What lies ahead for the global economy in 2024? | Counting the Cost

Summary

「カウンティング・ザ・コスト」では、世界経済の今後の展望が議論されました。2024年には、国際貿易の減速、債務の増大、インフレーション、高い金利が続きますが、中国はデフレーションに苦しんでおり、成長と需要の減少が世界経済にどのような影響を及ぼすかが焦点です。また、イスラエルとガザの戦争が運送コストに影響を与えていますが、石油価格は変動しませんでした。2023年に予想された世界的な不況は避けられましたが、主要な経済は金利を引き上げ、インフレーションをコントロールしようとしています。2024年の経済動向について、各専門家が見解を共有しています。

Takeaways

• 🌐 2024年の世界経済は、国際貿易の減速、債務の高まり、インフレーション、高い金利という多面的な課題に直面している。
• 📉 中国はデフレーションに苦しむ一方で、価格が下がり続けており、成長と需要の減緩が世界経済にどのような影響を及ぼすかが問題となっている。
• 🚀 アメリカ経済は2023年第三四半期に5.2％の成長を記録し、最も急速なペースを記録したが、インフレーションと高い金利は引き続き多くの地域で主要な問題となっている。
• 🏦 アメリカ連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）は、2022年3月以来11回の金利引き上げを行った後、インフレーションを緩和するための措置をとっている。
• 🔄 中国はデフレーションという逆の現象に直面しており、国内の需要が若者の高失業率と不動産危機によって弱まっている。
• 🔍 IMFは、アメリカと中国を中心にするパワーブロックの分断が、世界総出力を何兆ドルも奪うリスクがあると警告している。
• 🛑 中東地域の緊張が高まり、特にガザ戦争が続いているが、原油価格に直接影响はなかったため、輸送コストの懸念が高まっている。
• 📊 2023年は経済予測を裏切る驚きの年であり、中央銀行は今後数ヶ月で金利カットを検討している。
• 🌳 中国の不動産市場は深刻な危機にあり、市場信頼の回復には時間がかかると見られている。
• 🛣️ 中国の「一帯一路」イニシアチブは、イタリアの脱退にもかかわらず、新たに発展途上国への追加の融資を提供し、将来も継続する可能性がある。
• 🛳️ ガザ戦争による船舶脅威が保険コストを高め、インド洋貿易ルートの地政学的リスクを高めている。

Q & A

2024年の世界経済の見通しは何ですか？

2024年の世界経済の見通しとして、国際貿易の減速、債務水準の上昇、高インフレ、高金利が挙げられます。また、中国のデフレ問題やイスラエルとガザの戦争の経済的影響が懸念されています。

2023年の世界経済はどうなりましたか？

2023年には広範な世界的な景気後退が予測されていましたが、主要経済は堅調に推移しました。特に米国経済は第三四半期に5.2%の成長を遂げました。

米国連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の利上げの影響は何ですか？

FRBは2022年3月から11回利上げを行い、インフレを抑制しました。インフレは40年ぶりの高水準から緩和されています。

中国の経済問題は何ですか？

中国はデフレ、国内需要の低迷、高い若年失業率、不動産危機などの経済問題に直面しています。

BRICS諸国の役割は何ですか？

BRICS諸国、特にブラジルとインドは、今後の世界経済において重要な役割を果たします。これらの国々は、エネルギー市場や地政学的に重要な位置にあります。

2024年のインフレの見通しはどうなっていますか？

2024年にはインフレが低下する見通しです。中国のデフレが世界に影響を与え、インフレの抑制に寄与する可能性があります。

中国の不動産市場の問題は何ですか？

中国の不動産市場は長期にわたる不況に直面しており、政府の対策が不十分とされています。不動産バブルの崩壊は、日本の1990年代や米国の2007年の例と同様、回復には時間がかかると予測されています。

米中の経済的なデカップリングの現状はどうなっていますか？

実際には、米中の経済的なデカップリングは進んでいません。貿易赤字は依然として大きく、中国からの輸入は続いています。

石油価格の低下の影響は何ですか？

石油価格の低下は製造業やエネルギー集約型産業にとって良いニュースです。しかし、高金利や中国の経済問題が成長の足かせとなっています。

2024年のヨーロッパの経済見通しはどうですか？

ヨーロッパの経済成長は停滞しており、エネルギー依存の減少がドイツの製造業に大きな影響を与えています。エネルギー価格の低下が製造業の回復に寄与する可能性がありますが、全体としては弱い見通しです。

