TOM LEE says "DRIVERS for INFLATION are FALLING AWAY"

Summary

In this video script, financial expert Tom Lee discusses the impact of global elections on markets, highlighting significant drops in French, Indian, and Mexican stocks due to political uncertainties. He notes that the U.S. market may be less affected by political changes. Lee also addresses inflation, suggesting it’s decreasing faster than anticipated, and analyzes its effects on markets. Additionally, the script explores the Ichimoku Cloud indicator, used for assessing stock trends, and reviews various international ETFs' performance. The session concludes with insights into the current state of cyber security ETF, hack.

Takeaways

• 📉 Global elections are impacting markets significantly, as seen with France's stocks experiencing their worst week in 2 years due to political uncertainty.
• 📈 Despite global market fluctuations, the US stock market remains resilient and is less likely to be affected by a change in political parties, according to Tom Lee.
• 💡 Tom Lee suggests that energy policy and trade policies are similar between the current and former US administrations, but differences lie in areas like energy policy, affecting sectors differently.
• 🔑 Bitcoin and energy stocks are highlighted as indicators of market sentiment towards potential political outcomes, with Tom Lee noting their performance could signal market expectations.
• 📊 There's skepticism around the recent drop in inflation rates, with over 55% of CPI components now below their pre-pandemic average, suggesting that inflationary pressures may be easing.
• 🤔 The divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ indices is concerning, with the NASDAQ reaching new highs while the Dow has declined, indicating a lack of broad market participation.
• 📊 The ichimoku indicator, a technical analysis tool, is used by Fundstrat and other financial analysts to identify trends and potential entry and exit points in the market.
• 🌐 International markets are not performing as well as the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, with many European country ETFs showing declines on the weekly charts.
• 🚫 The ichimoku indicator emphasizes avoiding long positions when the price is under the cloud or moving averages, which can prevent significant losses in a downtrend.
• ✅ The indicator's effectiveness is demonstrated through various examples, including avoiding a 41.2% decline in Hong Kong's ETF by recognizing sell signals.
• 📊 The video also discusses the importance of using technical indicators like the ichimoku for making informed trading decisions rather than relying solely on news or emotions.

Q & A

What is the main topic of discussion in the provided video script?

The main topic of discussion in the script is the impact of global elections on the stock market, with a focus on how political outcomes in various countries are influencing market trends and investor behavior.

What happened to French stocks recently as mentioned in the script?

French stocks experienced their worst week in 2 years, with all gains for the year being wiped out, due to investor concerns over the possibility of France's far-right party winning the upcoming parliamentary elections.

What was the situation with India's Nifty 50 index as discussed in the script?

India's Nifty 50 suffered its worst daily decline since the beginning of the pandemic because of concerns that Prime Minister Modi might lose his majority to a more left-leaning party. However, the market has since recovered somewhat.

What does Tom Lee believe about the potential impact of the US presidential election on the stock market?

Tom Lee believes that there is a risk of a conservative wave in the November US presidential election, but he does not consider it a risk to the markets. He suggests that the US stock market will not be flustered by a change in parties in the White House or Congress.

What are Tom Lee's views on the implications of different energy policies for energy stocks and Bitcoin?

Tom Lee thinks that if Trump wins in November, it could be bad for energy stocks because of increased drilling, but it would be good for Bitcoin. Conversely, if Biden wins, the market dynamics would remain more or less the same as they are currently.

What does the script suggest about the current state of inflation according to Tom Lee's investor note?

According to Tom Lee's investor note, inflation seems to be falling rapidly, which is a point of skepticism for some clients due to the abrupt decline from April to May. However, Lee argues that over 55% of CPI components are now below their pre-pandemic average, indicating that many drivers for inflation are falling away.

What is the significance of the ichimoku indicator mentioned in the script?

The ichimoku indicator is a technical analysis tool used to identify trends, momentum, support and resistance levels, and potential buy or sell signals. It was created in Japan in the 1930s and has been widely adopted in financial analysis.

How does the script describe the current performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average?

The script describes the Dow Jones Industrial Average as being stagnant and not keeping up with the NASDAQ, which has been reaching record highs. The Dow is down recently, indicating a divergence in market performance.

What is the general advice given in the script for using the ichimoku indicator?

The general advice given is to use the ichimoku indicator as a filter for entering or exiting long positions in stocks or ETFs. One should not enter a long position when the price is under the cloud or under the moving averages, and it's recommended to wait for a breakout above a prior high to enter a long position.

What is the potential risk of holding positions in stocks that are under the ichimoku cloud, as mentioned in the script?

The potential risk of holding positions in stocks that are under the ichimoku cloud is significant loss. The script provides examples of countries' ETFs that experienced substantial declines after their prices dropped under the cloud, indicating a lack of momentum and negative trends.

