A Few Minutes with Peter Grandich and Special Guest, Oil & Natural Gas Analyst, Phil Flynn
Summary
TLDRIn this insightful discussion, Phil Flynn, an oil and gas expert, shares his views on the current and future state of oil prices, dismissing the possibility of a drastic drop to $25 a barrel. He critiques the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy, advocating for a more balanced view that includes oil and gas in the energy transition. Flynn also addresses the potential impact of geopolitical shifts, such as the BRICS formation, on the global oil market and emphasizes the importance of the Petrodollar system to the US economy.
Takeaways
- 📉 The speaker believes that $25 per barrel oil prices are extremely unlikely and hasn't been seen since oil prices went below zero, which they don't expect to see again soon.
- 💡 There is a possibility of oil prices going down to $25 per barrel due to extreme geopolitical risks, such as Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf of Mexico.
- 🔝 The speaker is more inclined to see oil prices rise towards $80-88 in the short term, and even more likely to reach $100 before dropping to $25.
- 🚗 The electric vehicle (EV) market is not as promising as previously thought, with a reported 49% of EV owners expressing a desire to switch back to internal combustion engines due to various concerns.
- 🌐 A report suggests that by 2030, there could be an ample supply of oil, potentially leading to lower prices, but the speaker seems skeptical about this prediction.
- 🌍 The US was once the biggest oil producer in the world, and high prices have led to increased production, challenging the 'peak oil' theory.
- 🤔 The Biden Administration's approach to energy is criticized as inconsistent and potentially harmful to the US economy, with billions being spent on uncreated green energy jobs.
- 💰 The speaker suggests that a Trump victory could be beneficial for the oil and gas industry, as his previous policies were seen as bullish for energy.
- 🌿 Dismissing fossil fuels entirely could lead to increased inflation and a less happy population, emphasizing the need for a balanced energy transition.
- 🔄 The Petro-dollar system, established post-World War II, has been crucial for the US economy, and there is a need to maintain good relations with oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia.
- ♨️ Natural gas prices have been low due to warmer winters and overproduction, but are now recovering as demand increases, especially with the rise in liquefied gas exports.
Q & A
What is the general disclaimer given by the speaker at the beginning of the transcript?
-The speaker reminds the audience that the content is not investment advice and advises them to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Who does the speaker consider an expert on oil and gas?
-The speaker considers Phil Flynn as the expert on oil and gas, and feels blessed to have him on the show.
What is the speaker's opinion on the $25 per barrel oil price prediction?
-The speaker thinks that a $25 per barrel oil price is extremely unlikely and hasn't been seen since oil prices went below zero, which he doesn't expect to happen again.
What geopolitical risks are mentioned that could potentially crash the economy and affect oil prices?
-The speaker mentions the presence of Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf of Mexico as a geopolitical risk factor that could potentially drive oil prices down to $25 a barrel.
What is Phil Flynn's short-term prediction for oil prices?
-Phil Flynn predicts that it is more likely to see oil prices go up towards $80-$88 in the short term, and believes it's more likely to see $100 before seeing $25.
What does the speaker think about the electric vehicle (EV) market and its impact on oil demand?
-The speaker believes that the EV market is not as promising as it was hyped to be, with people experiencing range anxiety and high costs of insurance and repair, which may lead to a decrease in demand for EVs.
What percentage of electric vehicle owners reported buyer's remorse according to the study mentioned by Phil Flynn?
-According to the study mentioned by Phil Flynn, 49% of the respondents who bought electric vehicles reported buyer's remorse.
How does the speaker view the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy?
-The speaker criticizes the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy as a mess, with unclear stances on oil production and a perceived waste of money on uncreated green energy jobs.
What is the potential impact of a Trump victory on the oil and gas industry according to the speaker?
-The speaker believes that a Trump victory could be revolutionary for the oil and gas industry, as Trump's previous policies were seen as bullish for energy and encouraged the industry to thrive.
What does the speaker suggest about the importance of the US oil and gas industry for the energy transition?
-The speaker suggests that without the US oil and gas industry, the energy transition cannot happen, emphasizing the need for a reasonable approach to the transition and the importance of all forms of energy.
What is the significance of the Petrodollar system mentioned in the transcript?
-The Petrodollar system is significant because it has helped the US economy become one of the strongest in the world by allowing trade of oil in US dollars, which has been a key factor in maintaining the dollar's global dominance.
What is the speaker's view on the potential impact of the BRICS nations on the oil market?
