Trump Dalgaları Hız Kesmiyor!

Summary

The video discusses the fluctuating trends in global financial markets, focusing on American stocks, the impact of recent political events, and technological stocks like Nvidia. It highlights market movements caused by Nvidia’s chip ban and potential impacts of Trump’s influence on interest rates. The speaker explains macroeconomic reasoning behind Powell’s stance on interest rates and discusses the risks of overpricing in stocks like Nvidia. The market is predicted to remain volatile with short-term trades while long-term investments are advised with caution. A focus on crypto markets and their speculative nature is also emphasized, offering advice on positioning in these markets.

Takeaways

• 😀 The U.S. stock market remains volatile, with alternating good and bad news, and a sideways trend continuing.
• 😀 Cryptocurrencies have shown a slightly positive trend, but the overall market picture remains unclear. A clear breakout is needed for confirmation of a positive trend.
• 😀 Nvidia's stock price bubble has burst due to regulatory issues, particularly the U.S. chip ban, which led to significant drops in Nvidia's valuation.
• 😀 Former President Trump is pressuring Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, but Powell's decision to maintain rates is considered rational due to ongoing inflation concerns.
• 😀 Trump's trade policies are expected to have inflationary effects, and his actions could continue to influence market sentiment, especially in relation to tariffs and interest rates.
• 😀 Geopolitical events, such as Putin's announcement of a temporary ceasefire, have a short-term positive impact on markets, but long-term solutions seem unlikely.
• 😀 The U.S. retail sales report showed better-than-expected growth, suggesting the economy isn't cooling as rapidly as anticipated, which may influence future Fed decisions.
• 😀 Despite the recent market drops, the overall macroeconomic picture hasn't changed. There is still potential for further downside risk in the U.S. stock market.
• 😀 Nasdaq's critical 19,000 level remains a key point to monitor. A failure to break this level could lead to more selling pressure.
• 😀 Short-term traders should focus on volatility, trading on news and technical levels. Long-term investors should remain cautious, as the market is still not stable.

Q & A

What is the current state of the American stock market, according to the speaker?

The American stock market is experiencing a complex and mixed trend, with both positive and negative news affecting the market. The overall movement remains sideways, indicating a period of uncertainty and volatility.

How has the Nvidia chip ban impacted the stock market?

The Nvidia chip ban led to a sharp decline in Nvidia’s stock price, with the Nasdaq index also experiencing a significant drop. The ban is seen as a major factor in the recent volatility, especially as Nvidia announced a potential $5.5 billion loss due to the restrictions.

What are the speaker's thoughts on Nvidia’s stock price and market behavior?

The speaker expresses concerns about Nvidia's stock being overvalued, with a market bubble forming despite the company's strong products. The excessive optimism surrounding Nvidia is considered dangerous, creating systemic risks, especially for inexperienced investors.

What is the speaker’s opinion on Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve’s actions?

The speaker acknowledges that Jerome Powell has delayed interest rate cuts, but believes his decision to hold rates is rational in the face of inflation concerns. Powell’s resistance to cutting rates too soon is seen as necessary to prevent exacerbating inflation, especially given Trump’s economic policies.

How has Trump’s influence affected the markets, according to the speaker?

Trump’s influence on the markets has led to expectations of inflationary effects, particularly due to his tariff policies and economic moves. The speaker suggests that Trump’s actions may be shifting blame onto Powell for the market's instability, as Trump pushes for lower interest rates.

What geopolitical event was discussed in the transcript and what was its impact on the market?

The speaker mentions a ceasefire announcement from Putin during Paschal, which was seen as a positive development for the markets. However, the speaker remains cautious about the long-term resolution of geopolitical tensions, indicating that this is only a short-term positive development.

What does the speaker think about the current inflation expectations in the U.S.?

Inflation expectations are extremely high, with the University of Michigan’s data showing the highest one-year inflation expectation since 1981. The speaker notes that this high expectation makes it unwise for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates too soon, as it could worsen inflation.

How does the speaker view the short-term trading opportunities in the market?

The speaker suggests that short-term trading opportunities still exist, especially within the range-bound movements of the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones indices. Traders are advised to take advantage of fluctuations within these bands, but caution is needed due to the overall bearish market sentiment.

What is the speaker’s view on long-term investments in 2025?

The speaker advises against making long-term investments in 2025, as the market remains too volatile and uncertain. Instead, they recommend more dynamic, short-term trading strategies, as the environment does not yet support stable, long-term portfolio construction.

What does the speaker say about the potential for cryptocurrency market growth?

The speaker mentions a positive trend in cryptocurrencies, particularly Bitcoin, but stresses that the market is still uncertain. For a more sustained bullish trend, Bitcoin needs to close above the 86,446 level. However, the overall sentiment remains cautious with the speaker observing the potential for a correction.