Perspective : Changing Population Dynamics | 19 January, 2023

Sansad TV
19 Jan 202326:03

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses global population dynamics, highlighting China's first recorded population decline and India's impending overtake as the most populous nation. Experts emphasize India's demographic dividend opportunity until 2055, stressing the need for investment in education, skills, and family planning. They also address challenges such as economic disparity, environmental degradation, and the importance of sustainable development, urging India to leverage its young population as a global resource while managing population growth and climate change responsibilities.

Takeaways

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ China has experienced its first population decline in decades, with a decrease of approximately 850,000 people by the end of 2022.
  • ๐ŸŒ The United Nations projects that the global population will continue to grow, reaching an estimated 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ณ India and China are the two most populous regions in Asia, each with over 1.4 billion people, and are key to understanding global population dynamics.
  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ India entered its demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-2006, which is expected to last until 2055-2056, indicating a potential economic advantage due to a young, working-age population.
  • ๐ŸŽฏ The Indian government has successfully controlled population growth, and the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of two.
  • ๐Ÿ‘ฅ India's large young population presents an opportunity for demographic dividend, emphasizing the need for investment in education, skills, and family planning.
  • ๐ŸŒ The world may rely on India as a supplier of skilled professionals and labor, indicating a potential shift in global demographic and economic dynamics.
  • ๐Ÿ’ผ Despite global economic challenges, India has performed well economically, but must address increasing disparities and unemployment to sustain growth.
  • ๐Ÿฅ Key challenges for India include managing an aging population, non-communicable diseases, and the need for innovative healthcare strategies, including public-private partnerships.
  • ๐ŸŒฑ Environmental degradation and climate change are significant concerns, with India striving to balance population growth with sustainable development and low carbon emissions.
  • ๐ŸŒŸ As India is set to become the most populous country, it faces global scrutiny and must assert its commitment to climate change mitigation, despite its lower per capita contribution compared to developed countries.

Q & A

  • What significant change has China's population experienced recently?

    -China has recorded its first population decline in several decades, with the population of mainland China at the end of 2022 being 1.411 billion people, which is a decrease of approximately 850,000 over the previous year.

  • What is the United Nations' projection for the global population growth by 2100?

    -The United Nations projection suggests that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.

  • What is the demographic dividend opportunity window, and how does it relate to India?

    -The demographic dividend opportunity window refers to the period when a country has a large proportion of its population in the working age group, which can lead to economic growth. India entered this window in 2005-2006, and it is expected to remain open until 2055-2056.

  • What is the current status of India's population growth control efforts according to the central government?

    -The central government in India has stated that efforts have been successful in reigning in the growth of the population, indicating a decline in the population growth rate.

  • How does the stabilization of the global population impact India and the world?

    -The stabilization of the global population, including in India, indicates a shift in population dynamics that requires a focus on investing in young people, education, skills, and family planning, as well as recognizing the potential for India to become a supplier of skilled professionals and labor to the rest of the world.

  • What are the key challenges that India faces with its current population dynamics?

    -Key challenges include managing the demographic dividend, addressing increasing population aging and the burden of non-communicable diseases, ensuring universal healthcare coverage, reducing economic disparity, and dealing with unemployment and gender disparities in employment.

  • What is the role of education in India's population control measures?

    -Education plays a significant role in India's population control measures by raising awareness about family planning, improving women's empowerment, and contributing to lower fertility rates, especially in urban areas.

  • How does India's economic growth relate to its population size and distribution?

    -India's economic growth is affected by its population size and distribution. While the GDP is increasing, the growth does not necessarily reflect in overall development due to the continuous population growth. Additionally, income inequalities and disparities in wealth distribution pose challenges.

  • What are the environmental implications of India's population growth?

    -Environmental implications include unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, and challenges related to climate change. There is a need to address these issues to ensure sustainable growth and to prevent overexploitation of resources.

  • How can India make the most of its demographic dividend while addressing the challenges?

    -India can make the most of its demographic dividend by investing in the education and skill development of its young population, promoting family planning, ensuring inclusive growth, and focusing on sustainable development practices.

  • What is the potential impact of China's recent population decline on global dynamics?

    -China's population decline could have significant global impacts, including potential shifts in economic power, labor markets, and global demographic trends. It may also influence other countries' policies on population control and economic planning.

