Can Europe Go It Alone? | Former Supreme Allied Commander, NATO

Summary

In this insightful conversation, General Philip Breedlove, former NATO Supreme Allied Commander, discusses Europe's defense capabilities amid growing concerns over a potential U.S. retreat. He highlights the current state of Russia’s military, the crucial role of U.S. military capabilities, and Europe’s dependence on American support, particularly in areas like aerial transport, intelligence, and command control. Breedlove addresses Europe’s efforts to bolster defense spending, the strategic role of countries like Poland, and the shifting dynamics of deterrence against Russia. He emphasizes the need for credibility in deterrence to prevent further Russian aggression.

Takeaways

• 😀 Europe heavily depends on the United States for critical defense capabilities, including aerial transport, intelligence gathering, and precision strikes.
• 😀 Despite Russia’s military losses, including the death of over 400,000 soldiers, it remains a significant threat to Europe.
• 😀 NATO’s credibility in deterring Russia is currently weak, and this presents a major concern for Europe’s security.
• 😀 While Europe has made progress in strengthening its defense, it faces challenges in matching the U.S. in terms of advanced military technologies and strategic capabilities.
• 😀 The cost of Europe replacing the defense capabilities provided by the U.S. is estimated at over a trillion dollars and would take about 25 years.
• 😀 European nations like Poland, Finland, and the Baltic states are taking extreme measures such as withdrawing from landmine treaties and requesting nuclear weapons on their soil in response to Russia's aggression.
• 😀 Poland plays a key role in Europe’s defense strategy due to its strategic location and its significant military investments.
• 😀 The Baltic nations face particular vulnerabilities due to their geography and have emphasized the need for landmines as a deterrent in case of Russian invasion.
• 😀 NATO has strong conventional deterrence within its borders but lacks effective deterrence beyond its boundaries, especially in regions involved in hybrid warfare.
• 😀 The strategic importance of countries like Finland, Poland, and Romania in Europe’s defense is increasing, with these nations strengthening their military capabilities to counter Russian threats.

Q & A

How much does Europe depend on the United States for its defense?

Europe depends on the United States for critical defense capabilities, including strategic aerial transport, advanced intelligence gathering, and precision strike capabilities. While Europe has some military strength, the U.S. provides essential enablers that give European defense forces the technological edge, such as long-range precision fires, advanced command and control systems, and stealth aircraft.

What are the current challenges faced by the Russian military according to General Breedlove?

The Russian military is currently severely weakened. It has suffered significant losses, including around 400,000 soldiers and substantial damage to its equipment. General Breedlove highlights that Russia’s army is no longer at its peak and is not as formidable as it once seemed.

What role does the U.S. play in Europe’s defense capabilities beyond traditional ground forces?

The U.S. plays a crucial role in enabling Europe’s defense through aerial transport, advanced intelligence gathering platforms, and precision strike capabilities. Additionally, U.S. technology such as the Global Hawk and RC-135 aircraft provides critical intelligence and operational support, which Europe lacks in terms of scale and capacity.

Why is it difficult for Europe to replace the U.S. in defense spending and capabilities?

Replacing the U.S. in terms of defense capabilities would be an enormous challenge for Europe. A report estimates it would take Europe up to a trillion dollars and 25 years to match the U.S.'s capabilities. This is because many European nations have had a long period of reduced defense spending, and the procurement process for advanced military systems takes considerable time and resources.

What is General Breedlove’s opinion on European nations' defense investments?

General Breedlove sees positive progress in European nations’ defense investments. He notes that while some countries still lack appropriate movement in terms of defense priorities, most capitals are now prioritizing investments in readiness and long-term defense capabilities. He highlights that nations like Poland and Finland are making significant strides.

What is the significance of the landmine withdrawal by Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States?

The withdrawal from the international treaty banning landmines by Poland, Finland, and the Baltic States is seen as a defensive measure against the Russian threat. These nations, particularly along the eastern flank, are considering the use of landmines to slow down any potential Russian military advances, given the region’s difficult geography and the strategic importance of defense readiness.

How does Poland’s request for nuclear weapons relate to its defense strategy?

Poland’s request for the positioning of nuclear weapons on its soil reflects its concerns about the reliability of the U.S. as a partner in its defense. The request aligns with the increasing tension around NATO’s defense strategy and Poland’s desire to secure its sovereignty against a potential Russian threat. This is in line with the broader trend of nations like South Korea and Japan considering nuclear deterrence.

What is General Breedlove’s view on NATO’s credibility in deterring Russian aggression?

General Breedlove believes that while NATO has the capability to deter Russian aggression, it currently lacks the credibility needed to effectively deter Russia. He emphasizes the importance of establishing deterrence in conventional and hybrid warfare domains, particularly outside of NATO’s direct borders.

What role does Poland play in Europe’s defense strategy, according to General Breedlove?

Poland plays a central role in Europe’s defense strategy, particularly as a key military player in the north. Poland has steadily invested in military capabilities and is positioned to inflict significant damage on Russia. General Breedlove also notes that Poland serves as a leading force in strengthening NATO’s defense posture.

How should the West view the potential threat from Russia, given its military and economic challenges?

Although Russia is facing significant military and economic challenges, including the loss of many soldiers and a weakened economy, General Breedlove cautions that deterrence is about perception. He warns that the West must restore its credibility in deterring Russian aggression, particularly in non-NATO regions and hybrid warfare scenarios, where deterrence has historically been weak.