Trudeau Says Canadian House Prices Must Retain Their Value
Summary
TLDR在这段视频中,讨论了加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多关于房地产可负担性的评论,他指出降低房价会危及人们的退休计划,强调房产价值的保持对人们未来的重要性。视频还分析了房地产市场的现状,包括住房供应紧缩、利率上升对新住房投资的影响,以及人口增长对住房需求的影响。此外,还预测了加拿大银行可能的降息行动及其对经济和房地产市场的潜在影响,指出尽管存在对可负担住房的需求,但现有金融系统依赖于不断增长的信贷和债务,降息可能是为了维持这一系统。
Takeaways
- 🏦 加拿大银行即将宣布利率,市场密切关注。
- 🗣️ 加拿大总理特鲁多在《环球邮报》的播客采访中表示,房地产需要更可负担,但降低房价可能会危及退休计划。
- 💡 特鲁多强调住房应保持其价值,因为它是人们退休和未来的重要部分。
- 😠 人们对于住房可负担性的期望与政治家们的言论之间存在矛盾,住房价格下降可能会影响政治连任。
- 🏠 住房是大多数人的退休储蓄计划,也是税收优势的来源。
- 📉 加拿大政府的财政赤字问题严重,需要税收收入,包括提高资本收益税率。
- 📈 房地产市场的税收是政府收入的重要组成部分,包括资本收益税、物业转让税和地税等。
- 🤔 讨论了房地产市场价格是否真的上升,还是货币价值随时间逐渐侵蚀的问题。
- 📊 通过将房价与黄金价格比较,可以看出货币价值的侵蚀和资产价格的通货膨胀。
- 🏢 银行依赖于信贷增长来推动经济增长,如果抵押资产价值下降,将影响银行发放新贷款的能力。
- 📉 加拿大的经济增长放缓,人均GDP连续七个季度下降,表明生活水平并未提高。
- 🌐 加拿大政府的移民政策导致人口增长迅速,但住房供应不足,与经济增长不匹配。
- 💸 尽管政府声称要建造更多住房以实现可负担性,但实际上住房价格需要下降才能真正实现可负担性。
- 📈 市场预期加拿大银行今年将多次降息,但实际降息幅度可能有限,对房地产市场的影响也有限。
- 🏘️ 目前房地产市场活动减少,库存开始增加,市场疲软。
Q & A
贾斯廷·特鲁多在播客访谈中提到了什么关于房地产的观点?
-贾斯廷·特鲁多在与《环球邮报》的播客访谈中提到,房地产需要更加可负担,但降低房价会危及人们的退休计划。他认为住房需要保持其价值,因为它是人们退休和未来储备的重要组成部分。
为什么降低房价可能会对退休计划产生风险?
-降低房价可能会对退休计划产生风险,因为对于许多人来说,住房是他们退休储备的主要形式。如果房价大幅下跌,可能会减少他们的资产净值,从而影响他们的财务安全。
为什么说“住房需要保持其价值”是一个政治上不应该公开说的观点?
-这是因为政治家们通常被期望支持降低房价以提高住房的可负担性。然而,特鲁多的言论暗示了住房作为投资和储蓄工具的重要性,这可能会与公众对降低生活成本的期望相冲突。
为什么说住房是许多人的整个退休计划储蓄?
-住房通常是一个家庭最有价值的资产。随着房价的上涨,家庭可以通过出售或出租房产来获得收入,这可以作为退休后的收入来源。此外,住房还具有税收优势,可以作为财富积累的一种方式。
为什么政府需要保持房价的上涨?
-房价上涨可以带动所谓的“财富效应”,这可以刺激消费和经济增长。此外,房价上涨还有助于政府增加税收,如资本利得税、物业转让税和地税等。
为什么说房地产市场的当前状况与2022年夏季相似?
-2022年夏季,由于加拿大银行开始加息,房地产市场活动大幅减少。当前市场也显示出类似的放缓迹象,库存开始增加,市场活动减少,这可能是由于利率上升和对未来经济不确定性的担忧。
为什么说“建造更多的住房”并不能真正解决住房可负担性问题?