Outlines

00:00

๐ŸŒ Global Population Dynamics and India's Demographic Dividend

The video script discusses the shifting global population dynamics, with a focus on China's first recorded population decline in decades and the implications for sustainable development. China's population was reported to be 1.411 billion at the end of 2022, marking a decrease from the previous year. The United Nations projects a continued global population growth, reaching 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100. India and China, being the two most populous regions in Asia, are highlighted, with India entering a demographic dividend opportunity window that will last until 2055-2056. The Indian government's efforts in population control are acknowledged, and the discussion emphasizes the need to understand the changing population dynamics and their impact on India, China, and the world. The panel of experts includes the executive director of the Population Foundation of India, a professor from iips, and a professor from the Indian Institute of Finance, who provide insights into population growth rates, stabilization, and the opportunities presented by a young population.

05:02

๐Ÿ“Š India's Economic Growth and Population Challenges

The script delves into India's economic performance amidst global economic challenges and the role of its population in this context. Despite the global economic downturn, India has shown robust economic growth. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to increasing population size and the challenges it poses, such as demographic dividend opportunities and the aging population. The script points out the need for innovative strategies in healthcare services, public-private partnerships, and addressing the disparity in wealth distribution. It also touches on the environmental impact of population growth, including unplanned urbanization and environmental degradation, and the importance of India's stance on climate change in the face of global criticism.

10:03

๐ŸŒฑ Sustainable Development and Population Growth

This paragraph examines the relationship between population growth and sustainable development, focusing on the challenges India faces due to its large and growing population. The script discusses the impact of population size on economic growth, income distribution, and the environment. It highlights the need for inclusive development, addressing income inequality, and the importance of education and family planning in reducing fertility rates. The role of women's empowerment and the government's initiatives in controlling population growth are emphasized, along with the importance of sustainable resource management to prevent environmental degradation and ensure long-term economic prosperity.

15:06

๐Ÿ“ˆ Investing in Youth and Family Planning for India's Future

The script underscores the importance of investing in India's young population for economic growth and the need for a stronger focus on family planning. It discusses the government's mission Paribar Vikas program targeting high fertility districts and the importance of scaling up and strengthening such initiatives. The panelists advocate for meeting the unmet need for family planning, empowering women, and providing education on contraceptives. They also stress the importance of India's role in climate change mitigation, renewable energy, and setting global standards for sustainable development.

20:06

๐Ÿ” China's Population Decline and Global Implications

The script addresses China's recent population decline and its potential global impact. It contrasts China's situation with India's ongoing population growth and the challenges both countries face due to their demographic trends. The discussion includes China's total fertility rate (TFR) drop and the potential temporary nature of this decline due to COVID-19 restrictions. The panelists also compare India's family planning policies with China's approach and the importance of education, women's empowerment, and labor force participation in managing population growth sustainably.

25:07

๐ŸŒ Conclusion on Global Population Dynamics and India's Path Forward

In conclusion, the script summarizes the key points discussed in the video, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of population dynamics and their impact on India and the world. It highlights the demographic dividend India will enjoy until 2055 and the need to address challenges through investments in health, education, and skill development. The script also calls for continued vigilance on population-related developments and a commitment to setting global standards for sustainable growth and development.

Mindmap

Keywords

๐Ÿ’กPopulation Decline

Population decline refers to a situation where the number of people in a region or country decreases over a certain period. In the video, it is mentioned that China has recorded its first population decline in several decades, with the population of mainland China at the end of 2022 being 1.411 billion, a decrease of approximately 850,000 over the previous year. This decline is significant as it marks a shift from the long-standing trend of population growth.

๐Ÿ’กDemographic Dividend

Demographic dividend is an economic concept that refers to the potential economic growth that can result from shifts in a population's age structure, mainly when the share of the working-age population is larger than the non-working-age population. In the video, it is discussed that India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-2006, which is expected to last until 2055-2056, indicating a period of potential economic growth due to a large, young, and productive workforce.

๐Ÿ’กPopulation Dynamics

Population dynamics encompass the changes in the size and composition of a population over time due to births, deaths, and migration. The video discusses the changing population dynamics globally and in specific regions like Asia, where China and India, being the most populous, are experiencing different trends that impact global population figures and economic forecasts.

๐Ÿ’กSustainable Development

Sustainable development is a key concept that refers to development that meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs. The video mentions that sustained high fertility and rapid population growth present challenges to achieving sustainable development, implying that managing population growth is crucial for long-term environmental and economic sustainability.

๐Ÿ’กPopulation Stabilization

Population stabilization indicates a state where the population growth rate slows down and the population size remains relatively constant. The video suggests that the population is stabilizing across the world, not just in India, which is an important development as it can influence economic policies and resource allocation.

