3. Kapasitas Produksi

Summary

This video tutorial explains how to calculate production capacity for a new factory using data prediction methods. It covers two key techniques: linear interpolation and average growth per year, to predict production, consumption, export, and import data. The speaker emphasizes the importance of having accurate supporting data and using statistical methods to project future trends. The tutorial walks through a practical example of determining the production capacity of a sorbitol factory based on historical data from 2004-2008. The process also includes calculating the capacity opportunity and establishing the production capacity of the new factory in 2012.

Takeaways

• 😀 To determine production capacity, you need three key stages: obtaining supporting data, predicting data, and calculating capacity opportunity.
• 😀 Supporting data should include production, consumption, export, and import data for the past five years to predict future values.
• 😀 Linear interpolation is used to predict values when the relationship between year and production/consumption/export/import is linear, with an R-squared value above 0.9.
• 😀 If the R-squared value is less than 0.9, the average growth method is used to predict future data instead of linear interpolation.
• 😀 The linear interpolation method uses a linear equation (y = ax + b), where 'a' is the slope and 'b' is the intercept based on the graph.
• 😀 The average growth method calculates the annual growth rate based on the change in data from year to year, and uses this rate to predict future values.
• 😀 In the prediction stage, the data for the year of the factory establishment (e.g., 2012) is calculated using the average growth method, considering previous years' data.
• 😀 The production capacity opportunity is calculated by considering both production and import as inputs, and consumption and export as outputs in a steady-state system.
• 😀 When determining production capacity, consider whether a similar factory already exists in the country. If it does, the capacity is typically set at 60% of the calculated capacity opportunity.
• 😀 If no similar factory exists, the production capacity can be up to 1.5 times the calculated opportunity, depending on available capital.
• 😀 For example, in the case of a sorbitol factory, using data from 2004-2008, the predicted capacity is determined using the average growth method, and the final production capacity is based on whether a similar factory exists.

Q & A

What are the three main stages in determining production capacity for a factory?

The three main stages are: 1) Gathering supporting data, 2) Predicting production, consumption, export, and import data for the establishment year, and 3) Calculating the production capacity opportunity based on the predicted data.

What types of supporting data are needed to determine production capacity?

The supporting data needed includes production data, consumption data, export data, and import data for the last five years. This data will help predict the relevant values for the year the factory is being established.

What are the two methods used to predict the production, consumption, export, and import data?

The two methods are the Linear Interpolation method and the Average Growth per Year method.

What is the Linear Interpolation method, and when is it used?

The Linear Interpolation method uses a linear equation (y = ax + b) based on the relationship between years (x-axis) and quantities (y-axis). It is used when the R-squared value of the data is greater than 0.9, indicating that the data follows a near-linear trend.

What happens if the R-squared value is less than 0.9 in Linear Interpolation?

If the R-squared value is less than 0.9, the Linear Interpolation method is not applicable. In such cases, the Average Growth per Year method should be used instead.

How is the Average Growth per Year method applied?

The Average Growth per Year method calculates the average percentage growth of the data from year to year. This method uses the formula: 'last year's data * (1 + average growth rate)' to predict future values.

What does the 'R-squared' value indicate in the Linear Interpolation method?

The 'R-squared' value indicates the strength of the linear relationship between the years and the data values. A value greater than 0.9 means the data closely follows a linear pattern, making Linear Interpolation a reliable method.

What is meant by the 'production capacity opportunity'?

The production capacity opportunity is the amount of production that can be achieved based on the inputs (production and import) and outputs (consumption and export). It is calculated by balancing the inputs and outputs in a steady-state system.

How is the production capacity opportunity calculated?

The production capacity opportunity is calculated by using the equation: mbaru = MK + ME - MP + MI, where MK is consumption, ME is export, MP is production, and MI is import data. This provides an estimate of the capacity available based on predicted data.

How do you calculate the final production capacity of a factory?

The final production capacity is determined by multiplying the production capacity opportunity by a factor. If a similar factory exists in the country, it is typically 0.6 (60%). If no similar factory exists, the maximum capacity can be 1.5 times the capacity opportunity.