Prof. Mearsheimer WARNS of the CATASTROPHIC Outcomes of the Ukraine and Middle East Conflicts

Summary

The transcript discusses the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, highlighting the worsening situations with significant potential for escalation. It criticizes the U.S.'s deep involvement and the delusional optimism of Secretary of State Tony Blinken. The speaker argues that despite military support and sanctions, the West's commitment to Ukraine may lead to further conflict with Russia. The summary also touches on the complex geopolitical dynamics involving Israel, Iran, and the potential for broader regional wars, emphasizing the influence of the Israel Lobby on U.S. foreign policy and the risks of escalating conflicts.

Takeaways

• 🌍 The speaker discusses the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine, noting the potential for escalation and the lack of clear resolution on the horizon.
• 📅 The Ukraine conflict began in February 2022 and the Gaza conflict started in October 2021, with both situations worsening over time.
• 🔍 The speaker criticizes the U.S. Secretary of State Tony Blinken for being 'delusional' rather than lying about the state of these conflicts, suggesting a disconnect from the reality on the ground.
• ❌ The speaker refutes the idea that Putin intended to conquer all of Ukraine and points out that the current situation favors Russia in terms of military success and casualties.
• 💡 The West, particularly the U.S., is doubling down on its support for Ukraine with financial aid, sanctions against Russia, and a 10-year security agreement, which the speaker sees as provocative.
• 🚀 The U.S. has authorized the use of ATACMS (Advanced Tactical Missile Systems) by Ukraine for strikes across the Russia-Ukraine border, marking a significant escalation.
• 🤔 The speaker ponders the potential Russian response to the increased Western support for Ukraine, suggesting that while there is pressure for a stronger counterattack, a measured response is more likely.
• 🔥 The speaker warns of the dangers of escalating the conflict, especially considering the presence of nuclear weapons, and the potential for a major war with unforeseeable consequences.
• 🏳️ The Gaza conflict is characterized as a 'low-level war' with no clear path to resolution, and the speaker suggests that the Israeli military is exhausted and unlikely to achieve a decisive victory.
• 🤝 The U.S.'s relationship with Israel is described as one-sided, with the U.S. unwilling to oppose Israel's actions due to the power of the Israel Lobby, which the speaker finds problematic.
• 🔄 The speaker highlights the interconnected nature of global conflicts, suggesting that escalation in one area could have ripple effects in others, potentially leading to a larger, more dangerous conflict.

Q & A

What are the two conflicts mentioned in the script that have been causing significant concern?

The two conflicts mentioned are the Gaza War and the Ukraine War, which have been ongoing and escalating since their respective start dates.

What is the situation in Ukraine as of the time the script was written?

As of the script's writing, Ukraine has been in conflict since February 2022, with the situation having worsened and the potential for further escalation being significant.

How does the speaker describe the potential for escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Ukraine-Russia conflict?

The speaker suggests that the potential for escalation in both conflicts is quite significant and there is no evidence to suggest that either conflict will settle down anytime soon.

What does the speaker claim about the current state of the battlefield in Ukraine?

The speaker claims that the Russians are clobbering the Ukrainians on the battlefield, with a higher casualty exchange ratio in favor of the Russians, and that the situation is likely to deteriorate further.

What recent actions by the United States are mentioned in the script in relation to the Ukraine conflict?

The recent actions mentioned include supplying Ukraine with $50 billion, increasing sanctions on Russia, and signing a 10-year security agreement with Ukraine.

What is the speaker's view on the potential for the conflict in Ukraine to escalate further?

The speaker believes that the potential for escalation is great and that the West, particularly the United States, is doubling down on its commitment to Ukraine, which could lead to a serious escalation.

What is the speaker's opinion on Antony Blinken's stance on the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts?

The speaker suggests that Antony Blinken is not lying but is delusional, particularly in his assessment of the situation on the battlefield in Ukraine.

What does the speaker suggest about the Russian strategy in the Ukraine conflict?

The speaker suggests that the Russians are pursuing a strategy aimed at defeating the Ukrainians on the battlefield while avoiding escalation that could lead to a war with NATO or the United States.

What is the speaker's view on the potential for a conflict between Israel and Hezbollah?

The speaker expresses concern that Israel's actions could lead to a war with Hezbollah, which could potentially involve Iran and escalate into a larger conflict that the United States would be drawn into.

What does the speaker believe is the influence of the Israel Lobby on American foreign policy?