๐Ÿ’กPopulation Momentum

Population momentum refers to the tendency for population growth to continue even after the fertility rate has declined, due to the age structure of the population. In the video, it is mentioned that India's population will increase for the next several years because of population momentum, as there is a large young population at reproductive age.

๐Ÿ’กFamily Planning

Family planning is the practice of deciding how many children to have and when to have them, often involving the use of contraceptives and other reproductive health services. The video discusses the importance of investing in family planning in India to meet the unmet need for contraception, particularly in high fertility districts, and to empower women to make informed decisions about their reproductive health.

๐Ÿ’กEconomic Growth

Economic growth is the increase in the production of goods and services of an economy over a period of time. The video highlights India's economic growth as a positive development, but also points out the challenges of increasing disparity and the need for inclusive growth to ensure that the benefits of economic growth are distributed equitably.

๐Ÿ’กInequality

Inequality refers to the unequal distribution of resources, wealth, or opportunities among different groups in a society. The video points out the challenge of increasing inequality in India, where 52 percent of wealth is concentrated in the hands of less than 10 percent of the population, which can create social and economic tensions.

๐Ÿ’กClimate Change

Climate change refers to long-term shifts in temperatures and weather patterns, primarily as a result of human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation. The video discusses India's efforts to address climate change and the importance of not being unfairly blamed for global climate issues, given its relatively lower contribution to greenhouse gas emissions compared to developed countries.

๐Ÿ’กSkilled Professionals

Skilled professionals are individuals who possess specialized knowledge and abilities in a particular field, often acquired through education and training. The video suggests that as the population stabilizes, countries like China may rely on India as a supplier of skilled professionals and labor, indicating the importance of investing in education and skill development to capitalize on the demographic dividend.

Highlights

China recorded its first population decline in decades, with a decrease of approximately 850,000 people by the end of 2022.

The United Nations projects the global population could reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.

India and China, with over 1.4 billion people each, are the world's two most populous regions.

India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-2006, which is expected to last until 2055-2056.

The central government of India has successfully controlled population growth, according to a Lok Sabha reply.

Population stabilization is occurring worldwide, not just in India, indicating a global demographic shift.

India's large young population presents an opportunity for demographic dividend through investment in education and skills.

India is expected to become a supplier of skilled professionals and labor to the rest of the world.

India has performed well economically despite global challenges, emphasizing the importance of investing in human resources.

As India becomes the most populous country, it faces criticism and potential pressure regarding climate change and population size.

India's population growth is expected to stabilize between 2055 and 2060 due to the current demographic trends.

India's economic growth and large population present challenges such as increasing disparity and unemployment.

Unplanned urbanization and environmental degradation are significant challenges that India must address for sustainable development.

India's population control programs have been effective, with the total fertility rate (TFR) falling below the replacement level.

India needs innovative strategies for healthcare, including public-private partnerships, to address the challenges of an aging population.

Investment in young people, education, and family planning is crucial for India to harness the demographic dividend effectively.

India must continue to perform well on climate change indices and invest in renewable energy to meet emission targets.

China's recent population decline may be a temporary phenomenon due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

India's approach to family planning and women's empowerment has been more effective than China's, leading to better demographic outcomes.

Transcripts

play00:02

foreign

play00:06

[Music]

