This BROKE The Market But It's Also What Made Me RICH (Here's How)

Summary

In this financial analysis video, Mark Moss explores the 'Codex', a method to decrypt market movements, predicting future trends. He delves into the synchronized cycles of global debt, liquidity, and asset prices, highlighting the impact of the 2008 financial crash on these patterns. Moss explains how understanding these cycles can guide investment strategies for the next 12-15 months, emphasizing the importance of timing within these cycles rather than trying to time the markets. He invites viewers to a live presentation for an in-depth look at asset categories and strategies.

Takeaways

• 🔒 The financial markets are likened to an encrypted message that is difficult to decipher, but the speaker claims to have found a way to predict market movements through 'synchronization events'.
• 📈 The speaker introduces the 'Codex', a term for a method to understand market cycles, which he believes can help in predicting market behavior and making profitable investments.
• ⏰ The concept of timing the market is debunked in favor of timing market cycles, emphasizing the impossibility of knowing the exact top or bottom of market trends.
• 💼 The speaker's motivation stems from personal experience, having lost everything in 2008 due to not paying attention to market and macroeconomic trends.
• 📊 A significant change in the market dynamics occurred in 2008, which the speaker has been analyzing to understand the new patterns and cycles.
• 🌐 The global debt has been growing steadily and is a key factor in the cycles of market movements, with the debt-based monetary system requiring constant growth.
• 📉 The speaker discusses various economic indicators such as GDP, working-age population, and birth rates, all of which are trending downward and affecting economic growth.
• 💡 The synchronization event of 2008 led to a global refinancing of debt on a four-year cycle, aligning various economic cycles and creating a pattern that can be analyzed.
• 🤔 The speaker invites viewers to a live presentation for a deeper dive into the specifics of asset allocation during different phases of the cycles.
• 🚀 Bitcoin is highlighted as an asset highly sensitive to liquidity changes, with its price movements closely tied to the ebb and flow of global liquidity.
• 📉 The speaker predicts that the current upward liquidity cycle will continue, suggesting potential profits for those who understand and act on these cycles.

Q & A

What is the main theme of the video script?

The main theme of the video script is the explanation of financial market cycles and a phenomenon that the speaker refers to as 'the Codex', which is a method to predict market movements based on debt cycles and synchronized global financial events.

What does the speaker claim about the financial markets before the synchronization event?

The speaker claims that before the synchronization event, financial markets were like an encrypted message that was difficult to decipher and posed a massive danger due to the inability to predict their movements accurately.

What significant change happened in 2008 according to the speaker?

According to the speaker, the significant change that happened in 2008 was the global financial crash, which led to a synchronization of debt cycles worldwide as many entities refinanced their debt at near-zero interest rates.

What is the 'Codex' as mentioned in the script?

The 'Codex' is described as a monetary cipher or a method to decrypt the movements of the financial markets, allowing for better understanding and prediction of market trends.

Why does the speaker emphasize the importance of understanding cycles rather than timing the markets?

The speaker emphasizes understanding cycles because no one can predict the exact top or bottom of the market. By understanding the cycles, investors can know what phase of the cycle they are in and make informed decisions about which assets to invest in.

What role does the debt-based monetary system play in the cycles discussed by the speaker?

The debt-based monetary system is fundamental to the cycles because it necessitates the continuous growth of debt. This system influences economic growth, asset prices, and the need for constant refinancing of debt, which in turn affects market cycles.

How does the synchronization of debt cycles affect asset prices?

The synchronization of debt cycles affects asset prices by creating a pattern where asset prices are pushed up as more debt is issued to refinance existing debt, following a roughly 3:1 ratio of good years to bad years in the market.

What does the speaker suggest about the future of the US public debt as projected by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO)?

The speaker suggests that the US public debt is projected by the CBO to increase significantly, reaching about 116% of GDP by 2034, which implies that the liquidity cycles will continue to grow larger.

What is the significance of the four-year cycle in the context of the script?

The four-year cycle is significant because it coincides with the debt refinancing cycle, the business cycle, the presidential election cycle, and the Bitcoin halving cycle, creating a synchronized pattern in the financial markets.

