Three Horizons Framework - a quick introduction

Summary

The Three Horizons framework by Bill Sharpe offers a tool for thinking about transformation by identifying three potential futures: H1 (the current system), H2 (disruptive innovations), and H3 (the desired future). H1 represents the status quo, which is seen as unsustainable, while H3 embodies the future we aim to create. H2 focuses on disruptive innovations that can either extend the old system (captured innovations) or contribute to the new (harnessed innovations). The framework encourages deep reflection on what is being born, what is dying, and how disruptions can be strategically harnessed to accelerate positive change.

Takeaways

• 😀 The Three Horizons Framework by Bill Sharpe is a tool to understand transformation, focusing on current, disruptive, and future systems.
• 😀 Horizon 1 (H1) represents the current dominant system, which is seen as unsustainable and ultimately in decline.
• 😀 Horizon 2 (H2) is where disruptive innovations occur, with the potential to either extend the life of H1 or help transition to H3.
• 😀 Horizon 3 (H3) represents the desired future state, which is regenerative and distributive, focusing on sustainability and equity.
• 😀 H2 innovations can be either 'H2-' (reinforcing the old system) or 'H2+' (helping bring about the new future).
• 😀 The framework encourages exploring strategic questions to understand what’s changing, what’s dying, and what’s emerging.
• 😀 Disruptive innovations like digital platforms can either reinforce old structures (H2-) or help shape a better future (H2+).
• 😀 The framework is a tool for deeper discussions and strategy workshops, allowing participants to explore key transformation questions.
• 😀 Key strategic questions include identifying the decline of H1, the future vision of H3, and how disruptions can be harnessed for positive change.
• 😀 The framework can be used to assess whether disruptive innovations are captured by old systems (H2-) or help bring about the future we want (H2+).

Q & A

What is the Three Horizons Framework?

The Three Horizons Framework is a tool for thinking about transformation, offering a way to analyze and guide change through three different timeframes or 'horizons': H1 (business as usual), H2 (disruptive innovations), and H3 (the desired future). It helps to frame discussions about the future and encourages new insights and approaches to transformation.

What are the three horizons in the framework?

The three horizons in the framework are: H1 (business as usual), which is the dominant way of doing things today but is seen as unsustainable; H2 (disruptive innovations), which represents the dynamic space of change between H1 and H3, where disruptions and innovations emerge; and H3 (the desired future), which represents the future we want to bring about, characterized by sustainable, equitable systems.

What is Horizon 1 (H1) and why is it considered problematic?

Horizon 1 (H1) represents the current dominant system or 'business as usual.' It is considered problematic because it is seen as unsustainable and contains the seeds of its own demise, meaning that it is not fit for the future and will eventually decline due to its inherent flaws, such as being divisive or degenerative.

How does Horizon 3 (H3) differ from Horizon 1 (H1)?

Horizon 3 (H3) is the future we aspire to create, characterized by regenerative and distributive systems. Unlike H1, which is considered unsustainable, H3 envisions a future where systems are more sustainable, equitable, and bring humanity within safe ecological boundaries, such as the 'donut economy.' H3 represents a shift away from the problems of H1 toward a more positive future.

What role does Horizon 2 (H2) play in the Three Horizons Framework?

Horizon 2 (H2) is the arena of disruptive innovation. It is the space where new technologies, ideas, or movements emerge and can either reinforce H1 or help transition to H3. H2 is crucial because it offers a mix of both positive and negative disruptions, where innovations can either extend the life of old systems (H2-) or support the transition to the desired future (H2+).

What is the difference between H2- and H2+ innovations?

H2- innovations are disruptions that reinforce or extend the life of the existing, unsustainable systems (H1). An example would be platforms like Uber, which use new technologies but maintain exploitative business models. In contrast, H2+ innovations are those that help move society toward the desired future (H3), such as new technologies or business models that support distributive ownership and fairer systems.

How does the Three Horizons Framework encourage strategic thinking?

The Three Horizons Framework encourages strategic thinking by prompting key questions about the present, the future, and the innovations needed to bridge the gap. It helps identify what systems are dying (H1), what new possibilities are emerging (H3), and how to harness disruptive innovations (H2) to drive positive change, thus fostering strategic discussions about transformation and innovation.

What are some of the key questions the framework encourages when thinking about transformation?

Some key questions include: What is being born and how can we nurture it (H3)? What is dying and how can we help it let go (H1)? What disruptions are occurring, and how can we harness them to support the desired future (H2+)? The framework also encourages questions around scaling and spreading new ideas, collaborating with others, and addressing competing visions of the future.

What does the Three Horizons Framework suggest about the role of disruptions in transformation?

The framework suggests that disruptions can play a pivotal role in transformation, but they need to be carefully managed. Disruptions can either reinforce outdated systems (H2-) or support the emergence of new, regenerative systems (H2+). The goal is to harness the energy of disruptions to support the transition from H1 to H3, rather than allowing innovations to be captured by the existing system to perpetuate its decline.

How can the Three Horizons Framework be applied in a group strategy workshop?

The framework can be applied in a group strategy workshop by drawing the Three Horizons chart on a large scale and inviting participants to discuss the key characteristics of each horizon. Participants can answer questions about what is working in the present, what is failing, what the desired future looks like, and how disruptions are impacting the transition. This collaborative approach helps generate insights and ideas for transformation.