Are Long Term Holders Now Selling Bitcoin?

Summary

In 2025, Bitcoin is showing strong signs of growth despite a shaky start, with the price surpassing $100,000. Analyzing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders reveals a trend of profit-taking, but the overall long-term supply continues to rise as holders remain committed. Key metrics like the spend output profit ratio and hodl waves highlight market cycles, showing that significant Bitcoin distribution often coincides with market peaks. While there’s a slight decrease in long-term holders' supply, the market remains healthy, suggesting further growth is possible as new investors continue to enter and accumulate Bitcoin.

Takeaways

• 😀 Bitcoin is showing signs of a strong 2025, with price reaching new highs and some signs of profit-taking from long-term investors.
• 😀 The spend output profit ratio chart suggests that some Bitcoin investors are realizing profits as the price climbs.
• 😀 Long-term Bitcoin holders are increasing their BTC holdings, indicating a reluctance to sell despite recent price increases.
• 😀 Bitcoin's long-term holder supply is growing, with wallets holding BTC for over 155 days showing a significant increase.
• 😀 Bitcoin hodl waves data shows cyclical behavior of long-term holders, with holding periods shortening during bull markets and lengthening during bear markets.
• 😀 Recent decreases in Bitcoin held by long-term holders suggest that short-term holders are becoming long-term holders rather than significant selling.
• 😀 Using Bitcoin Magazine Pro's API, the rate of distribution by long-term holders can be analyzed, providing insights into market cycles.
• 😀 The rate of change in Bitcoin held by long-term investors shows a pattern of major market cycle peaks and local bottoms.
• 😀 The 2020 and 2021 cycles demonstrated that a decrease in long-term holder BTC coincided with market tops, while accumulation spikes indicated market bottoms.
• 😀 Despite some minor profit-taking, the long-term holder sell-off remains at sustainable levels, indicating no immediate cause for concern in the Bitcoin price action.
• 😀 Monitoring the actions of long-term Bitcoin investors helps predict market sentiment and price action, as they tend to buy during lows and sell during highs, in contrast to short-term investors.

Q & A

What is the current trend in Bitcoin’s price as of 2025?

Bitcoin has shown signs of recovery after a shaky start to 2025, with the price recently reclaiming a new all-time high around $100,000.

What is the Spend Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) and what does it indicate?

The SOPR is a metric that tracks the amount of profit Bitcoin investors are realizing. An increase in this ratio indicates that more investors are taking profits, while a decrease suggests they are holding onto their BTC.

What does the rise in Bitcoin held by long-term holders signify?

The increase in Bitcoin held by long-term holders (those with BTC for over 155 days) indicates that these investors are not selling, showing confidence in Bitcoin’s future.

Why is the data from Bitcoin Hodl Waves important?

Bitcoin Hodl Waves tracks the distribution of Bitcoin based on how long it has been held. It provides insights into the behaviors of both short-term and long-term holders, helping investors understand market cycles.

How do Bitcoin market cycles relate to long-term holders’ behavior?

Long-term holders typically sell their Bitcoin during market peaks and buy during market lows. This cyclical behavior helps indicate when the market may be at a top or bottom.

What is the significance of short-term holders turning into long-term holders?

When short-term holders turn into long-term holders (holding for more than six months), it signifies that these investors have become more confident in Bitcoin's long-term value, contributing to the increase in long-term holder supply.

What does a decrease in long-term holder supply imply for Bitcoin’s price?

A decrease in long-term holder supply could indicate that long-term holders are selling, which is often associated with market cycle peaks. This can suggest a potential price correction or consolidation.

Is there cause for concern with the minor distribution from long-term holders?

There is no immediate cause for concern. While long-term holders are slightly distributing Bitcoin, the levels of distribution are still sustainable, and it is typical during a market rally.

How does the Bitcoin market compare to previous cycles in terms of distribution?

In past cycles, distribution from long-term holders typically occurred at market peaks, while accumulation occurred during market bottoms. This pattern appears to be repeating in the current market.

What role do new market participants play in Bitcoin's price movement?

New market participants tend to buy during market highs and sell during market lows, often leading to less favorable investment outcomes. This contrasts with the behavior of long-term holders, who usually do the opposite.