A Few Minutes with Peter Grandich and Special Guest, Oil & Natural Gas Analyst, Phil Flynn

Summary

In this insightful discussion, Phil Flynn, an oil and gas expert, shares his views on the current and future state of oil prices, dismissing the possibility of a drastic drop to $25 a barrel. He critiques the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy, advocating for a more balanced view that includes oil and gas in the energy transition. Flynn also addresses the potential impact of geopolitical shifts, such as the BRICS formation, on the global oil market and emphasizes the importance of the Petrodollar system to the US economy.

Takeaways

• 📉 The speaker believes that $25 per barrel oil prices are extremely unlikely and hasn't been seen since oil prices went below zero, which they don't expect to see again soon.
• 💡 There is a possibility of oil prices going down to $25 per barrel due to extreme geopolitical risks, such as Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf of Mexico.
• 🔝 The speaker is more inclined to see oil prices rise towards $80-88 in the short term, and even more likely to reach $100 before dropping to $25.
• 🚗 The electric vehicle (EV) market is not as promising as previously thought, with a reported 49% of EV owners expressing a desire to switch back to internal combustion engines due to various concerns.
• 🌐 A report suggests that by 2030, there could be an ample supply of oil, potentially leading to lower prices, but the speaker seems skeptical about this prediction.
• 🌍 The US was once the biggest oil producer in the world, and high prices have led to increased production, challenging the 'peak oil' theory.
• 🤔 The Biden Administration's approach to energy is criticized as inconsistent and potentially harmful to the US economy, with billions being spent on uncreated green energy jobs.
• 💰 The speaker suggests that a Trump victory could be beneficial for the oil and gas industry, as his previous policies were seen as bullish for energy.
• 🌿 Dismissing fossil fuels entirely could lead to increased inflation and a less happy population, emphasizing the need for a balanced energy transition.
• 🔄 The Petro-dollar system, established post-World War II, has been crucial for the US economy, and there is a need to maintain good relations with oil-producing countries like Saudi Arabia.
• ♨️ Natural gas prices have been low due to warmer winters and overproduction, but are now recovering as demand increases, especially with the rise in liquefied gas exports.

Q & A

What is the general disclaimer given by the speaker at the beginning of the transcript?

The speaker reminds the audience that the content is not investment advice and advises them to consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Who does the speaker consider an expert on oil and gas?

The speaker considers Phil Flynn as the expert on oil and gas, and feels blessed to have him on the show.

What is the speaker's opinion on the $25 per barrel oil price prediction?

The speaker thinks that a $25 per barrel oil price is extremely unlikely and hasn't been seen since oil prices went below zero, which he doesn't expect to happen again.

What geopolitical risks are mentioned that could potentially crash the economy and affect oil prices?

The speaker mentions the presence of Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf of Mexico as a geopolitical risk factor that could potentially drive oil prices down to $25 a barrel.

What is Phil Flynn's short-term prediction for oil prices?

Phil Flynn predicts that it is more likely to see oil prices go up towards $80-$88 in the short term, and believes it's more likely to see $100 before seeing $25.

What does the speaker think about the electric vehicle (EV) market and its impact on oil demand?

The speaker believes that the EV market is not as promising as it was hyped to be, with people experiencing range anxiety and high costs of insurance and repair, which may lead to a decrease in demand for EVs.

What percentage of electric vehicle owners reported buyer's remorse according to the study mentioned by Phil Flynn?

According to the study mentioned by Phil Flynn, 49% of the respondents who bought electric vehicles reported buyer's remorse.

How does the speaker view the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy?

The speaker criticizes the Biden Administration's approach to energy policy as a mess, with unclear stances on oil production and a perceived waste of money on uncreated green energy jobs.

What is the potential impact of a Trump victory on the oil and gas industry according to the speaker?

The speaker believes that a Trump victory could be revolutionary for the oil and gas industry, as Trump's previous policies were seen as bullish for energy and encouraged the industry to thrive.

What does the speaker suggest about the importance of the US oil and gas industry for the energy transition?