-尽管建造更多的住房理论上可以增加供应并降低价格,但实际上,由于利率上升、资本投资减少和人口增长等因素,住房供应可能仍然紧张,这限制了新住房对降低房价的实际影响。
为什么说加拿大经济在过去十年中几乎没有增长?
-尽管人口增长迅速,但加拿大的人均GDP增长却持续下降,这表明经济在人均基础上实际上是在收缩。这种停滞可能与政策决策、经济结构问题和其他宏观经济因素有关。
为什么说加拿大银行可能会在近期内降息?
-由于经济增长低于预期,加上市场对降息的预期很高,加拿大银行可能会在近期内降息以刺激经济。然而,这也取决于美国联邦储备银行的行动,因为如果美联储不降息,加拿大银行的降息空间可能会受到限制。
为什么说住房市场的放缓可能会对经济产生更广泛的影响?
-住房市场放缓可能会减少建筑业的活动,影响就业和消费。此外,如果房价下跌,可能会减少家庭的财富,从而影响他们的消费能力和整体经济的增长。
为什么说货币政策和信贷增长对房地产市场至关重要?
-银行通过发放贷款和抵押贷款来创造信贷,而信贷是推动经济增长的关键因素。如果银行的资产价值下降,可能会影响它们发放新贷款的能力,从而影响整个经济的信贷供应和经济增长。
Outlines
😐 房价与退休计划的关系
第一段主要讨论了加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多在一次播客采访中的评论。他指出,尽管需要使房地产更加可负担,但降低房价会危及人们的退休计划。他强调房产需要保持其价值,因为它是人们退休和未来储备的重要组成部分。视频作者批评了这种观点,认为这是政治家不应该公开说出的'安静部分',即每个人都希望有可负担的住房,但没有人希望他们的房子变得可负担。作者还讨论了房价上涨对经济和GDP增长的影响,以及政府对税收的需求,特别是在当前的财政赤字情况下。
🏠 房地产市场与货币政策
第二段进一步探讨了房地产市场与货币政策之间的关系。作者指出,房地产市场的高价值是维持当前金融体系的关键,这个体系依赖于信贷的持续增长。如果作为银行贷款抵押的资产价值下降,将影响银行发放新贷款的能力。此外,作者提到了加拿大的住房供应问题,以及人口增长对住房需求的影响。最后,作者批评了政府关于通过建设更多住房来实现住房可负担性的承诺,认为这在当前的货币体系下是不现实的。
📉 加拿大经济的十年停滞
第三段讨论了加拿大经济在过去十年中的表现,指出实际上几乎没有增长,这与政府的政策和国家的结构性问题有关。作者提到了加拿大银行的利率预期与实际GDP增长之间的差距,以及市场对加拿大银行可能的利率下调的预期。此外,作者还提到了人口增长与经济人均增长之间的关系,指出在人均基础上,加拿大经济实际上已经连续七个季度收缩。
🤔 利率政策与房地产市场的未来
最后一段预测了加拿大银行可能的利率政策变动及其对房地产市场的潜在影响。作者认为,尽管市场预期加拿大银行今年会有六次降息,但实际上可能不会达到这个数字。作者还讨论了当前房地产市场的低迷状态,以及与2022年夏季的相似之处,当时市场活动因利率上升而大幅减少。最后,作者再次强调了特鲁多关于房价需要保持价值的评论,暗示这与他竞选时关于可负担住房的承诺相矛盾。
Mindmap
Keywords
💡住房可负担性
💡退休计划
💡财富效应
💡中央银行
💡利率
💡财政赤字
💡税收收入
💡信用
💡通货膨胀
💡货币政策
💡人口增长
Highlights
加拿大总理贾斯汀·特鲁多在播客访谈中提出,降低房价可能会危及退休计划,强调住房需要保持其价值。
住房作为许多人的退休储蓄和未来“金蛋”,是政治家们不愿看到房价下跌的原因之一。
房地产市场的上涨带动了财富效应,进而推动消费和经济增长。
加拿大政府迫切需要税收收入,包括提高资本收益纳入率,以应对财政赤字。
房地产市场的税收,包括资本收益税和财产转让税,是加拿大政府的重要收入来源。
房地产市场的价格上涨与货币价值的侵蚀有关,这可能是通货膨胀的体现。
通过黄金盎司来衡量房地产价格,可以观察到货币价值随时间的变化。
房地产市场的持续上涨对于维持现有金融系统至关重要,因为它依赖于信贷的持续增长。
加拿大房地产市场的供应正在紧缩,随着利率上升,新的住房投资受到影响。
加拿大政府每年引入超过一百万的人口,人口增长速度达到70年来最快。
尽管政府声称要通过建造更多住房来实现住房可负担性,但这在现实中几乎不可能实现。
加拿大经济增长放缓,人均GDP连续七个季度下降,表明生活水平并未提高。
加拿大央行可能在6月或7月降息,以应对经济增长放缓。
市场预计加拿大央行今年将降息50至100个基点,但可能不足以重燃房地产市场。
房地产市场活动已经显著减少,与2022年夏季的情况相似,当时市场因利率上升而停滞。
尽管政府声称要提高住房可负担性,但实际上他们更关注于保持房价稳定。
资产价格的上涨可以被视为货币贬值的另一种形式,这在当前的金融体系中持续发生。
Transcripts
hey CS here welcome back to the show I
want to touch on a few things this week
before we get into the Bank of Canada
expectations for the rate announcement
next week which everyone is watching
very very closely uh but I want to touch
on some comments first in foremost from
our dear leader JT Justin Trudeau uh he
did a podcast interview with the Globe
and Mail and there was an article is
published shortly thereafter from the
global mail saying quote trudo says real
estate needs to be more affordable but
lowering home prices would put
retirement plans at risk and so
basically he said the quiet part out
loud you are not supposed to say that as
a politician you know affordable housing
you know po prices are supposed to come
down uh so there's a little bit more of
a to expand on his quote he said housing
needs to retain its value it's a huge
part of people's potential for
retirement and for their future Nest Egg
those are his comments not mine now
again A lot of people are getting
extremely frustrated by that but it's
really like one of the core themes that
I've been talking to this channel for
like four or five years now especially
during the the onset of the pandemic
when hous pricing was ripped and they
reducing it and letting people to
further mortgages and and we are
printing all this money at the Central
Bank level this is one of the things
that I said and the reason for that is
like it was that old quote that you know
everybody wants affordable housing but
nobody wants their house to become
affordable
um the reality is is housing is most
people's entire retirement plan savings
it's the one free tax advantage you get
in this country no politician whether
it's JT or Pier paev is getting
reelected if National house prices drop
30% across the board that comes with
huge losses at the banks credit seizes
up jobs get lost people lose jobs they
end up in the food bank lines and it's
