BITCOIN: WATCH IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS...

Summary

This video discusses the significance of the upcoming FOMC event and CPI release on Bitcoin's trajectory. The presenter analyzes Bitcoin's price action, emphasizing key resistance levels and potential bullish scenarios, while cautioning about possible market volatility. They delve into labor market data, revealing a concerning shift towards part-time employment, hinting at economic weakness. The impact of Bitcoin ETFs, particularly the inflow of funds, is highlighted, contrasting this with the potential for a correction in Ethereum post-ETF approval. The video concludes with a skeptical note on political promises regarding crypto, advocating for a Republican administration viewed as more crypto-friendly.

Takeaways

• 📈 The speaker is very bullish on Bitcoin and believes it will break towards the upside, despite a recent rejection from the 71.4k level.
• 📊 The speaker discusses the importance of the FOMC event and the CPI data, which are both happening on the same day and could significantly impact Bitcoin's volatility.
• 💡 The speaker suggests that a break above 72k with confirmation is needed for Bitcoin to continue its bullish trend, while a drop to 64k must hold as support to avoid a double top formation.
• 🌐 The speaker mentions that Canada and the Eurozone have cut interest rates, leading to speculation that the US might follow suit, but doubts this due to the difference in inflation rates.
• 📉 The labor market is not as strong as it seems, with a significant increase in part-time jobs compared to full-time employment, indicating economic weakness.
• 🏦 The speaker points out that foreign-born individuals are taking more jobs than native-born Americans, which could lead to less capital being injected into the economy.
• 📉 The speaker highlights that since 2018, no jobs have been added for native-born Americans on average, which is a concerning economic indicator.
• 💰 The speaker talks about Bitcoin ETFs and how they are buying up large amounts of Bitcoin, which could lead to ETF issuers holding a significant portion of the Bitcoin supply in the future.
• 🚀 The speaker predicts that Ethereum might rally before the launch of its ETF but warns of a potential correction afterward due to selling pressure from Grayscale.
• 🏠 The speaker mentions high prices for everyday items like milk and houses, suggesting an economic bubble that could lead to a collapse.
• 🗣️ The speaker advises viewers to take political promises regarding cryptocurrencies with caution, citing President Trump's changing stance on TikTok as an example.

Q & A

What significant events are expected to impact Bitcoin this week according to the video?

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) are the significant events that are expected to impact Bitcoin this week.

What is the current bearish sentiment on Bitcoin and what could change it?

The bearish sentiment is based on the price rejection at the 71.4k level. A break above 72k with confirmation or a bullish trend continuation could change this sentiment.

What is the importance of the 64k support level for Bitcoin?

The 64k level is crucial as it represents the support of a large ascending channel and the ascending triangle pattern. A drop below this level could indicate a double top formation, which is bearish.

How does the speaker view the labor market based on the non-farm employment data?

The speaker views the labor market as not doing very well, despite high employment numbers, due to a significant increase in part-time jobs and a decrease in full-time jobs.

What is the speaker's opinion on the potential interest rate cut by the US during the FOMC event?

The speaker does not expect an interest rate cut by the US during the FOMC event, as the US inflation rate is still high compared to Canada and the Euro Zone.

Why does the speaker believe that the labor market situation is not accurately reflected in the stock market?

The speaker believes that the stock market does not accurately reflect the labor market because the increase in part-time jobs and the decrease in full-time jobs indicate economic weakness, not strength.

What is the significance of the Bitcoin ETFs and their inflows for the Bitcoin market?

The Bitcoin ETFs are significant because they are buying up large amounts of Bitcoin daily, which could potentially lead to them holding a substantial percentage of the overall Bitcoin supply.

What is the speaker's projection for Ethereum after the ETF approval?

The speaker projects that Ethereum will rally until the ETF approval and experience significant volatility on the launch day, after which they expect a correction due to selling pressure from Grayscale.