How does the speaker use the example of metronomes to explain the synchronization phenomenon in financial markets?

The speaker uses the example of metronomes to illustrate how individual entities with different cycles can eventually synchronize, similar to how various debt cycles synchronized after the 2008 financial crash, creating a unified pattern in market movements.

What is the importance of asset sensitivity ratios in the context of the script?

Asset sensitivity ratios are important because they indicate how different assets respond to changes in global liquidity. For instance, Bitcoin has a higher sensitivity ratio, meaning it reacts more dramatically to liquidity changes compared to the S&P 500 or gold.

What advice does the speaker give for investing during these cycles?

The speaker advises understanding the cycle you are in and investing in the most sensitive assets that are likely to perform well during that phase of the cycle. They also emphasize the importance of not getting caught up in short-term fluctuations and instead focusing on the overall trend.

Outlines

00:00

🔐 Unlocking Market Cycles: The Monetary Codex

The speaker introduces the concept of market cycles and the 'Monetary Codex,' a tool for decrypting market movements. He shares his personal experience from 2008 and emphasizes the importance of understanding these cycles to avoid financial pitfalls. The video promises to explain the origins of these cycles, their increasing magnitude, and how to use them for financial gain. The speaker also mentions a significant change in the market dynamics post-2008 and invites viewers to a live presentation for an in-depth understanding.

05:00

🌐 The Global Debt Phenomenon and Market Synchronization

This paragraph delves into the global debt phenomenon and how it has led to a synchronized market cycle. The speaker explains the debt-based monetary system, the perpetual growth of debt, and its implications on asset prices. He discusses the correlation between debt, economic growth, and government policies, particularly the impact of the 2008 financial crash. The paragraph also highlights the concept of metronomes synchronizing their beats as an analogy for the synchronization of market cycles.

10:01

📊 Market Cycles and the Impact of the 2008 Financial Crisis

The speaker explores how the 2008 financial crisis led to a global synchronization of debt cycles, affecting various economic aspects such as business cycles, liquidity cycles, and asset prices. He discusses the refinancing of debt and its role in driving asset prices and the economy. The paragraph also touches on the sensitivity of different assets to changes in global liquidity, using Bitcoin as an example of an asset highly responsive to liquidity changes.

15:01

📈 Riding the Liquidity Cycle for Investment Opportunities

The focus shifts to understanding and capitalizing on the liquidity cycle for investment. The speaker explains the pattern of good and bad years within the cycle and the importance of staying in the trend. He also discusses the role of the Federal Reserve in market tightening and its effect on liquidity. The paragraph emphasizes the need to ride the cycle rather than trying to time the market, and the speaker shares his insights from previous videos about market entry points.

20:02

💼 Debt Growth Projections and Asset Sensitivity

This paragraph discusses the projections of US public debt and its implications for the economy and investment strategies. The speaker references data from the Congressional Budget Office to illustrate the expected increase in debt and its impact on asset prices. He also explains the concept of asset sensitivity to global liquidity, highlighting how different assets react to changes in monetary policy and debt levels.

25:03

🚀 Bitcoin's Sensitivity and the Four-Year Cycles

The speaker concludes with an analysis of Bitcoin's sensitivity to liquidity and its correlation with the four-year cycles of debt refinancing, business cycles, and presidential election cycles. He suggests that understanding these cycles can help predict market movements and make informed investment decisions. The paragraph also invites viewers to join a live presentation for a deeper dive into asset allocation strategies based on these cycles.

🗣️ Engaging with the Audience for Further Financial Insights

In the final paragraph, the speaker invites audience engagement by asking for comments and feedback to create more informative content. He encourages viewers to subscribe to stay updated on the financial insights and strategies he shares, emphasizing the importance of understanding market cycles for financial success.

Keywords

💡Encrypted Message

In the context of the video, 'encrypted message' is a metaphor for the complex and seemingly indecipherable patterns of the financial markets. The speaker suggests that understanding these patterns is akin to decrypting a coded message, which can be challenging but potentially rewarding. The term is used to draw an analogy between the difficulty of interpreting market signals and the process of decoding a secret communication.