The speaker believes that the Israel Lobby has a significant influence on American foreign policy, to the point where American politicians are unlikely to cross the lobby or act against Israel's interests.

What challenges does the speaker see in the Middle East, particularly regarding the Gaza conflict?

The speaker sees challenges in shutting down the Gaza conflict and avoiding escalation to include a war against Hezbollah or Iran, with limited maneuver room due to the influence of the Israel Lobby in the United States.

Outlines

00:00

🌍 Escalating Global Conflicts: Ukraine and Gaza

The speaker discusses the ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza, highlighting the worsening situations since their respective starts in February 2022 and October 7th. They argue that there is no sign of resolution and the potential for escalation is significant. The speaker criticizes Secretary of State Tony Blinken's optimistic view on Ukraine's performance in the war, asserting that Russia has the upper hand in terms of military progress and casualties. The discussion also touches on the West's commitment to Ukraine, including financial aid and a 10-year security agreement, which the speaker sees as provocative to Russia.

05:02

🚀 The Risks of Military Escalation in Ukraine

This paragraph delves into the complexities of the Ukraine conflict, focusing on the potential for the use of ATACMS missiles for deep strikes into Russian territory, which could significantly escalate the conflict. The speaker discusses the implications of such actions and the broader geopolitical consequences.

Keywords

💡Gaza War

The Gaza War refers to the recurring military conflicts between Israel and Hamas, the governing authority in the Gaza Strip. In the video, it is mentioned as one of the significant conflicts that have worsened over time, illustrating the ongoing tension and potential for escalation in the region.

💡Ukraine War

The Ukraine War denotes the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia, which escalated significantly in February 2022. The script discusses the worsening situation and the lack of signs for a resolution, emphasizing the gravity and potential for further escalation.

💡Casualty Exchange Ratio

The casualty exchange ratio is a military term that compares the number of casualties one side suffers to the number it inflicts on the enemy. In the context of the video, it is used to argue that despite territorial advances, the Russians are facing fewer casualties, suggesting a strategic advantage.

💡Energy Grid

The energy grid refers to the infrastructure used to deliver electricity from power stations to end users. The script mentions the destruction of the Ukrainian energy grid by Russian forces, highlighting the impact on civilian life and the strategic nature of such attacks.

💡G7 Meeting

The G7 Meeting is an annual summit of the world's seven largest advanced economies. In the video, it is mentioned as a venue where the West, particularly the United States, reinforced its commitment to Ukraine through financial aid and sanctions against Russia.

💡Security Agreement

A security agreement, as discussed in the script, is a formal arrangement that commits parties to mutual defense and cooperation. The United States and Ukraine signed a 10-year security agreement, which is seen as a significant move towards Ukraine's potential NATO membership.

💡ATACMS

ATACMS stands for Army Tactical Missile System, a long-range missile system used by the military. The script discusses the potential use of ATACMS by Ukraine against Russian forces, indicating a significant escalation in the conflict's intensity.

💡Escalation Ladder

The escalation ladder is a concept in military strategy that refers to the progressive increase in the intensity of a conflict. The video warns against climbing this ladder with Russia, as it could lead to a dangerous and unpredictable situation, possibly involving nuclear weapons.

💡Israel Lobby

The Israel Lobby refers to the informal group of individuals and organizations that advocate for Israel's interests in the United States. The script suggests that the lobby's influence restricts American foreign policy options, particularly in relation to the Middle East conflicts.

💡Hezbollah

Hezbollah is a Lebanese political party and militant group, considered a significant player in the region. The script expresses concern over the potential for conflict involving Hezbollah, which could escalate and involve other regional and global powers.

💡Nuclear Escalation

Nuclear escalation refers to the potential for a conflict to involve the use of nuclear weapons, leading to catastrophic consequences. The video discusses the risks associated with escalating conflicts with nuclear-armed states, such as Russia, and the unpredictability of such scenarios.

Highlights

The ongoing conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine have significantly worsened since their respective starts, with no signs of de-escalation.

Secretary of State Tony Blinken's views on the Ukraine and Gaza conflicts are described as delusional rather than dishonest.

Contrary to assertions, Putin's aim is not to conquer all of Ukraine, and current battlefield conditions favor Russia.

Russia's military strategy is causing significant damage to Ukraine's energy grid, leading to power outages.

The West, particularly the United States, is doubling down on support for Ukraine with financial and military aid.

The recent G7 meeting in Italy reinforced commitments to Ukraine, including a 10-year security agreement.

The potential for escalation is high if the U.S. gives Ukraine the green light to use atacam missiles for deep strikes into Russian territory.

