How to be a more strategic thinker

Summary

This video discusses the synergy between human creativity and computer analysis, exemplified by centaur chess teams that outperform AI alone. It emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and forward planning, introducing the concept of 'what-if' analysis for personal and financial decision-making. The speaker shares personal examples and tools, such as a budget modeler, to illustrate practical applications of strategic foresight and encourages viewers to utilize such techniques for better decision-making.

Takeaways

• 🤖 The rise of AI in chess with IBM's Deep Blue beating Gary Kasparov marked a significant moment in the history of AI, often seen as a turning point for machine intelligence.
• 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 Advanced chess, or freestyle chess, involves teams known as 'centaur teams' that combine human and computer intelligence to surpass the capabilities of either alone.
• 🏆 In a tournament described in David Epstein's book 'Range', a non-Grandmaster team with three standard chess computers defeated Hydra, the top chess-playing supercomputer at the time.
• 🧠 The symbiotic relationship between humans and computers in centaur teams highlights the strengths of both, with computers memorizing and analyzing board states and humans providing creative and unorthodox strategies.
• 🚀 The video emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and forward planning for personal and professional effectiveness.
• 🛠 The concept of 'planning mode' and 'robot mode' is introduced, where the former sets effective strategies and the latter executes them efficiently.
• 🤔 The 'what-if analysis' is presented as a strategic planning technique to anticipate future scenarios and position oneself accordingly.
• 🎓 A personal example from the speaker's college days illustrates how a 'what-if' tool helped a roommate realize that switching majors would actually put him ahead, not behind.
• 💰 The video discusses the application of 'what-if' analysis in personal finance, such as estimating housing affordability and planning for income changes.
• 📊 The speaker shares personal tools like a budget modeler and housing calculator to run financial 'what-if' scenarios, combining the strengths of tools and human strategic thinking.
• 🔗 Notion is highlighted as a powerful tool for planning and collaboration, with features that support effective work management and documentation of processes.

Q & A

What significant event in 1997 marked a milestone in the history of chess and artificial intelligence?

In 1997, IBM's Deep Blue supercomputer beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov for the first time, which is often cited as a turning point for the capabilities of artificial intelligence over human intelligence.

What is advanced chess or freestyle chess, as mentioned in the script?

Advanced chess, also known as freestyle chess, is a form of chess where teams consisting of humans and computers collaborate to play at a higher level than either could achieve alone. These teams are referred to as centaur teams.

How did the centaur teams perform in the chess tournament described in David Epstein's book 'Range'?

In the tournament, a centaur team with two non-Grandmaster players and three standard chess computers defeated Hydra, which was the top chess-playing supercomputer at the time.

What is the key takeaway from the centaur teams' success in chess?

The key takeaway is that combining the strengths of both humans and computers, through a symbiotic relationship, can lead to the best possible outcomes, leveraging the unique abilities of each to complement the other.

What are the strengths that computers bring to the table in strategic thinking and planning?

Computers can memorize and store vast amounts of data, such as millions of possible board states in chess, and analyze nearly every move a player can make given a specific board state.

How do humans contribute to the strategic thinking process in comparison to computers?

Humans offer the ability to think creatively and outside the box, devising unorthodox strategies and using the tactics provided by computers in a unique and innovative way.

What is the concept of 'planning mode' and 'robot mode' as discussed in the script?

The 'planning mode' is responsible for setting strategies and making plans, while the 'robot mode' is about executing those plans efficiently. To be productive, one must learn to work faster, stay focused, and be more efficient in the 'robot mode'.

What is the importance of forward thinking or being a 'forward thinker' in strategic planning?

Forward thinking allows individuals to anticipate future events, position themselves to take advantage of opportunities, or avoid negative consequences, thus becoming more effective in their planning and decision-making.

Can you explain the 'what-if analysis' technique mentioned in the script?

A 'what-if analysis' is a strategic planning technique that involves asking hypothetical questions like 'What if I did this?' or 'What would happen if...?' It uses available data to explore potential outcomes of different scenarios or decisions.

How can a 'what-if analysis' be applied in personal finance?

In personal finance, a 'what-if analysis' can be used to explore scenarios such as how much house one can afford, what to do with money if there's a raise or job loss, or the impact of a pay-cut. This helps in making informed financial decisions and planning for various contingencies.