How does the speaker view the current state of the US economy based on the labor market and inflation?

The speaker views the US economy as potentially heading towards stagflation or recession, citing the high number of part-time jobs, the lack of full-time job growth for native-born Americans, and high inflation.

What is the speaker's advice regarding political promises related to cryptocurrency?

The speaker advises viewers to take political promises related to cryptocurrency, or anything else, with a pinch of salt, citing the example of President Trump's changing stance on TikTok.

What is the speaker's final note on the expected content for the week?

The speaker notes that the week's content will be extensive, with live streams and various videos, and thanks the viewers for watching until the end.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Bitcoin's Upcoming Week and Market Analysis

The speaker discusses the significance of the upcoming week for Bitcoin, focusing on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) event and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) release on the same day. They provide an analysis of Bitcoin's price action, noting a rejection at the $71.4k level but expressing a bullish outlook, anticipating a potential break towards the upside. The speaker also mentions the non-farm employment data, labor market conditions, and the impact of Bitcoin ETFs. They emphasize the importance of watching the video in full to understand 10 different bullish charts for Bitcoin and to be prepared for various market scenarios, including a possible double top formation if the support at $64k fails.

05:01

📊 Labor Market Insights and Economic Concerns

This paragraph delves into the labor market, highlighting a shift from full-time to part-time employment as an indicator of economic strain. The speaker points out that full-time jobs have decreased while part-time jobs have surged, suggesting that people are taking on multiple jobs to make ends meet. They also discuss the impact of foreign-born individuals on the job market, noting that they often accept lower wages, which can lead to less capital being available for economic circulation. The speaker expresses concern over the potential for stagflation and recession, referencing the high price of everyday items like milk and housing as indicators of economic instability.

10:03

💼 Bitcoin ETFs and Ethereum's Future Prospects

The speaker talks about the role of Bitcoin ETF issuers in the market, noting significant inflows into Bitcoin and the potential for these ETFs to hold a substantial portion of the Bitcoin supply in the future. They contrast this with Ethereum, predicting a different market reaction due to the upcoming approval of Ethereum ETFs. The speaker anticipates a rally leading up to the launch, followed by significant volatility and a possible correction, as they expect Grayscale to sell Ethereum holdings post-launch. They caution viewers about the potential for a sell-off from Grayscale and advise caution in the Ethereum market.

🏛 Political Impact on Crypto and Final Thoughts

In the final paragraph, the speaker touches on political promises, specifically mentioning President Trump's inconsistent stance on crypto and TikTok, as an example of how political promises should be taken with skepticism. They express a preference for a Republican administration for its perceived friendliness towards crypto, contrasting it with a Democratic administration. The speaker concludes by thanking the viewers for watching the extensive video and promises exciting content for the week ahead.

Keywords

💡Bitcoin

Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that operates without a central bank or single administrator. It is the first and most well-known cryptocurrency, often used as a benchmark for the entire crypto market. In the video, the speaker discusses Bitcoin's potential price movements in relation to upcoming economic events, indicating its central role in the discussion.

💡FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is a branch of the Federal Reserve System responsible for making monetary policy decisions. The speaker anticipates that the FOMC event could influence Bitcoin's value, suggesting that decisions made by this committee can have significant impacts on financial markets, including cryptocurrencies.

💡CPI

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change over time in the prices paid by urban consumers for a market basket of consumer goods and services. The video mentions the CPI as a key economic indicator that could affect Bitcoin's price, highlighting the importance of inflation data in shaping market expectations.

💡Non-farm Employment Data

Non-farm employment data is a measure of the number of paid workers in the economy, excluding the agricultural sector. The speaker criticizes the media's portrayal of this data, arguing that the labor market is not as strong as reported, which is relevant to understanding the broader economic context that may influence Bitcoin's performance.

