Perspective : Changing Population Dynamics | 19 January, 2023
Summary
TLDRThe video discusses global population dynamics, highlighting China's first recorded population decline and India's impending overtake as the most populous nation. Experts emphasize India's demographic dividend opportunity until 2055, stressing the need for investment in education, skills, and family planning. They also address challenges such as economic disparity, environmental degradation, and the importance of sustainable development, urging India to leverage its young population as a global resource while managing population growth and climate change responsibilities.
Takeaways
- ๐ China has experienced its first population decline in decades, with a decrease of approximately 850,000 people by the end of 2022.
- ๐ The United Nations projects that the global population will continue to grow, reaching an estimated 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
- ๐ฎ๐ณ India and China are the two most populous regions in Asia, each with over 1.4 billion people, and are key to understanding global population dynamics.
- ๐ India entered its demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-2006, which is expected to last until 2055-2056, indicating a potential economic advantage due to a young, working-age population.
- ๐ฏ The Indian government has successfully controlled population growth, and the total fertility rate (TFR) has fallen below the replacement level of two.
- ๐ฅ India's large young population presents an opportunity for demographic dividend, emphasizing the need for investment in education, skills, and family planning.
- ๐ The world may rely on India as a supplier of skilled professionals and labor, indicating a potential shift in global demographic and economic dynamics.
- ๐ผ Despite global economic challenges, India has performed well economically, but must address increasing disparities and unemployment to sustain growth.
- ๐ฅ Key challenges for India include managing an aging population, non-communicable diseases, and the need for innovative healthcare strategies, including public-private partnerships.
- ๐ฑ Environmental degradation and climate change are significant concerns, with India striving to balance population growth with sustainable development and low carbon emissions.
- ๐ As India is set to become the most populous country, it faces global scrutiny and must assert its commitment to climate change mitigation, despite its lower per capita contribution compared to developed countries.
Q & A
What significant change has China's population experienced recently?
-China has recorded its first population decline in several decades, with the population of mainland China at the end of 2022 being 1.411 billion people, which is a decrease of approximately 850,000 over the previous year.
What is the United Nations' projection for the global population growth by 2100?
-The United Nations projection suggests that the global population could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
What is the demographic dividend opportunity window, and how does it relate to India?
-The demographic dividend opportunity window refers to the period when a country has a large proportion of its population in the working age group, which can lead to economic growth. India entered this window in 2005-2006, and it is expected to remain open until 2055-2056.
What is the current status of India's population growth control efforts according to the central government?
-The central government in India has stated that efforts have been successful in reigning in the growth of the population, indicating a decline in the population growth rate.
How does the stabilization of the global population impact India and the world?
-The stabilization of the global population, including in India, indicates a shift in population dynamics that requires a focus on investing in young people, education, skills, and family planning, as well as recognizing the potential for India to become a supplier of skilled professionals and labor to the rest of the world.
What are the key challenges that India faces with its current population dynamics?
-Key challenges include managing the demographic dividend, addressing increasing population aging and the burden of non-communicable diseases, ensuring universal healthcare coverage, reducing economic disparity, and dealing with unemployment and gender disparities in employment.
What is the role of education in India's population control measures?
-Education plays a significant role in India's population control measures by raising awareness about family planning, improving women's empowerment, and contributing to lower fertility rates, especially in urban areas.
How does India's economic growth relate to its population size and distribution?
-India's economic growth is affected by its population size and distribution. While the GDP is increasing, the growth does not necessarily reflect in overall development due to the continuous population growth. Additionally, income inequalities and disparities in wealth distribution pose challenges.
What are the environmental implications of India's population growth?
-Environmental implications include unplanned urbanization, environmental degradation, and challenges related to climate change. There is a need to address these issues to ensure sustainable growth and to prevent overexploitation of resources.
How can India make the most of its demographic dividend while addressing the challenges?
-India can make the most of its demographic dividend by investing in the education and skill development of its young population, promoting family planning, ensuring inclusive growth, and focusing on sustainable development practices.
What is the potential impact of China's recent population decline on global dynamics?
-China's population decline could have significant global impacts, including potential shifts in economic power, labor markets, and global demographic trends. It may also influence other countries' policies on population control and economic planning.