💡Synchronization Event

The 'synchronization event' refers to a phenomenon described in the video where various cycles and patterns in the financial markets align, creating a coherent and predictable pattern. This event is likened to a metronomes coming into sync, and it is suggested to provide a unique opportunity to understand and predict market movements. The concept is central to the video's narrative, as it is the basis for the proposed method of market analysis.

💡Market Cycles

Market cycles are recurring patterns of economic activity that can be observed in financial markets. In the video, cycles are presented as a key to understanding market behavior over time. The speaker discusses how these cycles have become more predictable due to a synchronization event, allowing for more accurate market predictions. The concept is integral to the video's theme of decoding market movements.

💡Debt-Based Monetary System

A 'debt-based monetary system' is an economic framework where money is primarily created through the issuance of debt. The video explains that the current global financial system operates on this principle, which necessitates continuous growth in debt to maintain economic stability. This concept is fundamental to the video's analysis, as it underpins the cycles and patterns discussed.

💡Refinancing

In the video, 'refinancing' is the process of replacing existing debt with new debt, typically under more favorable terms. The speaker explains that in a debt-based system, refinancing is necessary to avoid default and maintain the value of assets as collateral. The concept is used to illustrate how debt cycles are perpetuated and how they affect market liquidity and asset prices.

💡Asset Prices

Asset prices in the context of the video refer to the value of financial instruments such as stocks, bonds, and commodities. The speaker discusses how the continuous growth of debt and the cycles of refinancing influence the rise and fall of asset prices. Understanding the dynamics of asset prices is crucial for predicting market trends and making informed investment decisions.

💡Liquidity Cycles

Liquidity cycles are the periods of increased or decreased availability of money in the financial system. The video describes how these cycles have become synchronized, leading to predictable patterns in market liquidity that affect asset prices. The concept is central to the video's argument that market movements can be anticipated by understanding these cycles.

💡Sensitivity Ratio

The 'sensitivity ratio' in the video refers to the degree to which different assets respond to changes in market liquidity. For example, Bitcoin is said to have a higher sensitivity ratio than gold or the S&P 500, meaning it reacts more dramatically to liquidity changes. The concept is used to explain why certain assets may be better investments during specific phases of the market cycle.

💡Global Equity

Global equity in the video represents the total value of stocks issued by companies around the world. It is used as a measure of the overall financial health and wealth of the world's stock markets. The speaker discusses how global equity is influenced by liquidity cycles and debt growth, and how it serves as a proxy for inflation and monetary debasement.

💡Inflation

Inflation, as discussed in the video, is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, the purchasing power of currency is falling. The speaker explains that the S&P 500 index is a reflection of inflation, as it keeps up with the rate of monetary debasement. Understanding inflation is important for investors as it affects the real value of returns on investments.

💡Quantitative Tightening

Quantitative tightening is the process by which a central bank reduces the supply of money in the economy, typically by selling off assets it previously acquired through quantitative easing. In the video, the speaker mentions that the announcement of quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve led to a decrease in market liquidity and a subsequent drop in asset prices, illustrating the impact of central bank policies on financial markets.

Highlights

The financial markets are likened to an encrypted message, with a synchronization event allowing for market predictions.

Introduction of the 'Codex', a monetary cipher to decipher market movements.

The significance of understanding cycles in the market to avoid being caught off guard, as happened in 2008.

The shift in 2008 to a debt-based monetary system and its perpetual growth requirement.

Debt cycles and their impact on asset prices, with the debt needing to continually expand.

The correlation between declining birth rates, labor force participation, and economic growth.

The relationship between government debt, GDP, and the labor force participation rate.

The synchronization of global debt cycles every four years, influenced by the 2008 financial crash.

The impact of liquidity cycles on financial markets, with patterns of three good years followed by one bad year.

The prediction of asset price movements based on sensitivity to liquidity changes, exemplified by Bitcoin.

Different asset sensitivities to global liquidity, with Bitcoin showing the highest reaction.

The projection of US public debt increases and their implications for future market liquidity cycles.

The concept of timing cycles rather than markets for investment strategies.

