Profitable Prop Betting in 3 Easy Steps

Summary

In this video, Jack from Unabated reveals how to effectively bet on player props by avoiding common mistakes and leveraging simulations. Unlike traditional game betting, player props lack the sharp liquidity that shapes lines, making top-down betting less effective. Jack explains the importance of using median projections instead of mean projections, as well as the value of simulations to spot betting edges. He emphasizes careful stake sizing and shopping for the best lines to maximize profitability in the prop markets. For bettors looking to gain an edge, using trusted projections and simulators is key to success.

Takeaways

• 😀 Player prop bets are often beatable due to the simpler focus on individual player stats.
• 😀 The key mistake most bettors make is relying on the mean of player projections rather than the median.
• 😀 Top-down betting, which works for game sides and totals, is not effective for player prop bets due to low liquidity in prop markets.
• 😀 The right approach to beating player props is using projections, particularly median projections, rather than average projections.
• 😀 Projections should be used as a guide for betting, and you should apply them to the available prop bets with an eye on the best line.
• 😀 Projections are a more accurate measure for player props because sportsbooks typically use median projections, not mean values.
• 😀 FanDuel’s over/under on player stats like strikeouts can be evaluated using DFS projection sites like NumberFire for better insights.
• 😀 Mean projections, which are commonly used by DFS sites, often result in bettors betting more overs, but the median is a more accurate reflection of actual probabilities.
• 😀 Sportsbooks' lines are shaped by sharp liquidity, but player props don’t get the same attention, making them more beatable.
• 😀 The process for beating player props involves finding reliable projections, simulating player performance through a tool, and shopping for the best prices.
• 😀 It’s important to exercise caution when betting on props due to their unpredictable nature and sportsbooks’ tendency to restrict bettors who beat them consistently.

Q & A

What is the major mistake most bettors make when betting player props?

The major mistake is relying on mean projections (average) from DFS sites, which are not aligned with how sportsbooks set their player prop lines. This can lead to bettors betting the overs more often, which may not align with the true probability of winning.

Why doesn't top-down betting work well for player props?

Top-down betting relies on sharp books shaping lines in liquid markets, but player props generally lack sufficient liquidity. As a result, sportsbooks don't prioritize them, and the sharp books don't take as much action on these bets, making top-down betting less effective.

What is the preferred approach for beating player prop bets?

The preferred approach is using trustworthy player projections to guide your bets. These projections give a full picture of expected player performance, which can then be applied to the available prop bets in the market.

What is the difference between mean and median projections for player props?

The mean projection is the average value of a player's performance, whereas the median projection is the middle value, where 50% of results will be higher and 50% will be lower. Sportsbooks set lines based on the median, so betting the median is crucial to understanding the true probability of a bet.

Why does the mean projection lead to losing bets when applied to player props?

The mean is skewed in player prop markets because of the right-skewed distribution of certain stats like strikeouts, where extreme outcomes are more likely than extreme negatives. Betting on the mean can push bettors toward overs, which often results in lower win rates compared to betting the median.

How can simulations help in betting player props?

Simulations can model the full distribution of player performance, allowing you to identify edges based on the difference between the simulated median and the sportsbook's line. This can highlight where the value lies, such as in betting unders for certain players.

What is the role of DFS sites in sports betting for player props?

DFS sites help provide projections for player performance, which bettors can use as a foundation for their prop betting. These projections, while useful, should be carefully applied, as they often focus on mean projections, which differ from the median values sportsbooks use to set their lines.

How does the distribution of player performance affect prop betting strategies?

Player performance often follows a right-skewed distribution, meaning extreme positive outcomes (like a high number of strikeouts or points) are more common than extreme negative outcomes. This impacts how you should approach betting, making the median a better bet than the mean for identifying value.

What tools does Unabated offer to help betters with player props?

Unabated offers tools like a prop odd screen and player prop simulators that allow bettors to load projection sets, run simulations, and find edges in the market for a variety of player props across major sports leagues.

What should bettors consider when placing bets on player props?

Bettors should focus on finding reliable player projections, simulate the performance using tools like Unabated’s simulator, and always shop for the best line. It’s also important to be cautious with stake size, as sportsbooks may limit accounts that consistently beat the prop market.