Outlines
๐ Global Population Dynamics and India's Demographic Dividend
The video script discusses the shifting global population dynamics, with a focus on China's first recorded population decline in decades and the implications for sustainable development. China's population was reported to be 1.411 billion at the end of 2022, marking a decrease from the previous year. The United Nations projects a continued global population growth, reaching 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100. India and China, being the two most populous regions in Asia, are highlighted, with India entering a demographic dividend opportunity window that will last until 2055-2056. The Indian government's efforts in population control are acknowledged, and the discussion emphasizes the need to understand the changing population dynamics and their impact on India, China, and the world. The panel of experts includes the executive director of the Population Foundation of India, a professor from iips, and a professor from the Indian Institute of Finance, who provide insights into population growth rates, stabilization, and the opportunities presented by a young population.
๐ India's Economic Growth and Population Challenges
The script delves into India's economic performance amidst global economic challenges and the role of its population in this context. Despite the global economic downturn, India has shown robust economic growth. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth due to increasing population size and the challenges it poses, such as demographic dividend opportunities and the aging population. The script points out the need for innovative strategies in healthcare services, public-private partnerships, and addressing the disparity in wealth distribution. It also touches on the environmental impact of population growth, including unplanned urbanization and environmental degradation, and the importance of India's stance on climate change in the face of global criticism.
๐ฑ Sustainable Development and Population Growth
This paragraph examines the relationship between population growth and sustainable development, focusing on the challenges India faces due to its large and growing population. The script discusses the impact of population size on economic growth, income distribution, and the environment. It highlights the need for inclusive development, addressing income inequality, and the importance of education and family planning in reducing fertility rates. The role of women's empowerment and the government's initiatives in controlling population growth are emphasized, along with the importance of sustainable resource management to prevent environmental degradation and ensure long-term economic prosperity.
๐ Investing in Youth and Family Planning for India's Future
The script underscores the importance of investing in India's young population for economic growth and the need for a stronger focus on family planning. It discusses the government's mission Paribar Vikas program targeting high fertility districts and the importance of scaling up and strengthening such initiatives. The panelists advocate for meeting the unmet need for family planning, empowering women, and providing education on contraceptives. They also stress the importance of India's role in climate change mitigation, renewable energy, and setting global standards for sustainable development.
๐ China's Population Decline and Global Implications
The script addresses China's recent population decline and its potential global impact. It contrasts China's situation with India's ongoing population growth and the challenges both countries face due to their demographic trends. The discussion includes China's total fertility rate (TFR) drop and the potential temporary nature of this decline due to COVID-19 restrictions. The panelists also compare India's family planning policies with China's approach and the importance of education, women's empowerment, and labor force participation in managing population growth sustainably.
๐ Conclusion on Global Population Dynamics and India's Path Forward
In conclusion, the script summarizes the key points discussed in the video, emphasizing the multifaceted nature of population dynamics and their impact on India and the world. It highlights the demographic dividend India will enjoy until 2055 and the need to address challenges through investments in health, education, and skill development. The script also calls for continued vigilance on population-related developments and a commitment to setting global standards for sustainable growth and development.
Mindmap
Keywords
๐กPopulation Decline
๐กDemographic Dividend
๐กPopulation Dynamics
๐กSustainable Development
๐กPopulation Stabilization
๐กPopulation Momentum
๐กFamily Planning
๐กEconomic Growth
๐กInequality
๐กClimate Change
๐กSkilled Professionals
Highlights
China recorded its first population decline in decades, with a decrease of approximately 850,000 people by the end of 2022.
The United Nations projects the global population could reach 8.5 billion by 2030, 9.7 billion by 2050, and 10.4 billion by 2100.
India and China, with over 1.4 billion people each, are the world's two most populous regions.
India entered the demographic dividend opportunity window in 2005-2006, which is expected to last until 2055-2056.
The central government of India has successfully controlled population growth, according to a Lok Sabha reply.
Population stabilization is occurring worldwide, not just in India, indicating a global demographic shift.
India's large young population presents an opportunity for demographic dividend through investment in education and skills.
India is expected to become a supplier of skilled professionals and labor to the rest of the world.
India has performed well economically despite global challenges, emphasizing the importance of investing in human resources.
