no
the benefits of having more attention
and more eyeballs on an open convention
do not outweigh the consequences of
having an an open convention if you guys
think this is chaos otic an open
convention where like everyone is
talking about oh my God the Democrats
finally got their wishes they finally
got Joe Biden out but now they can't
even [ย __ย ] have a consensus candidate
that is real chaos you have not seen
real chaos until you see what that looks
like in the media that plays itself out
as total disorder Full Tilt right now
there's like a little bit of will he
won't he situation there's a little bit
of interest but if they were to replace
the ticket immediately swiftly and then
start moving on and be like this is the
new this is the new uh party this is the
new modus operandi we're going to we're
going to take it to the next level we're
going to take Joe Biden's vision and
Legacy and we're going to take it across
the finish line and we're going to do
even more than we did before and um they
have solid messaging around it and there
is uh confidence that's very different
than like literally in the middle of
August at the end of August still not
having a candidate I I think that that
absolutely rips away the final like the
limited amount of confidence that people
might have that the Democratic party is
still like you know doing the right
thing and are the adults in the room
because you have to remember the
Democratic party being the adults in the
room is the number one benefit that they
have over the Republicans the
Republicans are always chaotic the
Republicans are basically violent in
their uh legislative agenda but also
beyond that they can't figure out which
direction they want to go in they some
of them try to be more moderate others
are openly being contentious and openly
being aggressive towards uh women's
bodily autonomy in ways that remind
people that they took away abortion
people look to the Democratic party as
the party that's going to defend
democracy people look to the Republican
party as the party whether good or bad
as the party that's going to do their
willing okay do their bidding do and and
follow through on their agenda no matter
how cha and undemocratic that agenda
might be absolute brain dead takes Biden
dropping out now is literally handing
Trump the election so dumb you just came
in here with zero analysis and just
vibes okay just came in here hot and was
like no you don't understand the 82y old
that everyone understands is is is brain
capacity is deteriorated is actually the
best possible person if they do a quick
swap out it won't work dude KLA Harris
also bring BRS back certain demographics
immediately into question like the
average American doesn't think as much
as you guys do about politics that's
something you have to remember I love
this chatter said the commies the
average genzer even is going to be like
oh yeah that's a younger person I'm
interested I'm invested that's why I say
what KLA Harris does if she is appointed
as the nominee is very important in
terms of messaging very very important
in terms of messaging because like when
people are locked in and they go oh this
is a new fresh face this is a more
vibrant candidate a more Dynamic
candidate then she has to play that part
then she has to play that role if she's
barred out like she's been goofing
around the entire time for the past four
years then then it's it's going to be
harder easier than Joe Biden but hard
nonetheless because every single person
that is polling for Biden right now in
every single poll that has been
conducted is going to vote for whoever
the [ย __ย ] the blue person is because
their motivations for voting for Biden
is not because they love Biden their
motivations for voting for Biden as
demonstrated by those exact same polls
is that they don't want Donald Trump
that ambition was alive and well in 2020
and it certainly is Alive and Well in
the 2024 election we know that we've
seen it every poll shows that reality no
matter who is at the top of that ticket
they have all of Biden's votes that they
will secure and plus some more on top of
that this is the calculation that I'm
making the calculation I'm making is
that there are no uh Biden or Busters in
the same way that there were Bernier
Busters right even though those were
marginal as well this is the part where
lib say you can't trust the polls I know
if you believe that why not have an open
convention oh I I've I've told you
already the reason why I don't think
it's open convention is a smart idea is
because then you actually do have some
people who are like well I'm loyalist
for Nome it's kind of like this twitch
streamers know not to pull which game to
play next and they just play it and they
say hey if you like it you watch if you
don't like it you don't why because if
you pull which game you want to play
next you will lose more people because
the people that really wanted you to
play one game will just out of anger not
watch the other game not everyone but a
lot of people will turn around and go oh
