ICT Silver Bullet Strategy - No Daily Bias | With Backtest!

Summary

本视频介绍了一种名为“Silver Bullet”的交易策略，专注于上午10点至11点的交易时段。策略基于前一小时的最高点和最低点来设定交易范围，并在指定时间内寻找价格突破这些水平的入场机会。视频中通过实例和FX Replay软件进行了策略的演示和回测，展示了如何在特定时间窗口内捕捉交易机会，并在达到预定风险回报比后移动止损以锁定利润。回测结果显示，尽管交易次数不多，但策略在短期内实现了不错的收益。

Takeaways

• 🎯 视频主要讨论了Silver Bullet交易策略，专注于上午交易时段（AM session）。
• 📈 使用NQ作为交易标的，关注10到11点的时间窗口。
• 📊 交易框架基于前一小时的高点和低点，用于确定反转点。
• 🕒 10点整时，标记9点小时蜡烛图的高点和低点。
• 🔍 寻找价格突破这一范围的信号，以确定入场点。
• 🚫 只有在10到11点之间出现信号时，才会考虑交易。
• 📝 通过FX Replay进行回测，验证策略的有效性。
• 📉 在1分钟时间框架上观察价格行为，等待突破发生。
• 📈 如果价格突破高点，目标是前一小时的低点；反之亦然。
• 📊 回测结果显示，策略在7月份和8月份的前半段表现良好，总收益率为44.4%。
• 📋 交易平均持续时间为1小时29分钟，45天内进行了15笔交易。
• 🔄 策略的平均风险回报比约为5，意味着承担较高的风险。

Q & A

视频中提到的“Silver Bullet”交易策略是什么？

“Silver Bullet”是一种专注于特定交易时段（上午10点至11点）的交易策略，它使用前一个小时（9点）的高点和低点来构建交易框架，寻找价格突破这些水平的入场点。

在“Silver Bullet”策略中，为什么只选择在上午10点至11点之间进行交易？

这个时间窗口被认为具有特定的市场动态，可能提供更好的交易机会。策略的制定者选择在这个时间段内寻找入场点，以期获得更高的成功率。

在视频中，如何确定交易的入场点？

入场点的确定是基于价格是否能够突破前一个小时（9点）的高点或低点。如果价格在上午10点至11点之间突破这些水平，就可能成为入场点。

视频中提到的“displacement”是什么意思？

“Displacement”在这里指的是价格在特定方向上的移动，通常是在突破支撑或阻力位后的进一步价格移动。这种移动被视为确认突破的有效性。

在“Silver Bullet”策略中，如何设置止损和目标位？

止损通常设置在入场点的相反方向，例如，如果是基于高点入场，止损就设置在高点之上。目标位则是基于前一个小时的低点或高点，具体取决于价格突破的方向。

视频中提到的“3R”是什么意思？

“3R”指的是风险回报比，即交易者希望从交易中获得的盈利与潜在亏损的比例。在这个策略中，一旦达到3R的盈利，交易者会将止损移动到入场点，以确保至少不亏损。

视频中的交易者是如何进行回测的？

交易者使用FX Replay工具进行回测，这是一种模拟交易环境，允许交易者在历史数据上测试他们的交易策略，以评估策略的有效性。

视频中提到的“fair value gap”是什么？

“Fair value gap”指的是价格在特定时间点与预期价值之间的差距。在交易中，这可能被视为一个潜在的入场点，尤其是当价格从这个差距中恢复时。

视频中的交易者在回测中使用了哪些参数？

交易者在回测中使用了$100,000的账户余额，交易NASDAQ的CFD NAS 100，并且回测了7月份到视频制作当天的所有交易日。

视频中提到的“order block”是什么？

“Order block”指的是在价格图表上的一个区域，其中包含了大量的买卖订单。这个区域可能会对价格产生支撑或阻力作用，交易者会密切关注这些区域以寻找潜在的交易机会。

视频中的交易者在回测中的表现如何？

在45天的回测期间，交易者实现了44.4%的总收益，其中7月份为23.5%，8月份（截至视频制作时）为16.93%。平均交易时长为1小时29分钟，共进行了15笔交易。