pretty hard to get reelected under those
circumstances so you're kind of walking
this tight rope which is at the end of
the day house prices go up 65% of people
own a home that fuels uh a wealth effect
that fuels additional consumption and
that is really what drives your economic
and GDP growth again right or wrong um
housing is largely responsible for that
you then have to think about the tax
revenue base right think about this this
is a federal government
that is spending their brains out in
fact we just heard this week the federal
government remember uh christop Freeland
the Finance Minister said you know we're
going to have this fiscal anchor you
know we need to get inflation down we
have this fiscal anchor uh we're going
to have the the deficit running at 40
billion and we're not going to exceed 40
billion well guess what we just had the
numbers out this week that says they're
projecting to the deficit is projecting
around 50 billion so she's already
missed this fiscal anchor um and so the
government is desperate for tax revenues
why do you think they brought in the
increased capital gains inclusion rate
that's supposed to be enacted this
summer again the government is desperate
for revenues and think about Revenue
base in Canada what does it have going
for it other than real estate um real
estate uh in the form of capital gains
taxes being paid you know you sell an
investment property etc etc values go up
uh as values go up those are tax
revenues property transfer taxes to
provincial governments uh municipalities
receive their tax based through property
taxes so as values rise uh they tend to
ACR uh more taxes from that they charge
developers development cost charges uh
dcc's levies all these fees that come
from the transactions and the value of
real estate going higher now I will say
when we talk about the value real
estate so much of this is just um this
this fiat currency Pony as debasement
which is really like are house prices
really going up or is your value of your
currency just being slowly eroded over
time and so you can call it CPI
inflation you can look at the CPI basket
or you can simply look at asset prices
and and in many like you study
historical examples of uh
inflation and debasement and collapses
of
civilization a lot of times that
inflation showed up in asset prices okay
such as real estate um money gets pushed
into real estate as a safety mechanism
to store wealth is is is a preservation
of capital and so as you enter into
these inflationary debasement scenarios
you tend to actually see that in asset
prices again AKA real estate and I've
always pointed people to say guys this
is just something to consider I'm not
saying it's right I'm not saying it's
wrong but it's something that I use
around for my framework is look at the
prices of Vancouver real estate where
I'm located price them in ounces of gold
and you can see that how the question is
how many ounces of gold does it take
today versus 5 years ago 10 years ago 30
years ago how many ounces of gold does
it take to buy the average home in
Greater Vancouver and we can see that
that it's actually taking fewer and
fewer ounces of gold to buy real estate
despite real estate Roofing over the
last decade basically doubling and this
is basically showing you that you have
this erosion of the currency you have
asset price
inflation that is showing up in real
estate
valuations and this is the main
mechanism so when they say you know real
estate uh must retain its value it needs
to retain its value because they need
need to maintain the existing Financial
system which relies on credit continuing
to grow uh credit you know the banks
when they issue loans when they issue
mortgages they create credit and credit
is what drives economic growth in the
economy and so if the asset value that
the banks are lending against starts to
fall on to say it fall 30% across the
board that that's the bank's collateral