play00:21

National and international issues today

play00:24

we're going to talk about the issue of

play00:26

population and changing population

play00:28

Dynamics across the globe China has

play00:31

recorded its first population decline in

play00:34

several decades according to the data

play00:35

published by the National Bureau of

play00:37

Statistics of China the population of

play00:39

mainland China was 1.411 billion people

play00:42

at the end of 2022 which is a decrease

play00:45

of approximately eight lakh 50 000 over

play00:48

the previous year last year in November

play00:50

when the world's population reached 8

play00:52

billion the United Nations projection

play00:54

suggested that the global population

play00:56

could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030

play01:00

9.7 Million by 2050 and 10.4 billion by

play01:04

2100 according to human reporter

play01:08

sustained high fertility and Rapid

play01:10

population growth a present challenges

play01:13

to the achievement of sustainable

play01:15

development in 2022 a World's two most

play01:18

populous regions were in Asia and with

play01:22

more than 1.4 billion each China and

play01:25

India accounted for most of the

play01:27

population in these two regions regions

play01:29

India entered the demographic dividend

play01:32

opportunity window in 2005-2006 and this

play01:37

window will remain till

play01:39

2055 and 2056. in December last year

play01:44

government the central government in a

play01:46

reply uh to a question in Lok Sabha had

play01:49

said that efforts have been successful

play01:51

in reigning in the growth of population

play01:54

in the country so today we'll try and

play01:55

understand various dynamics of you know

play01:58

the population growth and then these

play02:00

changing Dynamics what kind of impact do

play02:02

they have on not only India our neighbor

play02:05

China but globally as well and for more

play02:07

on this we joined by a distinguished

play02:09

panel of experts let me first introduce

play02:11

them to you beginning with

play02:12

joining us she is executive director of

play02:15

population Foundation of India we also

play02:17

have with us Dr SK Singh professor and

play02:19

head of the Department of research and

play02:22

data analytics at iips and Dr yamini

play02:24

Agarwal a professor at the Indian

play02:26

Institute of Finance is also with us

play02:28

welcome all of you to Sunset television

play02:30

I will begin with you much and let's

play02:32

first start by understanding what is

play02:35

changing actually when we are talking

play02:36

about you know population figures and

play02:38

these changing dynamics of course you

play02:41

know the growth rate of population will

play02:42

change in any particular period of time

play02:44

in in a given space but these kind of

play02:47

numbers figures which we are now trying

play02:49

to understand how big is the change and

play02:51

how significant is this change

play02:54

so we knew for the last several

play02:58

years that India is ultimately going to

play03:01

overtake the population of China

play03:04

second we also knew that India's

play03:07

population will grow up to

play03:10

1948 where our population stabilization

play03:14

will happen but we have started the

play03:17

process of stabilization so one I'd like

play03:20

to say the dynamic is that population is

play03:24

stabilizing across the world not just in

play03:27

India and we don't have to panic and

play03:29

have conversations and distract our

play03:32

attention about the two child normally

play03:34

we also know that India has a large

play03:38

young population which is at a

play03:41

reproductive age so India's population

play03:43

will increase for the next several years

play03:47

because of the population momentum young

play03:49

people even if they have one child it'll

play03:52

increase the population and so we have

play03:55

to recognize that one third of India's

play03:57

population is Young so India has as you

play04:01

said this enormous opportunity where the

play04:04

window know of getting for us to benefit

play04:08

from a population uh young population is

play04:12

there where demographic dividend can be

play04:14

realized so it's time for us to think

play04:17

about investing in young people

play04:19

education skills access to family

play04:23

planning and we also have to recognize

play04:27

that India is going through a curve

play04:29

which the world has gone through where

play04:31

populations increase and then come down

play04:34

and then reach minus growth rates in

play04:37

many countries like China which is

play04:39

worried and is giving incentives to its

play04:42

people to increase the population eat

play04:45

the rest of the world is probably going

play04:48

to rely and maybe even China One Day

play04:50

from India a young skilled or even older

play04:54

skilled people we are going to be

play04:55

suppliers of skilled

play04:59

professionals and labor to the rest of

play05:01

the world and so there will be a

play05:04

balanced imbalance that will be balanced

play05:07

okay finally India has done very well

play05:10

economically in the in spite of rest of

play05:14

the world

play05:15

um

play05:16

continuing to have especially cold post

play05:20

covered a decline in the economic growth

play05:22

and India's tip to really do well but

play05:26

provided we invest in our people human

play05:30

beings should be seen as a resource and

play05:32

the world has to stop panicking finally