💡Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands are a technical analysis tool that consists of a set of lines plotted two standard deviations (positively and negatively) away from a simple moving average of a security's price. The speaker refers to the upper Bollinger Band as a resistance level for Bitcoin, indicating its use in identifying potential price reversals.

💡Ascending Channel

An ascending channel is a technical pattern used in trading that indicates a security's price is moving within a rising trend. The video discusses Bitcoin's support level within a large ascending channel, suggesting that this pattern could provide insight into Bitcoin's future price direction.

💡Double Top

A double top is a bearish reversal pattern in technical analysis that occurs when a security's price reaches a high price twice but fails to surpass it during a given period. The speaker warns of the possibility of Bitcoin forming a double top, which would signal a potential price decline.

💡Bitcoin ETFs

Bitcoin ETFs, or Exchange-Traded Funds, are investment funds that hold Bitcoin and are traded on stock exchanges like stocks. The speaker discusses the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the market, noting that inflows into these funds can drive up the price of Bitcoin.

💡Ethereum

Ethereum is an open-source, blockchain-based, distributed computing platform and operating system featuring smart contract functionality. It is the second-largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. The video contrasts Ethereum's expected performance with Bitcoin's, suggesting different market dynamics for these two major cryptocurrencies.

💡Grayscale

Grayscale is a digital currency asset management company that offers investment products based on cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin and Ethereum. The speaker expresses concern about Grayscale's holdings in Ethereum, suggesting that their selling pressure could negatively impact Ethereum's price after an ETF launch.

💡Stagflation

Stagflation is a situation in which the economy is stagnant, with stagnant growth and high unemployment, but also experiencing a rise in inflation. The video mentions the risk of stagflation as a broader economic concern that could affect the performance of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin.

Highlights

This week is crucial for Bitcoin due to the FOMC event and CPI announcement on the same day.

Bitcoin's price was rejected from the 71.4k level but a bullish trend is expected to break towards the upside.

A detailed analysis of Bitcoin's potential movements with 10 different bullish charts is provided.

The importance of breaking above the 72k level for a conservative bullish outlook is discussed.

Market volatility is anticipated to increase significantly with the opening of the market on Monday.

A potential rejection to 64k is mentioned, with an emphasis on the support level of the ascending channel.

The risk of forming a double top in Bitcoin's price if the ascending triangle does not hold is highlighted.

CPI data and the FOMC event are expected to influence market sentiment and Bitcoin's direction.

Speculations about the US following Canada and the Euro Zone in cutting interest rates are addressed.

The discrepancy between high employment numbers and the quality of jobs, particularly full-time vs. part-time, is analyzed.

The impact of part-time jobs on the economy and the potential for stagflation or recession is discussed.

Bitcoin ETFs are highlighted as a significant factor in Bitcoin's price stability and growth.

The potential for Ethereum to rally before and experience volatility after its ETF approval is predicted.

Concerns about Grayscale's large holdings in Ethereum and the potential selling pressure post-ETF approval are raised.

A warning is issued to be cautious of Ethereum's potential correction after the ETF launch.

President Trump's statements about crypto and their potential impact on the market are critiqued.

The video concludes with a reminder to take political promises with caution and a personal preference for a Republican administration for crypto.