well I voted for this game and now
you're playing a different game and you
know what maybe I would have watched it
but I kind of don't want to watch that
game that you're playing now more
importantly than that an open convention
is specifically dangerous because it
shows that there is no consensus right
now Biden wants Confidence from his
party and his party is not showing him
confidence because they're seeing the
polls Biden is also relying on being
able to get to the convention true
democracy is always a bad idea no
democracy comes after in the general
election in this circumstance but even
then it's not a real democracy I'm just
telling you guys if you want my analysis
on this sometimes it's good to limit the
options and then go what do you want
anyway having said that the Democrats
already did that in the primaries they
stopped the primary process from
actually occurring by literally making
sure that no one else in the Democratic
party that had any viability ran against
Joe Biden because they didn't want Joe
Biden to go out and have to campaign in
the primary
they thought that he'd be weaker as a
consequence of that they thought that
people would hear him and go oh [ย __ย ]
he's old that's precisely the reason why
they already shut down the Democracy
part open convention is the best to
restore trust in the sections of the bo
voter base like Hispanics young people
industrial belt none of these people are
coming out because wow she's younger
than Joe Biden she's being thrown into a
defeat with no plan no the reason why I
think kamla Harris uh is like the Swift
replacement ticket is because it buys
time to ret triangulate the messaging
around her cuz is again time is of the
essence in this circumstance every
moment is going to count which is why
Biden should have dropped out far before
this moment I'm not saying commus
chances are an absolute lock I'm simply
stating that commus Chances Are Better
Than Biden's and given that this is a
close contest right now that's good
enough and with only upsides having said
that however if KLA Harris is the Swift
replacement and then she sucks then
obviously that that equation changes
open convention on the other hand will
create a panic environment will show
that the Democrats do not have a good uh
lineage like a good lineup a good
succession protocol you will have people
with their own dogs in the fight you
will have people that will at a moment
when you know the Democratic party needs
to be United you will have people
fighting against one another openly the
media will love the drama Jen disagrees
with you on this I know I think he'll
come around to this Jen has been right
about the obvious need to replace Joe
Biden because he's so old just like I
was right on that front Jen and I have a
disagreement on the open uh the open
primaries I think the O I mean not open
primaries open convention we have a
difference in opinion on that front but
it doesn't matter I I mean I'm telling
you what my position is on the matter
the Democratic party's number one
benefit over the Republican party right
now is that there're supposed to be the
adults in the room the Republicans are
uh divided the Republicans are chaotic
the Republicans spell disorder they're
led by a guy who wants to be a dictator
these are all of the concerns that
voters have about the Republican party
and that's why they say they're never
going to vote for Donald Trump if
Democrats basically cast that aside if
they just drop that then they have
nothing they just have abortion that's
it and as time passes less and less
people remember abortion and how
Republicans took that away I don't think
KLA Harris is the best possible
replacement you guys know who I think is
a better replacement than KLA Harris
I've said Gretchen Whitmer I think JB
pritzker would be fine I think there are
better Democrats out there they have
proven track records they're very
popular and they could Captivate the
Rust Belt having said that however Karis
already being on the ticket plays a
major role in this situation because
it's like it's a way to basically say
well Joe Biden this is the person that
you chose to replace you this is the
person that you said would be great as
president that's why you made her your
vice president it's a way to also save
the Democratic party's attitude because
then you can just simply say no no no
you don't understand Joe Biden always
knew that KLA Harris would be a
phenomenal president and that's why he
chose her as his VP this is a way to
continue the legacy of Joe Biden and the
legacy of the past four years and the
policies of the past four years now
obviously you and I might not agree with
that narrative like I mean what what
Legacy who gives a [ย __ย ] Joe Biden but
that makes a coherent replacement
narrative that you can set that you can
campaign on random person coming in at
the last second on the other hand makes
it seem like maybe Joe Biden's Legacy is
dog [ย __ย ] and then people go well why the
am I re why am I voting for the
Democrats again then because the past