As India becomes the most populous country, it faces criticism and potential pressure regarding climate change and population size.
India's population growth is expected to stabilize between 2055 and 2060 due to the current demographic trends.
India's economic growth and large population present challenges such as increasing disparity and unemployment.
Unplanned urbanization and environmental degradation are significant challenges that India must address for sustainable development.
India's population control programs have been effective, with the total fertility rate (TFR) falling below the replacement level.
India needs innovative strategies for healthcare, including public-private partnerships, to address the challenges of an aging population.
Investment in young people, education, and family planning is crucial for India to harness the demographic dividend effectively.
India must continue to perform well on climate change indices and invest in renewable energy to meet emission targets.
China's recent population decline may be a temporary phenomenon due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.
India's approach to family planning and women's empowerment has been more effective than China's, leading to better demographic outcomes.
Transcripts
foreign
[Music]
National and international issues today
we're going to talk about the issue of
population and changing population
Dynamics across the globe China has
recorded its first population decline in
several decades according to the data
published by the National Bureau of
Statistics of China the population of
mainland China was 1.411 billion people
at the end of 2022 which is a decrease
of approximately eight lakh 50 000 over
the previous year last year in November
when the world's population reached 8
billion the United Nations projection
suggested that the global population
could grow to around 8.5 billion in 2030
9.7 Million by 2050 and 10.4 billion by
2100 according to human reporter
sustained high fertility and Rapid
population growth a present challenges
to the achievement of sustainable
development in 2022 a World's two most
populous regions were in Asia and with
more than 1.4 billion each China and
India accounted for most of the
population in these two regions regions
India entered the demographic dividend
opportunity window in 2005-2006 and this
window will remain till
2055 and 2056. in December last year
government the central government in a
reply uh to a question in Lok Sabha had
said that efforts have been successful
in reigning in the growth of population
in the country so today we'll try and
understand various dynamics of you know
the population growth and then these
changing Dynamics what kind of impact do
they have on not only India our neighbor
China but globally as well and for more
on this we joined by a distinguished
panel of experts let me first introduce
them to you beginning with
joining us she is executive director of
population Foundation of India we also
have with us Dr SK Singh professor and
head of the Department of research and
data analytics at iips and Dr yamini
Agarwal a professor at the Indian
Institute of Finance is also with us
welcome all of you to Sunset television
I will begin with you much and let's
first start by understanding what is
changing actually when we are talking
about you know population figures and
these changing dynamics of course you
know the growth rate of population will
change in any particular period of time
in in a given space but these kind of
numbers figures which we are now trying
to understand how big is the change and
how significant is this change
so we knew for the last several
years that India is ultimately going to
overtake the population of China
second we also knew that India's
population will grow up to
1948 where our population stabilization
will happen but we have started the
process of stabilization so one I'd like
to say the dynamic is that population is
stabilizing across the world not just in
India and we don't have to panic and
have conversations and distract our
attention about the two child normally
we also know that India has a large
young population which is at a
reproductive age so India's population
will increase for the next several years
because of the population momentum young
people even if they have one child it'll
increase the population and so we have
to recognize that one third of India's
population is Young so India has as you
said this enormous opportunity where the
window know of getting for us to benefit
from a population uh young population is
there where demographic dividend can be
realized so it's time for us to think
about investing in young people
education skills access to family
planning and we also have to recognize
that India is going through a curve
which the world has gone through where
populations increase and then come down
and then reach minus growth rates in
many countries like China which is
worried and is giving incentives to its
people to increase the population eat
the rest of the world is probably going
to rely and maybe even China One Day
from India a young skilled or even older
skilled people we are going to be
suppliers of skilled
professionals and labor to the rest of
the world and so there will be a
balanced imbalance that will be balanced
okay finally India has done very well
economically in the in spite of rest of
the world
um
continuing to have especially cold post
covered a decline in the economic growth
and India's tip to really do well but
provided we invest in our people human
beings should be seen as a resource and
the world has to stop panicking finally
uh last point that I want to make is the
as India becomes the most populous