Outlines

00:00

📉 Global Elections and Market Volatility

The script discusses the impact of global elections on financial markets, highlighting how French stocks experienced their worst week in two years due to political uncertainties. It also mentions the negative market reactions in India and Mexico following their elections. The conversation with Tom Lee, a fund managing partner and CNBC contributor, explores the potential risks of a conservative wave in the upcoming US presidential election and its implications for various sectors such as energy and Bitcoin. Lee suggests that the US stock market may not be significantly affected by a change in political parties, drawing parallels to historical trends.

05:01

📈 Market Divergence and Inflation Insights

This paragraph examines the divergence between the Dow and NASDAQ indices, noting the Dow's decline despite record highs elsewhere. It also addresses the tension in bond markets due to data dependence on inflation reports. Tom Lee shares his views on inflation, stating that despite skepticism, recent declines in inflation rates are genuine and positive for the stock market. He emphasizes the importance of continued gridlock and fiscal spending under a potential Biden win, as well as the impact of energy policy and Bitcoin under a Trump victory.

10:02

📊 Ichimoku Indicator and Market Analysis

The speaker introduces the Ichimoku indicator, a technical analysis tool used to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and potential entry and exit points for trades. They discuss its components, including the Tenkan-Sen, Kijun-Sen, Senkou Span A, and Senkou Span B, explaining how these elements can be used to assess the strength of a trend and make informed trading decisions. The paragraph also mentions Mark Newton, a technical strategist at Fundstrat, who uses the Ichimoku indicator in his analysis.

15:02

🌐 International ETF Performance Review

The script provides an analysis of various international ETFs, discussing their performance based on the Ichimoku indicator. It highlights India's strong performance despite election volatility, South Korea's bullish trend, and South Africa's consolidation within the cloud. The analysis also covers Brazil's significant drop following a sell signal, Japan's recent decline, and Thailand's substantial loss due to a prolonged bearish trend.

20:02

📉 Bearish Signals and Market Declines

This paragraph focuses on the bearish signals given by the Ichimoku indicator for several country ETFs, including Mexico, Switzerland, Malaysia, Canada, the United Kingdom, and Australia. It details the percentage declines these ETFs have experienced and emphasizes the importance of heeding sell signals to avoid significant losses. The discussion also touches on the bearish harami candlestick pattern as a warning sign of market declines.

25:03

📊 ETF Performance and Ichimoku Application

The speaker evaluates the performance of various ETFs, such as the Vanguard Developed Markets ETF, Hong Kong, Spain, Peru, and the Vanguard European ETF, using the Ichimoku indicator. They highlight the sell and buy signals that could have led to profitable trades or avoided losses. The analysis underscores the effectiveness of the Ichimoku indicator in identifying entry and exit points for long-term and active traders.

30:05

🇳🇱 Netherlands ETF and European Market Overview

The script reviews the performance of the Netherlands ETF, noting its strength despite a general decline in European country ETFs. It discusses Germany's significant drop due to political issues, Italy's brief buy signal, Greece's positive performance, and France's substantial decline. The speaker also mentions the use of additional indicators like the directional movement indicator (DMI) to confirm trends.

35:07

🛡️ Cybersecurity ETF Analysis and Trading Caution

The final paragraph analyzes the HACK ETF, which focuses on cybersecurity stocks. It outlines the ETF's performance, including a recent 20% gain over four months. However, the speaker advises against entering a long position due to negative signals on the weekly chart and the need for a bullish crossover on the Ichimoku indicator. The paragraph concludes with a reminder of the importance of trading signals and patterns for active traders.

📈 Channel Growth and Trading Opportunities

In the closing paragraph, the speaker encourages viewers to subscribe to their channel and consider joining as a supporter to gain access to exclusive content, including stock and ETF reviews. They highlight the channel's growth and the value of the trading insights provided, inviting viewers to engage with the community for better trading decisions.

Keywords

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the video, Tom Lee discusses the recent decline in inflation rates, suggesting that it is falling 'like a rock,' which is interpreted as potentially good news for stocks, as lower inflation can lead to less aggressive actions by central banks and more stability in the markets.

💡Elections

Elections are democratic processes where citizens vote for their representatives or leaders. The script highlights how global elections, such as those in France and India, are impacting market sentiments and stock performances, indicating that political outcomes can have significant economic consequences and are considered a top risk for markets.

💡Market Volatility

Market volatility refers to the rapid and unpredictable fluctuations in the value of a security or market index. The video script describes instances of market volatility, such as the Mexican stock market's significant drop during an election period, and the potential for increased market volatility due to upcoming elections.

💡Stock Market

The stock market is a place where shares of publicly traded companies are issued and traded. The script discusses various stock markets, including the US, French, Indian, and Mexican markets, and how they are reacting to political events and economic indicators like inflation.