The importance of understanding the phases of debt cycles for asset allocation.

The live presentation invitation for further insights into the 'Codex' and its practical applications.

The summary of the debt-based system's effects on market cycles and asset sensitivities for future investment opportunities.

Transcripts

what if there was an encrypted message

that you just couldn't figure out and it

posed massive danger to you well that's

sort of what the financial markets are

but there was a phenomenon that happened

a synchronization event that broke this

open and allows us to Peak inside the

markets and predict with an uncanny

ability to know exactly what's going to

happen next and if you use this tool

correctly you could make more money than

you imagined over the next 12 to 15

months so in this video I'm going to

break down what these Cycles are how

they got started and how each wave gets

bigger and bigger we're going to talk

about this phenomenon this

synchronization event that put them all

in the same order and then we're going

to look at how they break down over what

time frames and exactly how we can use

this information to make money on the

way up or down depending on what part of

the synchronization cycle that we on

this is an amazing phenomenon it's the

first time I've talked about it here you

can't wait to see this so let's go ahead

and just jump right

in all right welcome to the channel if

you're new my name is Mark moss and I

make these videos to help break down

these complex subjects of the markets

and how they move in the movements so

you don't get caught in the same

situation I did back in 2008 when I was

focused on my business and I was focused

on my real estate developments and I

wasn't focusing on the markets I wasn't

focused on the macro economic

environment unfortunately for me it

caught me off sides and cost me

everything so I've spent the last last

12 to 14 years understanding these

cycles and how they move so I don't get

caught off sides again and I don't want

you to either now I've talked a lot

about how something changed in 2008 and

how most people when they talk about the

market you know 1970 the 2 1970 1940s

Etc that it's all wrong because

something changed in 2008 so I've been

talking about this for a while but it

wasn't until recently that we cracked

the code on this this is the first time

that we've talked about this publicly

I'm talking about what I'm calling the

Codex the monetary codex the Codex is

basically a cipher a way to decipher an

encrypted message and that's exactly

what this is a way to decipher to

unencrypt the movements of the market so

we can have a lot more success into it

all right so let's go and jump in I want

to break this down and we're going to

use this to do something that's

impossible and I'm talking about timing

and more importantly we're going to time

the cycle so we're not timing the

markets I'm not going to tell you the

exact time to buy something or exact

time to sell something as a matter of

fact nobody can anyone who tells you

they can they're lying they can't do

that we don't know the top or the bottom

until we're looking backwards however

what we can do is we can understand the

Cycles we can time the cycles and we can

know what phase we're in and what assets

we should be invested into and should we

be long short Etc so that's what we want

to break down that's all you have to get

right but first before we jump into

exactly how to do that let's talk about

how these got built up now before I talk

about how these Cycles got built and

then we'll talk about like I said how to

map these out understand the time frames

of these I do want to let you know that

there's a lot more to this uh how this

actually works the individual assets you

want to buy at the four phases of the

cycle and specifically which assets to

be in right now for the next 12 months

it's more that I can cover in this short

video but I'd love to have you join me

next week I'm having a live presentation

I have about 30 35 charts to show you

you can understand this and then I'm

going to take all your questions live so

you know how to implement this

information right away you don't want to

miss this if you want to make a lot of

money over the next 12 to 15 months you

need to understand this last part of the

cycle before we go into Quad 4 there's a

link down below it's free QR code on the

screen just come hang out with me it's

fun we hang out I'll answer all your

questions live okay now how did this

cycle get picked up the first thing you

have to understand is that we are in a

debt-based monetary system used to be a

gold-based system an equity based system

1971 officially started earlier 1913

probably but officially we are in a

debt-based monetary system so that means

that money is created through debt

issuance and the thing with that is that

the debt has to always continue to grow

and because the debt always has to

continue to grow because the debt is now

collateral for more debt so if the asset

prices go down that means the collateral

Goes Down And if you've ever done

options trading or leverage shorts

whatever you understand that when the

collateral goes down down you either

have to post more collateral or you lose

the position and so that's basically

what the whole world is in and so we