play05:35

uh last point that I want to make is the

play05:38

as India becomes the most populous

play05:40

country there will be criticism they

play05:43

will be pitting climate change against

play05:46

um the large population and I think it's

play05:49

very important for the world and us to

play05:51

understand that India is doing well on

play05:54

the climate change and footprint we are

play05:58

not contributing the way a lot of

play06:00

developed countries have contributed and

play06:03

are going to continue to contribute to

play06:05

climate change India has to be prepared

play06:09

in understanding and saying and not be

play06:13

brow beaten by the rest of the world

play06:15

okay okay enough you've summarized a

play06:17

measure of major issues involved out

play06:20

there let me bring in Professor SK Singh

play06:22

here as well Professor Singh you know in

play06:24

terms of analyzing these these growth

play06:26

patterns and trying to understand as to

play06:28

what is changing not only from an Indian

play06:30

perspective but from a Global

play06:32

Perspective how would you look at the

play06:34

changes which are happening uh you know

play06:36

in in various parts of the globe but

play06:38

when we talk about Asia there are two

play06:40

most populous countries that is China

play06:41

and India uh you know uh one trying one

play06:44

taking uh over the other when we're

play06:46

looking at the population figures but

play06:48

it's stabilizing at uh as uh Ms mutraja

play06:51

pointed out whereas in in other parts of

play06:54

the globe also there are countries which

play06:56

are struggling to you know maintain that

play06:59

population growth and then there are

play07:00

other ah smaller countries where perhaps

play07:03

the population explosion is a cause of

play07:05

concern for them

play07:11

in population Dynamics some of the

play07:14

European countries American countries

play07:16

even Australia New Zealand are facing

play07:18

different kind of challenges and we

play07:21

Asian two LCN James India and China are

play07:25

facing different kind of huge population

play07:27

that is why whatever other recent

play07:30

changes in India and China that is going

play07:33

to affect the globe of course slight

play07:37

dynamics of African countries will be

play07:39

different that is why if you talk about

play07:41

the situation in India as

play07:47

Poonam ji has already mentioned that

play07:50

India is a quite comfortable situation

play07:52

during last one decayed not only

play07:55

population control program but various

play07:58

flexi programs has made Paradigm change

play08:01

in quality of life of the people

play08:03

population control program has been

play08:06

quite effective our TFR has gone below

play08:10

two other reason why only because of

play08:14

population momentum because of young

play08:16

population we will be continuing to grow

play08:19

around

play08:21

20 40 years or 2049 but subsequently we

play08:25

will decline uh she has already

play08:27

mentioned about the king features of our

play08:30

population Dynamics I would like to BC

play08:34

concentrate on the key challenges okay

play08:36

with the current situation in one hand

play08:39

we are having demographic dividend on

play08:42

the other hand we are also growing fast

play08:44

our older population with increasing

play08:47

population aging infusion burden of

play08:50

non-complicable disease in our country

play08:52

the universal coverage is going to be a

play08:56

remote challenge for our country okay

play08:58

that is why we will have some Innovative

play09:02

strategies by classifying secondary a

play09:07

Healthcare Services sponsored by

play09:09

government but entire vast network of

play09:12

primary health care which is serving for

play09:15

Rural people public private partnership

play09:17

is becoming most essential element along

play09:22

with prime minister

play09:26

otherwise this is this challenge will be

play09:29

very difficult she had also mentioned

play09:31

that India economic growth is quite

play09:34

satisfactory entire world is looking

play09:36

towards India how India GDP is

play09:39

increasing it's a fact that in one hand

play09:41

we are reaching towards 5 trillion

play09:45

economy but there is another challenge

play09:47

here increasing disparity okay all

play09:50

inequality

play09:51

some of the media houses has highlighted

play09:54

and that's a fact also

play09:56

that 52 percent of wealth is lying in

play10:00

only few less than 10 percent of only

play10:03

billion hours in our country and that's

play10:06

economic disparity is going to create a

play10:09

huge challenge especially when there is

play10:12

increasing unemployment

play10:15

Liverpool

play10:17

participation is declining gender

play10:20

differences in employment lowering

play10:23

declining on increasing unemployment

play10:25

rate are the real challenge okay not

play10:28

important problem which I am

play10:30

disappearing with this population is

play10:33

unplanned organization and environmental

play10:36

degradation we are talking about climate

play10:39

change in broader aspects but if you

play10:42

look at the root cause of that unplanned

play10:44

organization and environmental

play10:46

degradation is going to be another key

play10:49

challenge before the country which we

play10:51

will have to address in near future

play10:53

otherwise population Dynamics population

play10:57

growth that is not going to be we all

play11:01

