I Survived the Airbnb Bust. here's how.

Free Short Term Rental Course by Sean Rakidzich
25 Dec 202215:53

Summary

TLDRThe video discusses the current downturn in the Airbnb market, with high supply and low demand leading to many hosts struggling to secure bookings. The host shares business insights, suggesting that surviving the current bust could lead to future profitability as the market stabilizes. They outline their strategy to diversify their property portfolio, focusing on smaller units in various neighborhoods to gather data and adapt quickly. The speaker also highlights the importance of free rent concessions in their expansion plans and considers co-hosting opportunities to pivot during this challenging period.

Takeaways

  • ๐Ÿ“‰ The Airbnb market is currently facing a downturn, with many hosts experiencing low occupancy rates.
  • ๐Ÿ”‘ Despite the downturn, there is potential for a supply-demand bottleneck as struggling hosts exit the market, which could lead to increased profits for those who remain.
  • ๐Ÿ’ก The speaker is conducting split testing to understand the mechanics of the Airbnb algorithm and plans to share findings with the audience.
  • ๐Ÿ  The speaker has taken over the company and has made significant staff cuts to streamline operations and reduce costs.
  • ๐Ÿ“ˆ The speaker is focusing on data analysis to understand which properties are successful and why, with the aim of replicating success in other areas.
  • ๐Ÿ›  The company is scaling back on the number of doors per building to avoid high-risk concentration and is diversifying its property portfolio.
  • ๐Ÿ“ Free rent concessions are crucial in the current market, as they provide a significant cost advantage and help in furnishing properties at no additional expense.
  • ๐Ÿ”„ The speaker is pivoting to co-hosting larger properties, using surplus furniture to minimize costs and maximize revenue.
  • ๐Ÿšซ The speaker advises against purchasing properties at the current time due to the potential for significant market depreciation.
  • ๐Ÿ”Ž The company is considering expanding into less competitive markets, such as Midwestern cities, to take advantage of easier guest satisfaction and better margins.
  • ๐Ÿ”„ There is an opportunity to acquire properties at a discount as people exit the Airbnb market, which could be beneficial for future expansion.

Q & A

  • What is the current situation of the Airbnb economy according to the speaker?

    -The Airbnb economy is tanking in most places, with many hosts experiencing empty calendars and a significant drop in bookings.

  • What is the speaker's theory about the Airbnb algorithm and its impact on bookings?

    -The speaker believes there might be a feedback loop issue within the Airbnb algorithm that could be causing a negative impact on bookings for some properties, potentially due to a winter release bug.

  • What advice does the speaker give to Airbnb hosts who are struggling with the current market conditions?

    -The speaker advises hosts to persevere, as those who survive the current downturn may benefit from a supply and demand bottleneck, leading to increased bookings and revenue in the future.

  • How does the speaker plan to adapt their business strategy in response to the Airbnb bust?

    -The speaker plans to diversify their property portfolio by adding properties in various areas and neighborhoods, focusing on free rent concessions, and expanding into co-hosting deals, especially for larger property types.

  • What is the significance of free rent concessions in the speaker's business strategy?

    -Free rent concessions are important because they provide a significant cost saving, effectively covering the cost of furnishing new properties and improving cash flow during the Airbnb bust.

  • Why is the speaker considering co-hosting deals despite previously advising against them?

    -The speaker is considering co-hosting deals because they offer a low-risk opportunity to expand into larger property types and new markets, providing valuable data and potential for increased revenue without the need for significant upfront investment.

  • What changes has the speaker made in their company's staffing and operations?

    -The speaker has taken over the company, made significant staff cuts to reduce costs, and is focusing on cleaning house and improving operational efficiency.

  • How does the speaker view the potential for new cities and markets in their business expansion?

    -The speaker sees potential in expanding into Midwestern markets, which are less competitive and may offer better margins due to less sophisticated host supply and more easily impressed guests.

  • What is the speaker's stance on purchasing property during the current market conditions?

    -The speaker is against purchasing property at this time, as they believe there is no value in buying when the market is likely to drop further, and they prefer to focus on co-hosting and arbitrage opportunities.

  • What is the speaker's outlook on the Airbnb market in the long term?