can't allow the collateral the assets to

go down because it's um collateral for

more and so the debt always has to

expand and we can see this is just since

2014 and this is the amount of debt

around the world the global debt well

over $300 trillion of debt which is just

amazing now we can see during the

pandemic we increased that but it's just

been a steady grind higher now I've

covered in a previous video I don't want

to go deep into but part of the reason

why this debt can ever be repaid back

besides the fact that we're in a

debt-based monetary system is that for

about $320 trillion of debt there's only

about 80 trillion dollars of dollars to

pay off the debt which is a big problem

but this is what leads to these Cycles

these debt Cycles if you will something

I talk quite about now we understand

also that the debt has to Contin grow

because it's a function of a debt based

monetary system but it's more than that

uh here we have a chart of the real GDP

the gross domestic product of the of the

United States and what we can see is

that while it goes up and down we can

see that it's trending down so the GDP

the economic growth of the United States

and the world for that matter well let's

just focus on the United States is

trending down right now and what we can

see is that at the same time we can see

that the US working age population ation

so working age able-bodied people age 15

to 64 we can see on a 5year

year-over-year split while it does go up

and down we can see that the trend is

also going down so as the working

population is going down less people to

work Less jobs less economic growth we

can see that mapped out in the GDP all

right so as that's happening then what

we can see at the same

time what's also feeding this is we're

seeing a Plunge in the US birth rates

and again nothing ever goes up or down

in a straight line so the birth rates

don't either what we can see is that the

trend is down This Is Us birth rates per

1,000 people now what we also see of

course if we have less people and we

have less working age people then the US

Labor Force participation rate is also

going down and we can see that the labor

force participation rate and the birth

rates are basically in sync right here

and they're all going down and again we

have less births we have less people we

have less people we have less people

working we have less people working we

have less economic productivity and then

less economic productivity then GDP is

also going down now this is the labor

force participation rate we already

looked at and in green the US government

debt as a percentage of GDP and this is

where it starts to get interesting you

can see that these are mapped out almost

perfectly now the government debt as a

percentage of GDP has been inverted

right because obviously the debt has

been going going up so what we did is we

inverted those so you could see how

correlated the labor force participation

rate and the government debt to GDP is

so the GDP is going down with the birth

rates and labor for labor force

participation rate and so the government

debt has to go up in order to fill in

the Gap okay now we can see the FED net

liquidity so again like the FED balance

sheet we can see it going up and the US

government debt as a percentage of GDP

is also going up of course as the

balance sheets grows the government debt

goes up and as a percentage of GDP it

goes up because the GDP is going down

does that make sense so we have to

understand debt first because debt is

what's causing this all to happen and

then we'll learn how to map that out now

I talk about this quite often through

these Cycles you might have seen any one

of my videos where I'm breaking down

these 250 year Cycles or the uh 80-year

Financial Cycles the 50-year tech Cycles

so you know I love my Cycles but what I

want to show this is basically a cycle

where we can map out the growth now this

is a total Global Equity not the United

States but total Global liquidity so

it's all the money at the Central Bank

Central Bank balance sheets that's

available credit uh lots of things like

that and what we can see is that the

global liquidity the amount of money

that's created and credit and debt Etc

that's expanding around the world has

these seasons and we sort of have three

years up and then we have one year down

and then we have three years up and one

year down and then three years up and

one year down now let's say you're an

elementary kid you're pretty good at

understanding patterns what do you think

happens from here do you think we might

have three years up and one year down

next are you starting to see that all

right we'll come back to that in a

minute but there's this very very

interesting phenomenon as a matter of

fact if you know what these things are

this is a metronome and a metronome

helps you keep perfect time when you're

playing a musical instrument piano

guitar violin whatever it is the

interesting phenomenon about this is

that a metronome is supposed to keep

perfect time but if I get a group of

metronomes and put them onto a table and

I start them all different times so

they're all different beats within a

short period of time depend on how many

there are and what surface they're on

within a short period of time they'll

all get into perfect synchronization