Outlines

00:00

📈 交易策略介绍与模型框架

本段落介绍了一个名为Silver Bullet的交易策略，专注于美国股市的AM时段。策略的核心是使用前一个小时（9:00 AM）的高点和低点来构建交易区间，并在10:00 AM至11:00 AM之间寻找入场点。作者通过PDF文件解释模型和框架，然后在TradingView中展示实例，并使用FX Replay进行回测。

05:01

🔍 实例分析与交易时机

在这一段中，作者通过实际的图表示例，展示了如何在1分钟时间框架内识别交易信号。作者强调了在Silver Bullet窗口（10:00 AM至11:00 AM）内等待价格突破的重要性，并详细描述了如何根据价格行为设定止损和目标位。

10:02

📊 FX Replay回测与策略验证

作者使用FX Replay工具对Silver Bullet AM策略进行了回测，展示了如何在模拟账户中设置策略并选择交易标的。回测覆盖了整个七月，并在视频中展示了策略的表现，包括盈利率和交易时间。作者还提到了策略的平均风险回报比率，并强调了回测时间的限制。

15:06

📉 交易案例与风险管理

在这一段中，作者通过连续几天的交易案例，展示了如何根据价格行为和市场结构来决定是否进入交易。作者强调了在11:00 AM之前寻找交易机会的重要性，并详细描述了如何根据价格突破和市场结构来设定入场点和止损。

20:07

📈 策略表现与统计分析

作者在这段视频中总结了策略的整体表现，包括最佳交易日和平均交易时长。通过统计数据，作者展示了策略在七月和八月的表现，以及平均风险回报比率。同时，作者提醒观众，这些数据是基于有限的回测时间得出的，更深入的回测可能会提供更多信息。

25:08

🎥 视频总结与观众互动

在视频的最后，作者总结了回测过程，并邀请观众在评论区表达对PM时段交易策略的兴趣。作者还提供了FX Replay的折扣代码和免费试用链接，鼓励观众亲自体验。最后，作者以感谢观众观看并期待下次见面作为结尾。

Keywords

💡Silver Bullet

在视频中，'Silver Bullet'指的是一种交易策略，特指在特定时间段（上午10点至11点）内寻找交易机会。这个时间段被称为'Silver Bullet window'，交易者在这个时间窗口内寻找价格突破前一小时高点或低点的信号，以此来决定入场和目标点位。

💡NQ

NQ是纳斯达克100指数的缩写，它是一个股票指数，代表了纳斯达克交易所上市的100家非金融公司的表现。在视频中，交易者使用NQ作为交易标的，通过分析其价格走势来实施'Silver Bullet'策略。

💡框架 (Framework)

在交易策略中，框架指的是一套规则或模型，用于指导交易决策。在本视频中，框架包括使用前一小时的高点和低点来确定交易范围，并在特定时间内寻找价格突破的信号。

💡交易视图 (Trading View)

Trading View是一个流行的在线图表和分析平台，广泛用于金融市场的技术分析。在视频中，交易者使用Trading View来展示他们的交易策略和示例。

💡FX Replay

FX Replay是一个交易回放工具，允许用户在历史数据上测试和回放交易策略。在视频中，交易者使用FX Replay来模拟和验证他们的'Silver Bullet'策略。

💡风险管理 (Risk Management)

风险管理是交易中的一个重要组成部分，涉及识别、评估和控制潜在的金融风险。在视频中，交易者提到了风险管理的重要性，例如设置止损点和目标点位，以及在达到一定盈利后将止损点移动到盈亏平衡点。

💡订单块 (Order Block)

订单块是指在图表上价格在某个区域集中的区域，通常是由大量买卖订单在特定价格水平上形成的。在视频中，交易者使用订单块作为潜在的入场点，当价格突破这些区域时，可能会触发新的交易机会。

💡价格行为 (Price Action)

价格行为是指金融市场中价格变动的模式和趋势。在交易中，分析价格行为有助于预测未来的市场走势。视频中的交易者通过观察价格行为来确定交易时机和策略。

💡风险回报比 (Risk-Reward Ratio)

风险回报比是衡量交易潜在风险与潜在回报的指标。在视频中，交易者寻找具有高风险回报比的交易机会，这意味着他们希望从每笔交易中获得的潜在盈利远大于潜在的亏损。

💡回测 (Backtesting)