are aware that we are going to stabilize

play11:04

somewhere between

play11:07

2055 to 2016. okay anytime during that

play11:11

period because projections are

play11:13

projection look at China

play11:18

we'll come to that but since you

play11:20

mentioned you know a lot of challenges

play11:21

when we're talking about India let me

play11:23

also bring in Dr yamini Agarwal you know

play11:25

she's been patiently uh uh listening to

play11:27

the Views uh both of you had and and uh

play11:30

since you spoke about few parts of that

play11:32

uh uh Dr Agarwal you know United Nations

play11:35

also in its report says that uh the

play11:37

rapid growth of population also uh leads

play11:40

to the challenges of of sustainable

play11:42

development now when we come back to

play11:44

Indian story you know India has has

play11:46

strong economic fundamentals it is a you

play11:49

know uh vibrant growing economy and then

play11:52

on top of that we have this demographic

play11:54

dividend as well which will add further

play11:56

impetus and further value also but given

play11:58

the fact that there are various

play12:00

challenges which Dr Singh also pointed

play12:01

out how do you analyze you know this

play12:03

this combination which will have to be

play12:06

balanced properly

play12:08

well you've placed a very important

play12:09

point because what happens is whatever

play12:11

the amount of growth that you do does

play12:14

get affected by the population size that

play12:17

you have and if the population size

play12:19

continues to grow the growth does not

play12:22

reflect in the overall development of

play12:24

the economy let's say for example when

play12:26

we talk about per capita income we

play12:28

should grow and the rate at which the

play12:30

GDP is growing but it doesn't reflect

play12:32

because the population size is

play12:33

continuously growing uh again another

play12:36

important aspect is because the economy

play12:38

is growing fast it should also result in

play12:42

uh you know a good distribution of

play12:44

incomes among people but because a

play12:48

certain set of people uh we observe that

play12:51

they get into the vicious circle of

play12:53

poverty because they raise too many kids

play12:56

at the same time they are unable to

play12:58

provide them with the right kind of

play13:00

education right kind of health services

play13:02

or the right kind of support for them to

play13:05

actually rise in the ladder of economic

play13:07

uh growth or Economic Development

play13:09

another important aspect is what is

play13:12

observed is that over the years with the

play13:14

help of Education with the help of uh

play13:17

you know population control measures

play13:18

with the two child policy or with other

play13:22

things even the participation of women

play13:24

increasing in terms of uh the overall uh

play13:28

labor force there has been a change in

play13:31

the attitudes of people which is

play13:33

reflected in the low fertility rates or

play13:36

in the uh lower number of children that

play13:39

people are having especially in the

play13:41

urban area where the two to have one

play13:43

child which of his two children also but

play13:45

what has happened is the people who are

play13:47

not within this fear of economic

play13:50

Prosperity do not receive uh you know

play13:52

the educational benefits do not receive

play13:55

other benefits they continue to have

play13:58

more and more children which put more

play14:01

pressure on their resources as well as

play14:03

on the resources of the country

play14:06

for a sustainable growth it is necessary

play14:08

that everybody's development is there

play14:11

and it is inclusive in nature despite

play14:14

providing all welfare schemes whether it

play14:17

is in terms of food it whether it is in

play14:19

terms of other things these particular

play14:22

welfare schemes you know somehow still

play14:24

are not able to achieve their objective

play14:26

because of the large base of population

play14:28

at that point of time another important

play14:31

aspect for sustainability is that you

play14:34

know when uh provisioning is made of a

play14:37

certain amount of services whether it's

play14:39

education it is health care or it's any

play14:42

other resource that is there in the

play14:44

market that particular resource crunch

play14:48

is felt because of the continuous

play14:50

growing population okay and that crunch

play14:52

causes more and more problems

play14:54

specifically because uh there is more

play14:57

income inequalities which makes

play14:59

resources more scarce for the poorer

play15:03

population

play15:06

literature population okay exploit

play15:08

exploit of environmental resources or

play15:12

other resources which are maybe not

play15:15

health-wise better or may not be or are

play15:19

of a substandard technology are used by

play15:21

people which make it more unsustainable

play15:23

okay for example when we talk about the

play15:25

air pollution level uh when Winters are

play15:28

there people are not able to find venues

play15:30

to you know get themselves some heat so

play15:33

they burn wood so that causes more air

play15:35

pollution

play15:36

similarly there are many other issues

play15:39

that arise like uh you know uh getting

play15:42

into a non-environment friendly

play15:45

activities the similar set because they

play15:48

feel that that is less expensive so

play15:52

unsustainable so so these are smaller

play15:54

issues they might they might look