which is an amazing phenomenon because

again they're supposed to keep perfect

time so how do they all get from

different time different beats onto the

same but understanding that phenomenon

it's more than I need to break down

right now but this is the same

phenomenon that's happening in the

markets let me explain what I'm talking

about what we saw back to 2008 as I

explained is that something changed in

the world and again I haven't been able

to figure this out for a while until

this finally kind of made sense to me so

we're in this debt-based monetary system

the debt has to continue to grow so that

means the debt doesn't get paid it gets

refinanced it's the old you know kicking

the can down the road so to speak now

the thing is in order to refinance the

debt we have to issue more debt that's

why the debt continues to grow so all

these different debt Cycles different

governments different central banks

different corporations everyone has debt

but different terms one year two year 5

year 10 year 30 year Etc all taken out

different times so all this debt around

the world the $320 trillion that's been

growing growing growing growing growing

is all getting kicked down the road all

getting refinanced at different rates

but then something happened that's sort

of like all the metronomes on different

beats but then in 2008 what changed is

that when the great financial crash

happened the whole

world brought rates to zero one time now

if you own a house and you have a

mortgage that's locked in right now

let's say that you bought it in the last

year you have a mortgage rate of let's

say

7% if the bank decided to lower the

interest rates to zero would you

refinance your house from 7 to Zer and

of course the answer is yes you would

and that's exactly what happened so when

the whole world in 2008 brought rates

down to zero what do you think everybody

did businesses governments central banks

Etc well they all refinanced their debt

now not all of them but the majority of

them what we can see right here is this

the maturity distribution of interest

bearing public debt as a percentage and

what we can see here's about a year and

here's 1 to five years so what we can

see is about 75 5% of all public health

debt is within a 5year period a maturity

distribution meaning all this debt has

to be refinanced in about a 5year cycle

now it's not all exactly five years or

four years or three years there's an

average so the average is somewhere

around 4 years

75% of the debt has about a 4year

maturity distribution and that has to

get roll red over every four years so

just like these metronomes that had all

these different syns going on they all

got linked up together now the

interesting thing about that is it's not

just all this debt which is obviously

enough but we can see is that also

changed the business cycle of course

businesses corporations they all use

debt as well this is a chart of the ism

it's like the B shows the business cycle

and what we can see is this is working

on fouryear Cycles as well so now we

have the debt cycle the global debt

cycle rolling over every four years we

have the business cycle rolling over

every four years we can see this this is

the US liquidity cycle and is again

moving over and every four years now why

is that well the reason why the

liquidity cycle moves every four years

is because every four years the debt has

to be refinanced and we have to issue

more debt in order to roll over the

existing debt so so everything has

become synchronized and what we can see

looking at the global Equity index is

almost every one of our financial

crisises has come at the bottom of this

liquidity index now going back to this

chart we looked at this chart of the

global liquidity before and I showed you

sort of the the rainbow pattern the

three good years the one bad year and

now I've mapped it out for you with

actual time frame so you can see this so

we can see from May 2010 to June 2014

four years up and then look at this a

whole red down then we have March 2015

to March 2018 and then down October 2018

to March 22 up and then down now this

just so happens to coincide with when

the Federal Reserve and thereby all the

other central banks around the world

said they were going to start tightening

markets if you remember that inflation

was transitory it's not a problem we're

going to let the inflation run hot

finally around I think it was November

of 2021 the central Bank the federal

reserve put out a notice that we are

going to start quantitative tightening T

QT start tightening the markets when

that happened what do you think happened

to liquidity it started going down now

in October of 2022 that changed and if

you have been watching my channel for

any amount of time you know in October

of 2022 I made a video and I said there

is no market crash coming and here's why

and I've gone on to make a series of

videos throughout 20 January 23 hey it's

time to buy March 2023 time I'm I'm buy

I'm back in and I made all those videos

not because I had a crystal ball but

because I was watching this liquidity

cycle that went back up I just didn't

understand the timing of it yet which is

what we're going to talk about but you

can see how this is starting to work now

going back to this chart again I added

some arrows so you can see this a little