that's their security and so what
happens then is the
assets um basically that the bank has
lend against are
falling and all of a sudden it impairs
their ability to issue new loans because
the c banks have uh we call it tier one
Capital ratios that they have to sort of
meet and so this is basically the gist
is they need to keep the system going so
they need to kind of have continous
Rising uh home prices to and so it's
it's kind of a joke really when they say
hey we need affordable housing and we're
actually going to build our way out of
it well guys we've talked about the show
for the last six plus months is what's
happening to housing Supply it's
crashing it's getting crunched it's
getting absolutely crunched as interest
rates rise it's killing off capital
investment into new housing the federal
government meanwhile continues to pile
drive a million plus people a year into
this country the population is expanding
at the fastest rate it has in basically
70 years um and so he says we're going
to make housing affordable by by
building out of it it's it's it's a lie
there is no there is no such thing as
affordable housing it's kind of this
political uh fiction or fairy tale that
they tell the average person that
they're they're they're doing something
and you can kind of see again he the the
Freudian slip that oh well we need to
make maintain values but we're going to
create affordable housing at the same
time it's like well no if you want
affordable housing the prices need to
drop um and and they can't really allow
that to happen in the existing monetary
system that is all based on ever growing
piles of debt and so I find that really
fascinating again keep in mind that JT
is growing the population by 3% a year
now we just had the latest FES this week
on GDP growth and so uh you know
everyone's kind of watching this number
we going into recession is it is is the
data soft enough for the Bank of Canada
to start cutting right maybe we're s
going to cut here in June well GDP on an
annualized basis in q1 came in at
1.7 1.7% annualized in q1 that's below
the bank of Canada's forecast for
2.8% growth so wow I mean that's a huge
massive
Miss on the bank of Canada's forecast it
just adds to speculation around rate
Cuts but more
importantly um so we saw the Bank of
Canada the market odds are now 80% so
markets are pricing financial markets
are pricing they're betting there's 80%
odds of a rate cut from the Bank of
Canada next week in June uh after the
latest string of economic data but more
important again 1.7% annualized growth
just to highlight how weak that is
remember I just told you the
population's been growing it's been
growing at
3% but your economy is only growing at
1.7% so on a on a on a net net basis
your economy is Contracting on a per
capita basis in fact it's now been
contracting for seven straight quarters
seven straight quarters of real GDP on a
per capita basis is declining so if your
living standards feel like they're not
getting any better they're maybe getting
a little bit worse if it feels like it
really hasn't gotten any better well
it's because we actually have pretty
much a lost decade in this country if
you look at chart here from National
Bank showing that there's been virtually
no growth in the Canadian economy for
the past decade uh really ultimately
since the current government got into
power again I'm not saying that it's all
their fault and this is the only reason
why no I mean the Canadian economy has a
lot of structural problems I mean
certainly I would argue that the current
federal government is not helping uh
they are certainly I think poor economic
actors poor policy makers um but there's
been a lost decade in Canada um and and
I think this it's a just it's a
concerning Trend I mean you've got
really unaffordable housing people
starting to to you know contemplate
leaving the country you've got weak
economic growth you got a lot of debt
and um so just seeing again the