What is the role of Notion in the creator's content planning and management?

Notion is used for managing work effectively, especially in a team setting. It allows for real-time collaboration on documents, sharing files, and creating Wikis for documenting processes. The creator uses Notion's database to plan videos, podcasts, and other content, tracking their progress and release schedules.

How has the creator utilized Notion's features to improve video production?

The creator uses Notion's powerful templating system to generate new video projects, which automatically provides a place to write scripts, add formatting and comments, and includes checklists for each stage of the video production process.

What is the current status of Notion's personal plan in terms of cost?

As of the script's recording, Notion's personal plan is completely free, with no trial period or block limits, making it accessible for individual use without cost.

Outlines

00:00

🤖 Human-Computer Collaboration in Chess

This paragraph discusses the evolution of chess from the historic defeat of world champion Gary Kasparov by IBM's Deep Blue in 1997 to the current era where advanced chess, or freestyle chess, involves teams of humans and computers, known as centaur teams. These teams leverage the strengths of both humans and computers to achieve higher levels of play than either could alone. The paragraph emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and the symbiotic relationship between humans and technology, highlighting the concept of planning and execution modes for productivity and the value of forward thinking and what-if analysis in strategic planning.

05:01

💡 Harnessing What-If Analysis for Strategic Decision Making

The second paragraph delves into the concept of what-if analysis as a strategic planning tool, illustrating its application in both personal and professional scenarios. It provides a relatable example of a college student reconsidering their major using a 'What-if Degree Audit Tool' and discusses the anxiety that financial uncertainty can cause. The speaker shares personal financial planning strategies, including using a self-built tool for budgeting and a housing calculator to make informed decisions about expenses and potential changes in income. The paragraph concludes by advocating for the use of such analytical tools in conjunction with human strategic thinking to enhance decision-making and avoid future pitfalls.

Keywords

💡Notion

Notion is a productivity software mentioned in the video as a tool for managing work and planning projects. It is praised for its powerful collaboration features and templates that help with various tasks, including creating scripts and checklists for video production. The video highlights that Notion's personal plan is free, making it accessible for individual users.

💡Deep Blue

Deep Blue is an IBM supercomputer famous for defeating world champion chess player Gary Kasparov in 1997. This event is noted in the video as a significant moment in the history of artificial intelligence, symbolizing the rise of machine intelligence in areas traditionally dominated by humans, like chess.

💡Centaur Teams

Centaur teams refer to groups consisting of both humans and computers working together to play chess at a higher level than either could achieve alone. The video explains that these teams combine the computational power of computers with human creativity and strategic thinking, leading to superior performance in chess tournaments.

💡Advanced Chess

Advanced Chess, also known as freestyle chess, is a form of chess where human players use computers to assist them during games. The concept is discussed in the video to illustrate the potential of human-computer collaboration in achieving better outcomes than either could independently.

💡What-if Analysis

A what-if analysis is a strategic planning tool that involves asking hypothetical questions to predict future outcomes based on available data. The video suggests using this technique to anticipate and prepare for various scenarios in personal and professional contexts, enhancing decision-making and strategic planning.

💡Degree Audit Report

A Degree Audit Report is a tool used by universities to track students' progress toward their degrees. The video mentions a What-if Degree Audit Tool that allows students to see how changing majors would affect their academic progress, helping them make informed decisions about their educational paths.

💡Monte Carlo Simulations

Monte Carlo simulations are advanced statistical techniques used to model and analyze complex systems by running numerous simulations. The video references these simulations as an example of sophisticated what-if analyses used in data science and business to predict outcomes and make informed decisions.

💡Sunk Cost Fallacy

The sunk cost fallacy is the misconception that one should continue an endeavor because of the invested resources, even if it's no longer beneficial. The video uses this concept to explain why people might hesitate to change majors or careers despite better opportunities, highlighting the importance of making decisions based on future benefits rather than past investments.

💡Budget Modeler

A budget modeler is a tool or spreadsheet used to plan and track finances by inputting income and expenses. The video describes how the creator uses a budget modeler to run what-if scenarios, helping him make informed financial decisions, such as determining affordability and planning for potential changes in income.

💡Strategic Thinking

Strategic thinking involves planning and making decisions based on long-term goals and potential future scenarios. The video emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking in achieving productivity and effectiveness, particularly through techniques like what-if analysis and the integration of tools like Notion.