    -The speaker believes that the market will eventually normalize after the current phase of adoption and growth, leading to a more stable supply and demand situation and potentially a better environment for hosts.

  • How does the speaker plan to utilize internal data to navigate the current Airbnb market?

    -The speaker plans to rely on internal data to identify the best-performing neighborhoods, property types, and design styles, allowing them to make informed decisions and pivot their strategy based on robust, forward-looking data.

Outlines

00:00

๐Ÿ  Airbnb Economy Challenges and Strategic Property Acquisition

The speaker discusses the current downturn in the Airbnb market, especially noting the challenges faced in Houston. Despite the situation, they express optimism and shares their strategy for acquiring more properties during this period. The speaker emphasizes the importance of understanding the market dynamics, including supply and demand, and how surviving the current market conditions could lead to greater profitability in the future. They also touch on the potential impact of the Airbnb algorithm on bookings and their ongoing efforts to analyze and optimize their listings.

05:02

๐Ÿ“ˆ Adapting to Market Fluctuations with Data-Driven Decisions

This paragraph delves into the speaker's approach to adapting to the Airbnb market's current state by gathering and analyzing data from various properties. They highlight the importance of understanding why some properties are successful and others are not, with a focus on location being a key factor. The speaker also discusses staff cuts and changes in company leadership, which have led to significant cost savings. They express a strategy of expanding into different neighborhoods with a smaller number of doors per property to diversify their portfolio and gather more data, while also taking advantage of opportunities presented by others leaving the market.

10:02

๐Ÿ› ๏ธ Revamping Business Strategy Amidst Airbnb Downturn

The speaker outlines their pivot strategy in response to the Airbnb market's downturn. They discuss plans to add properties in various areas to collect more data, which will help them identify the best-performing neighborhoods and property types. The speaker also mentions the opportunity to acquire furniture at a discount as people leave the industry. They emphasize the importance of free rent concessions in their property deals and how this can offset the cost of furnishing new places. Additionally, they explore the possibility of co-hosting arrangements, particularly for larger properties, as a way to expand their business without taking on the risks associated with property ownership.

15:02

๐Ÿ”ฎ Navigating Potential Airbnb Algorithm Issues and Future Market Insights

In this paragraph, the speaker speculates on potential issues with the Airbnb algorithm that could be affecting bookings and occupancy rates. They suggest that a negative feedback loop within the algorithm might be pushing some listings to zero occupancy. The speaker also considers the possibility of a seasonal slow-down in demand and how this might affect the market. They discuss the potential for resetting listings to regain visibility in the algorithm and the importance of being prepared for various outcomes. The speaker also shares thoughts on expanding into new markets and the benefits of co-hosting, while firmly deciding against purchasing properties due to the current market instability.

๐Ÿก Seeking Opportunities in a Post-Bust Market for Strategic Property Investment

The final paragraph focuses on the speaker's long-term outlook and strategy following an anticipated market bust. They express a desire to see a significant drop in property values before considering purchases for long-term investment. The speaker invites others to share their strategies for navigating the market and concludes by summarizing their current activities, which include staging new properties and looking for opportunities to bolster their financial position in the midst of the Airbnb economy's challenges.

Mindmap

Keywords

๐Ÿ’กAirbnb Economy

The 'Airbnb Economy' refers to the market dynamics and financial aspects of renting out properties on the Airbnb platform. In the video, the speaker discusses the downturn in the Airbnb economy, suggesting that while it may be struggling in many places, there are still opportunities for those who can adapt and survive the current challenges.

๐Ÿ’กSupply and Demand Bottleneck

A 'supply and demand bottleneck' occurs when there is an imbalance between the supply of goods or services and the demand for them. In the context of the video, the speaker predicts that if many Airbnb hosts quit due to poor business performance, the supply of available rentals will decrease, potentially leading to a bottleneck where demand exceeds the reduced supply, benefiting the remaining hosts.

๐Ÿ’กAlgorithm

In the video, the term 'algorithm' is used to describe the underlying processes that Airbnb uses to rank and display listings to potential guests. The speaker suggests that understanding and adapting to changes in the Airbnb algorithm could be key to navigating the current downturn in the Airbnb economy.

