Bolivian Election: Socialists Collapse After 20 Years in Power

Summary

Bolivia's dominant left-wing party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS), faced a stunning collapse in the 2025 general election, securing only 3% of the vote after nearly two decades in power. This downfall stems from internal infighting, corruption, and economic mismanagement, leading to skyrocketing inflation and a shrinking economy. The party’s fall from grace sets the stage for a historic runoff between two right-wing candidates, who promise fiscal reforms, foreign loans, and a renewed focus on Bolivia’s oil, gas, and lithium industries. This marks the end of MAS's dominance and the beginning of a new political era for Bolivia.

Takeaways

• 😀 Morales's party, the Movement for Socialism (MAS), which dominated Bolivia for nearly two decades, experienced a dramatic collapse in the 2025 elections, securing only 3% of the vote.
• 😀 MAS's downfall can be attributed to internal conflicts, corruption scandals, economic mismanagement, and a 40-year high in inflation.
• 😀 Evo Morales, Bolivia's longest-serving president, rose to prominence by defending indigenous rights and leading major protests against privatization and foreign influence.
• 😀 Morales led MAS to power in the 2000s and oversaw significant economic growth, largely driven by nationalizing Bolivia's natural gas sector and benefitting from a global commodities boom.
• 😀 Bolivia's economy under Morales was initially seen as a 'miracle,' with dramatic reductions in poverty and a growing middle class. However, this success was not sustainable in the long run.
• 😀 Morales's third term and attempts to extend his rule caused a split within Bolivia’s political landscape, leading to mass protests, accusations of electoral fraud, and Morales's eventual resignation in 2019.
• 😀 After Morales's ouster, Bolivia was left under a conservative interim government, which deepened ethnic and political divisions and resulted in violent clashes.
• 😀 MAS returned to power in 2020 under Luis Arce, but divisions within the party, especially between Arce's faction and Morales's loyalists, led to further instability.
• 😀 Bolivia's economic model began to deteriorate following the 2014 global drop in gas prices, resulting in reduced government revenue, fiscal deficits, and rising public frustration.
• 😀 In the 2025 election, MAS's infighting and the economic collapse contributed to the party’s poor performance, with two right-wing candidates now vying for power in a historic runoff, signaling the end of MAS's dominance in Bolivia.

Q & A

What led to the downfall of Bolivia's dominant left-wing party, MAS?

The downfall of MAS was primarily due to internal infighting, corruption scandals, and economic mismanagement. This led to high inflation, a 40-year economic crisis, and the collapse of Bolivia's once-praised economic model.

How did Evo Morales initially rise to prominence in Bolivia?

Evo Morales rose to prominence at the turn of the century as an indigenous leader defending cocoa farming against U.S.-backed eradication campaigns. He then led the Movement for Socialism (MAS), which gained national prominence through the Cochabamba water war and anti-privatization protests.

What were the key policies that Morales championed during his presidency?

Morales focused on gas nationalization, wealth redistribution, and a new constitution that empowered Bolivia's indigenous majority. He also oversaw economic reforms that turned Bolivia into one of South America's fastest-growing economies.

What was the significance of Morales's decision to run for a fourth term in 2019?

Morales's attempt to run for a fourth term was controversial, as it was seen by many as a power grab. Despite a 2016 referendum rejecting his bid, Bolivia's Constitutional Court allowed him to run again, which sparked accusations of undermining democracy.

How did the 2019 election crisis impact Bolivia politically?

The 2019 election crisis led to widespread protests and violence, with accusations of fraud. Morales resigned under pressure from the military and police, leaving Bolivia under an unelected interim government, which deepened ethnic and religious tensions.

What were the economic consequences of Bolivia's reliance on gas exports under Morales?

Bolivia's economy, initially buoyed by gas exports, suffered after the 2014 global gas price crash. Reduced export revenue, coupled with a lack of new gas projects, left the country financially strained, with growing deficits and a decrease in foreign exchange reserves.

Why did MAS experience significant divisions during the 2020-2024 period?

MAS experienced divisions due to internal factionalism, with the party splitting between the Arcistas, who supported President Luis Arce, and Morales's loyalists. Morales also faced legal charges, and the party struggled to manage the economic crisis and mounting public dissatisfaction.

How did public opinion shift as Bolivia faced economic and political turmoil in 2023 and 2024?

Public opinion turned against MAS as Bolivia faced economic hardship, including shortages of basic goods, high inflation, and growing debt. President Arce's government was seen as ineffective, and Morales’s calls for a boycott of the 2025 election further alienated voters.

What was the outcome of Bolivia's general election in June 2024?

In the June 2024 election, MAS candidates received only 3% of the vote, marking a dramatic loss of political support. This result was seen as a punishment for the party’s internal divisions and economic failures.

What is expected from Bolivia's political future after the 2024 election results?

Bolivia is entering uncharted political territory, with two right-wing candidates heading into an October runoff. These candidates promise fiscal restraint, foreign loans, and investment in Bolivia's oil, gas, and lithium sectors, signaling a potential shift toward free-market reforms.