Russian retaliation for attacks has been limited so far, but there is pressure from within Russia for a stronger counterattack.

The U.S. is involved in low-level warfare with the Houthis in the Red Sea and has been involved in conflicts in the Middle East.

There is significant pressure on the U.S. to deal with the Iranian nuclear issue, potentially through military force.

The Gaza conflict has not been resolved, and the Israeli military is exhausted and facing challenges in mobilizing reservists.

The U.S. has limited options in influencing Israel due to the power of the Israel Lobby, complicating efforts to resolve conflicts.

The potential for a war between Israel and Hezbollah is worrisome and could draw in the U.S. and other regional powers.

The U.S. finds itself in a difficult position, unable to effectively pressure Israel and unable to avoid being drawn into regional conflicts.

The interconnected nature of regional conflicts poses a significant risk of escalation involving major powers.

The U.S. is perceived as lacking backbone in its dealings with Israel, leading to a sense of entitlement from Israeli leadership.

The potential for a major conventional war between nuclear-armed powers is unprecedented and poses great risks.

Transcripts

I think that if you look at the Gaza war

and you look at the Ukraine War uh and

by the way we're putting aside the

potential for conflict in the East China

Sea uh which is quite significant these

days but if you look at Ukraine and you

look at Gaza it's quite clear for that

that that we have been in a lot of

trouble uh in in Ukraine since February

2022 when the war started and in uh Gaza

since that conflict started last October

7th but when you think about sort of

where we are today compared to where we

were when both of those conflicts

started it seems quite clear that the

situation has worsened and the potential

for escalation in both cases is quite

significant moreover there's no evidence

that either one of these conflicts uh

the Israeli Palestinian

conflict uh or the

uh Ukraine Russia conflict both of which

we're deeply involved in are going to

settle down anytime soon and indeed it

looks like they're going to get uh worse

over time and that's why I think in good

part uh the potential for escalation is

so great in both cases it's not a lie if

what he is saying is delusional he

really believes this then it's not a lie

it's just delusional and I think that

Tony blinkin on a number of key

dimensions of both the Ukraine conflict

and the Gaza conflict is not lying he's

just delusional and in a very important

way that's probably worse than lying but

the fact is that Putin was never

interested in conquering all of Ukraine

there's no evidence to support that

assertion but more importantly given

where we are today his comment that

Ukraine is doing quite well on the

battlefield and it in effect is di the

Russians is simply wrong if you look at

what's happening on the battlefield and

even even deeper into Ukraine in terms

of the military conflict the Russians

are clobbering the ukrainians they're

killing huge numbers of Ukrainian

soldiers up on the front lines they're

making slow progress on the ground for

sure in terms of capturing territory but

as you and I both know that's not what

really matters here what matters is the

casualty exchange ratio and the casualty

exchange ratio decisively favors the

Russians at this point in time who have

more manpower to begin with furthermore

when you look at what the Russians are

doing with their airow the amount of

Destruction uh that they're creating uh

with regard to for example the Ukrainian

energy Grid it's quite stunning uh

they've brought down enough of that grid

that half of Ukraine's electricity is no

more and in many places in Ukraine they

are not getting any electricity for 10

hours a day and if anything this

situation is going to deteriorate in the

months ahead as the Russians continue to

Target the grid the truth is we meaning

the west and especially the United

States are committed to doubling down

and you saw this the recent G7 meeting

uh that took place in Italy in mid June

uh what we did and again I'm talking

about the west but mainly the United

States was we reinforced we reinforced

our commitment to

Ukraine uh we supplied them with $50

billion doar uh we increased the

sanctions on Russia and very importantly

the United States consummated a 10 year

security agreement with Ukraine and both

ziny president zilinski of Ukraine and

Secretary of State blinkin said that

this was quote unquote a bridge to

Bringing Ukraine into NATO from a

Russian point of view this is you know

completely unacceptable it's like waving

a red flag in front of a bull as we used

to say when I was a kid uh it's just

asking for trouble so all of this is to

say Danny that we are doubling down on

our commitment to Ukraine we are more

invested than ever we have long said

that using atacam uh against Crimea and

that's where this attack this past

Sunday took place is acceptable and the

Administration has now said this is the

Biden Administration has now said that

they can use

attacs uh to attack Ukrainian forces

right across the Russia Ukraine border

so that's a very important threshold

that we've crossed there there we're

saying that the ukrainians can use the

atacam as long as it's just across the

Russo Ukrainian border the really key

issue here is whether at some point we

give the ukrainians the green light to

use the attack atacam for deep strikes