๐Ÿ’กCo-hosting

Co-hosting in the Airbnb context refers to a business arrangement where one party provides the property and another manages the listing and operations. The speaker mentions co-hosting as a strategic move to expand into larger property types without taking on the financial risks associated with property ownership.

๐Ÿ’กOccupancy Rate

The 'occupancy rate' is a measure of how frequently a property is booked by guests. The video discusses the impact of a low occupancy rate on the overall performance of the speaker's Airbnb business, indicating that a drop in this rate can significantly affect revenue.

๐Ÿ’กMarket Adoption

Market 'adoption' refers to the process by which new products or services become widely accepted and used in a market. The speaker talks about the current phase of Airbnb where many new hosts are joining, leading to an oversupply, but predicts that this phase will eventually stabilize as the market matures.

๐Ÿ’กFeedback Loop

A 'feedback loop' in the context of the video refers to the self-reinforcing mechanism within the Airbnb algorithm, where listings with higher occupancy rates get more visibility, leading to even higher rates, while those with lower rates fall into obscurity. The speaker suggests that this could be contributing to the current difficulties faced by some hosts.

๐Ÿ’กProperty Arbitrage

Property 'arbitrage' involves profiting from the difference in rental rates between various properties or locations. The speaker mentions using arbitrage as a strategy to stay agile and responsive to market changes, allowing for rapid expansion or contraction of their Airbnb listings.

๐Ÿ’กFree Rent Concessions

In the video, 'free rent concessions' refer to agreements with property owners where the host receives a certain period of rent-free occupancy. The speaker highlights the importance of such concessions in reducing the initial costs of setting up new Airbnb listings.

๐Ÿ’กDiversification

Diversification in this context means spreading the host's properties across various locations and types to mitigate risk. The speaker talks about the benefits of diversifying their property portfolio to avoid being overly concentrated in any single market, which can be a strategic advantage during market downturns.

๐Ÿ’กEconomic Slowdown

An 'economic slowdown' is a period of reduced economic activity. The speaker discusses the impact of a potential economic slowdown on the Airbnb market, suggesting that it could lead to a decrease in travel and demand for short-term rentals, but also presents it as an opportunity for strategic expansion.

Highlights

The Airbnb economy is facing challenges in many places, but the speaker is still looking to expand their business.

The speaker has over 150 Airbnb properties and is currently dealing with empty calendars in some buildings.

Despite the downturn, the speaker believes that surviving the current market conditions will lead to greater profits in the future due to a potential supply-demand bottleneck.

The speaker is conducting split testing to understand the Airbnb algorithm and will share findings with the audience.

The speaker has taken over the company, made significant staff cuts, and is focusing on operational efficiency.

The strategy includes adding properties in various areas to gather data and make informed decisions about the best-performing neighborhoods and property types.

The speaker is leveraging the current market downturn to acquire properties at a discount and is looking for opportunities to co-host with property owners.

Free rent concessions are a key part of the speaker's current deals, providing a significant advantage in property acquisition.

The speaker is pivoting to larger property types and wider distribution with fewer doors per property to diversify the business.

The speaker is considering expanding into Midwestern markets due to their perceived ease of operation and potential for higher margins.

There is a possibility that the Airbnb algorithm has a feedback loop issue causing a negative impact on some listings' visibility and bookings.

The speaker is avoiding purchasing property at the moment, waiting for a potential market crash to buy at a significantly lower price.

The speaker emphasizes the importance of having robust, forward-looking data to make strategic business decisions.

The speaker is focusing on co-hosting agreements and avoiding long-term commitments to remain agile in the current market.

The speaker is looking to take advantage of the current Airbnb bust by acquiring properties at lower costs and improving them to be profitable.

The speaker discusses the potential for a market correction in the travel economy and the importance of being prepared for such changes.