Highlights

Video sponsored by Notion, now free for personal use.

1997 marked a historic chess event where IBM's Deep Blue defeated world champion Gary Kasparov.

Advanced chess or freestyle chess involves human-computer teams, known as centaur teams, playing at higher levels than computers alone.

Centaur teams combine human creativity with computer analysis for superior chess play.

In a tournament described in 'Range', a non-Grandmaster team with computers defeated the top chess supercomputer Hydra.

The video emphasizes the importance of symbiotic relationships between human and machine strengths.

Strategic thinking involves planning and robot modes for productivity and effectiveness.

What-if analysis is introduced as a strategic planning technique to anticipate future scenarios.

What-if analysis can range from simple questions to complex simulations like Monte Carlo methods.

A real-life example of what-if analysis is given with a college student considering a major switch.

The video discusses the use of a Degree Audit Report and a What-if Degree Audit Tool for making informed decisions.

Financial what-if scenarios are explored regarding housing affordability and job stability.

The presenter shares personal budgeting tools for running what-if financial analyses.

A housing calculator is mentioned for estimating monthly costs and comparing with rent.

The video concludes with the presenter's use of Notion for business planning and collaboration.

Notion's personal plan is highlighted as being completely free, with options to upgrade for team use.

A call to action is made for viewers to try Notion, with a link provided in the description.

Transcripts

- This video is sponsored by Notion,

which is now completely free for personal use.

Check it out, I have a link in the description down below.

(groovy music)

In 1997, history was made in the world of chess

when IBM's Deep Blue super computer finally beat

world champion chess player Gary Kasparov

for the first time.

This moment has often been cited as the death nail

for the superiority of human intelligence,

and the rise of the machines.

But if you look at the highest levels of play

in the world of chess now, they aren't dominated

solely by computers.

Instead, as is detailed in David Epstein's book "Range",

which I highly recommend, by the way,

there's a form of chess called advanced chess,

or sometimes freestyle chess,

where teams of humans and computers

pool their collective resources

to play at a higher level

than the computers can achieve on their own.

These teams are called centaur teams,

and in a tournament that was described in the book,

a team consisting of two people,

who were both not Grandmasters,

and three normal chess computers beat Hydra,

which at the time was the top chess-playing super computer.

These centaur teams are essentially the result

of an admission that both our human minds

and the computers that we use have their weaknesses,

and that when you develop a symbiotic relationship,

where both bring their strengths to the table

and play off each other,

you get the best possible combination.

On one hand, the computers are able to memorize

and store millions of possible board states

and analyze nearly every move that a player can make

given one of those board states, but on the other hand,

humans have a unique ability to think creatively,

to think outside of the box,

and to make unorthodox strategies

using the tactics provided by these computers,

and this combination, this realization

that man and machine, or rather we and our tools

work best in tandem

is key to learning how to think strategically,

which itself is one part of

being overall a productive and effective person.

In the past, I've talked about the idea

that you have a planning mode and a robot mode,

where the robot mode executes on the plans

laid by the planning mode, and if you want to be productive

with your robot mode, you have to learn how to work faster,

how to stay focused for longer,

how to be more efficient with your moves.

But just as important is the effectiveness

of the planning mode, the plans you make.

The strategies you set into motion

need to be effective at moving you towards your goals,

and I wanna talk about one specific aspect

of strategic thinking in this video,

which is the act of looking ahead,

of being a forward thinker.

If you can anticipate what's going to happen

in the future, and either position yourself

to take advantage of that, or position yourself

to sidestep as many of the consequences

that say a negative event would bring,

then you overall become more effective.

And one specific technique that is often used

in strategic planning, in forward thinking

is called the what-if analysis,

and this is what I'm hoping you'll be able to use

in your own life after you watch this video.

Essentially, a what-if analysis

is a mechanism for asking the question what if.

What if I did this, what if I did that?

What if I took one certain specific type of action,

what would happen?

A what-if analysis asks this question

and then uses the available data

to get the most accurate potential answer possible.

Now these what-if analyses can be incredibly complex,

going all the way up to the Monte Carlo simulations

that are run at data science companies

and huge businesses, where they'll run

hundreds of thousands, even millions

of different simulated scenarios to get an answer

that is as close to the truth as they can.