Outlines

00:00

🌐 世界経済の展望と中国のデフレーション問題

アドリアン・フィニガンがホストを務める「カウンティング・ザ・コスト」では、世界経済の現状と2024年の展望が議論されています。国際貿易の減速、債務の増大、インフレーションと金利の高騰が続き、しかし中国はデフレーションと価格の下落に苦しんでいます。中国の成長と需要の減少が世界経済にどのような影響を与えるかが焦点です。また、イスラエルとガザの戦争が運送コストに影響を与えていますが、石油価格には直接影响は見られませんでした。2023年に予想された世界的な不況は回避され、主要な経済は金利を引き上げてインフレーションをコントロールしようとしています。

05:01

📉 アメリカの金利固定と中国のインフラ投資

アメリカでは30年間の固定金利で借入されていた家屋ローンが、金利の上昇にもかかわらず影響を少なくしました。また、COVID-19の経済対策による現金支援が、予想以上の長期にわたって経済に貢献しています。中国はインフラ開発のための財政刺激策を推進し、2024年のインフラ投資が急増する見通しです。これにより、中国経済は回復し、消費者支出が増加すると予想されます。

10:01

🌍 新興市場と中国の影響力拡大

新興市場のBRICS諸国、特にブラジルとインドは、世界経済においてますます重要性が高まっています。ブラジルはエネルギー大国として次の原資源サイクルの恩恵を受け力図る一方、インドは中国と対立するwestern Powersとして注目されています。また、中国のベルトとロードイニシアティブは、より柔軟で選択的なプロジェクトに焦点を当てながら、特にアジア、アフリカ、中東での再生可能エネルギー開発に力を入れています。

15:02

🏭 中国の不動産市場の現状と欧州経済

中国の不動産市場は深刻な状況にあり、市場は回復するまでに長い時間を要することが予想されています。これに対して、欧州経済はロシアからのエネルギー依存度を減らすための代償を支払っており、特にドイツの産業が影響を受けています。しかし、エネルギー価格の下落により、欧州経済は徐々に回復する可能性があります。

20:03

🛑 中東地域の油需給とOPEC+の対応

中国や欧州の需要が減少し、アメリカの産油量が増加する中、OPEC+は価格を維持しようとする減産措置を続けていますが、効果は限定的です。アメリカのシャリ油産業の復活により、OPEC+の市場シェアは低下しています。一方、中国の経済成長の減緩は、原油価格に影響を与える可能性がありますが、市場はこれを受け入れています。

25:05

🚢 航路の安全保障と原油価格への影響

イスラエルとガザの戦争が引き起こした航路の安全保障問題は、保険コストの増加と海洋運送業界のリスクプレミアムの上昇を招きました。しかし、原油価格には直接影响は見られず、市場はこれらの事件を価格に反映しています。しかし、もし衝突が拡大し、ホルムズ海峡などが遮断された場合、原油価格は劇的に上昇する可能性があります。

📚 番組の締めくくりとオンラインリソース

アドリアン・フィニガンが番組を締めくくり、番組の感想やコメントを視聴者からのフィードバックとして歓迎します。また、オンラインで番組の個別の報告やエピソードにアクセスできるリンクを提供しています。

Keywords

💡国際貿易の減速

国際貿易の減速とは、世界各国間での商品やサービスの取引が前年度比で減少することを指します。このビデオでは、国際貿易の減速が世界経済に与える影響について触れており、特に中国のデフレーションや成長減速が世界的に波及する可能性について解説しています。

💡デフレーション

デフレーションは、物価が継続的に下がることを指しており、経済成長の減速や需要の低迷が原因で起こることがあります。ビデオでは、中国がデフレーションに苦しめられている状況や、それが世界経済に及ぼす影響について触れています。

💡インフレ

インフレとは物価の総じた上昇を意味し、経済全体の価格レベルの高騰を表します。ビデオでは、世界経済においてインフレが依然として問題となっていること、特にアメリカやヨーロッパ中央銀行がインフレを抑制するために利上げを行っていることが言及されています。

💡利上げ

利上げは、中央銀行が金利を上げることを指し、インフレの抑制や金融政策の引き締めに使われます。ビデオでは、アメリカ連邦準備制度理事会（FED）や欧州中央銀行が利上げを行っており、それが経済に与える影響について解説しています。