-The speaker believes that the BRICS nations, with their large populations and growing economies, could have a significant impact on the oil market, and that the oil industry needs to consider this when planning for the future.
What is the current situation of natural gas prices according to Phil Flynn?
-Phil Flynn explains that natural gas prices are recovering from a low point due to warmer than normal winters and an oversupply situation. He mentions that producers have cut back, demand is coming back, and exports are increasing, leading to a rise in prices.
Outlines
📉 Oil Price Predictions Amid Market Uncertainty
In this segment, the speaker, Peter, engages in a discussion with Phil Flynn about the volatility of oil prices. Phil, a respected voice in the oil and gas sector, dismisses the possibility of oil prices plummeting to $25 a barrel, a view held by some pessimists. He suggests that while extreme geopolitical events could theoretically drive prices down, a more likely short-term scenario is a rise towards $80-$88 a barrel. The conversation also touches on the oversupply concerns by 2030, the shift in public opinion regarding electric vehicles (EVs), and the potential impact of government policies on the oil industry. Phil emphasizes the importance of the U.S. as a major oil producer and the fallacy of expecting an imminent demise of fossil fuels.
💡 Government Missteps in Energy Policy and Economic Implications
The second paragraph delves into the U.S. government's approach to energy, with Phil Flynn criticizing the Biden Administration's handling of the energy sector. He points out the administration's inconsistent stance on oil production and the impracticality of their green energy initiatives, such as the high cost of creating jobs in the sector. Phil argues that the government's mismanagement of funds and lack of strategic planning could be detrimental to the U.S. economy. He contrasts this with the Trump Administration's more industry-friendly approach, suggesting it would be more beneficial for the oil and gas industry. The importance of the U.S. oil and gas industry in facilitating a successful energy transition is also highlighted.
🌍 Geopolitical Shifts and the Future of the Petrodollar
In the final paragraph, the discussion shifts to the geopolitical landscape and its influence on oil prices. Phil Flynn and Peter explore the potential impact of the BRICS formation on the global economy and trade, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. maintaining a strong position in the energy sector. They discuss the significance of the petrodollar system, established post-World War II, which has contributed to the strength of the U.S. economy. Phil warns of the dangers of taking this system for granted and the need for the U.S. to be proactive in the face of emerging global competitors, such as India, to ensure continued economic dominance.
Mindmap
Keywords
💡Investment Advice
💡Oil Prices
💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)
💡Geopolitical Risk Factors
💡Energy Transition
💡Natural Gas
💡Petro Dollar
💡Energy Policy
💡BRICS Formation
💡Energy Sector Investment
Highlights
The speaker emphasizes that the discussion is not investment advice and recommends consulting a licensed financial advisor.
Phil Flynn is recognized as a reliable voice on oil and gas topics, with a balanced view on oil price predictions.
The speaker dismisses the possibility of oil dropping to $25 a barrel, considering it an unlikely scenario.
Geopolitical risks such as Russian submarines in the Gulf of Mexico are mentioned as potential factors that could crash the economy and affect oil prices.
A short-term prediction suggests oil prices are more likely to rise towards $80-88 than to drop to $25.
A report about ample oil supply by 2030 is discussed, questioning the validity of such predictions.
The electric vehicle (EV) market is criticized for its unrealistic expectations and current lack of consumer interest.
A study is cited where 49% of EV owners are considering a switch back to internal combustion engines due to various concerns.
The Biden Administration's energy policies are criticized for being misguided and potentially detrimental to the US economy.
The importance of the US oil and gas industry in facilitating a successful energy transition is highlighted.
A comparison is made between the potential impacts of a Biden versus Trump presidency on oil and gas prices and policies.
The Petro dollar system and its significance to the US economy are discussed, with concerns about potential changes.
The role of Saudi Arabia in global oil markets and the importance of maintaining good relations for trade and security are emphasized.
The potential impact of the BRICS formation on the world economy and oil trade is considered, with a call for the oil industry to adapt.
Natural gas prices and market dynamics are discussed, with a focus on recent changes and future predictions.
The speaker expresses concern about the US taking its energy leadership for granted and the need for vigilance against emerging competitors.
A closing note of appreciation for Phil Flynn's insights and contributions to the discussion.