But they can also be a lot simpler,

and a lot more applicable to your own life,

and I wanna give you a couple examples.

So my favorite example here

comes from back when I was in college.

I had a roommate who was in computer engineering

for two years, and after a couple of years,

it got to the point where he was realizing

he really didn't wanna be in that major.

He wanted to switch, but he was scared to do it

because he was afraid that switching majors

would put him far behind where he was.

He was kind of giving in to that sunk cost fallacy,

feeling like all of this effort he'd already put in

was going to be worthless if he switched his major.

Well as it turns out, our university has this tool

called a Degree Audit Report,

where you can essentially see how far you are along

in your chosen major, in your chosen degree

with all the classes you've taken so far.

But our university had what was called

a What-if Degree Audit Tool as well,

where you could choose any major they offered

and see where you would be

if you were to switch to that major.

And the funny thing is when he ran a what-if degree audit

for the major he wanted to switch to,

turns out he was actually further into that major

than into his own major.

So by switching, he put himself ahead a little bit,

but he was only able to do that

because he was able to use data,

to ask a question and get an accurate answer

by running a what-if analysis.

For another example,

let's ask some questions about your money,

such as how much house could you afford right now?

What price of house would you be able to buy right now,

or what could you do with your money if you got a raise?

What would you do with your money

if you lost your job, or had to take a pay-cut right now?

These questions can bring a lot of anxiety,

especially when you don't feel like you have the ability

to get the answer.

So what if you had a tool

where you could input your income,

input your expenses, and then see exactly how much money

was left over at the end of the month

after it goes through some calculations?

Well, this is what I actually do every single month.

I've built this kind of a tool for myself

so I can input those numbers,

and then I can run these what-if scenarios.

What if I made more money?

What if I maybe wanted to hire somebody else?

Could I afford to hire that person,

or would I be in the red at the end of the month

when I looked at my leftover column?

For housing, I've actually built myself

a housing calculator, where I can put any purchase price,

and I can see what my estimated monthly cost

of ownership would be.

I can then compare that against my rent,

I can put that into the expenses column,

and I can see, is there money left over

at the end of the month given that purchase price?

Or do I need to save up a bit more?

Do I need to make more money?

Asking these questions and then inputting numbers

into this budget modeler spreadsheet that I have built

represents that combination

between the strengths of our tools

and the strengths of our own minds.

I'm able to run this what-if scenario

and get a fairly accurate picture

because the spreadsheet has the ability

to be insanely detail-oriented.

It can hold all these numbers at once.

It can perform all of these calculations,

but I am able to make the strategic plans

to think big picture, and combining this tool and this tool,

I'm able to make better decisions.

So hopefully this overview has given you at least one tool

for making more strategic decisions in your future,

and with regards to the specific budget modeler,

this seriously does help me make really,

really good decisions with my money.

It helps me sidestep potential problems

I could get myself into in the future,

so I'm gonna have a templated version

linked in the description down below.

You can make a copy of it,

you can input your own numbers,

make whatever changes you want to it,

and hopefully you find it as helpful as I do.

Of course, running a business

requires a lot more than just simple budget planning,

which is why I use a lot of other tools as well,

ranging from analytics platforms

to specialized research tools,

but the place where I do the majority

of my planning is Notion.

For just one example, I have this database

where I plan all the videos, podcasts,

and other content that we produce,

and this lets us know when things are going live,

what stage they're at,

and lots of other really useful information,

and because it's built on Notion's really powerful

templating system, every time I generate

a new video project,

it automatically gives me a place to write my script,

which lets me easily add formatting

and comments from my editor,

along with automatic checklists

for every stage of the video production process

and a few other cool things.

So if you're looking for a way to manage your work

more effectively, you should give Notion a try too,

especially if you're working on a team.

That's because Notion has powerful collaboration features

that let you work on documents together in real time,

share files, and even create Wikis

that keep everyone on the same page

and let you document complex processes.

In fact, that's one of my main use cases.

I am methodically building this Wiki for my company

that documents processes and shows everyone

how to do things step-by-step,

but the best part is that Notion's personal plan

is now completely free.

No trial, no block limits.

If you're using it on your own,

it is now 100% free, and if you wanna bring in a team,

you could always upgrade to their team plan at any time.

So click the link in the description down below

and give Notion a try.

As always, thank you so much for watching.

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