How to be a more strategic thinker
Summary
TLDRThis video discusses the synergy between human creativity and computer analysis, exemplified by centaur chess teams that outperform AI alone. It emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and forward planning, introducing the concept of 'what-if' analysis for personal and financial decision-making. The speaker shares personal examples and tools, such as a budget modeler, to illustrate practical applications of strategic foresight and encourages viewers to utilize such techniques for better decision-making.
Takeaways
- ๐ค The rise of AI in chess with IBM's Deep Blue beating Gary Kasparov marked a significant moment in the history of AI, often seen as a turning point for machine intelligence.
- ๐งโ๐คโ๐ง Advanced chess, or freestyle chess, involves teams known as 'centaur teams' that combine human and computer intelligence to surpass the capabilities of either alone.
- ๐ In a tournament described in David Epstein's book 'Range', a non-Grandmaster team with three standard chess computers defeated Hydra, the top chess-playing supercomputer at the time.
- ๐ง The symbiotic relationship between humans and computers in centaur teams highlights the strengths of both, with computers memorizing and analyzing board states and humans providing creative and unorthodox strategies.
- ๐ The video emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and forward planning for personal and professional effectiveness.
- ๐ The concept of 'planning mode' and 'robot mode' is introduced, where the former sets effective strategies and the latter executes them efficiently.
- ๐ค The 'what-if analysis' is presented as a strategic planning technique to anticipate future scenarios and position oneself accordingly.
- ๐ A personal example from the speaker's college days illustrates how a 'what-if' tool helped a roommate realize that switching majors would actually put him ahead, not behind.
- ๐ฐ The video discusses the application of 'what-if' analysis in personal finance, such as estimating housing affordability and planning for income changes.
- ๐ The speaker shares personal tools like a budget modeler and housing calculator to run financial 'what-if' scenarios, combining the strengths of tools and human strategic thinking.
- ๐ Notion is highlighted as a powerful tool for planning and collaboration, with features that support effective work management and documentation of processes.
Q & A
What significant event in 1997 marked a milestone in the history of chess and artificial intelligence?
-In 1997, IBM's Deep Blue supercomputer beat world chess champion Gary Kasparov for the first time, which is often cited as a turning point for the capabilities of artificial intelligence over human intelligence.
What is advanced chess or freestyle chess, as mentioned in the script?
-Advanced chess, also known as freestyle chess, is a form of chess where teams consisting of humans and computers collaborate to play at a higher level than either could achieve alone. These teams are referred to as centaur teams.
How did the centaur teams perform in the chess tournament described in David Epstein's book 'Range'?
-In the tournament, a centaur team with two non-Grandmaster players and three standard chess computers defeated Hydra, which was the top chess-playing supercomputer at the time.
What is the key takeaway from the centaur teams' success in chess?
-The key takeaway is that combining the strengths of both humans and computers, through a symbiotic relationship, can lead to the best possible outcomes, leveraging the unique abilities of each to complement the other.
What are the strengths that computers bring to the table in strategic thinking and planning?
-Computers can memorize and store vast amounts of data, such as millions of possible board states in chess, and analyze nearly every move a player can make given a specific board state.
How do humans contribute to the strategic thinking process in comparison to computers?
-Humans offer the ability to think creatively and outside the box, devising unorthodox strategies and using the tactics provided by computers in a unique and innovative way.
What is the concept of 'planning mode' and 'robot mode' as discussed in the script?
-The 'planning mode' is responsible for setting strategies and making plans, while the 'robot mode' is about executing those plans efficiently. To be productive, one must learn to work faster, stay focused, and be more efficient in the 'robot mode'.
What is the importance of forward thinking or being a 'forward thinker' in strategic planning?
-Forward thinking allows individuals to anticipate future events, position themselves to take advantage of opportunities, or avoid negative consequences, thus becoming more effective in their planning and decision-making.
Can you explain the 'what-if analysis' technique mentioned in the script?
