The Need for Statistical Literacy | Jeffrey McLean | TEDxStLawrenceU

Summary

The speaker shares a personal journey of grappling with the fear of dying from cancer due to a new medication. Initially overwhelmed by online anecdotes linking the drug to cancer, they turn to medical journals and statistical analysis to rationalize risks. Comparing the 1% cancer risk from the medication to other life hazards, like car accidents, they find a perspective that helps balance fear with data, urging others to use statistical literacy to make informed decisions.

Takeaways

• 😨 The speaker was suddenly overcome with a fear of dying from cancer, despite no personal history with the disease.
• 💊 The fear was triggered by a medical condition and the recommendation of a new medication from the speaker's doctor.
• 📺 Initial research on the medication was influenced by TV commercials and online message boards, which were filled with negative stories.
• 🔍 The speaker used statistical literacy to rationalize the fear by seeking more data from medical journals.
• 📚 An older study from the Journal of the American Medical Association suggested a threefold increase in cancer risk for those taking the medication.
• 📘 A more recent, larger study in the Annals of Rheumatoid Disease found a 1% chance of developing cancer among over 20,000 participants on the medication.
• 🧐 The speaker pondered the likelihood of being part of the 1% and considered factors like age and duration of medication use.
• 📊 The study compared cancer rates of the medication group with a matched population and found no significant difference in cancer likelihood.
• 🚗 The speaker compared the risk of developing cancer from the medication to other life risks, such as dying in a car accident, to put the fear into perspective.
• 🤔 The realization that the risk of cancer from the medication was similar to everyday risks, like driving, helped the speaker to rationalize and accept the situation.
• 📈 The speaker encourages others to use statistical literacy to evaluate data and make informed decisions, especially when faced with strong emotions or anecdotal evidence.

Q & A

What was the initial fear experienced by the speaker?

The speaker initially experienced a fear of dying from cancer, despite not having had cancer before.

What medical condition was the speaker dealing with?

The specific medical condition is not mentioned in the script, but it was something that the current medication was not effectively treating.

What was the doctor's recommendation to address the ineffective medication?

The doctor recommended a new course of treatment and asked the speaker to think about it and get back to him.

What was the speaker's reaction to the potential side effects of the new medication seen in TV commercials?

The speaker found the long list of possible side effects, including cancer, to be terrifying and was concerned about taking a medication that could potentially cause cancer.

How did the speaker attempt to rationalize the fear using their background in statistics?

The speaker recognized that the online message boards might have extreme bias, with people sharing negative experiences more often than positive ones, and decided to look for more data to understand the situation better.

What was the finding of the study from the Journal of the American Medical Association mentioned in the script?

The study found that people taking the medication were three times more likely to develop forms of cancer.

What was the conclusion of the more recent study involving over twenty thousand participants?

The study found that less than three hundred participants developed forms of cancer, which translates to about one percent of the people taking the medication.

How did the speaker interpret the one percent risk of developing cancer from the medication?

The speaker realized that the one percent risk did not necessarily apply to everyone equally and that there might be a distribution of likelihood based on various factors.

What was the purpose of comparing the cancer risk to a matched population in the study?

The comparison was to determine if there was a significant difference in cancer rates between those taking the medication and a similar group not taking it, to understand the actual risk associated with the medication.

What did the speaker learn from the Insurance Information Institute about the risk of dying from various causes?

The speaker found that the odds of dying from cancer due to the medication were similar to the odds of dying in a car accident, which helped put the risk into perspective.

What lesson did the speaker want to impart to the audience regarding evaluating data and making decisions?

The speaker encouraged the audience to use statistical literacy to understand and evaluate data, especially when faced with strong emotions and anecdotal evidence, to make informed decisions.

What was the unintended consequence of the speaker's research on the medication and its risks?

The unintended consequence was the development of a fear of dying in a car accident, which was similar in odds to the risk of getting cancer from the medication.