💡Parliamentary Elections

Parliamentary elections are the process by which members of a parliament are chosen. The script mentions the French parliamentary elections and the potential impact of a far-right party victory on the French stock market, illustrating the connection between political events and market dynamics.

💡NASDAQ

The NASDAQ is a major stock exchange for technology and biotechnology companies in the United States. The script contrasts the performance of the NASDAQ with other indices like the Dow Jones Industrial Average, noting the divergence in their performance and the concentration of gains in certain sectors.

💡Ichimoku Indicator

The Ichimoku Indicator is a technical analysis tool used by traders to identify trends and generate trading signals. The video script provides an in-depth explanation of the Ichimoku indicator, its components, and its application in analyzing various country ETFs, emphasizing its importance in identifying momentum and potential entry and exit points in the market.

💡ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds)

ETFs are investment funds that are traded on stock exchanges, much like individual stocks. The script analyzes various country-specific ETFs, such as those for India, South Korea, and Brazil, using the Ichimoku indicator to assess their performance and potential investment opportunities.

💡CNBC

CNBC is a leading business and financial news network. Tom Lee, mentioned in the script, is a fund managing partner, head of research, and a CNBC contributor, indicating the source of some of the expert opinions and analysis presented in the video.

💡Technical Analysis

Technical analysis is a method used to forecast the direction of prices through the study of past market data, primarily price and volume. The script includes a discussion of technical indicators, such as the Ichimoku, and their use in analyzing market trends and making trading decisions.

💡Bearish and Bullish Trends

Bearish trends indicate a downward movement in market prices, while bullish trends suggest an upward movement. The video script uses these terms to describe the market conditions of various ETFs, such as the bearish trend in Hong Kong's ETF and the bullish trend in the Netherlands' ETF, as determined by the Ichimoku indicator.

Highlights

Global elections are becoming a top risk for the market as seen in France's stocks posting their worst week in 2 years due to the far-right party's potential win in parliamentary elections.

India's market suffered its worst daily decline since the beginning of the pandemic due to concerns about Prime Minister Modi losing his majority to a more left-leaning party.

Mexico's stock market experienced its biggest single-day drop in four years following its election, illustrating the impact of political events on financial markets.

Nearly every major market in Europe is lower despite US markets reaching record highs, reflecting a potential concern leading up to the US presidential election.

Tom Lee from Fundstrat believes that a conservative wave in the US elections in November is not a risk to markets, unlike in Europe, due to historical performance post-election.

Lee suggests that US stock market reactions to a change in parties in the White House or Congress may have sectoral implications but not for the economy as a whole.

Energy policy differences between Trump and Biden could impact energy stocks and Bitcoin, with Trump's win potentially being good for Bitcoin and bad for energy stocks.

Inflation seems to be falling, which according to Tom Lee, is not necessarily bad news for stocks as long as it doesn't lead to deflation or make the Fed's job harder.

Clients are skeptical about the quality of recent CPI and PPI reports due to the abrupt decline in inflation rates from April to May.

Over 55% of CPI components are now below their pre-pandemic average, indicating that many drivers for inflation are falling away.

Investors are seeking confirmation of inflation trends over a couple of months due to the unreliability of jobs numbers and conflicting data between employment surveys.

The divergence between the Dow and the NASDAQ is concerning, with the NASDAQ reaching new highs while the Dow has been declining.

Broadcom was the biggest winner of the week, gaining 23.6%, with Bank of America suggesting it could be the next trillion-dollar company.

Paramount Global suffered the biggest decline, down 15%, as deal negotiations became messier and investors reacted negatively.

The ichimoku indicator, created in the 1930s in Japan, is used to identify trends, support and resistance levels, and momentum in the market.

The use of the ichimoku indicator by technical analysts, such as Mark Newton from Fundstrat, highlights its importance in stock analysis.

The S&P 500 and other indices are assessed using the ichimoku indicator to determine the best times to enter or exit positions.

International markets, such as India and South Korea, are showing strong charts on the weekly time frame, indicating positive momentum.

Country ETFs like those for Brazil, Japan, and Thailand are demonstrating sell signals based on the ichimoku indicator, suggesting caution in these markets.

The importance of using the ichimoku indicator as a filter to avoid entering long positions in stocks or ETFs that lack momentum or are in a downtrend.

The ichimoku indicator's ability to recognize potential sell signals and keep investors out of unfavorable positions, saving money in the long run.