💡中国経済

中国経済は、世界第二の経済規模を有しており、世界経済に大きな影響を与えるとされています。ビデオでは、中国経済の成長減速や不動産市場の低迷、それにデカップリングの影響がどのように世界経済に影響を及ぼすかについて触れています。

💡デカップリング

デカップリングとは、経済的な相互依存関係を減らすことを指し、特にアメリカと中国の経済関係の変化がビデオのテーマの一つとなっています。アメリカが中国経済との疎外を進めることによって、世界経済の構造がどのように変化するかが議論されています。

💡OPECプラス

OPECプラスは、OPEC（石油輸出国機構）とロシアを中心とする非OPEC産油国による協力機構です。ビデオでは、OPECプラスが生産量を減らして価格を維持しようとしているが、アメリカの産油量の増加で市場シェアを失っている状況について触れています。

💡石油価格

石油価格は、世界経済にとって重要なインパクトを持つ基本的なエネルギー価格です。ビデオでは、ガザ戦争の影響やOPECプラスの生産量調整が石油価格に与える影響について言及されており、それが世界経済にどのように影響するかが解説されています。

💡中国の新シルクロードイニシアティブ

中国の新シルクロードイニシアティブは、中国が推進する多国間のインフラ開発プロジェクトです。ビデオでは、イタリアの離脱にもかかわらず、このイニシアティブが継続され、特に再生可能エネルギー分野でのプロジェクトに重点を置くことが示唆されています。

💡中国の不動産市場

中国の不動産市場は、経済成長の大きな障壁となっています。ビデオでは、不動産市場の低迷が中国経済全体に与える影響や、政府が市場復興を図る取り組みがどのように進んでいるかについて触れています。

Highlights

Global economy faces challenges such as international trade slowdown, high debt levels, and high inflation rates.

China is experiencing deflation with falling prices, affecting global growth and demand.

Despite predictions, major economies have managed to avoid a global recession in 2023 by raising interest rates to control inflation.

US economy saw a 5.2% expansion in the third quarter, the fastest pace in nearly two years.

Inflation and high interest rates remain significant issues in many parts of the world.

The US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank held interest rates steady in December 2022, signaling a halt to rate hikes.

China's deflation is attributed to weakened domestic demand due to high youth unemployment and a property crisis.

The IMF warns of economic fragmentation into power blocks centered around the US and China, risking trillions of dollars in global output.

China's share of US imports has fallen significantly due to trade restrictions since 2018.

Falling demand from China has prevented oil prices from rising, despite Middle East conflicts.

2023 defied predictions of a global recession, with central banks considering interest rate cuts for the coming months.

Geopolitical conflicts and elections in key economies add uncertainty to the 2024 economic outlook.

Fiscal stimulus in the US and China is expected to boost infrastructure development and technological sectors.

Emerging economies like Brazil and India are increasing in significance, with Brazil set to benefit from a super commodity cycle.

China's real estate market faces a prolonged downturn, impacting global markets and deflation.

European economies have made a tradeoff to cut energy dependence on Russia, impacting German industry and manufacturing.

China's Belt and Road Initiative is set to become more selective, focusing on renewable energy and strategic projects.

The relationship between China and Middle Eastern states is growing, with increased technological and infrastructure partnerships.

OPEC Plus's efforts to cut production have not significantly impacted oil prices due to increased US shale production.

Low oil prices benefit the global economy, particularly for countries with acute debt issues.

China's economic slowdown impacts global commodity supply chains, including oil and iron ore.

US-China decoupling in technology supply chains and investment sectors is causing a painful adjustment for both sides.

Attacks on ships in the Red Sea have increased insurance costs and geopolitical risk, but have not significantly affected oil prices.

Transcripts

[Music]

[Music]

hello I'm Adrian finigan and this is

counting the cost on Al jazer a Slowdown

in international trade soaring debt

levels High inflation and high interest

rates what lies ahead for the global

economy in

24 but China is grappling with deflation

as prices continue to fall how will

slowing growth and demand there affect

the rest of the world and the economic

impact of Israel's war on Gaza even as

oil prices haven't been affected

concerns amounting about shipping

[Music]