回测是指在历史数据上模拟交易策略的过程，以评估其在实际市场条件下的表现。在视频中，交易者通过回测来验证'Silver Bullet'策略的有效性。

Highlights

视频专注于交易中的Silver Bullet AM时段，仅在此时段内寻找交易机会。

使用NQ作为交易代码，重点分析10到11点AM的时间窗口。

交易框架基于前一个小时的高点和低点来设定。

在10点AM时，使用9点AM的小时蜡烛图的高低点来标记交易范围。

只在10到11点AM的窗口内寻找入场点。

通过1分钟图表观察价格行为，等待价格突破高低点。

在FX Replay中进行回测，创建Silver Bullet AM时段策略。

使用$100,000的账户余额进行回测，选择交易NASDAQ。

在回测中，如果价格达到3R（风险回报比），则将止损移动到盈亏平衡点。

在没有达到高低点的情况下，不会寻找交易机会。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前没有突破，会取消订单。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前突破，会尝试进入交易。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之后突破，不会进入交易。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前达到目标，会考虑移动止损。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前没有达到目标，会保持止损。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前达到3R，会移动止损到盈亏平衡点。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前没有达到3R，会保持止损。

在回测中，如果价格在11点AM之前达到目标，会考虑退出交易。

Transcripts

[Music]

how's it going everyone this video is

going to be about the Silver Bullet now

for this one we are going to be focusing

on the am session only and using NQ as

the ticker we're first going to hop into

a PDF go over the model and framework

before we hop into trading view for some

examples and then into FX replay I'm

going to be focusing on the 10 to 11:

a.m. time window or the am session

Silver Bullet window the only time I

will take entries is if it appears

between 10 and 11 a.m. now for the

framework if you have seen my intraday

bias video you know that I will use the

previous candles high and low to frame

reversals and in this framework I'm

going to use the previous hours high and

low and in this case that's the 9:00

a.m. hourly candle so the first thing I

do when I get to the charts is once

10:00 a.m. hits I'll use the previous

hours high and low or the 9:00 a.m.