Transcripts

right now on last call falling Like a

Rock fun strats Tom Lee just out with a

mus here report on inflation and he is

here hi everybody and happy Friday I am

Brian civan all that and more coming up

across the hour but first up on last

call a question are Global elections

quickly becoming the top risk for the

market and your money here's why we say

that today French stocks posted their

worst week in 2 years all their gains

this year gone investors getting spooked

by the possibility of France's far right

party winning upcoming parliamentary

elections now that is not the only

example last week India's nifty50 their

da suffering its worst daily decline

since the beginning of the pandemic it's

because Prime Minister Modi may lose his

majority but to a more left leaning

party India's Market has since swung

back at least for now but a similar

story last week with Mexico its stock

market tanking on their election the

Mexican market had its biggest single

day drop in four years and over the past

month nearly every Major Market in

Europe is lower even as we make record

highs so what does this mean if anything

as we inch toward the US presidential

election in November let's talk about

that inflation and everything else with

our friend Tom Lee fund managing partner

and head of research also a CNBC

contributor Tom what's that refrain that

the cool people on the interwebs like to

say elections have consequences well

they certainly have at least in those

markets do you see a risk

here um well I do think that there is a

risk that there is a conservative wave

in November um not that consider that a

risk to markets I I think that unlike

Europe uh I think that the US Stock

Market is not going to be flumed by uh a

change in parties in the white house or

in Congress and one reason for that is

well one history just show that it you

know regardless of outcomes equities

generally do pretty well post elction

but also I I think that there are maybe

sectoral implications for changes in the

party but not for the economy sort of as

a whole yeah that's that's that's

fascinating and and you wonder if it's

because without diving into politics Tom

I wouldn't ask you to do that but let's

be clear from an economic policy

perspective the current guy and the

former guy when it comes to trade and

stuff like that are pretty much the

same that's right um I'd say when it

comes to sort of global uh trade and

sort of global Dynamics they're very

similar I think the differences come

with regard to things like energy policy

where I think if Trump be you know it

wins in November it's actually bad for

energy stocks because it'd be more

Drilling and I think if Trump wins in

November that it would actually be good

for Bitcoin so in some ways watching

Bitcoin and energy give you some sense

for how the market is sort of judging

outcomes and and if Biden wins it's

probably just kind of more of the usual

cuz that's we have him in office now and

we see what's going on that's right

right I think that bet if Biden wins is

that you would just have continued

gridlock and potentially maybe liberal

fiscal spending and so it's not a

terrible Dynamic for markets and um as

long as inflation doesn't rear or re

accelerate it doesn't make the fed's job

any harder well a beautiful transition

from Tom Lee to Tom Lee because

inflation was the topic of your big

investor note today and you said

inflation seems to be falling like a

rock why do you say that and is that

necessarily good news for

stocks um well the reason we said that

is there seems to be some skepticism

from our clients about the quality of

that may CPI report which came out

Wednesday and the May PPI report which

came out Thursday because it was such an

Abrupt decline in the rate of inflation

from April to may but the internals were

actually much better than people

realized you know over 55% of CPI

components are now below their

pre-pandemic

average that means a lot of the sort of

drivers for inflation are actually

falling away and in terms of what it

means for markets you're right you know

you don't want to be in a deflationary

scenario which it's really not happening

you know inflation is still in the high

twos but it's moving faster towards the

target than the FED realizes that

actually is somewhat constructive well

can you blame your clients for wanting

to see is maybe a couple of months appr

proof because every jobs number has been

basically revised the other way you get

all this crazy noisy data between the

employment survey and the household

survey nobody can seem to figure it out

I don't I don't think it's a bad thing

to to to get a couple months

confirmation rather than get all joyful

because you know used car prices might

have fallen a little

bit yeah I mean that's a great point I I

think one thing that maybe investors are

starting to have some tension with is

this idea of data dependence because you

know markets want policy makers to be

somewhat forward-looking and the idea

that we're just looking at these

backwards inflation reports and then

judging what inflation's doing it does

create a lot of tension and you know

obviously a lot of uncertainty in bond

markets that's why you know rates

markets have really had a hard time

making heads or Tales of this I I posted

this to X Tom I don't know if you had a

chance to see it before you came on and

I was just showing the

Divergence between the Dow and the

NASDAQ I know nobody cares about the Dow

it's just more like a media index but

the way the NASDAQ keeps going up the

Dow is actually down recently over half

its stocks are down in the past three

months there's the chart thank you guys

and actually

273 of the S&P 500 are actually lower

over the last 90 days Tom even as we

make record highs are you worried at all

about just this I know we've talked

about it before but this Ma massive

concentration at the the top and so many

companies that are just not

participating well yeah I I think it's

it's probably one of the sort of flying

the ointments or one of the things

that's getting investors nervous is that

