NVDA Stock - NVIDIA Bulls Still In Control?

Summary

In this Nvidia daily update, the speaker provides a technical analysis of Nvidia’s stock performance, highlighting key levels to watch for bullish or bearish trends. Despite the stock moving slowly, it remains strong above certain support levels, with a target price in the mid-160s. The video covers potential risks, including volume concerns and possible bull traps. Options flow analysis is also discussed, though the speaker cautions against placing too much emphasis on contradictory signals. Overall, the stock is still considered bullish, with pullbacks viewed as buying opportunities, and the importance of tracking key support and resistance levels is emphasized.

Takeaways

• 😀 Nvidia is currently experiencing slow but steady movement, with a slight 1% increase on the day, outperforming the broader market.
• 😀 The stock is following a bullish trend as long as it stays above the 157-158 range, with 165 being a key target for potential upside.
• 😀 The technical analysis shows that the stock is still above the nine exponential moving average, with the MACD and stochastic indicators remaining bullish.
• 😀 If Nvidia reaches the mid-160s but experiences low volume, it could indicate a potential bull trap, which could lead to a rejection and a return to the 150-140 range.
• 😀 The analysis suggests Nvidia could face a significant pullback if it drops below the key support levels around 157 or 145, potentially heading toward 130-120 in a worst-case scenario.
• 😀 Despite the slower price movement, the stock remains solid overall, and the target remains at 165 unless a major downside break occurs.
• 😀 The daily chart reflects a healthy bounce from a support zone, with Nvidia’s price action in a strong position for continued upward movement if key levels hold.
• 😀 The market conditions are relatively flat, but Nvidia’s consistency is noteworthy compared to more volatile stocks like Tesla, which has been moving drastically in comparison.
• 😀 The weekly chart is slightly extended, indicating the potential for a pullback if the stock reaches 165, but any retracement should hold above the 145 range to maintain long-term bullish sentiment.
• 😀 The options flow analysis is mixed, with some large puts and calls in play, indicating uncertainty. However, this is not a major factor in the analysis, as the focus remains on the chart levels.

Q & A

What is the overall sentiment regarding Nvidia's stock based on the video?

The overall sentiment is bullish, as long as Nvidia maintains above key support levels, particularly between 157-158. The stock is showing a slow but steady upward movement, and the target is set at around the mid-160s (~165).

What is the significance of the 157-158 range for Nvidia's stock?

The 157-158 range is crucial as it acts as a strong support level. If Nvidia's price stays above this range, it is expected to continue moving upwards. A failure to hold above this range could lead to a deeper correction.

What is the target price for Nvidia's stock in the short term?

The short-term target for Nvidia's stock is around the mid-160s, with 165 being a key price point. If the stock reaches this level with low volume, there may be a risk of a bull trap.

What could indicate a potential bull trap for Nvidia's stock?

A bull trap could occur if Nvidia's price rises to the mid-160s, but the volume remains below average. This lack of volume would signal that the upward movement may not be sustainable, potentially leading to a rejection and price decline.

What are the possible downside levels for Nvidia if the stock breaks below the key support range?

If Nvidia breaks below the 157-158 range, the stock could potentially drop to the 153-155 range. A deeper correction could bring it closer to the mid-140s (145-148). In a worst-case scenario, the stock might fall to the 130-140 range.

What is the role of the 9 exponential moving average (EMA) in the analysis?

The 9 EMA is being used as a dynamic support level. As long as the price remains above this moving average, the bullish outlook for the stock remains intact. The 9 EMA is expected to align closely with the 157 level soon.

What is the current market trend for Nvidia's stock, based on the chart analysis?

Nvidia's stock is currently moving slowly but remains bullish overall. The MACD and stochastic indicators are still in positive territory, indicating that the stock's momentum is intact for the time being.

How does the options flow impact the analysis of Nvidia's stock?

The options flow is mixed, with large contrasting orders. A put order at the 160 strike for July 18th and a call order at the same strike for a month out create some uncertainty. This suggests that market participants are hedging, but it is not conclusive enough to predict a specific outcome.

What does the video suggest about Nvidia's stock if it reaches 165?

If Nvidia reaches 165, the analysis suggests that there may be a rejection if the volume remains low. This could lead to a pullback toward the lower end of the current channel, potentially bringing the stock back to the 145-148 range.

What does the video imply about the risk of a deeper correction for Nvidia?

A deeper correction could occur if Nvidia falls below 140-142. In that case, the stock might experience a more significant decline, with a base case scenario of returning to around 130-140. This would be a sign that the stock is losing its bullish momentum.