ICT Weekly Profile Explained | In Depth

Summary

This video dives into the concept of weekly market profiles, offering traders a framework to confidently analyze price movements throughout the week. It covers key profiles like Classic Expansion, Midweek Reversal, and Consolidation Reversal, explaining how to identify market trends based on Monday-to-Friday behavior. The speaker introduces various protocols, such as the Monday Protocol, to help traders filter out unfavorable conditions and refine their strategies. The video also emphasizes the importance of backtesting and using key patterns to align trades with the broader market bias for improved decision-making.

Takeaways

• 📅 Weekly profiles help traders build a confident directional bias by analyzing how price behaves from Monday through Friday.
• 📈 Classic Expansion weeks typically show Monday/Tuesday manipulation into a higher-timeframe PD array followed by a Tuesday–Thursday expansion in the direction of the weekly draw on liquidity and a Friday retracement back into the range.
• ⏱️ A valid weekly profile usually requires seeing a 1-hour Change in the State of Delivery (CHoSD) after engaging a higher-timeframe PD array.
• 🔍 Midweek Reversal profiles occur when Monday–Tuesday build consolidation or retracement, Wednesday manipulates Monday/Tuesday’s high or low, and Thursday–Friday expand in the opposite direction toward the draw on liquidity.
• 🔄 Consolidation Reversal profiles form when Monday–Wednesday create an internal range, Thursday makes the external manipulation of that range, and Friday delivers the reversal toward the higher-timeframe objective.
• 📉 Negative conditions arise when the market expands toward the draw without manipulation or without tapping a major PD array — these conditions void the profile and indicate no high-quality setup.
• 🚫 Monday trading requires caution: Monday often provides incomplete information for weekly profiles, so many setups are unreliable until Tuesday or Wednesday provide structure or manipulation.
• 📊 Recognizing lower timeframe SMT divergences (between assets like ES/NQ) is key for confirming manipulations within all profile types.
• 🧭 Weekly profiles improve trade selection by aligning intraday setups — such as internal models and imbalance retracements — with higher-timeframe directional expectations.
• 📉 TGIF (Thank God It’s Friday) setups occur after a classic expansion, where Friday often retraces inside the weekly expansion range following Thursday manipulation.
• 🔁 Understanding when to avoid trading — such as inside days, no manipulation, or straight-line expansion — helps prevent overtrading and false bias conviction.
• 🧪 Backtesting weekly profiles using 1-hour Monday–Friday segments builds conviction, improves bias accuracy, and prevents premature entries.

Q & A

What is the purpose of the weekly profile strategy in trading?

The weekly profile strategy helps traders build a confident bias for the market throughout the week. It involves using a framework based on price action patterns to identify market direction and determine the best time to enter trades. The goal is to avoid early trades and develop a clear view of how the market is likely to move based on weekly data.

What is a classic expansion profile and how does it function in trading?

A classic expansion profile describes the behavior of the market when it experiences a range-bound period at the start of the week, followed by a directional move either up or down as liquidity is drawn. For example, in a bearish scenario, the market might accumulate on Monday, then expand downwards towards liquidity on Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday, with a pullback on Friday.

What are the key indicators that confirm a classic expansion profile on a chart?

The key indicators for a classic expansion profile are a manipulation of the previous day's high or low, followed by an expansion move in the direction of the drawn liquidity. On a 1-hour time frame, a series of candles showing displacement and a fair value gap can signal that the market is moving according to a classic expansion pattern.

What role does Monday play in the weekly profile strategy?

Monday is typically seen as a day for accumulation, where the market builds structure without clear bias. Due to the lack of sufficient data, many traders prefer to avoid making trades on Mondays. The information gathered on Monday becomes more useful as the week progresses and price action develops further.

What is a midweek reversal, and how is it different from the classic expansion profile?

A midweek reversal occurs when the market shows an early directional move (either up or down) on Monday and Tuesday, followed by a reversal on Wednesday. This differs from the classic expansion profile, which typically involves a steady move in one direction. The reversal provides an opportunity to trade against the initial move as the market corrects midweek.

How does the protocol for identifying a midweek reversal work?

The protocol for a midweek reversal involves studying the Monday and Tuesday price action for consolidation or retracement. On Wednesday, traders look for a manipulation of the previous high or low, which signals a change in direction. If the market then shows signs of expansion in the opposite direction from Thursday to Friday, it confirms the midweek reversal.

What is the significance of Tuesday in determining the market’s weekly bias?

Tuesday plays a crucial role in confirming the market's direction for the week. If Tuesday shows signs of manipulation, such as taking out Monday’s high or low and engaging with a higher time frame price delivery array (PD), it helps solidify the market's bias. If this manipulation occurs, traders can expect an expansion move through the rest of the week.

What is a 'Judas swing' and when does it occur?

A 'Judas swing' refers to a deceptive price move on Monday, where the market briefly moves towards the drawn liquidity but doesn't actually reach it. This often results in a retracement back into the range. It signals that the market may not yet be ready to continue in the direction of the initial move, requiring more structure to develop before a more valid trading opportunity arises.

Why is Friday important in the context of the weekly profile strategy?

Friday is important because it often serves as the day when the market rebalances, moving back inside the range formed earlier in the week. After an expansion move during the week, traders expect to see a retracement or reversal back into the range on Friday, which can present trading opportunities. This behavior is a key part of the TGIF (Thank God It’s Friday) setup.

What are some negative conditions that traders should avoid in the weekly profile strategy?

Negative conditions occur when there is no manipulation or displacement in price, such as when Monday opens and the market moves straight toward the weekly drawn liquidity without any manipulation of previous highs or lows. This results in a low-quality trade setup, and traders should avoid taking trades under these conditions as they lack the necessary profile structure.