it would be better to see better breath

and of course I'd love to see the Dow

keeping up with the

nasck I think part of this is that

monetary policy sort of having Hawk

pauses and the idea that the fed you

know is still keeping on the table the

potential for hikes yep means it's

really hard for stocks to break out

because at the end of the day CEOs have

to say well if if if the fed's going to

be raising rates I'm going to stay

cautious and that's what's keeping

stocks cautious Tom Lee love the

conversation as always nothing phases

you have a great weekend Tom appreciate

it thank you all right let's take a look

at what happened to your money this week

remember that's this week that's what we

just talked about the Dow down a half a

percent the NASDAQ up

3.2% I mean just it's wild the

Divergence all right onto your stud and

dud the biggest winner of the week was

broadcom broadcom gaining

23.6% this week Bank of America says

this could be the next trillion doll

company the biggest decline or Paramount

Global down 15% the mess of reaching a

deal getting Messier investors getting

punished where's the bottom we have no

idea all right hello welcome to blue

cloud trading my name is George it is

Saturday June 15th that was Tom Lee on

the last call episode last night on

Friday and um sharing his thoughts on

the markets and you know right now the

US uh stock market is in fact doing

pretty well look at the Spy here um on

the weekly chart for example above the

moving averages and above the ichimoku

cloud now you're probably wondering what

the hell is this ichimoku Cloud I've

never heard of it maybe if you're new

okay um it is an indicator it was

created actually in the late

1930s and in Japan it was published in

the late

1960s financial institutions utilized it

a lot in Japan before it became adopted

also here in the

US and um the West in the late I think I

think it was like early ' 880s or so

what makes this

indicator uh unique is um I think the

the primary thing is number one the

cloud right it's it's basically plotted

here and I'm going to go into some of

the details about this indicator and

then I'm going to we're going to look at

the indices and then we're going to take

a look at some country country ETFs like

India EUR you know European stocks

Australia okay Canada we're going to

look at those because there's been a big

shift that happened this last week and

the markets in internationally are not

looking as good as the spy and the q's

are by the way our our Dow Jones like

like um was mentioned on the show right

um has been declining here it's it's

kind of stagnant and the Russell 2000

same thing right it's not hasn't moved

as much it was down

1.59% on Friday so let me um first talk

to you a little bit about this indicator

and just something that you should note

also is you just saw Tom Lee like I said

Tom Lee uh has a you know a group this

is so he works for fun he's under fun

Strat has a technical strategist uh by

the name of Mark L

Newton Chief Market

technician and this young lad uses the

ichimoku here's a post from Mark Newton

on his Twitter account so there's the

ich oku indicator right there so he's

you know they're using this techn this

um this particular um indicator in their

analysis of the stocks that they're

recommending so I just want you guys to

to be aware of that and guess what I do

too my channel here okay uh I've got

over 25 years of trading experience I've

been this is the focus of my channel for

those of you who are new you know I what

I try to do is I look at the business

news and Technical fundamental analysis

of stocks and ETFs and then I use the

ichimoku

indicator all right this indicator is

done really well for me um and I've

tried believe me over the years I've

tried them all all the indicators but I

always come back to this and I've

basically decided this is the one this

is basically the key to identifying what

it essentially does uh is

identifies um momentum it ident ifies

levels of support

resistance it identifies a lot of things

um Trends okay when price for example

and I'll just brief give you a brief

summary of what it is so here's a chart

with the ichimoku indicator on it and

the labeles of the different moving

averages we'll start off with the tenkin

in here the conversion line it it's the

blue line that you see right there okay

so let's focus on that so that it

basically takes the last nine periods in

this case we're looking at a daily chart

takes the last N9 days takes the highs

the

lows divides it by two and it plots it

on the

chart then you've got your keinen here

that is um let me just make that a

little easier to to see you got your

keyence in the red line okay what that

does is takes the last 26 periods the

highs and

lows divides that by two and plots it on

there so it's say the slow moving

average you always want that tenson to

be above the keinen right and then

you've got your chu span now here's an

interesting um twist basically what

they've done is taken the closing prices

projected at 26 periods into the past in

a line form so now you can quickly

assess where price is

today all right when you look at um the

price here you can see for example you

can go back into time and see where it's

in relation to price in the past what

you essentially want with this indicator

is you want to see this line

above the price below it if you have

that that's a confirmation that it's a

bullish Trend when it's under as it was

here you'll notice that this line was

under price very bearish for the

market okay next thing we're going to

look at is the senu span a and that's

the top of the cloud the green line that

you see right right there what that

represents is it takes the keinen the

red line there takes the

Tangen it adds it up divides it by two

and it's plotted 26 periods into the

future another unique aspect of this

indicator and what you want essentially

is price to be above the cloud very

simple very quick easy ichimoku stands

for At a Glance so what you can

basically do is essentially look at

Price where is it in relation to the

cloud is it above yes okay it's all

