What's Up In the Middle East: Israel's Future || Peter Zeihan

Summary

Peter Zion discusses Israel's political landscape, focusing on its coalition-based democracy and the challenges faced by Prime Minister Netanyahu. He highlights tensions between Netanyahu and Trump, particularly over Gaza, tariffs, and Iran. Zion notes that while Israel's strategic partnership with the U.S. has been pivotal, Trump seems disengaged from the Middle East, leaving Israel to navigate its future security independently. Zion also suggests that Israel might turn to other regional powers, such as Turkey, as potential allies moving forward.

Takeaways

• 😀 Israel operates under a multi-party democracy, with no majority government in years, leading to weak coalitions and frequent elections.
• 😀 The Israeli government has been struggling with unstable coalitions, similar to how Italy operated in the '60s to '90s.
• 😀 Benjamin Netanyahu, the current leader, has been at the top of Israeli politics for almost 40 years and is a populist conservative.
• 😀 Netanyahu’s leadership requires constant political bargaining with coalition partners, often sacrificing his own preferences to maintain power.
• 😀 In a recent visit, Netanyahu asked Trump for three things: a free hand in Gaza, an end to tariffs, and a bombing campaign against Iran.
• 😀 Trump's response to Netanyahu's requests was a firm 'no' on all three, signaling a shift in US-Israel relations.
• 😀 Netanyahu's inability to resolve the Gaza issue, which has been ongoing for over a year, is seen as a failure in Trump's eyes.
• 😀 The US-Israel relationship has been complicated, with Israel relying on American support since its founding, but with diminishing US interest in the Middle East.
• 😀 Trump’s 'America First' approach contrasts with Israel’s need for continued strategic American support, especially regarding Gaza and Iran.
• 😀 Netanyahu's coalition struggles to find a solution for Gaza, and there is even talk of relocating Gazans to Libya, though this is impractical.
• 😀 The US is moving away from Middle Eastern entanglements, and Israel must now consider new strategic partners, with Turkey being a potential option for future cooperation.

Q & A

What type of government does Israel have?

Israel has a multi-party democracy, with an electoral system where parties receive a proportional share of seats based on their vote percentage, rather than a winner-takes-all system like in the United States.

Why has the Israeli government struggled with stability over the past few decades?

The Israeli government has struggled with stability due to the necessity of coalition governments, which involve multiple parties. These coalitions often lead to weak governments that are unable to complete their full term due to the need to satisfy all coalition partners.

Who is Benjamin Netanyahu, and what is his political stance?

Benjamin Netanyahu is the leader of Israel, who has been at the top of Israeli politics for nearly 30 years. He is a populist conservative known for making tactical compromises to maintain power, even at the cost of his own political preferences.

How did Netanyahu's meeting with Donald Trump go, and what were the outcomes?

Netanyahu's meeting with Trump went poorly. Netanyahu asked for three things: a free hand in Gaza, an end to tariffs, and U.S. military action against Iran. Trump rejected all three requests, signaling a shift in U.S. policy and distancing from Israel's interests.

What is Gaza, and why is it a contentious issue for Israel?

Gaza is a small strip of territory that was previously governed by Hamas, a militant political group. It has been a major issue for Israel due to ongoing violence and the presence of insurgents. Israel has been trying to find a long-term solution to the Gaza problem, but the situation remains unresolved after years of conflict.

Why did Netanyahu's request for an end to tariffs surprise Israel?

Netanyahu’s request for the end of tariffs was surprising because Israel has been closely aligned with the U.S. for decades, and they expected Trump, a populist conservative, to support them more strongly. The tariffs had caught Israel off guard, especially considering their historically favorable trade relationship.

What role does Trump see Israel playing in the U.S. strategic interests?

Trump sees Israel as an important strategic partner in the Middle East, an island of democracy in a region filled with instability. However, he also indicates that Israel’s situation should be handled independently, rather than expecting the U.S. to intervene in every issue, like with Gaza or Iran.

Why does Trump oppose military intervention in Iran?

Trump opposes military intervention in Iran because he is not interested in getting involved in a prolonged war, especially one that could destabilize the region further. Despite talking tough on Iran, Trump’s administration has repeatedly shown reluctance to engage in direct military conflict.

What challenge does Netanyahu face in dealing with Gaza?

Netanyahu faces the challenge of balancing the demands of his coalition government, particularly the right-wing factions that have hardline views on Gaza. Any peace deal or movement in Gaza could risk rupturing his domestic political coalition, which makes finding a solution extremely difficult.

What does the script suggest about the future of U.S.-Israel relations?

The script suggests that U.S.-Israel relations may be shifting, with the U.S. showing less interest in the Middle East under Trump. This could force Israel to seek new alliances, potentially with countries like Turkey, while also having to manage its own security and interests more independently.