into Russian

territory uh and if we do that that will

be a true serious escalation uh the

Russians have not retaliated given the

limited strikes into the Russian

territory that lies just on the other

side of the Ukrainian border and uh the

attacks in Crimea the only reason they

have caused such a calal uh is because

civilians were killed and uh uh so you

have to be very careful to discriminate

between the different kinds of attacks

with these atacam missiles which which

are clearly American supplied weapons I

just preface my comments by saying that

it's important to understand that there

is a lot of criticism inside of Russia

uh of Vladimir Putin for not being tough

enough in terms of waging this war so

there is pressure on him to uh to

Counterattack to go back at the United

States for what happened from all sorts

of people respected people in the

Russian blogosphere and also a number of

established figures in the Russian

foreign policy Elite uh Putin has really

not as I like to say turned the dogs

loose yet and there are a number of

people who would like to do that uh and

at some point he may be forced to do

that it's hard to say exactly what he

will do in terms of retaliation the way

I think of this Danny is you never want

to lose sight of what your principal

goal is when you wage your war and your

principal goal here is to defeat the

ukrainians uh on the battlefield and to

get some sort of Peace settlement that

you find

satisfactory and at the same time if

you're the Russians you want to avoid

escalation you do not want to end up in

a war with NATO uh and you especially

don't want to end up in a war with the

United States so you have to be very

careful that you pursue the right policy

uh so that you can achieve both of those

goals and I think that given the way

Putin has waged the war they are doing

very well on the battlefield and they

have done an excellent job from a

Russian perspective of not causing

escalation despite the fact that it's

clear that the ukrainians would like to

drag NATO and especially the Americans

into the fight uh there's no question

about that and we have to be aware of

that all the time zinski wants us to

come into the fight and again the

Russians don't want us to come into the

fight and the Russians are doing very

well on the battlefield so I think if

they do retaliate it will be a measured

retaliation they may shoot down some

drones of ours out over the Black

Sea uh or something like that they may

go after some Western targets inside of

Ukraine in ways they haven't in the past

but I think it will be limited response

uh in large part because it would not

make sense to do anything that would

possibly bring uh NATO into the fight I

think he's simply wrong uh he he's a war

hawk par excellance and he understands

full well that the ukrainians are losing

and he's desperate to find some sort of

magic way uh to fix this problem and to

help the ukrainians win and he thinks

that using tack coms for longdistance

strikes into the Russian Homeland is

going to fix the problem on the

battlefield uh there's no reason to

think that that's going to happen I

think it's going to have hardly any

effect if any effect on what happens on

the battlefield and we could get into

why that's the case but this is just

evidence of the pressure that's going to

be brought to bear on the Biden

Administration to up the antie uh as the

ukrainians continue to lose on the

battle field and if we up the ante if we

do what Keane wants to do the question

you have to ask yourself is what are the

Russians going to do and at some point

the Russians are going to retaliate in a

really big way as I said I don't think

they're going to retaliate in a really

big way because of what happened this

past Sunday uh with the attack on the uh

people on the beach in Sesto I I think

the Russian response will be uh limited

but I think once you be begin to pound

away at the Russian Homeland deep into

the Russian Homeland uh the Russians are

going to feel compelled to respond in a

big way and then the question what are

we gonna do and then the question after

that is what are the Russians going to

do I think that the key people in the

administration are sophisticated enough

to understand that going back to the

1991 Borders or even the 20202 borders

is not going to happen and I think the

best they hope for at this point is what

Sullivan described which is to basically

sty the Russian offensive Force the

Russians to come to the negotiating

table and get the best possible deal for

Ukraine and that's the justification all

sorts of people not just Soloman but

people outside the Administration use

for continuing to support Ukraine for

doing what we did at the G7 meeting but

they're dead wrong because what's going

happen here is if the war continues

which is what will happen given

Sullivan's

policies uh if the war continues Ukraine

is going to lose more territory more

people are going to be killed and

furthermore the Russians are going to

have an even greater incentive to wreck

what's left of Ukraine to have a truly

dysfunctional rum State let's say that

the Russians were to Target uh you know

a weapon Depot in the eastern part of

Poland or in the eastern part of

Romania actually up the ante in a really

serious way the question you have to ask

yourself is what are we gonna do and I

don't think there's much we can do what

are we gonna do launch uh American

missiles at the Russian

Homeland uh we're not talking about