Transcripts

play00:00

sure the Airbnb economy is tanking in

play00:02

most places but if you plan on still

play00:04

being here when winter ends you're going

play00:07

to want to watch videos like this I am

play00:09

picking up 16 more doors here in Houston

play00:10

I'm sitting in one of the buildings we

play00:12

just listed this one about four hours

play00:14

ago I'm going to tell you what my plan

play00:16

is show you what properties we're

play00:17

picking up and why what we're looking

play00:19

for the terms of the deal and how we're

play00:20

making lemonade from the proverbial

play00:22

lemon that is the Airbnb bust and if any

play00:25

of you fancy yourself business people or

play00:27

want to be there's going to be a whole

play00:28

lot of gems in this video Let's jump in

play00:31

Welcome Back YouTube world yes I have a

play00:33

150 something airbnbs and we're looking

play00:36

at some empty calendars in some of our

play00:38

buildings right actually we have a

play00:40

couple buildings that are completely

play00:41

empty right now now a lot of our

play00:42

buildings are still performing fine and

play00:44

I have some theories about what the

play00:45

algorithm is doing and the mechanics of

play00:47

it so stay tuned for that I will be

play00:49

announcing my findings on some split

play00:50

testing that I'm doing but in the

play00:52

meantime there is a right way through

play00:54

this and I think I'm gonna give you guys

play00:57

the right way through this first off can

play00:59

I give you some business advice advice

play01:00

even if 90 of the Airbnb Community gets

play01:04

their butts kicked and they all go out

play01:05

of business that means that there will

play01:07

be 10 of hosts left and all of the

play01:09

guests that would ever be there next

play01:11

year will still be coming back next year

play01:13

which means that there would be a supply

play01:15

and demand bottleneck that is inverse to

play01:17

the one that we're looking at right now

play01:18

right now there's just too much Supply

play01:20

like there's honestly just too much

play01:21

Supply in the market for the amount of

play01:23

demand that there is meaning that a lot

play01:24

of hosts won't get bookings on Airbnb

play01:27

because there's just too many hosts and

play01:29

not enough guests which means some

play01:30

people will quit and those that quit

play01:33

will cease to be here and thus there

play01:35

will be less Supply and when demand

play01:38

stays the same or continues to grow

play01:40

which is what we're expecting in the

play01:41

travel economy they'll just be less

play01:43

Supply because people quit meaning that

play01:45

the people who survive this right now if

play01:47

you survive this right now you will make

play01:48

more money in the back end just like

play01:49

what happened with covid when covet hit

play01:51

a lot of Supply left the market for

play01:53

various reasons people just thought it

play01:55

wasn't worth it they didn't think it was

play01:56

safe demand dropped travel regulations

play01:58

meant that people couldn't travel level

play02:00

which meant there's there's no way to do

play02:02

Commerce and people just left then

play02:04

Revenge travel happened and the man

play02:07

started to spike again because the money

play02:09

was good we're in a volatile supply and

play02:11

demand cycle with this and it will

play02:13

eventually normalize because right now

play02:14

we're still in a phase of a lot of

play02:16

adoption there's a lot of new people

play02:17

trying to join Airbnb a lot of people

play02:19

see this as a cool opportunity they want

play02:21

to get into it and so what happens is as

play02:23

we go through this growth phase where a

play02:24

lot of people are Moonlighting the idea

play02:26

of becoming a host and enjoying the

play02:28

marketplace they'll either succeed or

play02:29

fail as soon as we grind through the

play02:32

vast majority of people who could ever

play02:34

become a host or whatever consider it

play02:35

there will be a slowing of growth on the

play02:38

supply side because the people who've

play02:40

tried have either succeeded or failed

play02:42

and left and there will be less new

play02:43

people to try because it's a lot easier

play02:45

to pick up adoption on the traveler side

play02:47

than it is to pick up adoption on the

play02:49

host side there are less business owner

play02:51

entrepreneurial types in this in the

play02:52

world than there are Travelers so we are

play02:54

still going through this phase of

play02:55

washing out on the host side what I'm

play02:57

trying to tell you is that yes post

play02:59

covet a lot of people joined yes 2012 14

play03:02

15 17 a lot of people joined now after

play03:05

the air being bust there might be still

play03:07

a lot of people joining because a lot of

