Can Iran strike continental U.S.? The secretive Khorramshahr-3, an intercontinental-range missile?

Summary

This video explores Iran's advanced missile technology, specifically its missile cities and Cororumshar missile family. It discusses how Iran’s tunnel-based launch complexes, designed to withstand nuclear strikes, enable the potential for a low-cost, intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) with conventional warheads. The Cororumshar missile, derived from Soviet R27 technology, has been progressively enhanced to reach global strike capabilities. With a focus on Iran’s missile developments, the video highlights the affordability and feasibility of modifying existing missiles for long-range strikes, emphasizing their role in Iran's nuclear deterrence strategy.

Takeaways

• 😀 Iran has developed nuclear-hardened tunnel complexes called 'missile cities' to ensure survivable second-strike capability during nuclear escalation scenarios.
• 😀 The true value of Iran's missile cities lies in the enormous resources and costs required to construct these advanced missile-launch tunnels, suggesting Iran's investment in a global strike capability.
• 😀 Iran has modified Soviet missile technology, specifically the R27 submarine-launched ballistic missile, to develop its own missile system, including the Cororum SH1 missile.
• 😀 Despite the R27's original range being 3,000 km, its technology is adaptable to intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), providing the foundation for Iran's missile development.
• 😀 By modifying the Cororum SH1 with a lightweight second stage (Parvin engine), Iran could create a low-cost intercontinental-range missile, capable of delivering a conventional warhead to the U.S. East Coast.
• 😀 Iran’s ability to manufacture low-cost Cororum SH1 missiles allows for large-scale production of conventional ICBMs, even without nuclear warheads.
• 😀 The cost of upgrading a Cororum SH2 to an ICBM variant is estimated to be less than 20% of its total production cost, making it economically viable for mass deployment.
• 😀 The Cororum SH4 KBAR, a two-stage missile, was designed with advanced features, including an attitude control system to counter missile defense interceptors, enhancing the precision of its re-entry vehicle.
• 😀 Iran's Cororum SH4 KBAR includes an advanced heat shield designed to withstand high-speed re-entry conditions, crucial for ICBM performance.
• 😀 The Cororum SH4’s unusually long interstage section suggests it could be adapted to house a second stage for an ICBM variant, with minor modifications.
• 😀 The portal launch missile cities, built to withstand nuclear attacks, are ideal for deploying Iran's potential ICBMs, particularly the theoretical Cororum SH3 ICBM, which could be launched securely from these hardened facilities.

Q & A

What are missile cities, and why are they strategically important for Iran?

Missile cities are nuclear-hardened, underground launch complexes built into hard rock. They provide Iran with survivable second-strike capabilities in the event of a nuclear escalation. These missile cities are designed to protect Iran’s missile arsenal and ensure that the country can launch a retaliatory strike even if its infrastructure is attacked.

Why has Iran limited its missile range to 2,000 km, and what does this mean for its missile capabilities?

Iran has voluntarily limited its missile range to 2,000 km, possibly as a political or strategic decision, aligning with regional considerations and international limitations. However, this restriction doesn’t mean Iran can't develop longer-range missiles, as seen with its advancements in missile technology like the Cororum SH1.

What role did the Soviet R27 missile play in the development of Iran's missile technology?

Iran derived its missile technology from the Soviet R27, a submarine-launched ballistic missile from the Cold War era. Iran succeeded in adapting this technology, resulting in the Cororum SH1 missile, which has a range of around 3,000 km. This technology is considered a stepping stone to developing longer-range, intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).

How does the Cororum SH1 missile differ from traditional ICBMs?

The Cororum SH1 is an intermediate-range missile with a range of approximately 3,000 km, which is far below the 10,000 km typical of ICBMs. However, its technology can be adapted, with modifications such as the addition of a second stage, to transform it into an ICBM capable of reaching intercontinental ranges.

What is the significance of the Parvin second stage engine for Iran's missile program?

The Parvin second stage engine significantly enhances the Cororum SH1 missile's capabilities. By integrating the Parvin engine, Iran could transform a 3,000 km range missile into a lightweight ICBM with a range of up to 11,000 km. This could enable Iran to target global adversaries, including the United States, while remaining within its existing missile infrastructure.

How does the Cororum SH1's modification for ICBM capability reduce costs for Iran?

The modification to turn the Cororum SH1 into an ICBM is highly cost-effective. The estimated cost increase for upgrading the missile to intercontinental range is below 20% of the original missile’s production cost. This makes it economically viable for Iran to produce and deploy such missiles in large numbers, potentially armed with conventional warheads.

What was the significance of the Cororum SH4 missile unveiled in 2023?

The Cororum SH4 represents a significant advancement in Iran's missile technology. It introduces a two-stage design with an attitude control system and a post-boost vehicle for missile defense evasion. This design suggests that Iran is progressing toward developing a true ICBM with advanced maneuverability and precision.

How does the Cororum SH4 missile's re-entry vehicle compare to traditional ICBMs?

The Cororum SH4 missile features a re-entry vehicle that is designed to survive the intense aerothermal stresses of high-speed re-entry, similar to traditional ICBMs. Its artificially steepened re-entry angle (around 45°) suggests that the existing heat shield could potentially withstand Mach 20 re-entry conditions, making it suitable for an ICBM.

Why is there a focus on Iran’s missile cities in this video?

Iran’s missile cities are critical because they provide the infrastructure to launch missiles, including potential ICBMs, from hardened, survivable positions. These cities are designed to withstand nuclear attacks, ensuring that Iran can maintain a second-strike capability in the event of full-scale nuclear conflict.

What is the potential role of the Cororum SH3 missile as speculated in the video?

The Cororum SH3 is a hypothetical modification of the Cororum SH2, designed as a light ICBM. The missile would likely share similar characteristics to the Cororum SH4 but with a focus on reducing cost and complexity. It could be deployed from Iran’s missile cities, utilizing the same infrastructure, and provide a cost-effective, conventionally armed ICBM capability.