The speaker suggests that without the US oil and gas industry, the energy transition cannot happen, emphasizing the need for a reasonable approach to the transition and the importance of all forms of energy.

What is the significance of the Petrodollar system mentioned in the transcript?

The Petrodollar system is significant because it has helped the US economy become one of the strongest in the world by allowing trade of oil in US dollars, which has been a key factor in maintaining the dollar's global dominance.

What is the speaker's view on the potential impact of the BRICS nations on the oil market?

The speaker believes that the BRICS nations, with their large populations and growing economies, could have a significant impact on the oil market, and that the oil industry needs to consider this when planning for the future.

What is the current situation of natural gas prices according to Phil Flynn?

Phil Flynn explains that natural gas prices are recovering from a low point due to warmer than normal winters and an oversupply situation. He mentions that producers have cut back, demand is coming back, and exports are increasing, leading to a rise in prices.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Oil Price Predictions Amid Market Uncertainty

In this segment, the speaker, Peter, engages in a discussion with Phil Flynn about the volatility of oil prices. Phil, a respected voice in the oil and gas sector, dismisses the possibility of oil prices plummeting to $25 a barrel, a view held by some pessimists. He suggests that while extreme geopolitical events could theoretically drive prices down, a more likely short-term scenario is a rise towards $80-$88 a barrel. The conversation also touches on the oversupply concerns by 2030, the shift in public opinion regarding electric vehicles (EVs), and the potential impact of government policies on the oil industry. Phil emphasizes the importance of the U.S. as a major oil producer and the fallacy of expecting an imminent demise of fossil fuels.

05:01

💡 Government Missteps in Energy Policy and Economic Implications

The second paragraph delves into the U.S. government's approach to energy, with Phil Flynn criticizing the Biden Administration's handling of the energy sector. He points out the administration's inconsistent stance on oil production and the impracticality of their green energy initiatives, such as the high cost of creating jobs in the sector. Phil argues that the government's mismanagement of funds and lack of strategic planning could be detrimental to the U.S. economy. He contrasts this with the Trump Administration's more industry-friendly approach, suggesting it would be more beneficial for the oil and gas industry. The importance of the U.S. oil and gas industry in facilitating a successful energy transition is also highlighted.

10:02

🌍 Geopolitical Shifts and the Future of the Petrodollar

In the final paragraph, the discussion shifts to the geopolitical landscape and its influence on oil prices. Phil Flynn and Peter explore the potential impact of the BRICS formation on the global economy and trade, emphasizing the importance of the U.S. maintaining a strong position in the energy sector. They discuss the significance of the petrodollar system, established post-World War II, which has contributed to the strength of the U.S. economy. Phil warns of the dangers of taking this system for granted and the need for the U.S. to be proactive in the face of emerging global competitors, such as India, to ensure continued economic dominance.

Keywords

💡Investment Advice

Investment advice refers to recommendations or guidance provided to individuals or organizations regarding financial investments. In the video, Peter emphasizes that the information shared should not be considered investment advice and advises viewers to consult licensed financial advisors before making any investment decisions.

💡Oil Prices

Oil prices denote the cost per barrel of crude oil. The video discusses differing opinions on future oil prices, with some predicting $25 per barrel and others predicting $125. Phil Flynn provides his perspective, suggesting that a price closer to $100 is more likely, reflecting the volatility and unpredictability in the oil market.

💡Electric Vehicles (EVs)

Electric vehicles (EVs) are cars powered by electricity instead of traditional internal combustion engines. The video discusses the initial hype around EVs and the recent decline in interest and sales, with many buyers expressing regret and returning to traditional vehicles. Phil Flynn argues that the EV dream promoted by the Biden administration is unrealistic and faces significant challenges.

💡Geopolitical Risk Factors

Geopolitical risk factors refer to political events and situations that can affect global markets and economies, such as wars or political instability. Phil Flynn mentions the presence of Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf of Mexico as an example, suggesting such risks could drastically impact oil prices.

💡Energy Transition

Energy transition involves shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy sources. The video criticizes the Biden administration's approach to this transition, highlighting the inefficiencies and challenges in implementing green energy initiatives. Phil Flynn argues that a balanced and realistic approach is necessary, involving both traditional and renewable energy sources.