play03:08

people are prospecting for new business

play03:09

ideas but these Cycles will start to end

play03:12

because a lot of the people who would

play03:14

ever consider becoming hosts will have

play03:16

already been there done that either

play03:18

failed or are currently hosting so we're

play03:20

gonna see less of a boom and bust cycle

play03:23

as adoption slows on the supply side and

play03:26

starts to stabilize I do think that

play03:27

that's going to happen that's a business

play03:29

thing you guys can disagree with me yell

play03:31

at me in the comments if you think I

play03:33

don't know anything about business I'm

play03:34

theorizing here so what are we doing

play03:36

with this economy well we've got

play03:38

properties that are working out we've

play03:40

got properties that are not and we're

play03:42

going through the data we're looking at

play03:44

why some of our properties are

play03:45

successful but more so also where

play03:47

they're successful because I think wear

play03:49

actually matters more than why right now

play03:51

and then we're looking at where and why

play03:53

we're not successful in some spots we're

play03:55

also cutting staff I sadly have had to

play03:58

take over the company I don't think I've

play03:59

told any of you guys yet Haley's no

play04:01

longer leading the organization and

play04:02

since then I've made roughly six

play04:04

thousand dollars per week in staff Cuts

play04:07

that's really heartbreaking I'll be

play04:08

honest I don't like having to cut back

play04:09

on staff or take away a job from

play04:11

somebody who's legitimately a good

play04:12

person but we have had some people who

play04:14

are just not doing the work we actually

play04:16

even found some instances of time theft

play04:18

and stuff like that that's what happens

play04:19

when you take a year off things get a

play04:21

little bit funky while you're gone so

play04:23

I'm back in cleaning house blah blah so

play04:25

we're leaning up but now we're also

play04:26

adding properties we're adding

play04:28

properties in more areas and more

play04:30

neighborhoods near where we already

play04:32

operate to get a wider base of data see

play04:36

we have a lot of buildings and some of

play04:37

those buildings have as many as 40 doors

play04:39

in them with the airbnbust I do think

play04:41

there's a mechanic here so we're

play04:42

actually scaling back on size I don't

play04:44

think we want to go 40 doors deep in any

play04:45

building right now because of this you

play04:48

know economic slowdown and what could be

play04:50

a very risky Nuance in the algorithm

play04:52

which I'm going to explain closer to the

play04:53

end of this video we want more data

play04:55

because if the economy continues to stay

play04:57

rough and travel starts to lean out too

play04:59

and demand and doesn't grow like it has

play05:01

been or the slow season lasts longer

play05:03

than normal whatever and people start to

play05:05

deflate there's going to be a cool

play05:06

opportunity here as long as we have the

play05:08

right data if we pick up three or five

play05:10

or ten properties here there and there

play05:12

and just have a bunch of different

play05:13

buildings with some sample size we can

play05:16

look for the best performing

play05:17

neighborhoods property types property

play05:18

sizes based on our internal data and

play05:21

with how fast everything is moving right

play05:23

now looking at analytics from Air DNA or

play05:25

mesh visor is not going to serve us

play05:26

that's back looking data we need

play05:29

forward-looking data so we need

play05:31

projections on our calendars we need to

play05:32

see which calendars of ours are filling

play05:34

up with good lead time we need to see

play05:35

what design styles are are being

play05:37

responded to well and internal data is

play05:39

going to be the best way to do this so

play05:40

adding properties in various areas even

play05:42

though the Market's scary right now

play05:44

still gives us the data that we need to

play05:45

Pivot and respond on robust data and as

play05:48

people start to leave this industry

play05:50

they're going to be letting go of

play05:51

furniture I got a phone call maybe two

play05:53

days ago or a text two days ago somebody

play05:55

said hey I have nine units that I would

play05:58

like to know if you want to take them

play06:00

and I'm seeing it all over Facebook

play06:01

where somebody's like hey I'm thinking

play06:03

about getting the Airbnb you have any

play06:04

advice and somebody's like um I actually

play06:06

have a property in this location I'm

play06:07

trying to get out of are you interested

play06:09

so there's a lot of changing hands and

play06:10

when people are changing hands in a

play06:12