country there will be criticism they
will be pitting climate change against
um the large population and I think it's
very important for the world and us to
understand that India is doing well on
the climate change and footprint we are
not contributing the way a lot of
developed countries have contributed and
are going to continue to contribute to
climate change India has to be prepared
in understanding and saying and not be
brow beaten by the rest of the world
okay okay enough you've summarized a
measure of major issues involved out
there let me bring in Professor SK Singh
here as well Professor Singh you know in
terms of analyzing these these growth
patterns and trying to understand as to
what is changing not only from an Indian
perspective but from a Global
Perspective how would you look at the
changes which are happening uh you know
in in various parts of the globe but
when we talk about Asia there are two
most populous countries that is China
and India uh you know uh one trying one
taking uh over the other when we're
looking at the population figures but
it's stabilizing at uh as uh Ms mutraja
pointed out whereas in in other parts of
the globe also there are countries which
are struggling to you know maintain that
population growth and then there are
other ah smaller countries where perhaps
the population explosion is a cause of
concern for them
in population Dynamics some of the
European countries American countries
even Australia New Zealand are facing
different kind of challenges and we
Asian two LCN James India and China are
facing different kind of huge population
that is why whatever other recent
changes in India and China that is going
to affect the globe of course slight
dynamics of African countries will be
different that is why if you talk about
the situation in India as
Poonam ji has already mentioned that
India is a quite comfortable situation
during last one decayed not only
population control program but various
flexi programs has made Paradigm change
in quality of life of the people
population control program has been
quite effective our TFR has gone below
two other reason why only because of
population momentum because of young
population we will be continuing to grow
around
20 40 years or 2049 but subsequently we
will decline uh she has already
mentioned about the king features of our
population Dynamics I would like to BC
concentrate on the key challenges okay
with the current situation in one hand
we are having demographic dividend on
the other hand we are also growing fast
our older population with increasing
population aging infusion burden of
non-complicable disease in our country
the universal coverage is going to be a
remote challenge for our country okay
that is why we will have some Innovative
strategies by classifying secondary a
Healthcare Services sponsored by
government but entire vast network of
primary health care which is serving for
Rural people public private partnership
is becoming most essential element along
with prime minister
otherwise this is this challenge will be
very difficult she had also mentioned
that India economic growth is quite
satisfactory entire world is looking
towards India how India GDP is
increasing it's a fact that in one hand
we are reaching towards 5 trillion
economy but there is another challenge
here increasing disparity okay all
inequality
some of the media houses has highlighted
and that's a fact also
that 52 percent of wealth is lying in
only few less than 10 percent of only
billion hours in our country and that's
economic disparity is going to create a
huge challenge especially when there is
increasing unemployment
Liverpool
participation is declining gender
differences in employment lowering
declining on increasing unemployment
rate are the real challenge okay not
important problem which I am
disappearing with this population is
unplanned organization and environmental
degradation we are talking about climate
change in broader aspects but if you
look at the root cause of that unplanned
organization and environmental
degradation is going to be another key
challenge before the country which we
will have to address in near future
otherwise population Dynamics population
growth that is not going to be we all
are aware that we are going to stabilize
somewhere between
2055 to 2016. okay anytime during that
period because projections are
projection look at China
we'll come to that but since you
mentioned you know a lot of challenges
when we're talking about India let me
also bring in Dr yamini Agarwal you know
she's been patiently uh uh listening to
the Views uh both of you had and and uh
since you spoke about few parts of that
uh uh Dr Agarwal you know United Nations
also in its report says that uh the
rapid growth of population also uh leads
to the challenges of of sustainable
development now when we come back to
Indian story you know India has has
strong economic fundamentals it is a you
know uh vibrant growing economy and then
on top of that we have this demographic
dividend as well which will add further
impetus and further value also but given
the fact that there are various
challenges which Dr Singh also pointed
out how do you analyze you know this
this combination which will have to be
balanced properly
well you've placed a very important
point because what happens is whatever
the amount of growth that you do does
get affected by the population size that
you have and if the population size
continues to grow the growth does not
reflect in the overall development of
the economy let's say for example when
we talk about per capita income we
should grow and the rate at which the
GDP is growing but it doesn't reflect
because the population size is
continuously growing uh again another