-A 'what-if analysis' is a strategic planning technique that involves asking hypothetical questions like 'What if I did this?' or 'What would happen if...?' It uses available data to explore potential outcomes of different scenarios or decisions.
How can a 'what-if analysis' be applied in personal finance?
-In personal finance, a 'what-if analysis' can be used to explore scenarios such as how much house one can afford, what to do with money if there's a raise or job loss, or the impact of a pay-cut. This helps in making informed financial decisions and planning for various contingencies.
What is the role of Notion in the creator's content planning and management?
-Notion is used for managing work effectively, especially in a team setting. It allows for real-time collaboration on documents, sharing files, and creating Wikis for documenting processes. The creator uses Notion's database to plan videos, podcasts, and other content, tracking their progress and release schedules.
How has the creator utilized Notion's features to improve video production?
-The creator uses Notion's powerful templating system to generate new video projects, which automatically provides a place to write scripts, add formatting and comments, and includes checklists for each stage of the video production process.
What is the current status of Notion's personal plan in terms of cost?
-As of the script's recording, Notion's personal plan is completely free, with no trial period or block limits, making it accessible for individual use without cost.
Outlines
๐ค Human-Computer Collaboration in Chess
This paragraph discusses the evolution of chess from the historic defeat of world champion Gary Kasparov by IBM's Deep Blue in 1997 to the current era where advanced chess, or freestyle chess, involves teams of humans and computers, known as centaur teams. These teams leverage the strengths of both humans and computers to achieve higher levels of play than either could alone. The paragraph emphasizes the importance of strategic thinking and the symbiotic relationship between humans and technology, highlighting the concept of planning and execution modes for productivity and the value of forward thinking and what-if analysis in strategic planning.
๐ก Harnessing What-If Analysis for Strategic Decision Making
The second paragraph delves into the concept of what-if analysis as a strategic planning tool, illustrating its application in both personal and professional scenarios. It provides a relatable example of a college student reconsidering their major using a 'What-if Degree Audit Tool' and discusses the anxiety that financial uncertainty can cause. The speaker shares personal financial planning strategies, including using a self-built tool for budgeting and a housing calculator to make informed decisions about expenses and potential changes in income. The paragraph concludes by advocating for the use of such analytical tools in conjunction with human strategic thinking to enhance decision-making and avoid future pitfalls.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กNotion
๐กDeep Blue
๐กCentaur Teams
๐กAdvanced Chess
๐กWhat-if Analysis
๐กDegree Audit Report
๐กMonte Carlo Simulations
๐กSunk Cost Fallacy
๐กBudget Modeler
๐กStrategic Thinking
Highlights
Video sponsored by Notion, now free for personal use.
1997 marked a historic chess event where IBM's Deep Blue defeated world champion Gary Kasparov.
Advanced chess or freestyle chess involves human-computer teams, known as centaur teams, playing at higher levels than computers alone.
Centaur teams combine human creativity with computer analysis for superior chess play.
In a tournament described in 'Range', a non-Grandmaster team with computers defeated the top chess supercomputer Hydra.
The video emphasizes the importance of symbiotic relationships between human and machine strengths.
Strategic thinking involves planning and robot modes for productivity and effectiveness.
What-if analysis is introduced as a strategic planning technique to anticipate future scenarios.
What-if analysis can range from simple questions to complex simulations like Monte Carlo methods.
A real-life example of what-if analysis is given with a college student considering a major switch.
The video discusses the use of a Degree Audit Report and a What-if Degree Audit Tool for making informed decisions.
Financial what-if scenarios are explored regarding housing affordability and job stability.
The presenter shares personal budgeting tools for running what-if financial analyses.
A housing calculator is mentioned for estimating monthly costs and comparing with rent.
The video concludes with the presenter's use of Notion for business planning and collaboration.
Notion's personal plan is highlighted as being completely free, with options to upgrade for team use.