bit better but we have the four good

years and then the one down year the

four good years and the one down year

the four good years and down year now

for all of you guys that like to look at

your portfolio on a daily or weekly or

monthly basis as I say you're never

going to make it but a little bit of

Hope for you here um nothing ever moves

up or down in a straight line okay and

this is why when I opened up the video I

said it's not about timing the markets

it's about timing the Cycles right so we

don't know the top we don't know the

bottom to we're looking back on it what

we do understand is the cycle that we're

in and as we say in the investing world

the trend is your friend we just want to

be in the trend and so we know that as

liquidity started coming back on here if

we let it ride as we say uh in the

gambling world if we let it ride we

would do very very well right the

problem is if you were looking at your

portfolio on a micro basis like oh my

gosh I'm making money oh I'm losing oh

I'm making money oh I'm losing oh look

how much I made oh I lost oh I made

money oh I lost right and you're going

back and forth and you can't do that so

we want to understand the cycle that

we're in and we want to just ride this

thing all the way up and then we either

want to get out of the market here or we

can flip short and make money on the way

back down and then we can make it back

up again now this as I said was about

October of 22 when I started making

videos about time to go back in the

market and again if we were just to stay

long we'll probably end up somewhere

along here now it's going to be like

this and it's going to be like this it's

going to come down right it's going to

be like that um but this is the cycle

and how it's working okay now the next

question you might ask yourself then is

well if uh all this debt is getting

bigger and bigger and bigger and it's

rolling over and that's what's pushing

up asset prices then how much more will

this debt grow how much is it protected

to grow and the good thing is is that

well the government tells us that and so

we can go directly to the US

government's CBO Congressional budgets

office and they publish this dat as a

matter of fact the new 2024 report just

came out and what we can see is the US

public debt increases are projected as

you can see to absolutely Skyrocket and

blow up and of course they will because

they have to we already broke that down

a debt-based monetary system they have

to issue more debt to roll it over in

addition they have to make up for the

low birth rates that we're having and

low birth rates equal low Workforce

participation rate which means GDP goes

down which means more and more debt is

continued to be put into the system to

keep this cycle going by

2034 they expect it to be about 116%

debt to GDP which is wrong number

because we're already higher than that

so whatever they show you here just

imagine that we'll probably be up to

there by then and that means these

liquidity Cycles will to continue to get

bigger and bigger and bigger now the

next thing that you need to understand

is that in these Cycles there's

technically four different parts of this

cycle so for example as the cycle goes

up and down like this we have what you

might call a summer spring or sorry

spring summer winter fall cycle to that

and we'd want to have different types of

assets in each one of these cycles and

then sort of breaks this down for us

right here so the rebound as it's coming

back up the Calm before the top the part

the the Mania of speculation and then

the turbulence at the bottom and the

different types of assets that we'd want

to be in in each part of those Cycles

now if you want me to break this down in

much greater detail and actually tell

you this is just asset categories so

it's like equities credits Commodities

Etc if I'm going to break this down and

tell you what assets in each one then

you probably want to come hang out with

me live next week because this is a

whole another topic I got like about 20

30 charts I'm going to break all this

down for you and then I'm going to take

all your questions live so you can ask

me any questions that you have about

this and how to implement it highly

recommend you come hang out with me and

it's just good fun uh there's a link in

the description down below it's free if

you want to come hang out there's a QR

code on the screen uh scan that highly

recommend you come because the next 12

to 15 months is going to be nuts okay

now the next thing that we have to

understand is that as these debt Cycles

as these liquidity Cycles continue to

roll over and continue to get bigger

as we see here they move asset prices

differently so for example this is a

zoomed in picture again this is going

back to October of 22 and we've been on

this upward liquidity now as I said

nothing goes up in a straight line so we

certainly had our Peaks and valleys here

at the top and then it continued higher

so some people might have gotten faked

out but also like I said nothing even

goes down in a straight line either

right so we have to understand that what

we want to be is again directionally

right the trend is your friend now this

is a chart of Bitcoin the reason why I

like to use Bitcoin here is because

Bitcoin is the most sensitive asset to