💡Natural Gas

Natural gas is a fossil fuel used for heating, electricity generation, and as an industrial feedstock. In the video, Phil Flynn discusses the fluctuations in natural gas prices, emphasizing how low prices eventually lead to reduced production and increased demand, thereby pushing prices back up.

💡Petro Dollar

The petro dollar system involves trading oil in US dollars, which strengthens the US economy. The video mentions the strategic importance of the petro dollar agreement with Saudi Arabia and the potential risks if other countries challenge this system, emphasizing the need for the US to maintain its competitive edge in the global energy market.

💡Energy Policy

Energy policy refers to government plans and actions regarding energy production, distribution, and consumption. The video contrasts the energy policies of the Biden administration with those of the Trump administration, suggesting that Trump's policies were more favorable for the oil and gas industry.

💡BRICS Formation

BRICS is an acronym for Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, a group of emerging economies. The video discusses the potential impact of these countries forming an economic alliance, particularly in relation to oil markets, and how it could challenge the dominance of the US and the petro dollar system.

💡Energy Sector Investment

Energy sector investment refers to the allocation of financial resources to develop energy infrastructure and technologies. The video highlights the significant investments in green energy initiatives by the Biden administration, critiquing their effectiveness and the approach taken to stimulate growth and create jobs in the sector.

Highlights

The speaker emphasizes that the discussion is not investment advice and recommends consulting a licensed financial advisor.

Phil Flynn is recognized as a reliable voice on oil and gas topics, with a balanced view on oil price predictions.

The speaker dismisses the possibility of oil dropping to $25 a barrel, considering it an unlikely scenario.

Geopolitical risks such as Russian submarines in the Gulf of Mexico are mentioned as potential factors that could crash the economy and affect oil prices.

A short-term prediction suggests oil prices are more likely to rise towards $80-88 than to drop to $25.

A report about ample oil supply by 2030 is discussed, questioning the validity of such predictions.

The electric vehicle (EV) market is criticized for its unrealistic expectations and current lack of consumer interest.

A study is cited where 49% of EV owners are considering a switch back to internal combustion engines due to various concerns.

The Biden Administration's energy policies are criticized for being misguided and potentially detrimental to the US economy.

The importance of the US oil and gas industry in facilitating a successful energy transition is highlighted.

A comparison is made between the potential impacts of a Biden versus Trump presidency on oil and gas prices and policies.

The Petro dollar system and its significance to the US economy are discussed, with concerns about potential changes.

The role of Saudi Arabia in global oil markets and the importance of maintaining good relations for trade and security are emphasized.

The potential impact of the BRICS formation on the world economy and oil trade is considered, with a call for the oil industry to adapt.

Natural gas prices and market dynamics are discussed, with a focus on recent changes and future predictions.

The speaker expresses concern about the US taking its energy leadership for granted and the need for vigilance against emerging competitors.

A closing note of appreciation for Phil Flynn's insights and contributions to the discussion.