Transcripts
hello everyone a few minutes with Peter
granch I always remind you this is not
to be considered investment advice
always speak to a license financial
advisor before making any investment
decision read out discloses well you
know every time I turn on one of those
stupid TV programs not where this man
fears but the other ones one guy says
$25 for oil one guy says $125 for oil
man when I think of oil and gas I only
think of one man Phil Flynn and I am
always so blessed that you are here I'm
blessed to be with you Peter thanks for
having me again so Phil somewhere in the
middle where where's oil going somewhere
in the middle is always a safe bet right
Stuck In The Middle With You right um I
want to party with the guy is saying $25
a barrel I mean this guy needs to be
cheered up right I mean if he's talking
$25 a barrel he must be like one of
these dun gloomer like the world is g to
come to an end um maybe he's right you
never know maybe he knows something
maybe he could be a profet but I I think
$25 a barrel is extremely unlikely I
don't think we've seen that level uh you
know since oil went below zero and I
don't expect to see it again anytime
soon but you know listen to get to $25 a
barrel you know there are things out
there that could crash the economy
geopolitical risk factors are
unbelievable I mean we have freaking
Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf
of Mexico and warships so I guess the
end of the world scenario could drive us
down to that point more than likely
though we're probably headed back up
towards 8088 in the short term I I think
a lot more likely to see a 100 before we
see 25 that's that's my call anyway oh
Phil there was a report out forgive me
for not remembering exactly you it's one
of those World commissions or something
about by
2030 they could be such ample Supply
that price will won't be that high right
is that buying all into this what I
think is kind of blowing up Phil is this
just a couple years ago EV was going to
be everything and there wasn't going to
be a drop of oil needed anywhere I think
that's right I think the EV story is
blowing up in our faces we can see by
the dramatic drops and lack of interest
of purchasing of these cars but what
what do you think your best guess is
getting past the short term what do you
see for oil in general not so much price
but versus demand heat oil heat demand
you know Peter I mean you know we I've
lived long enough to see both ends of
the spectrum right I remember back in
the early 90s you know late 90s 2000 the
world is running out of oil we're never
going to be able to keep up we're never
going to be able to produce enough we
have to look for alternative energies
because we're running out we're going to
be forced to other forms of energy well
wait a second what happened high prices
cure high prices all of a sudden we
became the biggest oil producer in the
world now they're trying to to figure
out peak oil a different way it's like
oh now you can make it we don't want you
to make it now we want you to buy
electric cars you're absolutely right
the electric car fantasy is just that a
fantasy and listen I love electric cars
I think they're part of the equation
it's they're fun but I just saw a study
I think it came out just today a report
that actually pulled the people that
actually bought electric vehicles and
49% of the respondents to this poll said
they're going back to an internal
combustion engine they don't like to
have to you know plan on a long trip
they don't like the lack of charging
station range
anxiety um and the high cost of
insurance and and repair so a lot of
them have buyers remorse and and that's
that's another reason one of many why
this
electrification uh dream of the Biden
Administration is never going to happen
so I got two key questions because I
could talk to you all day and I think
everybody that would listen would learn
valuable information that's our good job
all serious for one minute we joke
around you're one of the best that
that's let me just put it that way and
I've been at this 40 years and I've seen
a lot of guys come and go but there's
two topics I think that are important
for people and I'd love to know your
opinion obviously I think this question
is loaded but I'm G to ask it anyway
what's the difference of another four
years of Biden or whoever somebody like
Biden versus Trump winning in terms of
oil and gas prices I I think it could be
revolutionary um because there's
absolutely no doubt um the Biden
Administration is a mess right they
don't know if they're for oil or against
oil you know they say that the US oil
companies are war profiteers and you
know but then it's like well we still
need you guys to produce oil and it's
like you know you can't have it both
ways right um it's a disaster you know I
just saw a press release that came out
from the Biden Administration and saying
you we spend billions of on green energy
jobs that have yet to be created but
they're going to be created and we're
going to make sure that when these jobs
theoretical jobs are going to be created
that we're spending billions of dollars
per job on um that they're going to be
paid at least a a a like a union wage
and we're going to build an apprentice
program so people that are making Union
wait a second don't you have to build a
company before you start figuring out
how much you're going to be paying
people I mean this is madness you know
we have situation Pete bovich you know
acknowledged that you know they're
spending billions of dollars on electric
car chargers billions I forget the exact
number they've built like seven maybe
eight and and and so this is a perfect
example of why the government needs to
get out of the energy business because
they don't know what they're doing they
don't know how to implement these plans
they don't know how to spend the money
yes you can encourage you know the
