Saham Adalah Ilusi

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the illusionary nature of stocks, comparing them to currency and inflation. He highlights how stock prices often mirror the central bank's monetary policies and inflation, with examples like Indonesia and Zimbabwe. The speaker shares his personal asset allocation strategy, focusing heavily on cryptocurrency (Bitcoin and Ethereum), while maintaining some investments in stocks and cash. He advises against holding deposits due to inflation and discusses various investment strategies, including concentration over diversification. The speaker also shares his belief in effective altruism, planning to give back as much as possible before his death, while emphasizing the importance of personal growth and skill improvement.

Takeaways

• 😀 Stocks are often seen as an illusion due to their correlation with monetary inflation, where stock market growth may reflect currency devaluation rather than true value increase.
• 😀 The Indonesian stock index (IHSG) has seen growth, but when measured in US dollars or gold, its true value is much lower due to inflation and currency devaluation.
• 😀 Hyperinflated currencies, like Zimbabwe's, cause people to shift their assets into stocks as a hedge, which highlights how stocks often reflect the inflation rate of a country's currency.
• 😀 While stocks can be profitable, asset allocation is crucial. 90% of the speaker's assets are invested in cryptocurrency (Bitcoin and Ethereum), with the remaining 10% in cash and stocks.
• 😀 Trading can potentially lead to wealth, but it is challenging, especially with small capital. It requires emotion control, eliminating biases, and mastering analysis and strategies.
• 😀 It’s crucial to diversify your skills and income sources. Those in high-skilled professions, such as in consulting or business analysis, tend to amass wealth faster through incentives and career progression.
• 😀 The speaker advocates for concentration over diversification in investments, suggesting focusing on a few well-researched assets rather than spreading investments thinly.
• 😀 Effective altruism is the speaker’s guiding principle. He aims to accumulate wealth for the purpose of giving back and solving large-scale problems, rather than for personal gain.
• 😀 The real inflation rate in Indonesia is higher than officially reported, reaching around 13-15%. Depositing money in a bank is not advisable due to the erosion of value over time.
• 😀 The best investments, according to the speaker, are in science, Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency. These assets are believed to have the most growth potential over the next 5 to 10 years.

Q & A

What is the significance of the Indonesian Composite Stock Price Index (IHSG) in the context of stock market performance?

The IHSG is a basket index of stocks that represents the performance of all stocks in Indonesia. From 1990 to now, the index has increased around 30 times in terms of rupiah. However, when measured in US dollars, it shows a decrease of almost four times, highlighting the effects of currency depreciation and inflation.

Why is the stock market seen as a reflection of the monetary inflation rate?

The stock market often mirrors the rate at which central banks print money. In times of hyperinflation, such as in Zimbabwe or Indonesia, people tend to shift their money from depreciating currencies to stocks, which is why stocks can rise significantly during periods of inflation.

What is the speaker's view on stock market investments in the long term?

The speaker believes that stocks are largely an illusion created by monetary inflation. While some stocks may outperform the market in the next 5 to 10 years, they still reflect the broader monetary policy and inflationary pressures rather than intrinsic value.

What is the speaker's personal asset allocation strategy?

The speaker allocates 90% of their assets into cryptocurrencies, divided between Bitcoin and Ethereum, with the Ethereum being staked for interest. The remaining 10% is divided between cash (5%) and stocks (5%), with an emphasis on selecting specific stocks that may outperform the market in the long term.

What is the speaker's opinion on trading with small capital?

The speaker acknowledges that while it is possible to become wealthy from trading small capital, it is extremely difficult. Trading requires the ability to control emotions and overcome psychological biases, such as loss aversion and confirmation bias, which many people struggle with.

What does the speaker think about the future of fiat currencies?

The speaker does not believe fiat currencies will disappear in the next 10 years. While they acknowledge the potential for inflation and devaluation, they see fiat currencies remaining as legal tender in the foreseeable future, albeit with potentially higher inflation.

How does the speaker define the concept of 'effective altruism'?

Effective altruism is the principle of using wealth and resources to help as many people as possible. The speaker views money as a tool to help others and plans to distribute their wealth to causes they believe in, especially by using their assets to create broader, impactful solutions.

What does the speaker think about the risks of depositing money in banks?

The speaker advises against keeping large sums in bank deposits due to inflation eroding the value of money. Instead, they recommend investing in bonds or bond index funds, which generally offer higher returns, or exploring more risk-tolerant options like stock market investments.

Why does the speaker prefer Bitcoin over other cryptocurrencies?

The speaker sees Bitcoin as a 'middle' asset—considered the riskiest by traditional financial institutions, yet the safest in the crypto space. This unique position makes Bitcoin a preferred asset for long-term investment in the speaker's portfolio.

What are the challenges in creating a cryptocurrency exchange according to the speaker?

Creating a cryptocurrency exchange involves several challenges, including the need for a matching engine, liquidity providers, security measures, and regulatory compliance. The speaker mentions these technicalities and risks, including the difficulty of generating enough trading volume to make the exchange profitable.