Transcripts

hello everyone a few minutes with Peter

granch I always remind you this is not

to be considered investment advice

always speak to a license financial

advisor before making any investment

decision read out discloses well you

know every time I turn on one of those

stupid TV programs not where this man

fears but the other ones one guy says

$25 for oil one guy says $125 for oil

man when I think of oil and gas I only

think of one man Phil Flynn and I am

always so blessed that you are here I'm

blessed to be with you Peter thanks for

having me again so Phil somewhere in the

middle where where's oil going somewhere

in the middle is always a safe bet right

Stuck In The Middle With You right um I

want to party with the guy is saying $25

a barrel I mean this guy needs to be

cheered up right I mean if he's talking

$25 a barrel he must be like one of

these dun gloomer like the world is g to

come to an end um maybe he's right you

never know maybe he knows something

maybe he could be a profet but I I think

$25 a barrel is extremely unlikely I

don't think we've seen that level uh you

know since oil went below zero and I

don't expect to see it again anytime

soon but you know listen to get to $25 a

barrel you know there are things out

there that could crash the economy

geopolitical risk factors are

unbelievable I mean we have freaking

Russian nuclear submarines in the Gulf

of Mexico and warships so I guess the

end of the world scenario could drive us

down to that point more than likely

though we're probably headed back up

towards 8088 in the short term I I think

a lot more likely to see a 100 before we

see 25 that's that's my call anyway oh

Phil there was a report out forgive me

for not remembering exactly you it's one

of those World commissions or something

about by

2030 they could be such ample Supply

that price will won't be that high right

is that buying all into this what I

think is kind of blowing up Phil is this

just a couple years ago EV was going to

be everything and there wasn't going to

be a drop of oil needed anywhere I think

that's right I think the EV story is

blowing up in our faces we can see by

the dramatic drops and lack of interest

of purchasing of these cars but what

what do you think your best guess is

getting past the short term what do you

see for oil in general not so much price

but versus demand heat oil heat demand

you know Peter I mean you know we I've

lived long enough to see both ends of

the spectrum right I remember back in

the early 90s you know late 90s 2000 the

world is running out of oil we're never

going to be able to keep up we're never

going to be able to produce enough we

have to look for alternative energies

because we're running out we're going to

be forced to other forms of energy well

wait a second what happened high prices

cure high prices all of a sudden we

became the biggest oil producer in the

world now they're trying to to figure

out peak oil a different way it's like

oh now you can make it we don't want you

to make it now we want you to buy

electric cars you're absolutely right

the electric car fantasy is just that a

fantasy and listen I love electric cars

I think they're part of the equation

it's they're fun but I just saw a study

I think it came out just today a report

that actually pulled the people that

actually bought electric vehicles and

49% of the respondents to this poll said

they're going back to an internal

combustion engine they don't like to

have to you know plan on a long trip

they don't like the lack of charging

station range

anxiety um and the high cost of

insurance and and repair so a lot of

them have buyers remorse and and that's

that's another reason one of many why

this

electrification uh dream of the Biden

Administration is never going to happen

so I got two key questions because I

could talk to you all day and I think

everybody that would listen would learn

valuable information that's our good job

all serious for one minute we joke

around you're one of the best that

that's let me just put it that way and

I've been at this 40 years and I've seen

a lot of guys come and go but there's

two topics I think that are important

for people and I'd love to know your

opinion obviously I think this question

is loaded but I'm G to ask it anyway

what's the difference of another four

years of Biden or whoever somebody like

Biden versus Trump winning in terms of

oil and gas prices I I think it could be

revolutionary um because there's

absolutely no doubt um the Biden

Administration is a mess right they

don't know if they're for oil or against

oil you know they say that the US oil

companies are war profiteers and you

know but then it's like well we still

need you guys to produce oil and it's

like you know you can't have it both

ways right um it's a disaster you know I

just saw a press release that came out

from the Biden Administration and saying

you we spend billions of on green energy

jobs that have yet to be created but

they're going to be created and we're

going to make sure that when these jobs

theoretical jobs are going to be created

that we're spending billions of dollars

per job on um that they're going to be

paid at least a a a like a union wage

and we're going to build an apprentice

program so people that are making Union

wait a second don't you have to build a

company before you start figuring out

how much you're going to be paying

people I mean this is madness you know

we have situation Pete bovich you know

acknowledged that you know they're

spending billions of dollars on electric

car chargers billions I forget the exact

number they've built like seven maybe

eight and and and so this is a perfect

example of why the government needs to

get out of the energy business because

they don't know what they're doing they

don't know how to implement these plans

they don't know how to spend the money