private sector with tax rates and stuff
but throwing the billions of doar at you
know five million different places and
hoping that something sticks isn't a
policy it's a waste of money and it's a
danger I think for the US economy
because we're GNA fall further behind
with all this madness so pop be to that
I would say then that a trump Victory
knowing what he did in his four years
which was kind of very bullish I thought
overall for energy would be much better
for the oil and gas industry I think it
is um and it's a double-edged sword
right because uh we saw president Trump
say drill baby drill and they did and
then they created a clad prices went
back down so they have to get smart but
you're absolutely right let the you know
the US Energy industry do what they do
best they do it better than anybody in
the world cleaner more efficiently right
but you know be reasonable about this
energy transition and I'll tell you this
Peter you know this as well as I do
without the US oil and gas industry you
can kiss your energy transition goodbye
because it can't happen it can't happen
and to not tap into the knowledge of the
people in that industry and just deride
them and say oh they're old you know
we're getting into this new green energy
stuff is a major mistake because you're
going to need all forms of energy over
the next 30 years and if if you dismiss
fossil fuels the only thing you're going
to do is raise inflation make people
poor and less happy because you know
let's face it uh you know better economy
people are generally happier hey Phil my
last one and I always thank you for the
time you give me I'm a big believer that
wall Street's blowing at Big Time not
understanding what the brick formations
is going to do to the world economy
world trade and things of that nature
having said all that if it continues to
move that way especially as we see Saudi
Arabia leaning towards joining and
others that has to play a role oil
because if there's this formation now
that they're talking of just the
countries that are supposedly going to
join up as of this fall that's where the
biggest part of the world's population
is going to be and what they do
regarding oil is going to play important
role so I think sooner or later even the
oil industry has to look at the bricks
and see how that's going to play out
versus you know always just counting on
the United States to always be number
one so to speak no you're absolutely
right and and listen one of the the
smartest things this country ever did
was make a deal with Saudi Arabia after
World War II guarantee them security you
know and that we could trade their oil
in in dollars right and the Petro dollar
helped the US economy would be one of
the most strongest Dynamic economies on
the face of the Earth um and too many
people take that for granted it's like
oh we're the biggest you're the dollar
you know we can use that to push our
will around the world we don't have to
negotiate you know we can make Saudi
Arabia a a a pariah state or we can do
this and it's like wait a second guys
you're feeding into the competition and
we're going to have competition Pete you
know that right we've been sitting on
our Laurels too long you know taking too
many things for granted we're spending
way too much money you know we think
it's never going to end but then it does
you know and now you're gonna have
competition from countries that may not
like us and they have huge growing
economies you've got India which could
be the fastest growing
you know economy in the world that could
overtake China in a couple years and
they definitely have the potential at
some point to take us over if we don't
wake up and smell the coffee right you
know I mean we were in a situation where
we had such a big lead over our
competitors that nobody could ever catch
us but it's like you know the tortoise
in the hair you know if you just assume
that that's the way it's always going to
be eventually that tortoise is going to
catch up and these tortoises are moving
and we're falling back what's wrong with
this picture here Pete yeah and we don't
know yet if the petrol dollar was
officially over there's rumors going
around that Biden claim got something
where we're gonna do a deal again in
exchange for them recognizing Israel and
all I think that's a lot of BS I agree I
agree I think it's a lot of BS and quite
frankly I don't think any decision is
coming from Biden anyway now anything
that's coming is from somebody else
standing behind him behind those
curtains I don't think he's capable of
having these type of decisions going
forward so Phil one last quick question
we always oil it's not the season for it
but I have to ask you because somebody
will write to me how come you any next
bill about natural gas what does say
about natural gas at the moment it's
back from the dad right I think last
time we spoke wasn't natural gas like
A180 right but you know this is a
classic case of low prices curing low
prices you know we had this incredible
glood warmer than normal
Winters um and and the concerns were you
know the producers kept producing and it
was like you better stop well they
finally got the message producers
started to cut back demand started to
come back LG exports are going up we we
are the cheapest natural gas prices
price in the planet everybody wants our
natural gas why we're slowing that
process down I'll never know Peter it
drives me that's but but um yeah but now
you know low prices cure low prices cut
back on production all of a sudden I
guess it gets hot in the summer who knew
people turn on air conditioners and with
this heat wave it's driving demand for
electricity powered by natural gas
cleaner burning natural gas by the way
so we're back on the way up okay Bill
Flynn can I say I love you buddy love
you man God bless you my friend all
blessings to you sir
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