right to be entering a long position if

it's under as it is as it was here or

inside the cloud you do not want to be

holding a

position okay only when price breaks

above the cloud only when price is above

the moving averages here do you want to

be entering a position you also want to

look back in time to see where the chu

span is 26 periods in the past and then

finally the last part of this indicator

is the sish BAM B that's the lower part

of the cloud and what that does is it

takes the last 52 periods here the highs

the lows of the last 20 52 periods

divides that by two okay and projects it

26 periods into the future and that's

where you have that red line right there

we always want the sanus span a to be

above the S span B so the green line

above the red line and you'll get these

twists that takes place in the cloud so

you'll have a negative Cloud you have

this red negative Cloud here or a green

one now when we take a look at my

chart and let's take a look at that

chart I have it different colors here

but my green my tangin in is the green

one keinon is red cus span a is this

light colored blue and the purple one is

the sinus span B the 52 period and then

this is the chu span the white line what

I'm going to do now is just kind of go

through these uh you know country ETFs

and we're going to quickly assess

whether or not it makes sense to be

holding positions in these country

different countries okay now let's look

at we're going to look at the weekly

first uh so let's look at India India on

the weekly chart very strong chart you

can see it's still holding up there's

been a lot of interest in India now

especially with apple um you know

looking at India as a potential place to

manufacture you know an alternative to

China their phones and other companies

as well are doing the same

thing uh so India on the weekly looks

great let's look at the daily time frame

we did have this big drop here and again

they talked about that on the show that

the elections are starting to create

some volatility and you can see that

where price was above here it dropped

into the cloud and then we had this big

gap here and it continued so now it's

starting to look stronger for India it's

holding up um above the moving averages

that's what you want this is the ideal

situation let's look at the next one

South Korea on the weekly chart also

looks very bullish uh price is above the

tankenson the keinen it's above the

cloud we have a bullish Cloud here and

the chicu span is as you can see right

there is above this candle here the the

green

candle all right next let's take a look

look at eza this is South Africa it's

inside the cloud it's kind of in a

basically so one of the things that you

can take from this is that when price is

inside the cloud that's basically

usually a level of consolidation you

really want to wait for a breakout above

a prior High to to enter a long position

all right and so that's what we have

here a lot of um back and forth so it

tells us what's happening even when this

consolidation taking place you can see

that the cloud itself is relatively flat

it just started getting a little bullish

here where the SOS span a crossed above

the SOS span B all right here's another

one Brazil on the weekly chart is under

the cloud so one of the rules of

ichimoku you do not enter a long

position when price is under the cloud

or under the moving averages we got a

sell signal all the way back

here on this candle when price closed

under the the tankinson the green line

and since that point how far has it

dropped it has dropped and we're

measuring here I can click on this

little hover there and it will show us

on the right side here under the

measuring tool

17.25% so one of the advantages of

ichimoku is its ability to recognize um

potential cell signals and and buy

signals um and keep you out of stocks

that you shouldn't be

considering entering a long position in

essentially and that that's going to

save you a lot of money just that alone

you know if you for example look at the

chart briefly just check on it as a

filter use it as a filter really you

know you're thinking about entering a

long position in any stock or ETF okay

or maybe a currency or whatever you see

where price is in relation to the cloud

in relation to the moving averages and

then you say oh I'm not going to enter

this one it's under the cloud no thanks

ewj is for Japan Japan was doing well it

was above the tangens in last week but

look what's happened this week it's

dropped under so you know let's assume

that you were holding a position in

Japan in the Japanese ETF here you

entered when the tankenson crossed above

the keinon because you always want a

bullish crossover here you don't want to

enter long positions when the ten kinson

is under the red line there the green

you want when the green line is under

red you don't want to enter long

position but let's say you that entered

right here with the crossover took place

you held that position until this point

right there if you look to the left

actually there's a measuring tool that

will pop up uh as well at the bottom of

the Box let's measure that for a moment

you exit right there and you'll see it's

it was up

8.49 in 3.7

months okay

so right now you could have stayed out

of this for a bit you know all right

let's go to the next one THD this is

Thailand we got a sell signal on this

one all the way back

here and this has led as you can see if

I just hover there it's led to a 26.6 5%

drop that's huge so this is how you can

save yourself from headaches and here's

the thing you don't want to

basically um hold a position in a stock

for long extended periods of time it's

been over a year and a half now you know

it's been where price has been since um

since February 17th of 2023 you don't

want to like hold up your money you want

it to be in stocks and ETFs that have

high positive momentum anyway let's keep

going here eww this is

Mexico we got a sell signal here on May

24th that would have been the proper

time to

exit ewl Switzerland we're still holding

up on the weekly chart but but and and