yes you can encourage you know the

private sector with tax rates and stuff

but throwing the billions of doar at you

know five million different places and

hoping that something sticks isn't a

policy it's a waste of money and it's a

danger I think for the US economy

because we're GNA fall further behind

with all this madness so pop be to that

I would say then that a trump Victory

knowing what he did in his four years

which was kind of very bullish I thought

overall for energy would be much better

for the oil and gas industry I think it

is um and it's a double-edged sword

right because uh we saw president Trump

say drill baby drill and they did and

then they created a clad prices went

back down so they have to get smart but

you're absolutely right let the you know

the US Energy industry do what they do

best they do it better than anybody in

the world cleaner more efficiently right

but you know be reasonable about this

energy transition and I'll tell you this

Peter you know this as well as I do

without the US oil and gas industry you

can kiss your energy transition goodbye

because it can't happen it can't happen

and to not tap into the knowledge of the

people in that industry and just deride

them and say oh they're old you know

we're getting into this new green energy

stuff is a major mistake because you're

going to need all forms of energy over

the next 30 years and if if you dismiss

fossil fuels the only thing you're going

to do is raise inflation make people

poor and less happy because you know

let's face it uh you know better economy

people are generally happier hey Phil my

last one and I always thank you for the

time you give me I'm a big believer that

wall Street's blowing at Big Time not

understanding what the brick formations

is going to do to the world economy

world trade and things of that nature

having said all that if it continues to

move that way especially as we see Saudi

Arabia leaning towards joining and

others that has to play a role oil

because if there's this formation now

that they're talking of just the

countries that are supposedly going to

join up as of this fall that's where the

biggest part of the world's population

is going to be and what they do

regarding oil is going to play important

role so I think sooner or later even the

oil industry has to look at the bricks

and see how that's going to play out

versus you know always just counting on

the United States to always be number

one so to speak no you're absolutely

right and and listen one of the the

smartest things this country ever did

was make a deal with Saudi Arabia after

World War II guarantee them security you

know and that we could trade their oil

in in dollars right and the Petro dollar

helped the US economy would be one of

the most strongest Dynamic economies on

the face of the Earth um and too many

people take that for granted it's like

oh we're the biggest you're the dollar

you know we can use that to push our

will around the world we don't have to

negotiate you know we can make Saudi

Arabia a a a pariah state or we can do

this and it's like wait a second guys

you're feeding into the competition and

we're going to have competition Pete you

know that right we've been sitting on

our Laurels too long you know taking too

many things for granted we're spending

way too much money you know we think

it's never going to end but then it does

you know and now you're gonna have

competition from countries that may not

like us and they have huge growing

economies you've got India which could

be the fastest growing

you know economy in the world that could

overtake China in a couple years and

they definitely have the potential at

some point to take us over if we don't

wake up and smell the coffee right you

know I mean we were in a situation where

we had such a big lead over our

competitors that nobody could ever catch

us but it's like you know the tortoise

in the hair you know if you just assume

that that's the way it's always going to

be eventually that tortoise is going to

catch up and these tortoises are moving

and we're falling back what's wrong with

this picture here Pete yeah and we don't

know yet if the petrol dollar was

officially over there's rumors going

around that Biden claim got something

where we're gonna do a deal again in

exchange for them recognizing Israel and

all I think that's a lot of BS I agree I

agree I think it's a lot of BS and quite

frankly I don't think any decision is

coming from Biden anyway now anything

that's coming is from somebody else

standing behind him behind those

curtains I don't think he's capable of

having these type of decisions going

forward so Phil one last quick question

we always oil it's not the season for it

but I have to ask you because somebody

will write to me how come you any next

bill about natural gas what does say

about natural gas at the moment it's

back from the dad right I think last

time we spoke wasn't natural gas like

A180 right but you know this is a

classic case of low prices curing low

prices you know we had this incredible

glood warmer than normal

Winters um and and the concerns were you

know the producers kept producing and it

was like you better stop well they

finally got the message producers

started to cut back demand started to

come back LG exports are going up we we

are the cheapest natural gas prices

price in the planet everybody wants our

natural gas why we're slowing that

process down I'll never know Peter it

drives me that's but but um yeah but now

you know low prices cure low prices cut

back on production all of a sudden I

guess it gets hot in the summer who knew

people turn on air conditioners and with

this heat wave it's driving demand for

electricity powered by natural gas

cleaner burning natural gas by the way

so we're back on the way up okay Bill

Flynn can I say I love you buddy love

you man God bless you my friend all

blessings to you sir