hurry they'll get rid of stuff at a

play06:14

discount because they just need to know

play06:15

that they're going to stop losing money

play06:16

you know we have housekeepers we pay by

play06:18

the hour we have Elegant pricing

play06:19

strategy systems that might allow us to

play06:21

generate slightly more Revenue at a

play06:23

lower operating cost than some of our

play06:26

other host partners and friends who are

play06:28

getting out of the space and also we

play06:30

should have the data to know that maybe

play06:32

they're just missing one or two

play06:33

amenities or maybe their design Styles

play06:35

just missing a key element here which

play06:37

will allow us to pick up properties and

play06:38

to pick up properties on the cheap where

play06:40

we know that we can be profitable with

play06:42

those properties where someone else

play06:43

would fail that's a huge opportunity for

play06:45

us right now in the bust yeah we're

play06:47

going to cut some doors because I don't

play06:49

want to have 40 doors in one building

play06:51

and have everything go you know part of

play06:53

my French but we want to keep picking up

play06:55

doors in other areas in other

play06:57

neighborhoods and start to really

play06:59

scatter our presence three or five doors

play07:02

at a time into as many different

play07:04

neighborhoods and property types as we

play07:06

can get our hands on another key element

play07:07

of our deals and it hasn't changed since

play07:10

forever but it's so important right now

play07:12

is free rent concessions we got nine

play07:14

weeks of rent for free on this property

play07:16

right here that's important because nine

play07:18

weeks of free rent on 16 doors which we

play07:21

could do up to six zero at this building

play07:24

I just don't think we're gonna go that

play07:25

big but we could we've got this

play07:27

open-ended agreement and if this

play07:29

property slams then yeah we'll keep

play07:31

picking up 30 40 50 maybe as many as 60

play07:33

max if you get nine weeks of rent for

play07:35

free and your rent is fifteen hundred

play07:37

dollars a month then you're looking at

play07:39

nearly forty five hundred dollars in

play07:40

free rent per property you pick up and

play07:42

the average cost of furnish a place not

play07:44

including like doing paint and other

play07:46

Decor stuff would be about forty five

play07:48

hundred dollars this is essentially

play07:49

getting us our furniture for free when

play07:51

we get nine weeks of rent for free this

play07:53

is an important part of the deal here so

play07:55

as we continue to expand and have free

play07:57

rents this will add to our cash balance

play08:00

and having a stronger cash position is

play08:02

always good when people are looking to

play08:04

get rid of stuff so yes even in a scary

play08:06

economy some deals will just look too

play08:09

good to let go of because of the literal

play08:11

cash mechanics now because we will be

play08:13

changing out locations one thing that we

play08:15

are doing as we like downsize some

play08:18

properties and then spread more thin

play08:19

which sounds bad but it's actually less

play08:22

bad because you're more Diversified

play08:23

across more properties is we will have

play08:25

an abundance of furniture in some cases

play08:27

so we're going to start co-hosting under

play08:30

a modified agreement we actually want to

play08:32

go up in property size we want to do

play08:34

more three beds more four beds because

play08:35

we have a lot of one beds in studios

play08:37

right now so as we diversify our mix

play08:39

we're going to be looking for more three

play08:40

bedroom or four bedroom floor plans so

play08:42

we could get some three bedroom

play08:43

apartments we're working on negotiations

play08:45

with some of our current landlords right

play08:46

now for those three bedroom and four

play08:48

bedrooms tend to be more single-family

play08:49

home and since we have a lot of

play08:51

furniture that we could put into play we

play08:52

can find homeowners who don't have

play08:54

furniture but want to be an Airbnb we'll

play08:56

co-host for them and provide the

play08:58

furniture everybody wins that's another

play08:59

element of our pivot here in the

play09:01

airbnbust and as you guys know I say

play09:04

everybody should fire their co-host the

play09:06

reason why is because the deal is just

play09:08

too good for the co-host with that said

play09:10

we're not dumb enough to not take a

play09:12

co-host deal right it's probably the

play09:14

best deal you can get as an Airbnb

play09:16

operator is to have somebody trust you

play09:18

and not really have you take on any of

play09:21

the risk as an operator with a track

play09:22

record we can get homeowners who will

play09:24

let us operate we don't have to pay

play09:26

