Why GDP is good for authoritarian China | MIT's Yasheng Huang, NEXTChina Conference 2023 keynote

Summary

In this engaging conversation, Yashom Huang discusses his book *The Rise and Fall of the East*, exploring the political culture and historical forces shaping contemporary China. He draws parallels between China's ancient civil service exam system and modern GDP metrics, emphasizing their role in creating stability and legitimacy in autocratic regimes. Huang warns of a shift toward a more militaristic autocracy in China, driven by economic slowdowns and ideological decline, with potential complications arising from succession challenges. His analysis offers a thought-provoking look at the future trajectory of Chinese politics under Xi Jinping.

Takeaways

• 😀 The discussion centers around Yasham Huang's book 'The Rise and Fall of the East,' which delves into the forces shaping modern China and its political culture.
• 😀 The book explores China's political culture, highlighting the challenges in understanding Chinese politics, particularly under Xi Jinping.
• 😀 Yasham Huang emphasizes that his work identifies the historical and cultural forces that influence contemporary Chinese governance, not through Confucianism but through mechanisms like the civil service exam.
• 😀 Huang's book links the tradition of China's civil service exam system, established in the 6th century, to the stability, technology, and economic growth of modern China.
• 😀 The modern equivalent of the civil service exam is argued to be China's GDP metric, as both function as performance measures and sources of legitimacy.
• 😀 The consistency of metrics, like GDP, is vital for autocratic systems, providing a way to promote the right individuals and justify authority.
• 😀 While the GDP system has been criticized, Huang points out that alternative metrics could lead to more problematic systems based on loyalty and ideological commitment rather than performance.
• 😀 Huang fears that the decline of ideology and slowing economic growth in China might push the country towards a more militaristic form of autocracy, similar to historical regimes in Latin America.
• 😀 He suggests that China's political future could become increasingly complex, with potential challenges related to autocracy and leadership succession issues.
• 😀 Huang concludes with a cautionary note about the possible future direction of China, acknowledging that while he doesn’t have a crystal ball, the scenario he describes is a cause for concern.

Q & A

What is the central theme of Yashom Huang's book, 'The Rise and Fall of the East'?

The central theme of Yashom Huang's book is to explore the historical forces that shaped contemporary China, particularly its political culture, and to offer a prognosis for China's future under Xi Jinping's leadership. It focuses on understanding Chinese politics and the dynamics that defy easy explanation.

How does the book link the civil service exam system to modern China?

The book draws a parallel between the traditional civil service exam system and the modern metrics used in China. Huang argues that the system of evaluating individuals through objective measures, like exam scores, shaped Chinese society and is mirrored today by performance metrics like GDP.

What does Huang mean by the 'modern equivalent of the kuju'?

Huang refers to GDP as the modern equivalent of the kuju (the civil service exam) in that both are systems of performance measurement. The GDP metric serves a similar function in modern China by evaluating and promoting individuals based on economic performance.

Why does Huang believe GDP is a better metric for autocracy than other systems?

Huang argues that GDP is the most consistent and objective metric available for an autocracy, as it provides measurable results and legitimacy. Without such a system, other forms of governance like loyalty to the ruler or ideological campaigns might take over, leading to less consistent outcomes.

What are the risks Huang foresees as China's economic growth slows down?

Huang worries that as economic growth declines and ideology loses its influence, China may shift toward a more militaristic autocracy, similar to some Latin American regimes. This could lead to internal complications and a more unstable political environment, especially with challenges surrounding leadership succession.

How does Huang view the role of ideology in modern Chinese governance?

Huang expresses concern that the decline of ideology in China, combined with slowing economic growth, could weaken the legitimacy of the autocratic system. He suggests that when economic growth and ideology decline, the system might turn towards other more unstable or militaristic forms of governance.

What does Huang imply about the importance of consistency in governance?

Huang emphasizes that consistency in governance, through objective metrics like GDP, is crucial for maintaining stability and legitimacy in an autocracy. Without a clear and consistent measure, governance risks becoming arbitrary or driven by factors like loyalty and ideology, which could lead to instability.

What role does the local government’s behavior play in Huang’s argument about GDP?

Huang points out that the misconduct and undesirable behavior of local officials in China highlights the weaknesses of relying solely on metrics like GDP. He suggests that without a strong, consistent system to hold officials accountable, the system can become dysfunctional.

Why does Huang fear the future of China's political system?

Huang fears that China is heading towards a more militaristic autocracy due to the decline of ideology and the slowing of economic growth. He worries that these changes, coupled with leadership succession issues, will make China's political system more complicated and potentially unstable.

How does Huang’s perspective on China's autocracy differ from traditional views on Confucianism?

Unlike traditional views that focus on Confucianism as a defining feature of China’s political culture, Huang focuses on the mechanisms of governance, such as the cultivation of human capital through systems like the civil service exam. He sees the past not through the lens of Confucian values but through practical systems like the exam system and performance metrics.