Why Ethereum is the Best Crypto to Buy Now

Summary

This video delves into the US Federal Reserve's current policies, particularly focusing on the gradual slowdown of quantitative tightening (QT) and its implications for the markets. The speaker predicts that a recession could be averted if the Fed pauses QT by Q4 2025, while discussing the potential for a 'stealth' QE through global liquidity indices. The video also highlights the speaker's bullish stance on Ethereum, forecasting its price to reach $10,000 to $12,000 by mid-2026, driven by the ETH/BTC ratio. The speaker maintains a long-term investment strategy in Ethereum, confident in its future potential despite short-term challenges.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Federal Reserve has reduced its monthly Treasury securities selloff to $5 billion, the lowest level before halting quantitative tightening (QT) completely.
• 😀 The next FOMC meetings are crucial, with some analysts predicting QT may end by mid-2025, but the latest potential deadline for a pause is Q4 2025.
• 😀 If QT isn't paused by August or September 2025, there is a risk of a recession or credit event, which could lead to a market crash.
• 😀 The Federal Reserve may not officially announce quantitative easing (QE) until interest rates reach 0%, but signs of stealth QE can be tracked by monitoring global liquidity indices.
• 😀 The end of QT could signal a shift in the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio, which historically has been a key indicator for buying Ethereum.
• 😀 The speaker's Ethereum price prediction remains $10,000 to $12,000 by mid-2026, based on the expected performance of Ethereum relative to Bitcoin in the next altcoin cycle.
• 😀 The speaker no longer plans to sell all their Ethereum by the end of 2025, choosing to wait until at least Q2 or Q3 of 2026 for a more favorable market environment.
• 😀 The current market conditions, influenced by tight liquidity, are causing all altcoins to lag behind, but Ethereum is seen as the most important altcoin with long-term potential.
• 😀 The speaker dismisses short-term crypto narratives often seen on platforms like Twitter, arguing that Ethereum’s potential is still strong despite recent underperformance.
• 😀 The speaker continues to hold a large percentage of Ethereum in their portfolio (22%) and plans to add more when global liquidity conditions improve.

Q & A

What is the significance of the Federal Reserve slowing down the runoff of Treasury securities?

The Federal Reserve's decision to slow down the runoff of Treasury securities to just $5 billion per month signals that they are nearing the point of pausing Quantitative Tightening (QT). This suggests that a shift in monetary policy could be imminent, possibly leading to a pause in QT or even a pivot to Quantitative Easing (QE).

When is the most likely time for the Federal Reserve to pause Quantitative Tightening (QT)?

The most likely time for the Fed to pause QT is by Q4 of 2025, around September to October. However, the next FOMC meetings in May, June, and July 2025 could signal that QT might pause sooner, depending on economic conditions.

Why is there a strong belief that a recession could happen by August 2025?

A recession could happen by August 2025 if the Federal Reserve does not intervene and pause QT. Most macro analysts agree that by August, the markets will have deteriorated to the point that a recession will either occur or be inevitable, necessitating emergency actions from the Fed.

How does the concept of 'stealth QE' relate to the Federal Reserve's policy actions?

The concept of 'stealth QE' refers to a situation where the Fed pauses QT without publicly announcing a new QE program. The Fed may not officially start increasing the balance sheet again but could still be injecting liquidity into the market through other means. Monitoring global liquidity indices is crucial to detect these indirect actions.

Why is the speaker confident that Ethereum (ETH) will reach $10,000 or more by the end of the current crypto cycle?

The speaker's confidence comes from the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio, which is expected to rise as the market enters a bull phase. If Bitcoin reaches $200,000 and ETH's BTC ratio rises to 0.05, Ethereum could hit $10,000. The speaker believes this is achievable based on historical altcoin market patterns and Fibonacci retracement levels.

What are the key factors that will influence Ethereum's performance in the crypto market?

Ethereum's performance will largely depend on the Bitcoin cycle, global liquidity conditions, and the Ethereum to Bitcoin (ETH/BTC) ratio. A strong altcoin market driven by Bitcoin's growth and favorable liquidity conditions should support Ethereum’s price increase.

Why does the speaker believe that Ethereum’s potential has not been fully realized yet?

The speaker believes Ethereum's potential has not been fully realized because liquidity conditions are still tight, which has been dragging down altcoins like Ethereum. Once liquidity conditions improve, Ethereum’s true potential will become evident, and its price will rise accordingly.

What is the timeline the speaker now expects for Ethereum's bull market?

The speaker expects Ethereum’s bull market to extend until at least Q2 or Q3 2026. This adjustment is based on a longer Bitcoin cycle that is predicted to last until mid-2026, which will likely extend the altcoin cycle as well.

Why does the speaker believe that Ethereum is the most important altcoin in the crypto space?

Ethereum is considered the most important altcoin because of its foundational role in the crypto ecosystem. The speaker argues that Ethereum's success is crucial for the success of other altcoins and that it must perform well in this cycle to demonstrate the long-term potential of altcoins in general.

What is the speaker’s current Ethereum holding in their portfolio and their future plans for it?

The speaker currently holds 22% of their portfolio in Ethereum and plans to add more as global liquidity conditions improve. They have been an Ethereum bull for the past five years and intend to continue holding and adding to their Ethereum position until they are proven wrong by market events.