four years they just suck then I guess
they don't even have any confidence in
their own Administration what the should
I have confidence in them electoral
politics brain ass my job is to do this
yes if you're not invested at all and if
you don't care and you're like oh it's
just a Bourgeois democracy who gives a
both parties represent the interest of
the wealthy I agree with you but like
this isn't for you then you know what I
mean this is not analysis that you
should be even interested in remotely
because it won't move the needle for you
anyway but what I'm doing here is for a
much larger audience of people who do
care about it who do care about
elections and of course I'm going to be
covering uh and I'm going to give give
you my announ analysis on the election
um during the election cycle like that
would be crazy if you don't disregard
polls why are you disregarding kamla's
terrible approval rating like Biden's
great question kamla Harris's approval
rating is VP approval rating if the P
approval rating is low the VP approval
rating is going to be low as well kamla
Harris at the top of the ticket is an
opportunity to completely change the
agenda or rather to refocus the
attention at the president itial
candidate kamla Harris and by the way
KLA Harris ran a dog [ย __ย ] primary
campaign if you guys remember the
American people want someone who is not
Donald Trump who can speak I think that
kamla Harris is not Donald Trump and she
can speak that's it and the pressure on
President Biden is growing for him to
step aside when does a decision need to
be made here wa technically not until
the delegates vote I mean Democrats
convention is August 19th in Chicago
many states have deadlines where names
have to be formally submitted for
ballots to be printed the days or even
the day after the convention that's the
other thing it's like if there is a if
there is a contested convention like it
can run beyond the dates of the
convention too if I'm not mistaken yeah
K is also more popular than uh Joe Biden
which is not saying much because Biden
is underwater comm's disapprovals at 50%
approvals at 38.6 Biden's disapproval is
at 56% approvals at 38.5 a youo Paul
conducted more Democrats than
Independence who lean Democrat prefer
Biden over Harris's the nominee 47 to 32
while 21% said they weren't sure margin
of error 4% yeah I'm telling you right
now this is the reason why I said the
replacement must be Swift and then KLA
Harris has to start campaigning like a
demon do I really think Harris can beat
Trump I think depending on how this
campaign restructures itself and how
messages going forward yes yes I do it's
there are so many factors at play who
her vice presidential pick is because
people will care about that this time
around perhaps a little bit more than
they normally would because this is a
this is a unique predicament all of the
polling being conducted right now is
being conducted as Biden is refusing to
step down is being conducted at a time
when kamla Harris's approval rating is
still tied to the president which is why
it's lower than it would be like if
she's the governor of her own State then
her approval rating would be
unimaginably high this does not reflect
the presidential ticket at all it's like
looking at Gretchen whitmer's approval
rating currently and then comparing it
to kamla Harris is like no that's her
own person that's being analyzed by
herself KLA Harris as the VP which is a
you know basically a a a secondary to
the actual uh Administration if the
administration is actually unpopular
then yeah obviously KLA Harris is going
to be seen as is unpopular as well
Republicans actually want Biden to be a
top the ticket uh because they think
they can actually beat him and that he's
the best person uh that they have the
opportunity to take down so you have two
efforts s sort of going on behind the
scenes number one you have this talk
about suing to keep Biden on the ballots
in these swing States Republicans think
that there are a number of local laws
and regulations they can sort of look to
point to to try to use the legal system
to keep Biden at top the ballot hm
that's weird perhaps that should be a
inclination for those who are still
holding out I I'm just I'm just saying
perhaps any
soundmind person who wants the Democrats
to win or at least the the Republicans
to not win would look at this motivation
from the Republican party and go hm
maybe the the candidate is not the best
possible candidate you're kicking Joe
Biden while he's bravely battling covid
yes true I am doing that I don't care
you said for 4 years car Harris has no
Charisma do you really think she even
has a chance against Trump wait Cara
Harris has no Charisma you're not wrong
having said that however you know who
else has no Charisma Joseph robinet
Biden who can't even speak clearly and
yet he's still in a 50/50 dead Lock so
yeah no I think I'm going to take my
chances with a person who can speak with
no Charisma versus the person who can't
speak with no charisma
5.0 / 5 (0 votes)