hourly candle and I'll mark off the low

and the high of that after that I am

looking for price to take one side of

this range so in this case it takes the

9 A.M high and then I look for a entry

to Target the 900 a.m. low similarly if

we were to take the low of this candle

then I would look to be targeting the

high now these entries have to fall

within 10 to 11: a.m. window or I will

not be looking for them so let's take a

look at a few examples of that so here

we are on the hourly chart and the first

thing I do is Mark off the high and the

low of the 9:00 a.m. hourly candle so

here I have marked that off now I drop

down to the 1 minute time frame now for

Simplicity sake I'm going to remove

these cuz I already have tfo's indicator

setup to Mark out that range for me the

next thing I'm going to do is Mark out

the Silver Bullet window and that is

from 10 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. all I do is

sit back and wait for a stop raate to

occur below this low or above this high

so here we have a stop raid now I'm

looking for an entry model lower to

Target this low so let's see what

happens no displacement down yet

displacement back up so we're probably

going to reach for this

high now let's see what happens

here okay come back down no displacement

down and here what I see is this order

block here because it's supporting

price so we'll let one more candle play

out we have a care value Gap there as

well and midnight opening

price so what I'll do is I'll look to

take a short entry we'll use the

midnight and the consequent encroachment

there my stop on this high and where am

I targeting the other side of this

previous hours

candle

that is our first example so here we

have our next example and our 9:00

candle here so let's mark out the high

and the low and then drop down to the 1

minute chart once again I removed those

lines as I have the session indicator

set up to mark this out for me now the

next thing I'm going to do is Mark out

10:00 a.m. and 11:00 a.m. with a

vertical line as that is the Silver

Bullet window now let's go ahead and

watch price

action

you can see that price never swept the

low or the high of this range so this

would be a session where I would not be

looking to take a trade now that you

understand the model let's hop into FX

replay and back test this so here we are

on FX replay and this is what it would

look like if you just got your account

and so the first thing we're going to do

go over here create a strategy type in

Silver

Bullet am

session

and then we're going to create a session

here and we'll go for this example with

a $100,000 balance and we're going to be

trading

NASDAQ so we'll choose the cfd nas 100

and for this video we'll back test all

of July up to the current date of this

Friday we'll use our strategy Silver

Bullet am session and go ahead and start

that here go ahead and click this play

now button we have two window panes up

one with the 1 hour one with the 1

minute we're going to go ahead and

customize some settings here so we have

it set to next Silver Bullet session so

the start of the New York a.m. at 10: so

using that when we hit go to here we are

at 10:00 a.m. so now what we do is we

Mark out the high and low on the 1 hour

chart

here from here going to be watching the

one minute to see if we get a reversal

or take this high or take this low

letting this play ahead shallow sweep

let's see if we break this

slow we don't yet we sweep this low

likely to go a little

higher okay here's a displacement up

very shallow sweep so I want to see if

we close below here for those up close

candles we

don't there's another

sweep

[Music]

okay

there's prettyy aggressive movement

up now I want to see if we can close

below this low that made the new

high okay so we do so what I'm going to

Mark out is this breaker block

here and I will be looking to enter

short on this

breaker I stop on this high and then I

reach for this low Now what are my other

requirements it has has to be before

11:00

a.m. so click here hit place order

risking 1% cell

limit put my cell limit there and let's

see what

happens this one might miss us oh we got

tagged

in right before 11:00 a.m. so let's see

what happens and what I did in back

testing was once this hits 3r I will

move my stop to break

even so we just hit our 3r there so I'm

going to grab my stop loss put it at

break even and from here we'll go ahead

and go 5 minutes at a time and see how

this plays

out and there we go it took to the next

day to hit price Target however it did

offer 3 R pretty much directly after the

first move so let's hop into the next

day and go to our new Silver Bullet

session let's go ahead and Mark out our

hourly high and hourly low and now we

are going to wait and see what

happens so here we get a sweep below

this low let's see what

happens okay another sweep there so what

I'm looking at is this up Clos candle

before the sweep down we get a nice

close over that would be a breaker

so we get a close over here

so I would be looking for a long

here reach to the other side of this

hour candle my stop at the low and let's

see if this occurs before the 11: a.m.

Killzone

ends risk 1% let's see how it works

out so until it hits there not looking

for break

even

we hit our 3.56 R so let's go to next

Silver Bullet so here we have our 900

a.m. candle Mark that out go ahead and

Mark our 10 to 11 window and here we are

on the one minute switch back to one

minute pretty shallow sweep let's see if

we get any

displacement Okay small fair value Gap

there so we could take that not super

convincing to me I want to see a more

aggressive displacement down okay so

that's pretty

aggressive so using this up close candle

as an entry stop

here where am I targeting this

low so about 7.18

R place the

order so it hits 3 R so I'll move my

stop to break

even and there we go go to the next

silver bullets Mark out this high and

low price did not sweep either side

within our range so we'll go to the next

day marking out the 9:00 a.m. high or

low okay so we're sweeping this low so

ideally I'd want to see it reach Above

This

High okay no displacement

up okay

get a sweep break structor here so see

if we get an entry right

here I'm using that fair value

gab and leaves without us so we cancel

our order cuz it's outside the 11:00

a.m. window so here we are on the next

day Mark out the 9:00 a.m. candle I and

low

okay we do touch that high I I don't

really consider that a sweep just equal

highs okay there's a sweep

over

okay we're continuing higher up Clos

candle supporting

price okay now I'm going to be watching

this down close candle before the move

up let's see if this resists price

currently supporting

okay now we have a close below that so

what I'm going to be looking to do is

take this order

block inside this mitigation or breaker

as an entry I stop on the high where am

I

targeting the other side of this candle

here place the

order see how this works

out

okay three R move my stop to break

even and there we go so let's go to the

next New York a.m session going to Mark

out the 9:00 a.m. candles low and the

high and let's see what

happens and here we are at our 11 a.m.