important aspect is because the economy
is growing fast it should also result in
uh you know a good distribution of
incomes among people but because a
certain set of people uh we observe that
they get into the vicious circle of
poverty because they raise too many kids
at the same time they are unable to
provide them with the right kind of
education right kind of health services
or the right kind of support for them to
actually rise in the ladder of economic
uh growth or Economic Development
another important aspect is what is
observed is that over the years with the
help of Education with the help of uh
you know population control measures
with the two child policy or with other
things even the participation of women
increasing in terms of uh the overall uh
labor force there has been a change in
the attitudes of people which is
reflected in the low fertility rates or
in the uh lower number of children that
people are having especially in the
urban area where the two to have one
child which of his two children also but
what has happened is the people who are
not within this fear of economic
Prosperity do not receive uh you know
the educational benefits do not receive
other benefits they continue to have
more and more children which put more
pressure on their resources as well as
on the resources of the country
for a sustainable growth it is necessary
that everybody's development is there
and it is inclusive in nature despite
providing all welfare schemes whether it
is in terms of food it whether it is in
terms of other things these particular
welfare schemes you know somehow still
are not able to achieve their objective
because of the large base of population
at that point of time another important
aspect for sustainability is that you
know when uh provisioning is made of a
certain amount of services whether it's
education it is health care or it's any
other resource that is there in the
market that particular resource crunch
is felt because of the continuous
growing population okay and that crunch
causes more and more problems
specifically because uh there is more
income inequalities which makes
resources more scarce for the poorer
population
literature population okay exploit
exploit of environmental resources or
other resources which are maybe not
health-wise better or may not be or are
of a substandard technology are used by
people which make it more unsustainable
okay for example when we talk about the
air pollution level uh when Winters are
there people are not able to find venues
to you know get themselves some heat so
they burn wood so that causes more air
pollution
similarly there are many other issues
that arise like uh you know uh getting
into a non-environment friendly
activities the similar set because they
feel that that is less expensive so
unsustainable so so these are smaller
issues they might they might look
smaller at a particular level but then
they do gradually you know uh add on to
become bigger larger challenges is what
uh Dr Agarwal is pointing out uh I'd
like to bring you in here you know the
challenges part which uh you also
earlier referred to that yes there are
and uh you we are on the path to tackle
those challenges but when we are talking
about Focus areas as Dr Singh said you
know health education Dr Agarwal is also
pointing out perhaps you know looking at
uh uh you know the quality of life as
well increasing the quality of life
which areas you believe in the years to
come we should focus on so that we can
make good use of the demographic
dividend which we have and Tech tackle
the challenges or the negative aspects
of these changing you know population
Dynamics in a better way
so the first I'd like to say that we
must invest in killing our young people
for their economic growth and our the
country's economic growth second I'd
like to say that India has to invest
more in Family Planning we have made
some progress a fair amount of progress
especially reaching out to the last mile
we have invested a very good program
that the government of India came out
with six years ago called the mission
paribar vikas where they're targeting
the high fertility districts and that
has brought some good results that needs
to be scaled up it needs to be
strengthened second we need you know Dr
Mukherjee has said that the Agarwal had
said that there are
Indian poor families end up having more
children it's very true the more more
educated you are the fewer children
you'll have the more income you have the
fewer children you will have and it is
the unmet need we must understand for
family planning in India which is in
government data it is today 10 but in
States like up it's still 13 so we need
to invest in meeting the unmet need we
need to invest in women's empowerment
whereby women have the decision-making
ability capability freedom to make uh to
to use contraceptives and we need for a
young population India needs to invest
not just money but it needs to bring in
more methods okay for Family Planning
which are temporary which are long
lasting temporary but not the young
people are not going to get sterilized
we must also recognize that young people
do have needs for contraception and they
also need sex education but final one I
would say India must continue to be on
the path of Performing well on the
climate may change index which we are
doing well on an international climate
politics
India earns a high actually rating in
the gag emissions also and energy
renewable uh energy the countries on
track to meet the 2030
emission targets and I think if India
could be a great example for the rest of
the world to invest more in compatible
and a well below
um you know the rest of the world uh
emission