one more thing I'll I'll say we we're

looking at the weekly chart right here

if you're a long-term investor that's

the chart time frame that you want to

look at when you're making your

decisions you can make them once per

week you know you can look at the charts

once a week on the weekends if you are

more active Trader you like to look at

your your stocks daily you switch it to

the Daily time frame and you can

basically make those same decisions

based on the same you know premise and

same rules on the daily chart so let's

say you enter here you exit here you

know for just 0.95% on the daily chart

of course when you get other sell

signals I talk about a lot of those on

my channel and uh you don't you can

always exit before price closes on the

tiet and those are the things I talk

about you may want to consider becoming

a member to find out more about that go

to my YouTube homepage here click on and

for more

links and you can become an exclusive

member only video by joining here to see

those exclusive member videos uh if you

like the software that I use it's called

tc2000 you can get a $25 discount

here and

um I also have this really cool um

Candlestick cheat sheet that I just

added to a post on my Twitter this tells

you a little bit more about how to read

Japanese candles and you can get that

for free by going on my Twitter account

shows you bearish candle patterns like

hanging man shooting star gravestone

dogee some really funny and and names

for these um specific types of U

patterns Candlestick patterns you can

find that on my Twitter account and you

can find that right there that link and

one more thing I'll advertise real quick

is I do use this uh landlord property

management software called inago it's

free I Rec recommend it check it out the

link you might be interested in that

okay let's get back to the

charts we were looking at Switzerland

looks good on the weekly but on the

daily we got a sell signal ewm is

Malaysia still holding up above the

moving averages

here on the daily time frame has broken

down you can see a crossover that took

place here you know you can see that

price closed under here came back above

you're going to get more false signals

on The Daily time frame because you're

going to it's just more active U but you

can also get out of a a stock a little

bit earlier to you know avoid bigger

losses let's see here flca for Canada

how's Canada doing on the weekly we had

a a closing candle here under the tensen

last week that would have been the

proper place to exit and you could have

saved yourself

1.56% United Kingdom has been dropping

we had a pattern here called a bearish

harami and uh that's this is what it

looks like it's a double candle

pattern and it's right here bearish

harami a big green candle followed by a

small red candle that's a warning that

there's a higher probability of a

decline in the market and that is

essentially what happened so there's

that bearish harami right there those

two candles and then it led to the um

decline here and now it's looks like it

just barely closed under tanket in there

UK all right let's go to and of course

on The Daily Time Fram is going to look

worse right we got the earlier signal

here some more false signals but okay

let's look at Ewa that's Australia this

one also today closed under there's

another one of those bearish haramis

that took place right here that led to

this

Decline and it's closed under tankenson

vaa

it looks like it might be holding up

right above this is vanguard's footsie

developed markets ETF comprised of

multiple developed Market you know

countes so this one is holding up a bit

on the daily time frame though it's

broken down so so one of the things I do

p on my channel if you check out some of

the other videos that I do um I cover

stocks like um Nvidia meta Microsoft

Google Apple Tesla all the Fab 8 there

sectors all all the sectors gold Bitcoin

you should definitely check out my prior

video I usually do the analysis at the

end of the show whatever show that

happens to be on

CNBC all right

next we were looking at vaa let's go

back to the uh there we are how about

Hong Kong on the weekly chart ooh does

not look good look at this big decline I

want you to think about that for a

moment look at this look at how long

this took look it it we had a exit and

this is why this this indicator is so

great

um look check this out we got a sell

signal right

here I can see that and that's that's

the thing once you get used to using

this uh indicator you'll see it very

just so instantly you'll know exactly

when you should have got out um and

right there price closed under the

tanket in the green line it led to this

decline here did do you see any other

buy points no price was always under

these moving averages or under the cloud

at one point right once it got under the

cloud right there that became even more

bearish and we're talking about a

decline folks of let me just hover there

41.2% wouldn't it have been nice to

avoid this big loss by the way that all

started on in June 11th of 2021

so you look at the weekly chart you see

prices under the moving averages you

don't even think about entering a long

position why because there's no momentum

behind it there are no buyers there are

no flows of money coming into this ETF

at that particular time different story

if you go back here to November 6th

2020 right we had a big move up you can

see how price was held up by the tanket

in above it the whole time right it

never closed under that level if we

measure from there to the this point

right there it was a

17.99% move up in approximately 7.1

months not

bad all right let's go to the next ETF

here this is one is for Spain this is

kind of fun because there's a lot of

international people watching my channel

so I like to occasionally do uh analysis

on the country

ETFs on the weekly chart it's been in a

very long run however we did get a sell

signal this week in ewp that's the ETF

for Spain so yeah I'd be exiting if I

was uh holding this position uh epu for

Peru same thing close under tanket and

we had a nice run here here's a perfect

