AM Trades | Blending The Economic Calendar, Daily Chart, & Weekly Profiles

Summary

The video features AM, a futures trader specializing in ES and NQ, who explains his structured process for identifying high-probability, large-range trading days. He breaks down how he uses the economic calendar, daily chart phases of price delivery, and weekly range profiles to build a narrative before ever seeking entries. Through detailed examples from recent weeks, he shows how high-impact news, market manipulation, and phases like consolidation, retracement, and reversal shape his expectations. AM emphasizes patience, timing, and aligning lower-timeframe setups with higher-timeframe context, helping traders avoid noise, reduce stress, and operate with greater clarity and consistency.

Takeaways

• 😀 Trading success begins with a thorough understanding of the economic calendar, which helps identify potential high-impact news events and large-range days.
• 😀 The speaker focuses on trading Futures, particularly ES and NQ, with a preference for NQ due to its larger, more exaggerated price movements.
• 😀 The primary trading strategy involves seeking large range trending days, especially when daily candles indicate clear directional price movement with low resistance.
• 😀 Three main steps are used to establish a trading narrative: analyzing the economic calendar, studying the daily chart, and reviewing weekly range profiles.
• 😀 The economic calendar should be used to set expectations for large-range days but not to predict exact market highs or lows, as market reactions to news can vary.
• 😀 High-impact news events like CPI, FOMC press conferences, and Non-Farm Payroll have the potential to significantly impact the weekly range and should be carefully considered.
• 😀 Avoid trading on Mondays due to smaller average range sizes, and always frame expectations for the week based on the days following Monday.
• 😀 Price action should be analyzed on both the daily and hourly charts, with a focus on the phases of price delivery (expansion, retracement, reversal, or consolidation).
• 😀 Economic events that drive price manipulation (like news releases) can serve as key markers for entering trades, especially when confirming reversals or retracements.
• 😀 Traders should focus on the larger context of market movements (weekly profiles, phases of price delivery) and only trade when the setup aligns with these frameworks, rather than acting on every market move.

Q & A

What is Am's primary focus in his trading strategy?

Am's primary focus is trading large-range trending days, specifically targeting daily candles that show clear direction and low resistance. He aims to capture expansive price movements in the indices market, particularly with ES and NQ.

Why does Am avoid trading on Mondays?

Am avoids trading on Mondays because it historically has the smallest range, often less than 25% of the weekly average. Without any prior data to reference, trading on Monday is considered too speculative and often manipulative.

How does Am use the economic calendar in his strategy?

Am uses the economic calendar to frame his expectations for the week. He focuses on high-impact news events, such as CPI, FOMC press conferences, and Non-Farm Payroll, to determine which days are more likely to have larger price movements and establish the weekly narrative.

What is Am's stance on high-impact news events like CPI and FOMC?

Am considers high-impact news events like CPI and FOMC press conferences crucial for shaping the weekly range. He avoids trading before these events and focuses on how they influence price after the release. These events often provide opportunities for large moves in the market.

What does Am mean by 'phases of price delivery' on the daily chart?

Am describes three key phases of price delivery on the daily chart: expansion (strong directional move), consolidation (range-bound price action), and retracement/reversal (corrections or trend shifts). He looks for these phases to understand how the market is likely to behave and avoid trading in uncertain phases.

How does Am use the weekly range profile to frame his trading decisions?

Am analyzes the weekly range profile to identify external highs and lows. He looks for manipulations or false breaks around these levels to confirm the direction of the market. The weekly profile helps him determine when to enter trades, particularly for larger moves.

What are Am's criteria for taking trades based on the economic calendar?

Am takes trades based on the days with the most likely large range based on the economic calendar. He avoids trading days before high-impact news events and only looks for trades when price action aligns with the economic expectations, focusing on large-range days from Tuesday to Friday.

Why does Am emphasize understanding when to apply trading patterns like order blocks?

Am emphasizes the importance of timing when applying trading patterns, such as order blocks. It's not about knowing the pattern itself but understanding when the market is expanding or in a strong directional move, which makes these patterns more effective in predicting price action.

How does Am handle medium-impact news events like PCE and PPI?

Am is cautious about trading through medium-impact news events like PCE and PPI. While these events are not as significant as high-impact news, they can still influence intraday price movements. He avoids holding trades through these events to avoid unexpected volatility.

What is Am’s strategy for trading Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) week?

Am has a specific protocol for Non-Farm Payroll week. He avoids trading on Monday and Tuesday and focuses on trading post-NFP release on Friday. He is cautious with trades on Tuesday and Wednesday, only entering if there is a strong price signature, and typically looks for trades after the NFP release on Friday for large moves.