play15:55

smaller at a particular level but then

play15:58

they do gradually you know uh add on to

play16:00

become bigger larger challenges is what

play16:03

uh Dr Agarwal is pointing out uh I'd

play16:06

like to bring you in here you know the

play16:07

challenges part which uh you also

play16:10

earlier referred to that yes there are

play16:12

and uh you we are on the path to tackle

play16:14

those challenges but when we are talking

play16:15

about Focus areas as Dr Singh said you

play16:17

know health education Dr Agarwal is also

play16:20

pointing out perhaps you know looking at

play16:21

uh uh you know the quality of life as

play16:24

well increasing the quality of life

play16:26

which areas you believe in the years to

play16:28

come we should focus on so that we can

play16:31

make good use of the demographic

play16:34

dividend which we have and Tech tackle

play16:37

the challenges or the negative aspects

play16:39

of these changing you know population

play16:40

Dynamics in a better way

play16:42

so the first I'd like to say that we

play16:45

must invest in killing our young people

play16:48

for their economic growth and our the

play16:52

country's economic growth second I'd

play16:55

like to say that India has to invest

play16:58

more in Family Planning we have made

play17:03

some progress a fair amount of progress

play17:06

especially reaching out to the last mile

play17:09

we have invested a very good program

play17:13

that the government of India came out

play17:15

with six years ago called the mission

play17:17

paribar vikas where they're targeting

play17:20

the high fertility districts and that

play17:22

has brought some good results that needs

play17:25

to be scaled up it needs to be

play17:27

strengthened second we need you know Dr

play17:31

Mukherjee has said that the Agarwal had

play17:33

said that there are

play17:35

Indian poor families end up having more

play17:40

children it's very true the more more

play17:42

educated you are the fewer children

play17:45

you'll have the more income you have the

play17:48

fewer children you will have and it is

play17:51

the unmet need we must understand for

play17:54

family planning in India which is in

play17:56

government data it is today 10 but in

play17:59

States like up it's still 13 so we need

play18:02

to invest in meeting the unmet need we

play18:06

need to invest in women's empowerment

play18:08

whereby women have the decision-making

play18:12

ability capability freedom to make uh to

play18:17

to use contraceptives and we need for a

play18:20

young population India needs to invest

play18:23

not just money but it needs to bring in

play18:26

more methods okay for Family Planning

play18:29

which are temporary which are long

play18:31

lasting temporary but not the young

play18:34

people are not going to get sterilized

play18:36

we must also recognize that young people

play18:39

do have needs for contraception and they

play18:41

also need sex education but final one I

play18:45

would say India must continue to be on

play18:47

the path of Performing well on the

play18:49

climate may change index which we are

play18:52

doing well on an international climate

play18:55

politics

play18:56

India earns a high actually rating in

play19:00

the gag emissions also and energy

play19:03

renewable uh energy the countries on

play19:07

track to meet the 2030

play19:10

emission targets and I think if India

play19:13

could be a great example for the rest of

play19:16

the world to invest more in compatible

play19:20

and a well below

play19:22

um you know the rest of the world uh

play19:25

emission

play19:27

pattern and it is believed that a large

play19:30

growing population might be a child is a

play19:33

challenge to the environment but the

play19:35

over exploitation of resources what we

play19:39

saw in uttar Khan for instance recently

play19:41

India must come down very heavily on

play19:46

um preventing climate disasters because

play19:48

it impacts the poor for the middle class

play19:51

the lower middle class okay the most

play19:54

okay definitely I'd like yes please

play19:58

I finally would like to say that we must

play20:01

recognize that we have a young

play20:03

population which we have to not only

play20:06

invest in their Skilling mental

play20:08

well-being education everything we we

play20:11

have to have a plan for our young people

play20:13

and indeed we have to have a plan and

play20:14

India being the largest democracy and

play20:16

soon you know uh the most uh populist

play20:19

country as well will have to set

play20:20

standards Global standards to be met by

play20:23

others now uh this was all about India

play20:25

but let's quickly you know uh one is one

play20:28

question each from Professor Singh and

play20:30

Dr Agarwal as well on the global aspect

play20:31

professing when I interrupted you

play20:33

earlier you know you were about to give

play20:35

us a view on China which has been so far

play20:38

the most populous country they're now

play20:40

seeing a downtrend as well similarly you

play20:42

know the changing Trends the changing

play20:44

Dynamics are world over in in population

play20:47

standards in population metrics how do

play20:49

you see that changes things glow

play20:51

changing things globally for other

play20:53

countries other economies as well

play20:55

the if you look at the last year 2020

play20:58

estimates of United Nations China India

play21:03

will cross China somewhere 2829 but last

play21:07

year in their last year estimates United