their mortgage we don't have to pay any

play09:27

rent we just take a cut of the revenue

play09:29

that's a really good deal for us so

play09:31

we're expanding into larger property

play09:32

types wider distribution with less door

play09:34

counts per property and getting into

play09:36

more co-host deals now this could go a

play09:38

couple different ways depending on what

play09:40

really is at play here now Airbnb could

play09:43

very well have just this weird winter

play09:46

release related bug that is starting to

play09:48

squash some of our buildings right we've

play09:50

got two or three total apartments that

play09:52

just have really Grim occupancy at the

play09:54

moment and it's weighing down our total

play09:56

occupancy where we normally have an

play09:58

average occupancy of over 90 percent

play09:59

then we've been operating more in the

play10:01

low 80s as a whole and even last week I

play10:04

think we dropped into the 70s 70 percent

play10:07

something as an average percentage

play10:08

across our whole portfolio so some of

play10:10

our buildings are weighing down our

play10:12

total occupancy which is really really

play10:13

bad but we're going to try to fix it and

play10:16

if it is an Airbnb bug it might just

play10:19

remediate itself when Airbnb updates

play10:22

we've had reports from hosts that claim

play10:24

the last time that there was a summer

play10:25

release that they just had two months

play10:26

without a single inquiry and then they

play10:28

called Tech at Airbnb and they reset

play10:30

something and all of a sudden they were

play10:32

booked again now this could be because

play10:33

the Airbnb algorithm has a feedback loop

play10:36

type of data problem inside of it which

play10:38

is where if you don't get any views you

play10:40

don't get any bookings if you don't have

play10:41

bookings you don't have occupancy and if

play10:43

you don't have occupancy then you can't

play10:45

get any views or bookings because the

play10:46

algorithm thinks that you're not

play10:48

interesting because you don't have

play10:49

anybody booking your place and so this

play10:51

kind of negative feedback loop could

play10:52

cause a need for a reset where you go

play10:54

and either snooze your listing and

play10:55

update it or get Airbnb to do a hard

play10:57

reset on your listing in order to reset

play10:59

its position within the algorithm

play11:01

something like that and so if the winner

play11:03

release is causing a lot of people to

play11:04

lose their heads it could be very well

play11:06

just as easy as waiting it out six or so

play11:08

weeks waiting for a bunch of people to

play11:10

shut down their listings and then have

play11:11

Airbnb reset your presence in the

play11:14

algorithm and give you another fresh

play11:15

shot something like that now people do

play11:17

need to legitimately quit to lower the

play11:19

amount of Supply in the space before you

play11:21

went and tried to swing for the fence

play11:22

like that but that is potentially one of

play11:25

the outcomes here otherwise this could

play11:27

be really just a much lower slow season

play11:30

for some people than anybody predicted

play11:32

and we won't find that data out until

play11:35

Airbnb does their Q4 reporting and I

play11:37

think sometime in January maybe February

play11:39

they're like hey here's what happened in

play11:41

December possibly because this could be

play11:43

just a lower relative slow season due to

play11:45

the fact that there's more total Supply

play11:46

in the market but just as low of a

play11:48

demand as last year right where there's

play11:50

literally the same net number of

play11:51

customers but maybe now twice the number

play11:53

of hosts yeah it'll feel really really

play11:55

bad but then it'll snap back more to a

play11:57

corrective space where where more people

play12:00

will get bookings in a month or two when

play12:02

slow season starts to remediate itself

play12:04

now I do think that it's possible that

play12:06

the Airbnb feedback loop could have a

play12:08

bug inside of it where with a lower than

play12:10

expected market-wide demand it could

play12:13

take some of the middling listings and

play12:15

cause us infinitely negative feedback

play12:18

loop that pushes listings from 70 60

play12:21

occupancy all the way down to zero

play12:23

because it just doesn't quite get the

play12:25

performance metrics that the algorithm

play12:27

is built for and this is now because

play12:29

Airbnb is like well we'll always have

play12:31

this much Demand right and then we don't

play12:33

and so then the algorithm doesn't have a

play12:35

sustainable enough amount of interest to

play12:38

keep these listings afloat because

play12:39

Airbnb does call their algorithm and

play12:41

interest algorithm which means that they