no sweep so we'll go to the next day

going to Mark out our 9 am high and

low so we get a sweep see if we get any

structur pointing down we do

not see if these down Clos candles

support price higher they are

currently here we're

getting a little bit of a move

down so we'll go ahead and enter on this

fair value Gap

and it doesn't take us in so if we're

looking at it we would have taken our

entry on the breaker we would have been

tagged in however wanted the fair value

Gap entry so we didn't get it let's just

see how this one would have worked

out it does go and take that low so if

we would have had a different entry

would have ended up with

around 7.5r but that's it's okay let's

go to the next one so here we are in the

next day going to Mark out our low and

our high

here and there is our 11:00 a.m. nothing

happens so let's go to the next day

here's our 9:00 a.m. low and

high nothing happens once again let's go

to the next day low and the high marked

out so we take the low see if there's

any aggressive displacement back into

the range

there is so can use this fair value Gap

if we want see what kind of risk reward

that would give us stop on the low

targeting the other side

2.85 and there we

go let's go to the next day so here we

have our 9:00 a.m. candle let's mark out

the low and the high of this and see

what

happens

okay so we just took that low I'd want

to see a nice close over this

High okay we're getting that

so there value Gap within that targeting

this

high and let's see how it works

out and stops us out let's go to the

next day here we have our 9 a.m. low and

high so looks like we've already swept

it on this candle so let's see if we get

any entry model or displacement higher

here so we want to see some structure

moving up here

okay let's try try this fair value

Gap and there is another loss so let's

go to the next day so here we are on the

24th see what happens

here and there we hit our 11:00 a.m.

with no entry let's go to the next day

Mark out our low and our high here on

the

25th here we get a

sweep see if we get any aggressive

displacement down

here ideally would actually want to see

it below that

low

okay it's not super convincing sweep

there H I don't really like this price

action

there's no clear

displacement and then if I was to enter

in here we have equal highs and I want

my stop up there so I might just miss

this

one we're outside the 11: a.m. Zone

anyways if we would have taken this

little breaker entry what would it have

offered just about 2.5 R not a fan of

that price action or these sweeps in

here let's go to the next day oh here we

are on the

26th okay here is our sweep but where

are we at here's our 11 so does an entry

provide itself at 11 no going to the

next day here we are on the 27th let's

mark out our high and

low okay here's a sweep of this low

let's mark out our 11 let's see if we

get an entry model moving back higher we

want to see this met immediately with

aggressive displacement higher or if we

just get a retracement it's likely to go

lower it's not very aggressive back up

suppose we could try this flow

but not really a

fan I like to see a lower time frame

sweep so entry model below here not just

this so let's go to the next day Mark

out our 9:00 a.m. high and low let's see

what happens

here okay there there's a

sweep de you would want to be seeing you

know a break below

here

or okay so we have a fair value Gap in

this little breaker we'll try

it where am I targeting this

low and once I hit three R that's when I

want want to be break even so see how

this works

out we're in and stopped

out so looks like it just did I put my

stop on that

high yeah that looks to be unlucky so

here we are marking out the low and the

high of this

range and there we are at our 11 so our

end of our window so we'll go to the

next day so here we are on

Tuesday the first Mark out our lowend

our high see what

happens so here's our sweep this is

pretty choppy so we'll see what happens

pretty aggressive

down um should have guess we can take

this order block

entry might have missed it let's see if

it comes back up

clicked too

fast all right here we go pretty quick

one aggressive out aggressive in I

thought it was going to hit this order

block and then leave us but did take us

in so let's go to the next one so here's

our 9 a.m. high and low let's see what

happens

here okay so we have our sweep do we

have any structure moving

up nope not

yet I don't really like this because

aggressive displacement it's kind of a

consolidation or

retracement so not a fan of

that so we hit

our 11: a.m. let's go to the next

session so here we are on the third

we've already taken that previous high

so I want to see if we're going to reach

for this low here so ideally I'd want to

see a sweep of here I want to see price

close below

here

structure okay no closing below

there okay there's a close

below this one isn't as convincing to me

but we'll give it a

try not a fan of this generally once it

uh already reaches almost to that low

not really looking to enter that I

prefer the entry on the cell side of the

curve not when price is coming back so

now we have displacement down back up so

that's why I personally would cancel

this but let's see how how it would work

out and actually would have never filled

us before 11:00 a.m. anyways so here we

are on the fourth Mark out our low and

our high and let it play out so here we

have a sweep

down all right we'll give this a try

this breaker stop

there Target

here my 3r break even

point right there and let's give this a

go there's three R move my stop to break

even so let's go to the next am

session here we are on the

7th Mark out the low and the high and

see what

happens seems the 10 a.m. candle just

took this low so if we don't come back

into the range not a large possibility

of going for that high let's see what

happens um not sure what the candles are

doing

there so not going to do anything about

it CU I can't see this

structure but there's our 11:00 a.m.

