Nifty 25,000 A Distant Dream? | CA Rachana Ranade

Summary

In this lively stream, Rashna discusses current market trends, focusing on the reasons behind the market's stagnation despite positive indicators. She explains the concept of block deals and their impact on market liquidity, highlighting the potential role of IPOs in sucking up liquidity. She also touches on various parameters, such as quarterly results, geopolitical factors, and technical analysis, while providing valuable insights into market levels and key breakout points. Rashna offers practical advice on combining both technical and fundamental analysis for better stock selection, all while engaging with her viewers and answering their questions.

Takeaways

• 😀 The live stream is happening earlier than usual at 6 PM due to a request from the host's son, who predicted low viewership during a 9 PM stream due to a cricket match.
• 😀 The market is currently in a sideways zone, with little movement since May 12th, and there has been no major volatility during the monthly expiry.
• 😀 Despite positive parameters like quarterly results, FII buying, and stable geopolitical situations, the market is struggling to break out due to liquidity concerns.
• 😀 Block deals (large transactions between two parties) are contributing to liquidity drying up in the market, as money from these deals is not always reinvested in the stock market.
• 😀 Block deals occur in a special trading window between 9:15 to 9:50 AM and involve significant shares being traded between two parties who already agree on a price.
• 😀 There have been several high-value block deals in May, including in companies like ITC, Indigo, and Bharti Airtel, which have further impacted market liquidity.
• 😀 IPOs often hit the market during bullish phases and can absorb liquidity, leading to market slowdowns or peaks as more IPOs are launched.
• 😀 Current IPOs include Leela Hotels, Aegis OPEC, Prostar, and Scoda, with more anticipated in the near future, further absorbing market liquidity.
• 😀 The market is currently stuck between key support and resistance levels (24,500 and 25,100), and the next major hurdle is breaking above the 25,100 to 25,200 range.
• 😀 If the market breaks above these levels, it could potentially rally toward previous all-time highs of 26,300, but the exact timing remains uncertain.
• 😀 The host's upcoming live event in Nashik, which will be their first event in Marathi, is almost sold out, and the team encourages viewers to attend for further learning opportunities.

Q & A

Why did Rashna change the timing of the live stream to 6:00 PM?

Rashna changed the live stream timing because her son suggested that at 9:00 PM, people would be more focused on the RCV qualifiers, and fewer would attend her stream. Additionally, she had a plan to spend time with her son's friends who were coming over for a game at home.

What factors are currently influencing the market's stagnation?

The market is currently stuck due to a combination of block deals, IPOs, and liquidity drying up. Despite no major negative news in terms of quarterly results or geopolitical factors, these elements are preventing the market from breaking out of its sideways movement.

What is a block deal and how does it affect the market?

A block deal is a large transaction involving two parties, such as FIs, DIs, or promoters, who mutually agree on a price. These deals occur within a special trading window, usually between 9:15 AM and 9:50 AM, and they can reduce market liquidity if the money isn't reinvested back into the market.

Why can block deals lead to reduced market liquidity?

Block deals often involve large sums of money being transferred between institutions or promoters, and if the proceeds from the sale are not reinvested into the stock market, it results in a liquidity drain. This can act as a barrier to further market growth.

What impact do IPOs have on market trends?

IPOs tend to hit the market when the market is showing bullish signs. However, when IPOs flood the market, they can absorb liquidity and sometimes mark the peak of a market rally, causing the market to stall or even decline.

What are some recent IPOs mentioned in the live stream?

Recent IPOs mentioned include Leela Hotels, Aegis OPEC, Prostar, Scoda, and potentially Reliance Go later this year.

What are the key resistance levels for the Nifty index?

The key resistance levels for Nifty are at 25,100 to 25,200 on the upper side. If Nifty manages to break above this range, it could move towards its previous all-time high of 26,300.

What does Rashna recommend for those wanting to improve their stock market knowledge?

Rashna recommends attending her live event in Nashik this Sunday, as well as enrolling in her courses on fundamental and technical analysis. She also shares a discount code (C A R R YT) for anyone interested in her courses.

What role does fundamental analysis play in stock selection, according to Rashna?

Rashna emphasizes that fundamental analysis is crucial for selecting stocks, as it helps identify strong stocks. Technical analysis, however, is used to determine the right time to enter the market. She advocates giving more weight to fundamentals over technicals.

How should investors approach small-cap stocks, as mentioned in the live stream?

Investors should be cautious with small-cap stocks because they come with higher risk. While they may offer higher returns, they also have greater volatility. It’s important to carefully evaluate their fundamentals before investing.