Trump Terapkan Kebijakan Tarif Impor Baru, Indonesia Harus Gimana? | JURNAL BINUSIAN

Summary

The video discusses the impact of President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs, specifically targeting Indonesia, in response to high U.S. import tariffs from other countries. It explores the economic consequences for Indonesia, particularly in key export sectors like palm oil and textiles, which could lead to reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market. Experts warn that this could push Indonesia into recession. The discussion also touches on diplomatic tensions, Indonesia’s role in global organizations like BRICS and ASEAN, and the need for a more assertive response, such as leveraging the WTO dispute resolution system.

Takeaways

• 😀 Donald Trump implemented a reciprocal tariff policy, imposing high import tariffs on several countries, including Indonesia, which now faces a 32% tariff.
• 😀 This tariff policy is a response to the high import tariffs the U.S. faces, particularly the 64% tariff from Indonesia, affecting trade between the two nations.
• 😀 Indonesia's economy was already struggling before the tariff policy, with issues like fluctuating stock indices (IASG), a weak rupiah, and massive layoffs due to poor investment conditions.
• 😀 Indonesia’s export commodities, such as palm oil, textiles, footwear, and others, may face reduced competitiveness in the U.S. market due to the tariff hike.
• 😀 Major U.S. companies operating in Indonesia, like Nike, could be forced to reconsider their investment and production locations, potentially leading to a decline in Indonesian exports to the U.S.
• 😀 Some economists fear that the reciprocal tariffs could lead Indonesia into a potential recession, exacerbating existing economic challenges post-COVID-19.
• 😀 Donald Trump's approach to trade, which focuses on unilateral tariffs, challenges multilateralism, and could destabilize global trade dynamics, even within the U.S. itself.
• 😀 Smaller economies and developing countries, especially those in Africa, face the brunt of high tariffs, with some nations like Madagascar unable to cope with the new trade restrictions.
• 😀 The ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions, where tariffs have been drastically raised between both nations, also affect countries like Indonesia, caught in the crossfire of a global trade war.
• 😀 Indonesia is urged to take a firm stand in response to these global challenges, particularly within ASEAN, BRICS, and other trade agreements, to avoid being overly dependent on the U.S. or Trump’s policies.

Q & A

What is the primary focus of the discussion in the transcript?

The discussion focuses on the impact of U.S. President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff policy, specifically how it affects Indonesia's economy, exports, and trade relations.

What was the reason behind Donald Trump's decision to impose reciprocal tariffs?

Trump imposed reciprocal tariffs as a response to the tariffs already placed by countries, including Indonesia, on U.S. goods, which were as high as 64%.

How has the tariff policy impacted Indonesia's economic situation?

The tariff policy has exacerbated Indonesia’s already struggling economy, with issues such as a weakening rupiah, fluctuating stock market, rising unemployment, and decreased investor confidence. This could lead to diminished competitiveness in exports, particularly in key sectors like palm oil, textiles, and footwear.

Which sectors in Indonesia are most affected by the reciprocal tariff policy?

The sectors most affected include palm oil, textiles, and footwear, as these are significant exports from Indonesia to the U.S.

What was Dr. Zaki's view on the potential for a recession in Indonesia due to these tariffs?

Dr. Zaki agreed with economists who suggested that the tariff policy could potentially lead to an economic recession in Indonesia, further destabilizing the country's post-COVID recovery.

How does Dr. Zaki perceive Donald Trump's unilateral approach to international trade?

Dr. Zaki criticizes Trump’s unilateral approach, arguing that it undermines multilateralism in global trade and creates instability by imposing tariffs on many countries, including those with small economies.

What is Dr. Zaki's recommendation for Indonesia in response to the tariff policy?

Dr. Zaki recommends that Indonesia take a stronger stance against the U.S., potentially seeking legal recourse through the World Trade Organization (WTO) instead of simply negotiating with the U.S.

How could the reciprocal tariff policy affect Indonesia's diplomatic relations with the U.S.?

The policy could strain diplomatic relations, as it challenges Indonesia’s position in global trade. Indonesia's response could influence its future trade negotiations and its standing in international organizations like ASEAN, BRICS, and WTO.

What role do organizations like ASEAN, BRICS, and WTO play in responding to Trump's tariff policy?

Organizations like ASEAN, BRICS, and WTO are important in providing a collective response to Trump's tariffs. Dr. Zaki believes that Indonesia should align with these groups to present a united front and challenge the unfair trade practices imposed by the U.S.

What are the broader implications of Trump's tariff policy on smaller economies and developing nations?

Trump’s tariff policy could severely impact smaller economies and developing nations, especially those in Africa and other regions with already fragile economies, making it harder for them to export goods to the U.S. and manage their trade relations.