example of where ichimoku would have

been a great way to make your trade work

for you with the entry point being right

here where price closed above the tenets

and the keyin and above the cloud

right um it

also you know uh so let's measure that

so from this point right here it

remained above the tenens in this whole

time we exit right here that's a 17.8%

move in 6 months for

Peru okay um and we got the exit this

Friday June

14th so I would I would probably take be

taking some

profits let's take a look at V okay this

is the European ETF Vanguard European

ETF you want to maybe have um more

diversity in the countries all of Europe

there you go this is a way one way to do

it this one is in fact holding up a

little bit right it's above the tanken

in still it's not a sell signal quite

yet but it's we've had a little

decline how about vnm this is

Vietnam we got a sell signal let me see

here um the last sell sign the last sell

signal was right

here because we actually did get a buy

point right there when price closed

above the cloud price was above the

moving averages

here um we did get a Buy Signal but it

didn't work out so you would have taken

a small loss price got back into the

cloud you exit your position for that

small loss versus holding it and

dropping and here's uh we're talking

about a measurement of it dropped about

25% % in 1.8 months from that point to

that

point all right

ewn is Netherlands looking very strong

right so the Netherlands ETF looks good

it was down 1.49% on Friday how about

Germany on the weekly charts now we're

just looking at weekly charts folks uh

Germany broke through you you heard uh

the the host talking about these country

ETFs how they've been performing I guess

politically there's some stuff going on

in Germany and it led to this big

decline here this is an exit

Point

ewi same thing this is

Italy right we had a cross over here we

had a buy point there um and the exit

you know just for 4 and a half% there

Greece recently they've been doing

pretty good this last year uh 2024 has

been pretty good um we had a Buy Signal

back on December

22nd a exit signal right there 3 and 1

half months later for 3.78% win over

here we had another Buy Signal now we

got another sell signal I probably would

have exited here when we got that

spinning top that's the kind of stuff I

talk about so when we get a closing

price under a reversal candle like the

one that you see right here you exit

Okay um the spinning top again again one

of

the candles bearish spinning top there

it is so good idea to try to memorize

these

patterns okay let's go to the next one

ewq is the last one and then I'm going

to do one um I'm going to do one

analysis for a ETF for one of my members

okay so ewq is

France guys wof

3.34% this a very negative candle it

just

dropped you know like like um like lead

in the ocean right um that was a big

drop we're talking about from this point

down to there 7.4% so on Monday the

opening price was right here this was

Friday that's a big drop 7 point 7% plus

and um I also use this other indicator

directional movement IND indicator when

the red line gets above the green line

that's a really bad sign that's what

happened

here that's a confirmation tool that I

use but I mainly make my decisions based

on

ichimoku now let's take a look at hack

what is hack this is an ETF for Prime

cyber

security um and if you want to invest in

cyber security stocks but you don't want

to invest in individual stocks just the

ETF this is one way to do it um this one

has had a nice run we had a buy point

back

here okay this took place on November

3rd 2023 and then we had an exit right

there for 19.94% or 20% in 4.4 months

then we had another couple of buy points

here you can see these two little

candles that didn't materialize into

anything it just dropped under we had

one more buy Point here that didn't

materialize into

anything um and then basically we now

what's happened is something really

negative on the weekly chart we we have

the tenin in the green line has crossed

under the red line so just based on that

you really don't want to be entering a

long position even if price closes above

both moving averages you really need to

wait for this

indicator okay to actually um cross

above it's got to come back up the red

line okay we need a

crossover so hack is not something I'd

be investing in has a long-term

investment let's look at the daily time

frame on The Daily time frame looks more

bullish uh it was up 48% on Friday you

can see here uh again this is for more

active Traders now one of the things you

want to probably wait for is for price

to if you're thinking about entering a

long position here uh you'll see back

here there's some resistance levels

right you get a a high here another high

here so that's a very strong level of

resistance let's find out what level I

would probably be thinking of uh if I

was just trading the daily time frame oh

one more thing I should mention the

cloud has not turn bullish here see how

the SOS ban a is under the SOS ban

B this is what you want you want that

lighter colored line above the purple

one we don't have that yet so on The

Daily I'd be holding off on this

one um if you get that crossover it

would make sense to enter a long

position here's another Reon I wouldn't

be entering a long position right now in

this um ETF we have a lower low here

than these lows right and so it's a

downtrend basically on The Daily you can

see here it's

um from this high it dropped here came

back right stayed about that level

dropped again Lower and could not break

through this this level right here so

that's what I'd be waiting to see I'd

want it to maybe come up find some

support at that prior resistance level

and then bounce and that would make more

sense to me by then the cloud should

have also moved up above the I'm sorry

the S span a should have moved up above

the S

banb

um so yeah that's going to do it for

this video hope you guys enjoyed it if

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next one

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