A call to action is made for viewers to try Notion, with a link provided in the description.
Transcripts
- This video is sponsored by Notion,
which is now completely free for personal use.
Check it out, I have a link in the description down below.
(groovy music)
In 1997, history was made in the world of chess
when IBM's Deep Blue super computer finally beat
world champion chess player Gary Kasparov
for the first time.
This moment has often been cited as the death nail
for the superiority of human intelligence,
and the rise of the machines.
But if you look at the highest levels of play
in the world of chess now, they aren't dominated
solely by computers.
Instead, as is detailed in David Epstein's book "Range",
which I highly recommend, by the way,
there's a form of chess called advanced chess,
or sometimes freestyle chess,
where teams of humans and computers
pool their collective resources
to play at a higher level
than the computers can achieve on their own.
These teams are called centaur teams,
and in a tournament that was described in the book,
a team consisting of two people,
who were both not Grandmasters,
and three normal chess computers beat Hydra,
which at the time was the top chess-playing super computer.
These centaur teams are essentially the result
of an admission that both our human minds
and the computers that we use have their weaknesses,
and that when you develop a symbiotic relationship,
where both bring their strengths to the table
and play off each other,
you get the best possible combination.
On one hand, the computers are able to memorize
and store millions of possible board states
and analyze nearly every move that a player can make
given one of those board states, but on the other hand,
humans have a unique ability to think creatively,
to think outside of the box,
and to make unorthodox strategies
using the tactics provided by these computers,
and this combination, this realization
that man and machine, or rather we and our tools
work best in tandem
is key to learning how to think strategically,
which itself is one part of
being overall a productive and effective person.
In the past, I've talked about the idea
that you have a planning mode and a robot mode,
where the robot mode executes on the plans
laid by the planning mode, and if you want to be productive
with your robot mode, you have to learn how to work faster,
how to stay focused for longer,
how to be more efficient with your moves.
But just as important is the effectiveness
of the planning mode, the plans you make.
The strategies you set into motion
need to be effective at moving you towards your goals,
and I wanna talk about one specific aspect
of strategic thinking in this video,
which is the act of looking ahead,
of being a forward thinker.
If you can anticipate what's going to happen
in the future, and either position yourself
to take advantage of that, or position yourself
to sidestep as many of the consequences
that say a negative event would bring,
then you overall become more effective.
And one specific technique that is often used
in strategic planning, in forward thinking
is called the what-if analysis,
and this is what I'm hoping you'll be able to use
in your own life after you watch this video.
Essentially, a what-if analysis
is a mechanism for asking the question what if.
What if I did this, what if I did that?
What if I took one certain specific type of action,
what would happen?
A what-if analysis asks this question
and then uses the available data
to get the most accurate potential answer possible.
Now these what-if analyses can be incredibly complex,
going all the way up to the Monte Carlo simulations
that are run at data science companies
and huge businesses, where they'll run
hundreds of thousands, even millions
of different simulated scenarios to get an answer
that is as close to the truth as they can.
But they can also be a lot simpler,
and a lot more applicable to your own life,
and I wanna give you a couple examples.
So my favorite example here
comes from back when I was in college.
I had a roommate who was in computer engineering
for two years, and after a couple of years,
it got to the point where he was realizing
he really didn't wanna be in that major.
He wanted to switch, but he was scared to do it
because he was afraid that switching majors
would put him far behind where he was.
He was kind of giving in to that sunk cost fallacy,
feeling like all of this effort he'd already put in
was going to be worthless if he switched his major.
Well as it turns out, our university has this tool
called a Degree Audit Report,
where you can essentially see how far you are along
in your chosen major, in your chosen degree
with all the classes you've taken so far.
But our university had what was called
a What-if Degree Audit Tool as well,
where you could choose any major they offered
and see where you would be
if you were to switch to that major.
And the funny thing is when he ran a what-if degree audit
for the major he wanted to switch to,
turns out he was actually further into that major
than into his own major.