costs a global recession was widely

predicted in 2023 but major economies

have mostly held firm raising interest

rates to control inflation

the US economy expanded by 5.2% in the

third quarter the quickest Pace in

nearly 2 years food and fuel prices have

come down but inflation and high

interest rates remain a major issue in

many parts of the world we have a panel

to discuss the global economic outlook

for 2024 in a moment but first a report

from prianka

gupto holding interest rates steady the

US Federal Reserve signals it's done

with hikes at its last meeting of the

year in December since March 2022 it's

raised rates 11 times to ease inflation

which is now slowing after hitting a

40-year high in January

2022 at its final meeting the European

Central Bank followed the fed's lead

leaving rates

unchanged But Central Bankers are

warning it would be premature to declare

victory over

inflation we are seeing uh you know

strong growth that is that is appears to

be moderating we're seeing a labor

market that that is coming back into

balance by so many measures and we're

seeing inflation making real progress

these are the things we've been wanting

to see we can't know uh we still have a

ways to go while large parts of the

world are worried about inflation China

has the opposite problem deflation

prices are falling with domestic demand

weakened by high youth unemployment and

a property crisis and there's the

rhetoric from Washington about

decoupling its economy from Beijing the

international monetary fund is warning

of fragmentation into power blocks

centered around the US and China risk

wiping trillions of dollars from Global

output China is no longer the largest

trading partner to the US and its share

of us Imports have fallen by almost 10

percentage points in 5 years from 22% in

2018 to 133% in the first half of this

year the trade restrictions imposed

since the onset of the US China trade

tensions in

2018 have effectively curbed Chinese

Imports of tariffed products faltering

demand from China has prevented oil

prices from rising despite concerns

about a broader conflict in the Middle

East and US oil production is at a

record high limiting the impact of

production cuts by OPEC plus

exporters 2023 has been a year of

economic surprises defying predictions

of a global recession while central

banks explore interest interest rate

Cuts in the months ahead geopolitical

conflicts and elections in key economies

bring additional uncertainty to

2024 prianka Gupta

alaz well let's break down the main

economic trends for 2024 now with our

three guests from London we're joined by

Charlie Robertson Charlie is the head of

macro strategy at uh fim Partners as

well as the author of the time traveling

Economist from Miami Florida we're

joined by Shirley Shirley's senior

practitioner fellow at the Harvard

Kennedy School and from Doha we're

joined by Ahmed Halal Ahmed is practice

director of the Middle East and North

Africa region at Global Council welcome

uh to you all Charlie let's start with

you a worldwide recession uh had been

widely predicted by economists in

2023 and as we were hearing a few

minutes ago uh the US economy grew at

its fastest Pace in nearly two years

what happened

well uh I mean as as as a time traveling

Economist perhaps I was paying too much

attention to history we hadn't seen rate

hikes like this for decades uh not since

the early 90s and it was just a the

Assumption was that had to break things

um and when we saw Silicon Valley Bank

blow up in March you know people began

to think that that was exactly what was

happening but I think we underestimated

two or three things firstly the the the

Biden fiscal package Biden's fiscal

boost to the economy helped secondly

Americans were all on 30-year fixed rate

mortgages which they they've remortgaged

or got those mortgages at the lowest

ever rates in 40 years in their careers

and and very few have had to take on new

mortgages um even as rates went up they

they stuck with those fixes that really

helped and then thirdly all those covid

payments uh and that cash support in

2020 and 2021 just lasted longer than

than I think most people expected

Shirley what lessons then can be drawn

for

2024 uh from I mean I think it's fairly

safe to say the surprise economic

developments of

2023 I like the way you frame it uh just

now the gentleman mentioned about fiscal

stimulus in the United States and I

think that is the lesson that can be

trans uh transpired uh to the Chinese

economy in 2024 as well empo fiscal

policy stimulus has been put in place to

advance China's infrastructure

development in 2024 and I think it's

very likely that uh the fiscal deficit

for 204 is going to break the 3% uh

threshold and so uh 2024 is likely to be

a infrastructure boom year for China not

only in public infrastructure but also

uh in affordable housing development

projects in China's urban areas

meanwhile the Chinese government will

continue to pump billions of dollars

into the uh strategic technological

sectors from semiconductors to AI to EVS

Etc so in looking at China's uh fiscal

stimulus I think um you know that uh

over time is going to create jobs and

jobs will boost the market confidence

and when confidence restores somewhat

that'll help uh to support uh consumer

spending and therefore the economy will

pick up from there a what about emerging

economies the bricks Nations uh will

countries like uh Brazil uh and and

India play a much bigger role in the