himars here or atacam we're talking

about you know uh missiles you know

based in Western Europe or based on

submarines or uh flown by American

aircraft are we going to do that I don't

think so uh so I think if you go up the

escalation ladder as a lot of people

want to do I mean this is getting back

to General kean's comments he like many

super Hawks in the United States

relished the idea of going up the

escalation ladder because they think

that we will dominate the Russians uh I

don't think you can tell a plausible

story about how we win going up the

escalation ladder and when you take into

account that that escalation ladder has

nuclear weapons on certain rungs you're

playing with fire and who's ever in the

White House is at some point going to

back off very quickly for fear that that

person is going to get us all

incinerated I I'm not arguing for one

second that there's no danger here uh

once you go up the escalation ladder uh

as I've said on many occasions we

fortunately have uh no experience with a

major conventional war between two great

Powers armed to the teeth with nuclear

weapons so we're not exactly sure what

the escalation Dynamics look like and if

one nuclear weapon was used you know how

that then leads to further nuclear

escalation and where it all ends up is

very hard to say in large part because

again we have thankfully never had a

nuclear war between two nuclear armed

great Powers so where we're out there in

Virgin Territory and nobody knows for

sure how this will play itself out but

that gives both sides very powerful

incentives uh to stay off the escalation

ladder and if they get on the escalation

ladder not to go up very quickly we are

basically involved in a war very

lowlevel war with the

houthis in the Red Sea uh and we're not

doing very well there and you also want

to remember that we fought against the

Iranians on April 14th when Iran

attacked Israel on April 14th in

retaliation for the Israeli attack on

the Iranian Embassy in Damascus on April

1st on that April

14th day we were involved in the fight

against Iran so it's very important to

understand we've been involved on two

occasions in fighting in the Middle East

and what we worry about is getting

sucked into a war with

Hezbollah and we also worry about

getting involved in a major war with the

Iranians uh the uh Minister of Defense

in Israel yav Galant uh has been in

Washington over the past few days and

he's been putting pressure on the

Americans to deal with the Iranian

nuclear issue and by and large that

means using American military force

maybe in conjunction with the Israeli

military force force uh to uh quote

unquote solve that problem uh so the the

pressure here for us uh to do something

militarily with Iran is going to grow

with the passage of time and there's a

danger will get sucked into this war

with Hezbollah and we're already in a

fight with the houthis so you then ask

the question which of course is the

appropriate one is what we can do uh to

avoid a war with Iran to avoid a war

with Hezbollah to shut down the war with

the houthis and to shut down the war

with Hamas we canot put any meaningful

pressure on the Israelis in large part

because of the power of the Israel Lobby

in the United States all of this is a

way of saying we're screwed you want to

understand this is very important that

when the fighting first broke out after

October 7th between uh the IDF and uh

Hamas that uh prime minister Netanyahu

said

unequivocally that they were going to

decisively defeat Hamas this was the end

of Hamas that has not happened Hamas is

uh still in the fight there's no

evidence it's going to disappear from

the fight and it's still a potent

military force and there's no way the

Israelis are going to defeat

Hamas what this tells you is that the

problem problem in Gaza that led to what

happened on October 7th has not gone

away and the israelies are going to

continue to use military force they're

going to continue to mow the grass as a

way of dealing with this problem this

means that not only the Israelis but we

the United States have no way of getting

out of this they have not won the war

against

tamas uh the Israeli military is exhaust

Ed they're having significant problems

with regard to calling up reservist for

a second and third term time uh there

are all sorts of articles in places like

the Jerusalem Post that talk about uh

problems the commanders are having

getting reservists to appear for their

second and third tour in Gaza this is an

army that has been

stretched uh thin in uh uh in Gaza and

is in a lot of ways at the end of its

rope and again they haven't won in Gaza

so now you're telling me that they're

going to take this Army and they're

going to invade Southern

Lebanon and they're going to defeat

Hezbollah and put an end to the problems

up in the North of Israel this is

extremely unlikely the Israelis went

into Lebanon in 1982 and they went into

Lebanon in 2006 and both were colossal

failures uh there's no plan that I see

that tells me that the IDF has the

capability to defeat and erase asbah as

a problem Hezbollah is a much more

formidable fighting force than Hamas and

again they have not defeated Hamas and

they have exhausted the IDF in the

process they're now going to go into

Southern Lebanon and went there I don't

think that that's a plausible argument

doing all they can to

discourage uh uh the IDF from going into

Lebanon we do not want Israel to attack

uh hisbah one of our great fears is that