government is saying well you know we
got to keep housing affordable so this
is this is what I think here is we're
going to probably get a rate cut from
the Bank of Canada in fact we had an uh
Doug Porter beemo's Chief Economist on
the Looney hour this week uh his view is
a rate cut from the boc in June I went
alongside Doug uh I I think it's if it
doesn't come in June it's coming in July
the only again issue is the the data in
the US simply not weak enough where the
FED isn't going to cut in the states so
basically your question is how much can
the BCC actually cut if the fed and most
likely the FED not moving how much Cuts
can the BC get uh before they basically
can't go any further and you know
depending on what Economist you ask it
seems to be anywhere between 50 and 100
basis points so that kind of give gives
you any indication if you're sitting
there on a variable rate mortgage and
you're wondering how much mortgage rates
are going to come down you're wondering
how much debt you got and how much you
need to get rid of you're going to be
stuck most likely this higher for longer
environment um it's 50 basis points of
rate Cuts this year from the BC going to
reignite and Kickstart the housing
market I don't think so um that's still
going to leave your variable rate
mortgage in the in the mid fives mid the
high fives that's going to be a painful
adjustment for a lot of people now could
you get a little bit of a bump here in
the summer months because there's some
optimism and some sentiment changing it
should get a few people off the side
lines as that rate cut announcement uh
comes out but I think as it kind of
filters out you look at it saying well
hold on a minute rates are still going
to be pretty pretty high so I think that
sentiment you know while you could get
that initial pop it should start to wear
off now I will say this on the housing
market front uh the market is slow this
is a slow housing market you started off
the year pretty hot on the expectation
again Market's pricing six they're
pricing six cuts from the boc this year
I don't think we're get anywhere close
to that that optimism slowly pulled and
faded out of the market inventory is now
finally starting to build up and we're
seeing uh real softness real softness in
the housing market I've equated this
that it feels to me uh boots on the
ground feels a lot like summer of
2022 which was basically the market
completely died uh because the bank
ofana started raising rates not just by
25 basis points but you remember in July
of 2022 they were raising rates by 100
basis points at a single meeting people
were freaked out everyone was wondering
how high rates would go the market
activity completely died off and today
it it kind of feels pretty similar to
that uh housing market activity has
really tapered off over the last six
weeks um but again remember the quiet
part out loud the Justin
housing must retain its value despite
him campaigning on affordable housing
and pulling out all these stops creating
a housing catalog guys that isn't going
to do anything for you um this is the
real Freudian slip that uh you know the
Pony s dynamics of the fiat currency
world uh continue to play out again I
would point you to the home prices in
Gold you can do it home prices and S&P
shares you can do it anything tangible I
mean a fiat currency is just a just a
promise from the government it's just an
exchange of of of of basically digits on
a keyboard um there's no tangible
backing behind a fiat currency and so I
continue to look at uh asset inflation
just as another form of of inflation or
debasement and uh I think we got more
evidence of that this week and we might
get we might get more evidence of it
from the Bank of Canada next week that
um they need to cut simply on the basis
to maintain the existing system uh and
the only thing holding them back right
now is the Fed so as always hope that
help see you next
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