global economy going

forward well both are increasing in

geopolitical significance India just

hosted the G20 and Brazil will now host

the presidency of the G20 Brazil and

India are both top 10 Global economies

um Brazil is an emerging Energy power as

well and will be trying to benefit from

the next round of the super commodity

cycle and increase in Energy prices as

when D Silva Lula D Silva was in power

earlier uh when he benefited from high

oil prices India particularly

geopolitically is becoming a

counterweight to China and you find

Western Powers the US Europe trying

their hardest to uh uh strengthen ties

with India as a counter way to China we

saw this in the feud uh with Canada over

the murder of a seik activist um in

Canada and the West didn't have very

vocal responses to um to that incident

uh on climate action as well you see

Brazil wanting to be a more EnV a more

responsible Environmental uh Steward and

wanting to use the bricks and the

expansion of the bricks to forward that

agenda Charlie what's going to happen

with inflation this year gaze into your

crystal ball for us is it going to

continue to fall are uh central banks

going to be able to to ease

rates my base case is that it is going

to fall and the Market's very much on on

track with that but I I think China and

and what your previous speaker was was

mentioning is a part of that story

China's real estate problems are so cute

and so likely to be so prolonged that I

think China is going to try and export

its way out of its recession and that

means it's going to be exporting

deflation so we've already seen it going

out and buying iron or in a big way to

overproduce Steel which is now getting

dumped on the global markets it's become

the world's biggest car exporter in the

world that's giving us lower prices for

electric vehicles so I think they're

going to be exporting deflation to the

rest of the world and that's going to

help get uh get inflation down all right

we we'll we'll talk more about China

specifically in just a few moments but

what's the outlook for uh Europe where

um economic growth has been well pretty

stagnant hasn't it over the last

year yeah and I think the markets I

think what we're all having to recognize

that the Europeans have made a tradeoff

and they said we have to cut our energy

dependence on on Putin we can no longer

trust the man um and that has carried a

cost and that cost has been born largely

by German industry and German

manufacturing which doesn't have the

cheap energy Supply from Russia it used

to have and and we're seeing terrible

iPhone numbers there will be an

adjustment and the fact that energy

prices have fallen so much in the last

just in the last month or two tells us

that that actually this could almost be

self-correcting the globally lower

energy prices therefore help German

manufacturing start to get back on track

through 2024 but uh yeah Europe is

looking weak as as we enter 2024 surely

you you heard Charlie they're saying

that that China is going to export

deflation what can it do to to stem uh

this trend of falling

prices well China has been exporting

deflation to uh particularly the Western

Market and the rest of the world pretty

much for the past four decades so there

is nothing new there but one thing that

was highlighted uh which is interesting

is actually the lingering uncertainty

surrounding China's really State market

and of course uh the banks uh have been

trying to offer even uh on some

occasions un collateralize the loans to

Chinese real estate developers in order

to arrest the real estate market decline

however in the central government uh uh

economic work conference that happened

recently um real estate was not even

mentioned so we are still looking at a

fairly painful year ahead for the

Chinese real estate market yeah what

what what what specifically is going

wrong with with China's real estate

market we've been talking about this for

quite some time now on on counting the

cost uh and the government doesn't seem

to be able to do anything to to to

revive

it well if you were to look at the

global experiences uh in the recent

decades uh the realistic cyclicality

happened both in Japan in the 1990s and

also in the United States in the early

20 uh 21st century so in looking at from

Peak to 12 for the real estate C it took

Japan 13 years to reach uh the bottom of

the real estate cycle and it took the us

about 5 years from 2007 to 2012 uh in

Japan's case from 1990 all the way to

2003 so it does take a long time uh once

the real estate Bubble Burst uh for the

market and particularly the market

confidence to recover so in the Chinese

instance if you were to look at the real

estate market Trend the Chinese real

estate Crisis happen on a more severe uh

uh uh scale both in terms of scale and

the size in comparison to the Japanese

uh real estate bubble burst in 1990

however uh what made the difference

between the Japanese uh situation versus

the United States is the government

response because in 2007 the US

governments uh resorted to this all what

can do attitude uh including four rounds

of quantitative easing so that the the

uh the recession uh were able to recover

fairly quickly uh and by comparison the

Japanese uh Central bank's uh uh stance

uh was rather uh I would say hesitant at

the point in time so really how long

it's going to take for the Chinese real

estate market to recover uh to a large

extent also depends on the Chinese uh

Central government's uh monetary and the