So by switching, he put himself ahead a little bit,
but he was only able to do that
because he was able to use data,
to ask a question and get an accurate answer
by running a what-if analysis.
For another example,
let's ask some questions about your money,
such as how much house could you afford right now?
What price of house would you be able to buy right now,
or what could you do with your money if you got a raise?
What would you do with your money
if you lost your job, or had to take a pay-cut right now?
These questions can bring a lot of anxiety,
especially when you don't feel like you have the ability
to get the answer.
So what if you had a tool
where you could input your income,
input your expenses, and then see exactly how much money
was left over at the end of the month
after it goes through some calculations?
Well, this is what I actually do every single month.
I've built this kind of a tool for myself
so I can input those numbers,
and then I can run these what-if scenarios.
What if I made more money?
What if I maybe wanted to hire somebody else?
Could I afford to hire that person,
or would I be in the red at the end of the month
when I looked at my leftover column?
For housing, I've actually built myself
a housing calculator, where I can put any purchase price,
and I can see what my estimated monthly cost
of ownership would be.
I can then compare that against my rent,
I can put that into the expenses column,
and I can see, is there money left over
at the end of the month given that purchase price?
Or do I need to save up a bit more?
Do I need to make more money?
Asking these questions and then inputting numbers
into this budget modeler spreadsheet that I have built
represents that combination
between the strengths of our tools
and the strengths of our own minds.
I'm able to run this what-if scenario
and get a fairly accurate picture
because the spreadsheet has the ability
to be insanely detail-oriented.
It can hold all these numbers at once.
It can perform all of these calculations,
but I am able to make the strategic plans
to think big picture, and combining this tool and this tool,
I'm able to make better decisions.
So hopefully this overview has given you at least one tool
for making more strategic decisions in your future,
and with regards to the specific budget modeler,
this seriously does help me make really,
really good decisions with my money.
It helps me sidestep potential problems
I could get myself into in the future,
so I'm gonna have a templated version
linked in the description down below.
You can make a copy of it,
you can input your own numbers,
make whatever changes you want to it,
and hopefully you find it as helpful as I do.
Of course, running a business
requires a lot more than just simple budget planning,
which is why I use a lot of other tools as well,
ranging from analytics platforms
to specialized research tools,
but the place where I do the majority
of my planning is Notion.
For just one example, I have this database
where I plan all the videos, podcasts,
and other content that we produce,
and this lets us know when things are going live,
what stage they're at,
and lots of other really useful information,
and because it's built on Notion's really powerful
templating system, every time I generate
a new video project,
it automatically gives me a place to write my script,
which lets me easily add formatting
and comments from my editor,
along with automatic checklists
for every stage of the video production process
and a few other cool things.
So if you're looking for a way to manage your work
more effectively, you should give Notion a try too,
especially if you're working on a team.
That's because Notion has powerful collaboration features
that let you work on documents together in real time,
share files, and even create Wikis
that keep everyone on the same page
and let you document complex processes.
In fact, that's one of my main use cases.
I am methodically building this Wiki for my company
that documents processes and shows everyone
how to do things step-by-step,
but the best part is that Notion's personal plan
is now completely free.
No trial, no block limits.
If you're using it on your own,
it is now 100% free, and if you wanna bring in a team,
you could always upgrade to their team plan at any time.
So click the link in the description down below
and give Notion a try.
As always, thank you so much for watching.
If you enjoyed this video, hit that Like button,
show the YouTube algorithm what's up,
and if you haven't subscribed to this channel yet,
you may wanna do so by clicking right there
or smashing your face into your phone screen
if you are watching this on your phone.
Another good place to smash your face
would be over here, where you're gonna find
a couple of other videos that you can check out
if you still have some time to watch some videos,
and you're not on YouTube
distracting yourself/procrastinating,
but of course, if you wanna do that,
go ahead and do that, because as always,
I'm not your dad.
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