play21:10

Nations has revised it and now only

play21:12

estimates that they should cross us uh

play21:16

India should cross China and India will

play21:18

become number one sometimes in July okay

play21:21

in the last few weeks last few weeks

play21:23

many media process I am not say about

play21:26

their sources of information are

play21:29

claiming that India has crossed China

play21:30

what had happened in China India is

play21:33

progressing is steadily as Dr

play21:36

poonamuthraja has already

play21:38

pointed out about success of Indian

play21:40

Family Planning program I have already

play21:42

mentioned you our TFR has gone below

play21:45

replacement level and it's a question of

play21:48

only population momentum after that we

play21:51

will hold down and then I move towards

play21:53

challenges okay China what has happened

play21:56

if China has drastically reduced during

play22:00

last two to three years if you look at

play22:03

their TFR till late it is their TFR was

play22:07

2.6 or 2.7 in late 90s their ta bar was

play22:13

1.61.7 and that continuing it went up to

play22:16

first decade of the currency okay

play22:21

suddenly in 2022 it came down to 1.3 TFR

play22:26

in 2022 2021 it came down to 1.15 we

play22:33

suspect that that is primarily because

play22:35

of codeine related restrictions okay

play22:38

Birth has put so down you know the

play22:41

screen was so also showing some Aflac 50

play22:44

000 figures

play22:45

fortunately has not passed through that

play22:48

and that is why whatever has happened in

play22:51

China that can be treated as a temporary

play22:54

phenomena okay okay that's that's that's

play22:56

that's that's that's that's fairly

play22:58

fairly point taken toxic think we're

play23:00

running very short of time so I'll you

play23:01

know I'll interrupt you there and I'll

play23:02

quickly take one final response from Dr

play23:05

Agarwal there also on the global aspect

play23:07

and then Chinese angle also as Professor

play23:10

Singh is pointing out of course we can't

play23:11

Overlook that China is our immediate

play23:13

neighbor and uh you know in terms of

play23:16

population in terms of economic growth

play23:17

in terms of demographic dividend China

play23:20

was a few years ago where we we would be

play23:23

in in next few years

play23:25

well I think the Chinese with their

play23:27

policy are actually facing a reverse

play23:29

pyramid where you have they have the

play23:31

older population which is bigger and the

play23:33

younger population which is smaller

play23:34

which is making it a difficult

play23:36

sustainability issue but what India

play23:38

adopted as a policy of true child one

play23:41

family and a family planning was a much

play23:43

better approach also what the India has

play23:46

been doing is it has been trying to

play23:48

provide uh for a certain set of

play23:50

education and empowerment to women by

play23:53

bringing their labor force participation

play23:55

at a higher rate one important aspect is

play23:58

the marriage build which the government

play24:00

is planning to break about where the age

play24:02

of the girl for the marriage is being

play24:04

raised for 21 which automatically brings

play24:07

a higher uh you know a higher level of

play24:11

understanding for a girl before she is

play24:14

into a matrimonial Alliance and Begins

play24:17

the cycle of a reproduction okay another

play24:19

important aspect is that there has been

play24:22

a continuous education among the youth

play24:25

and among the people with respect to

play24:27

contraceptives and other aspects which

play24:30

have definitely benefited people okay

play24:33

education policy also has been strong

play24:36

and stringent enough to bring about the

play24:39

necessary awareness in this regard okay

play24:42

I believe the direct difference

play24:43

directive role which the government has

play24:45

been playing is very essential in terms

play24:48

of taking control of the population

play24:51

get a venue for uh productive resources

play24:54

like skill development or jobs or other

play24:57

things okay there it is thank you so

play24:58

much uh Dr yamini Agarwal Miss mutraja

play25:01

and Dr Singh as well for sharing your

play25:02

valuable time and inputs with us and our

play25:04

viewers as well as our experts were

play25:06

pointing out very clearly there are

play25:08

various aspects to uh this changing

play25:10

population Dynamics not only a wizard

play25:13

with India but globally as well but when

play25:15

we ah come down to Indian Dynamics then

play25:18

there are various aspects which will

play25:20

have to be looked into it does pose a

play25:22

lot of challenges it do have uh you know

play25:25

its benefits in terms of demographic

play25:27

dividend which will continue to be with

play25:28

us till 2055 but then those challenges

play25:32

also will have to be tackled on the way

play25:34

by focusing more on health education

play25:36

Skilling our population and looking at

play25:39

various other aspects also we'll keep a

play25:41

close watch on all the developments here

play25:42

and come back again with a different

play25:43

topic till then keep watching Sunset

play25:45

television thank you

play25:47

foreign

play25:51

[Music]

Rate This
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Related Tags
Population DeclineDemographic DividendIndia GrowthChina TrendsSustainabilityEconomic ChallengesHealthcare ServicesEducation PolicyFamily PlanningClimate ChangeGlobal Economy