fiscal policy support aad what's what's

your view on how China's economic woes

uh will affect the rest of us in

2024 well it's the second largest

economy in in the world so if you look

at the Middle East the China gets most

of its oil and gas uh least oil from

from from the region so that's a clear

negative for countries that depend

overwhelmingly on oil Revenue to power

their economy so the market fundamentals

now with Supply outstripping demand is a

clear negative for the Middle East and

that will depress investment

domestically and um uh lead to Greater

voluntary cuts from OPEC production OPEC

producers Charlie there's been a lot of

talk in the US about decoupling the

economy uh from China's is is that

happening in practice

now no no it's really not um and despite

all of the efforts the the trade deficit

with China remains massive and I think

it's going to be an increasing issue

both with Europe and with the states um

but I just would like to touch on that

last question also about the Gulf but

what's interesting about what we're

seeing out of Saudi and UAE is like

India we're seeing this big boost into

infrastructure um and that

infrastructure investment boom also

talked about on CH for China is is part

of of Saudi trying to diversify its

economy it's a trillion dollar economy

it's actually playing it's one of the

growth stories at the moment and they

can afford to leverage up their balance

sheet um through the 2020s to help that

diversification even if oil prices are a

bit lower we'll come on to oil prices in

just a minute but first I I I I want to

finish with with China Shirley uh what's

the future for China's belt and Road

initiative given that the the only major

uh Western member Italy uh has pulled

out uh more precisely the G7 member uh

indeed that is a pivotal change uh

however um the Bon Road uh conference uh

that happened recently announced an

additional 100 trillion dollars of

incremental lending facilities to the

developing countries I think the balom

road uh initiative will continue but

it'll fundamentally change its

characterization going forward one uh

the balom road initiative will become

more Nimble and more selective in terms

of projects I think renewable energy

development in the developing World

particularly in Asia and Africa uh in

the Middle East uh will continue to play

a dominant role in its uh p future

policy framework um China has uh

initiated this small and beautiful uh

essentially Nimble uh solar energy

development projects in Africa and if

you were to look at China's access uh

capacity in solar wind Hydro EVS Etc uh

it it has a global dominant position

China owns roughly about 70% of the

global Solar Supply Chain over 50% of

the global wind supply chain and so um

the global uh renewable energy

transition will not be able to uh be

achieved without China's supply chain

support and two I think China will

continue to focus on a lot of strategic

projects that are uh that are uh Central

to its national security so for example

China recently expressed the support for

a new landbridge project in Thailand

that will essentially create a uh

pathway uh as an alternative to oil

shipping route across the state of Mala

so the state of Mala has traditionally

been considered a a strategic

vulnerability for China and apad what

what's your view on on the growing um

relationship the Strategic Partnerships

we're seeing between China uh and middle

eastern

states well it's increasing their

technological partnership it was mainly

a relationship of importing and

exporting oil but they want to move up

the technology value chain they want to

diversify their economies and China has

been investing in infrastructure is part

of the Belton Road initiative in in the

Gulf in the Middle East broadly in Egypt

as well uh but increasingly they want to

corporate on things like U AI

semiconductors Automotive the renewable

energy industry so there is a greater

integration on on areas other than

hydrocarbon so you will be seeing China

you have high level visits uh from

sheing P earlier this year and

reciprocated by trip the by MBS so there

there is greater engagement between to

the two countries and areas outside

energy okay let's let's talk further

about oil uh prices had risen in the

initial days of the of Israel's war on

on Gaza uh out of fears that it could

spark a wider Middle East conflict uh

since then uh prices have have fallen um

what does that mean for the global

economy well it's it it's about uh

Market fundamentals it's about

increasing Supply and Records m in

Supply from the United States in the

Shale patches peran Basin um from

non-cartel non OPEC members increasing

their production Brazil uh Guana and you

have uh weakened demand so waning demand

at the same time from China and Europe

um lower o oil price prices are are good

for manufacturing sector for energy

intensive sectors um in in Europe but

there are other drags on on global

growth as my colleague earlier was was

was saying uh High interest rates and

higher costs are weighing on on growth

generally and of course China's private

property sector and its own economic Wes

are growing are are weighing on uh oil

demand so that's why uh we haven't seen

the Gaza War have a real uh impact on

oil prices and it's also that market

participants have have assumed that it's

going to continue to be a localized uh

conflict a contained conflict that will

not be widening and will not be