Transcripts

guys and girls this week is going to be

incredibly important for Bitcoin as we

have the fomc event and the CPI in fact

on the same exact day so watch until the

end I'll be going through Bitcoin

analysis um and we'll go through CPI

fomc non-farm employment data which was

marketed as something incredible but

that's really not the case the labor

market is not doing very good at all and

then finally I'll go into the Bitcoin

ETFs and my projection for what could

happen with ethereum sit back relax

enjoy if you wish to do so you can skip

Parts in the time stamps but I would

definitely recommend watching until the

end to get the full value so looking at

the price of Bitcoin on the 12h hourly

unfortunately we got rejected from the

71.4k level but eventually I really do

believe that Bitcoin is going to break

towards the upside if you are a bear at

this current moment in time after you

finish watching this video go to the

card at the top right hand section in

fact you can create a new tab and save

the video for the time being because I

show you 10 different charts that makes

me super bullish for Bitcoin and

essentially can convince anyone that

Bitcoin is going to go higher I'll just

say that but you can uh go ahead and

watch the video later on so 71.4 is the

point to break if you're a bit more

conservative then you want a break at

the 72k level uh on the 4day time frame

because that is the upper Ballinger band

we got rejected that's okay uh the

weekend is not too volatile usually

happens but going into tomorrow Monday

Market open Bitcoin will become much

much much more volatile and the volume

that comes in whether it's going to be

positive or negative that will

essentially set the mood for Bitcoin if

the trend can continue bullish amazing

but if not then a rejection to 64 is

possible um but I don't think Bitcoin

will go below 64 in a very long amount

of time because it is the support level

of this huge parallel ascending channel

that has been for ing uh ever since the

bottom of the bar market up to uh March

of this year so that would you know 64

would come down to the support now

support of this Channel and we would

also keep in within this ascending

triangle because if this ascending

triangle does not hold then then things

change then things eventually change

because we would be forming a double top

I hope it doesn't happen my indicators

and oscillators are telling me that that

will hopefully not happen but we need to

be prepared for any scenario ESS if we

want Bitcoin to continue in a bullish

way then we want to break above 72 with

a confirmation if we see a drop to 64 we

need to pray to God that it holds

because if not then Bitcoin would be

creating a double top but don't worry

I'm still all in I'm still in my bullish

bias and we'll see if Bitcoin starts

forming a double top then we can

re-evaluate a couple of things so now

let's jump into the CPI data and the

fomc which will both be taking place on

the same exact day and why are people so

hyped up about this event in particular

well it's because Canada uh the first G7

country to do so cut their interest

rates by 25 basis points for the first

time in a year and after Canada Euro

zone so the entirety of Europe

essentially they also reduced their

interest rates by 25 basis points and

people are now speculating that the US

will also do the same thing during this

fomc event but I don't think that will

be the case simply because Canada had an

inflation data of 1.6% Euro Zone had an

inflation data of 2.9% very close to

their 2% Target whereas the US still has

a long way to go as we sit at 3.6% but

things can change that's why it's

important because we have the CPI data

right before fomc if the inflation rate

shocks everyone then we could even get a

cut this week which would in my opinion

dump the markets because if we go back

in history in a time of economic

uncertainty at least among people maybe

not in the stock market when you have a

huge fed pivot then you enter into a

recession at least in the stock market

term so it would not be too great but my

expectation is that they will cut either

July or September but we'll find out

when we stream the fomc on the channel

apart from uh apart from inflation data

though the FED also takes a look at the

labor market which was projected to be

super super strong on CNBC and Bloomberg

forgive me Bloomberg uh but that's

really not the case because when we dive

into the data even though we have

massive amounts of employment according

to the official data released that is

not the case when we dive deep into it

because yes we may have high employment

but what is the what is that employment

composed of um is it from full-time or

part-time essentially you want full-time

you want full-time employees because

people make better salaries and they're

probably in a good financial position

whereas if people take part-time jobs

and if they're taking two or more at the

same time which is by the way at an

all-time high it indicates that people

don't have enough money so they're

trying to do those part-time jobs as

much as possible so that they can

provide for their families when we look

into this chart full-time employment

lost

625,000 jobs whereas part-time increased

so you're having a transfer not let

alone transfer but you're having an