Iran will come in and we'll be in a

major war with Iran but even putting

that aside we do not want another War uh

the Gaza war is enough we do not want a

war involving Israel and Hezbollah that

we might get dragged into but what we

have said uh and I think this was

foolish uh but it was done for domestic

politics reasons we have said to um

people in the region that if Israel does

get involved in a war with Hezbollah we

will back them and of course we will

back them because we back Israel no

matter what it does that's the way this

relationship Works Israel is the tail

that Wags The Dog there's no question

about that so when we said that right we

were telling the truth but the problem

is we're in effect alerting the Israelis

that even if they start a war and it

doesn't look like a smart thing to do

we'll support them full scale no matter

what which of course we will and Biden

has to do that and whoever was sitting

in the White House would have to do that

because the Israel Lobby would leave

that president in this case President

Biden no choice but the end result is

the Israelis are free uh to do reckless

things like

invade um uh Lebanon and given

netanyahu's track record at doing

foolish things this is very worrisome

the sense of

entitlement on netanyahu's part is

really quite stunning uh just listening

to him talk uh it's it's really quite

amazing that he just feels that Israel

is entitled to this Weaponry period and

the United States has no choice but to

give him that Weaponry no sense that you

know he's dealing with a superpower here

uh that he's beholden to the United

States in any way just a really profound

sense of entitlement uh and as an

American it bothers me enormously but

with regard to your comment I think the

fact is that Netanyahu understands full

well that he can do pretty much anything

he wants and he will get all the aid he

wants from the United States uh he

understands full well uh that the lobby

is incredibly powerful in the United

States no American

politician uh is going to cross Israel

in a meaningful way no American

politician is going to stand up for the

American national interest if that

President thinks the American national

interest is at odds with Israel's

National interest the American president

will do what Netanyahu wants Netanyahu

fully understands that and that's why he

treats us with contempt because he

understands that when it comes to Israel

American politicians or American leaders

have zero backbone and everything we've

seen since October 7th including Tony

blinken's performance a minute ago uh on

your show uh makes it clear that

Netanyahu is right he should treat the

Americans with contempt because they are

deserving of that contempt if the

Israelis go into

Lebanon that war is likely to spill over

into Syria as it has in the the past

because Syria and uh Lebanon are

neighbors uh and you want to remember

the Russians are in Syria in a big way

and it could be the case that the

Russians get involved with the Israelis

in Syria I'm not saying that's likely

but it is a possible outcome of a war

between Israel and Hezbollah

furthermore if Iran gets involved in a

war involving Hezbollah and Israel that

would be a huge problem for the United

States because we undoubtedly get sucked

in at that point uh and then the

question is what would the Russians do

and in fact in

1973 uh I remember when American nuclear

forces were put on alert uh during the

uh y kapor war and people were fearing

us Soviet conflict so what you're seeing

here is that the two scenarios that we

worry about the Ukraine scenario and the

Gaza scenario look like they're more and

more uh interconnected the Russians can

look the other way if the Iranians

decide to go down the nuclear Road in

the past we have depended heavily on

both the Russians and the Chinese and of

course the major European powers to help

us Corral the Iranians when it comes to

developing nuclear weapons I think in

the case of um the Middle East the case

of the Gaza War we're desperate to shut

down the Gaza war and we're desperate

not to let it escalate to include a war

against Hezbollah or War involving Iran

but we have zero maneuver room in large

part because of the Israel Lobby here in

the United States whatever president uh

crosses the lobby will pay an enormous

price uh as many politicians are finding

out these days uh in the United States

no president's going to cross Lobby uh

and if you look at uh president Trump uh

uh he he cow toow to the lobby every bit

as much as President Biden does and as

their predecessors did and that will be

true you know uh moving forward just to

go over to the Ukraine war it's actually

a different situation there there we're

actually upping the anti on our own

we're behaving in remarkably foolish

ways uh in Ukraine I think again to go

back to the Middle East East there we

have our hands tied behind our back I

think we have a good sense of what needs

to be done in the Middle East we just

can't do it I think all the evidence is

that Trump uh has the right instincts on

Ukraine that he understands it's time to

cut a deal and that would be best for

Ukraine and best for the United States

but his Forte is not the execution of

foreign policy as we know well and it's

not clear that he will bring in people

uh who can uh execute that basic

strategy that he has in mind furthermore

even if he brings in really smart people

uh and they go to work in smart ways the

fact is there will be tremendous

resistance