affecting um the global uh uh trade

flows and Global energy flows and and

Ahmed can can OPEC OPEC plus do anything

to stem uh the fall in in the price of

oil or at least the stagnation of

it it doesn't seem to be working I mean

they they keep uh increasing their Cuts

their voluntary cuts the uh in September

Saudi and Russia as part of the OPEC

plus group U reduced their production by

million barrels per day at least Saudi

did Russia followed suits but it doesn't

seem to be working because the the cuts

are being offset by uh this um massive

increase in um and this this goes as

Testament to the resilience of the US

Shale industry and US oil and gas

production that they whenever they've

been written off they come back and

they're now producing the US is the

preeminent oil oil producer around 20

million barrels a day uh compared to

Saudi which is on average 11 or 12

million barrels a day and U these Cuts

in an attempt to prop up the price are

actually reducing the market share of uh

Saudi and its OPEC uh uh OPEC peers um

so uh it's it's not looking good in

terms of uh oil prices and fiscal

receipts for the gulf oil producers at

market share Charlie is high us oil

production Now The New

Normal it took a little while to come

through um I think the Shale guys were

particularly cautious um after Co not to

overproduce and create a slump um but

yeah it looks it looks like this is

sustainable and it's going to carry off

sometime but what will change is global

demand so Global demand as interest

rates come down because lower oil will

bring down inflation central banks can

then deliver rate Cuts that'll help on

the demand side and it's going to save a

lot of countries countries like Pakistan

Kenya that have been facing acute debt

issues uh are now going to find life an

awful lot easier with low oil prices so

I I think this is coming at a fantastic

time for the world economy actually

Shirley to to what extent is is China's

uh slow slow down impacting upon those

those falling oil

prices China is the world's largest

energy importer so China's slowing

economy obviously will cast uncertainty

and the future shocks uh not only to

Global oil prices but also to the other

Commodities including IR ore Etc and if

you have noticed recently because of uh

the lack of consumer confidence in China

um Chinese have been buying a lot of

gold uh pushing the Chinese domestic

gold prices at 10 to 15% premium to the

global market price so uh obviously

China is going to have a huge impact to

the global commodi uh supply chain but

uh um as previously mentioned it would

be unrealistic to think of a full

economic decoupling between the United

States and China however um that's not

to say that it's not going to be a

painful process as the uh you know the

US China decoupling happens uh primarily

in the technology supply chain and uh

including increasingly in the uh

investment sectors so say for example in

semiconductors uh us semiconductor

companies from Nvidia to qualcom Intel

Etc they all have a huge market share uh

in China in in the's case possibly

around 25% of its Global Revenue comes

from China so now you have us

semiconductor companies that are looking

for a comparable Market the size of

China's and there is just simply none

out there meanwhile Chinese companies

have the money but there are just simply

things uh out there that Chinese cannot

buy so you are looking at both the

buyers and sellers and every uh other uh

you know essentially operators along the

supply chain are are going going through

a rather painful process for quite a

long time all right finally I want to

touch on on shipping costs aad what's

the impact of of the poy attacks on uh

ships passing through the Red Sea uh

that we've seen on uh shipping costs and

how concerned is the industry about the

the bab El mandab

straight um of course it's increasing

Insurance costs increasing the

geopolitical risk premium for uh

Charters and and and Freight industry um

the bub and mandab and straight of

hormos actually straight of hormos is

even more important as as as an oil

choke point 25% of global Seaborn oil

trade transits to straight of foremost

and the B is little less about 10% of

global oil trade so they're key Global

oil archeries and the the hoi attacks a

Spate of them have been happening since

the outbreak of hostilities between

Hamas and Israel but they were happening

before that and uh they haven't really

been moving the oil price if you believe

the oil price today at $73 a barrel um

you you you see that that the market has

priced in these incidents and the market

believes that the the conflict will

remain contained will not be widening

and that these incidents will not really

be uh moving the dial of course if if

there is escalation if there if there

are retaliatory strikes retaliatory

strikes from Israel on Iranian

infrastructure Iran oil refineries and

the stet of horal is blocked or

disrupted for any for any reason then we

could see some very extreme scenarios

with the price of oil the World Bank

anticipated perhaps going up to 1557

dollar barrels a dollars a barrel which

would be

a huge oil shock and would be a dual oil

price shock with Russia and Ukraine

still happening okay there I'm afraid we

must end it many thanks indeed to you

all Charlie Robertson Shelley U and

Ahmed Halal and that is our show for

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the cost in Doha I'm Adrian finigan from

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