excess a deficit of full-time employment

compared to part-time when we look into

this chart it's even worse you can see

that part-time employment is huge

whereas full-time employment is is in

the negative um and that's just showing

you how bad the economy really is uh and

to see the economy you don't you

shouldn't look at the the price of the

S&P because that's not an accurate

reflection this is an accurate

reflection and let alone the part-time

and full-time employment situation the

actual people taking those jobs are

mostly native born uh mostly foreign

born not native born in fact Americans

are losing jobs compared to the foreign

born individuals and why is it important

because overall uh foreign born

individuals usually uh take less pay

compared to the native born Americans or

you know this law applies to every

everywhere in the world uh it's showing

you that uh companies Etc they're

choosing foreign born for cheap cheaper

labor and if you're choosing cheaper

labor then the families they have less

amount of capital to inject into the

economy and you're leading yourself into

a huge stagflation SL uh recession so

it's not looking good in fact since

2018 zero jobs for non uh for non for

native born Americans have been added

overall in average zero that's terrible

uh from where I'm standing and that

explains why half of Americans believe

that the stock market has been declining

over the past year even though that it's

been hitting alltime high after alltime

high and 72% of Americans think that

inflation is increasing whereas again

the data suggests that it's been falling

pretty rapidly over the past 12 months

but with that said we can go into the

Bitcoin ETFs um I do need to mention

this a gallon of milk was spotted to be

selling for $27 I mean what the hell uh

apart from milk we're seeing homes go

for like 500k and there was one that was

literally shed constructed in 1951

selling for

$500,000 I don't get it that

delinquencies are at an all-time high

how are people going to be paying for

these things they won't and that's just

why I really believe that we are heading

into a massive collapse so yeah it won't

be good it won't be good but what is

good what we can still count on is the

Bitcoin ETF issuers buying up huge

chunks of Bitcoin every single day in

fact last week we had the second highest

inflow ever uh for Bitcoin even though

that we were just consolidating and not

a major move has been happening 8 $186

million in just one day and now that

iBot holds 300,000 Bitcoin in if we keep

going like this in two years the ETF

issuers will have like 10% of the

overall Bitcoin Supply which is mad to

think about uh and if we go to ethereum

I think ethereum will act very

differently compared to bitcoin because

we will be getting the approval sometime

this month or early in July and once

that happens I think ethereum will

continue rallying into it and on the day

of the launch we will have significant

volatility that's when I'm personally

closing my long position on ethereum but

because grayscale holds over1 billion

worth of ethereum I'm just scared about

this number because I really don't think

that ethereum is going to be performing

better than the Bitcoin ETFs they're

expecting on10th of the overall

performance in terms of inflows so yes

grayscale will be selling once again

just like Bitcoin but the amount of

inflows that we'll be seeing from other

ETF issuers will not be able to come

compensate the amount of selling

pressure that will be coming from uh

grayscale uh specifically for ethereum

so I think that's going to be the

difference with Bitcoin so after we see

the launch I think ethereum will

continue to fall uh until gray scale

starts getting inflows in and how long

would that take nobody knows so I think

ethereum is due for a huge correction

after we get the launches so do be

careful of course it's my opinion only

always do your own research I'm just

worried about how much uh ethereum

grayscale holds and to end off this

video uh on Friday president Trump said

that he was the crypto president at the

San Francisco Tech fundraiser now guys

and girls please please please take any

political candidates presidential

candidates um promises for Bitcoin

crypto or anything in general with a

pinch of salt and this is exactly my

proof because he also said that he'll

never ban Tik Tok if he becomes

president if you remember president

Trump was the number one person

advocating for a Tik Tok ban uh so you

know I'm just seeing a huge 180 degree

flips on many things here and I think

it's to get votes essentially but you

know I I'm still voting for him or I'm

not voting for him because I'm not

American but I'm still uh I still hope

he wins because a republican

Administration will definitely be better

for crypto compared to a democratic

Administration in office let's see what

happens uh I just wanted to point that

out but guys and girls you've been

absolutely fantastic for for watching

until the end I know it's been an

extensive video but I promise you this

week's content will be through the roof

we'll go live we'll post different

videos uh so I hope you enjoy them uh as

the week goes by but guys and girls

thank you so much for tuning in have a

great day and I'll be seeing you all

very shortly bye-bye