this liquidity and what we can see this

is the same time frame uh October of 22

and we can see it's taking off at the

same time the global liquidities like

literally in the exact same Peak and

Valley when the FED announced they're

going to start quantitative tightening

Bitcoin started selling off almost

immediately the NASDAQ the tech stocks

started selling off about a week later

they're also very sensitive about a week

later the S&P 500 was a few months later

so that's sort of how this works now

like I said Bitcoin is the most

sensitive asset which is why I like to

use this here um when we talk about

sensitivity let me just give you a

couple specifics here so this is an

increase in global liquidity and we know

that different assets are have different

sensitivity ratios so for example the

S&P 500 is 90% correlated with this what

does that mean it mean it moves

basically in lock step so what does that

really mean what it really means is that

the S&P 500 is moving up at the rate of

the increase of global Equity what does

that mean well that means as the global

Equity as they print more money the

existing money is worth less the value

comes down so as the value comes down

asset prices go up right because it

takes more money to buy those assets now

so it goes like this and so what that

means is the S&P 500 is sort of like a

perfect proxy for inflation meaning it's

keeping up with the rate of inflation

debasement not the CPI the government

tells you but the official monetary

debasement so you're not really getting

ahead with the S&P 500 however Bitcoin

has a

8.95 times sensitivity ratio gold has a

1.49 sensitivity ratio so what does that

mean that means gold moves up about 1.5

times at the rate of global Equity so

for every 10% increase in global

liquidity the S&P 500 stays even for

every 10% increase in liquidity gold

goes up about 15% pretty good for every

10% rise in global Equity Bitcoin over

here goes up about 90% so not all assets

are the same we definitely want to be in

the fastest boat or the most sensitive

asset now going back to these repeating

cycles and this is where it just starts

to get pretty interesting again if we

look over a long period of time we can

see that the ism is following this is

the business cycle is following these

fouryear Cycles now it's interesting

this is Bitcoin fouryear Cycles as well

this four-year cycle as the whole world

the phenomenon the synchronization

phenomenon that happened right at 2008

the whole world refinanced on a

four-year cycle just happens to coincide

and overlap with the four-year

presidential election cycle and just so

happens to overlap with the four-year

Bitcoin having cycle and so every four

years this the new supply of Bitcoin

gets cut in half which causes Bitcoin to

also move on these fouryear Cycles one

down year three good years one down year

three good years and we can see this

right here so here's 2011 Bitcoin popped

came down and then went back to the Moon

we saw 2014 Bitcoin popped went down and

went back up to the Moon uh 2019 it

popped went down went back to the moon

and now here we are right here and we

can see it popped it came down and now

it's rebounded and it's about back to

its all-time high now again if you're an

elementary kid you know anything about

patterns what do you think if this

happened this happened this happened and

now we're here what do you think happens

next well my guess is that it probably

goes up like that to match the rest of

the pattern at least for the next 12 to

15 months until well then the entire

cycle

changes all right so to summarize I know

we covered a lot of ground here we're in

a debt-based monetary system the debt

has to always continue to grow it can't

be paid off there's not enough US

dollars plus because that debt is

collateral it has to continue to grow

can't go down so the debt must grow we

know that

refinancing We Kick the Can down the

road we have to issue more debt to pay

off the previous debt so it gets bigger

and bigger and bigger we know that in

2008 it created a phenomenon that put

the global debt uh debt refinance cycle

in synchronization create this Global

sync we know that these Global

synchronized Cycles move in like a 3:1

ratio I showed you those time frames we

know that there's different types of

assets to buy in these different Cycles

we'll get to more of that later if you

come join me live next week uh we know

that the government the CBO

Congressional budget office projects the

debt and assets to continue to grow at

an astronomical rate and again we know

that there's different asset

sensitivities so the S&P 500 is moving

up perfectly with it gold moves up at a

faster rate Bitcoin moves up even faster

rate and there's other assets that move

up at different synchronization rates

and different sensitivity rates so

anyway that's a lot of ground it's a

very interesting phenomenon something

that I've been digging into a lot about

the last couple months and I'm going to

continue to dig in more so let me know

what your comments are down below so I

can make some more videos to support you

as you learn how to use this tool to map

these liquidity flows well to make as

much money as you can all right give me

a thumbs up if you like the video if you

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