play12:43

push listings Up and Down based on

play12:46

interest metrics and so since we have

play12:48

low demand and too many listings many

play12:51

more listings will have a sub sufficient

play12:53

amount of interest and just get pushed

play12:55

down which means a lot of people quit

play12:57

and when a lot of people quit and the

play12:59

listing account starts to normalize you

play13:01

could literally get back into search

play13:02

again just by resetting your position

play13:04

within the algorithm because we're going

play13:06

to be doing more co-hosting with houses

play13:08

it could be possible with the way that

play13:11

we're generating leads for these houses

play13:12

that will end up in non-core areas we

play13:15

might end up in just really weird Middle

play13:17

Market Oklahoma City Boise Idaho just

play13:21

random places we'll be looking for more

play13:23

Midwestern markets to start to get our

play13:25

foothold in and to remotely manage some

play13:28

co-host properties could be fine for us

play13:30

because we have so much experience in

play13:31

being a multi-city contender that we

play13:33

could operate probably 10 or 12

play13:35

different new cities that are like like

play13:37

easy markets right Midwestern markets

play13:39

tend to be more easy because there's not

play13:41

really elegant host Supply out there

play13:44

which means the guests are more easily

play13:45

impressed you get better total margins

play13:47

stuff like that I do think that managing

play13:49

10 or so new cities and Midwestern

play13:52

markets that are less competitive is a

play13:53

good idea and this could increase of

play13:55

course our robustness and everything

play13:56

else as we do expand into larger

play13:58

property types and coasting I do expect

play14:00

you'll find my name in less major busy

play14:04

urban areas where of course we've always

play14:05

been Dallas Fort Worth Houston Austin

play14:07

Philadelphia you're going to see things

play14:09

more like like I said Oklahoma City or

play14:10

smaller but as you've noticed I still

play14:12

have avoided the word buy or purchase

play14:15

we're getting into co-hosting because

play14:16

that's good cash flow we're staying in

play14:18

Arbitrage because that's allows us to be

play14:20

Scrappy get into new places and get data

play14:22

fast and really spool up or spool down

play14:24

our listings as needed but we're still

play14:26

not going to buy anything and not to

play14:28

talk bad about anybody who wants to buy

play14:30

a property but right now there is no

play14:32

value in purchasing a property where

play14:34

you're going to lose the equity of your

play14:37

down payment when the home loses value

play14:39

you know I am considering purchasing

play14:41

property for its long-term depreciative

play14:44

you know advantages and all the other

play14:45

cool stuff that comes with buying

play14:46

property eventually you know I am

play14:48

getting old now I'm 36 you know I can

play14:49

start looking at boring stuff as much as

play14:51

the fast stuff it still won't be a good

play14:53

time to buy a property in my opinion

play14:55

until we see everybody get their necks

play14:57

broke and if BlackRock is going to done

play14:59

billion millions of dollars of assets

play15:00

back in the market and other people are

play15:02

going to let go and people are going to

play15:03

quit hosting on Airbnb fire their

play15:04

co-hosts shut it down turn them back

play15:06

into long-term rentals or just sell the

play15:08

properties because they are butt hurt

play15:10

about it this could lead to a great area

play15:12

of Cheaper property over the next two or

play15:15

three years and that's what I'm looking

play15:16

for Tesla's down 60 something percent

play15:18

that's what I want for my house is I

play15:19

want to see a house down 60 percent and

play15:22

then maybe I'll buy it so if you my

play15:24

friends my loved ones if you guys have

play15:25

any plans for the bust if you have

play15:27

anything that you think is cool that

play15:29

you're trying to pull off or do feel

play15:30

free to throw in the comments I would

play15:32

love to know what you guys are up to in

play15:33

the meantime I'm going to finish staging

play15:35

these ones getting them listed and

play15:36

hopefully this part of the Houston

play15:38

Market will pump some cash and allow us

play15:41

to continue to play an aggressive game

play15:42

stay tuned of course for that thank you

play15:44

so much for watching and as always I'll

play15:46

see you on the other side

Rate This
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…
โ˜…

5.0 / 5 (0 votes)

Related Tags
Airbnb EconomyMarket AnalysisProperty ManagementBusiness StrategySupply DemandReal EstateInvestment TipsHosting AdviceMarket RecoveryCo-hosting Deals