we'll go to the next session here's our

9 a.m. high or low so there's a

sweep see if we get any displacement up

here okay I'm going to look to Long

right here I stop on this low Target the

other side of this

range and that's just at 3r so no reason

to project it

Fib so we're in there and stopped out so

let's go to the next session Mark out

the low and the

high let's see what happens

here okay here's a sweep down I'd want

to see displacement back

up no displacement back up this candle

is respecting this fair value

yet not very aggressive not a a fan of

that okay let's go to the next session

Mark out our high and our low and let's

see what happens we already took it on

the 10 a.m. candle see if we get any

displacement

down so lower time frame sweep or we're

going to get another one we'll see so I

want to see displacement down there's

displacement

down fa value

Gap

see what

happens and for this one going to

project my

FIB see where three are

is there's three R move my stop to break

even and there we

go let's go to the next session so here

we are on the 11th let's mark out our

highend our low and let's see what

happens

here okay out

there's a

sweep now we close below the body of

this so could take an entry on the

breaker here we'll give it a

go and comes back and stops us out so

here we are on the

14th Mark out our low and our high and

let's see what happens

here okay here's a

sweep see if we get any structure

down not super clean let's see close

below there

[Music]

no okay there's aggressive

down order

block this is what I'm not liking about

this can't sweep below this L I'm going

to give it one more

candle see if we sweep below that that

low yeah that was a good

decision I want to see this third candle

close below here before returning to

this water

block and yeah we just rip higher so

let's go to the next session so here we

are on the 15th let's mark out this High

and the low

here we already are below this low see

if we get any move back

up does not look like we're going to

come back up we'll see

consolidation let's see if we get met

with a reversal

here and there we go at our 11 I don't

personally like all this down here I

suppose I could have went for something

there not really my style so here we are

on the what day is this the

16th see what happens here okay there is

a

sweep now let's see if we get any

displacement lower here

okay that's still supporting price

higher supporting price higher see if we

get another sweep here nope there's

aggressive displacement through

there through that low and look to enter

here on the breaker or we can take the

fair value

Gap to this

low let's go ahead and enter

there

and there we

go let's go to the next day so here we

are on the 17th let's mark out the high

and the low here see what

happens so here we get a

sweep I'd want to see a nice close Above

This High

here okay no close above there didn't

like that

this should either support price lower

or be a turning

point looks like price is going to Trend

down

here there's a move

up not really a

fan and there is our 11: a.m. suppose we

could enter that but not really a fan of

that so here we have our high and our

low marked out let's see what happens

here there is a sweep it's very shallow

which not a huge fan of

that no real displacement

up no fair value gaps just

met okay here's a sweep again there's

displacement

now let's see what happens right

here not a fan of that risk her

reward but we'll keep it on the swing

low and see what

happens there we go let's go to the next

day and that was actually our last day

it looks like so let's go to uh let's go

take a look at these

analytics so here we are in the

analytics we can go through day by day

if we want to look at it and see what

our best days were it seems like

Wednesday was our best day however I'm

just focused on all you can see our

Equity curve pretty decent we're taking

higher risk to reward trades right there

average RR of about five so it makes

sense to see you know some larger spikes

and then slower points in this equity

curve now if we go take a look at some

more of these statistics you see our

average trade was an hour and 29 minutes

took 15 trades took it over 45 days so

looking at how we did performance by

month we only back tested July and half

of August so far so July we ended up

with 23.5% and August so far with

16.93% for a total of

44.4% now it's important to notice I

only tested this over 45 days and 15

trades if I was to do a deeper back test

I would be able to find out more

information and see how this is Over

time however I do hope you enjoyed this

video of back testing now if you want to

check out FX Replay for yourself there

will be a code and a link in the

description below that will get you 15%

off and a free 5-day trial I hope you

enjoyed this video if you did find it

helpful I am considering doing a PM

session bullet if you are interested in

that let me know in the comments below

other than that I hope you have a great

rest of your day and I'll see you guys

later