pattern and it is believed that a large
growing population might be a child is a
challenge to the environment but the
over exploitation of resources what we
saw in uttar Khan for instance recently
India must come down very heavily on
um preventing climate disasters because
it impacts the poor for the middle class
the lower middle class okay the most
okay definitely I'd like yes please
I finally would like to say that we must
recognize that we have a young
population which we have to not only
invest in their Skilling mental
well-being education everything we we
have to have a plan for our young people
and indeed we have to have a plan and
India being the largest democracy and
soon you know uh the most uh populist
country as well will have to set
standards Global standards to be met by
others now uh this was all about India
but let's quickly you know uh one is one
question each from Professor Singh and
Dr Agarwal as well on the global aspect
professing when I interrupted you
earlier you know you were about to give
us a view on China which has been so far
the most populous country they're now
seeing a downtrend as well similarly you
know the changing Trends the changing
Dynamics are world over in in population
standards in population metrics how do
you see that changes things glow
changing things globally for other
countries other economies as well
the if you look at the last year 2020
estimates of United Nations China India
will cross China somewhere 2829 but last
year in their last year estimates United
Nations has revised it and now only
estimates that they should cross us uh
India should cross China and India will
become number one sometimes in July okay
in the last few weeks last few weeks
many media process I am not say about
their sources of information are
claiming that India has crossed China
what had happened in China India is
progressing is steadily as Dr
poonamuthraja has already
pointed out about success of Indian
Family Planning program I have already
mentioned you our TFR has gone below
replacement level and it's a question of
only population momentum after that we
will hold down and then I move towards
challenges okay China what has happened
if China has drastically reduced during
last two to three years if you look at
their TFR till late it is their TFR was
2.6 or 2.7 in late 90s their ta bar was
1.61.7 and that continuing it went up to
first decade of the currency okay
suddenly in 2022 it came down to 1.3 TFR
in 2022 2021 it came down to 1.15 we
suspect that that is primarily because
of codeine related restrictions okay
Birth has put so down you know the
screen was so also showing some Aflac 50
000 figures
fortunately has not passed through that
and that is why whatever has happened in
China that can be treated as a temporary
phenomena okay okay that's that's that's
that's that's that's that's fairly
fairly point taken toxic think we're
running very short of time so I'll you
know I'll interrupt you there and I'll
quickly take one final response from Dr
Agarwal there also on the global aspect
and then Chinese angle also as Professor
Singh is pointing out of course we can't
Overlook that China is our immediate
neighbor and uh you know in terms of
population in terms of economic growth
in terms of demographic dividend China
was a few years ago where we we would be
in in next few years
well I think the Chinese with their
policy are actually facing a reverse
pyramid where you have they have the
older population which is bigger and the
younger population which is smaller
which is making it a difficult
sustainability issue but what India
adopted as a policy of true child one
family and a family planning was a much
better approach also what the India has
been doing is it has been trying to
provide uh for a certain set of
education and empowerment to women by
bringing their labor force participation
at a higher rate one important aspect is
the marriage build which the government
is planning to break about where the age
of the girl for the marriage is being
raised for 21 which automatically brings
a higher uh you know a higher level of
understanding for a girl before she is
into a matrimonial Alliance and Begins
the cycle of a reproduction okay another
important aspect is that there has been
a continuous education among the youth
and among the people with respect to
contraceptives and other aspects which
have definitely benefited people okay
education policy also has been strong
and stringent enough to bring about the
necessary awareness in this regard okay
I believe the direct difference
directive role which the government has
been playing is very essential in terms
of taking control of the population
get a venue for uh productive resources
like skill development or jobs or other
things okay there it is thank you so
much uh Dr yamini Agarwal Miss mutraja
and Dr Singh as well for sharing your
valuable time and inputs with us and our
viewers as well as our experts were
pointing out very clearly there are
various aspects to uh this changing
population Dynamics not only a wizard
with India but globally as well but when
we ah come down to Indian Dynamics then
there are various aspects which will
have to be looked into it does pose a
lot of challenges it do have uh you know
its benefits in terms of demographic
dividend which will continue to be with
us till 2055 but then those challenges
also will have to be tackled on the way
by focusing more on health education
Skilling our population and looking at
various other aspects also we'll keep a
close watch on all the developments here
and come back again with a different
topic till then keep watching Sunset
television thank you
foreign
[Music]
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