Tarif Trump Berlaku! Nasib Rupiah Di Ujung Tanduk? - [Metro Hari Ini]

Summary

The script discusses the controversial decision by U.S. President Donald Trump to impose reciprocal tariffs on various countries, including Indonesia, as a response to perceived unfair trade practices. These tariffs, which could significantly affect Indonesian exports like electronics and textiles, are set to escalate tensions in global trade. Experts weigh in on the economic implications, highlighting potential challenges for Indonesia, as well as opportunities for negotiation. The discussion touches on how Trump’s approach, focused on bilateral rather than multilateral agreements, may impact trade relations and the Indonesian economy in the coming months.

Takeaways

• 😀 Donald Trump imposed a 10% basic tariff on all imported products to the U.S., along with higher tariffs for several major trading partners.
• 😀 Vietnam faces a 46% reciprocal tariff, while Indonesia's tariff is set at 32% as part of the new trade policy.
• 😀 The reciprocal tariffs, effective from April 2025, aim to address the trade imbalances and economic threats posed by unfair trade practices.
• 😀 Trump's policy is designed to impose tariffs based on the combined rate of tariffs, non-monetary barriers, and currency manipulation, targeting nations that treat the U.S. unfairly.
• 😀 The United States' trade deficit with Indonesia, calculated as 64%, is a key factor in determining the tariffs imposed on Indonesia.
• 😀 Indonesia's major exports to the U.S. include electronics, textiles, footwear, rubber, and palm oil, all of which may be affected by the new tariffs.
• 😀 Despite these tariffs, there are discussions within Indonesia about negotiating directly with the U.S. to address and potentially reduce these tariffs.
• 😀 Trump’s approach is described as unilateral and bilateral, in contrast to previous administrations' multilateral trade frameworks.
• 😀 The imposition of tariffs is also viewed as a political move to appeal to Trump's supporter base in industrial areas of the U.S., particularly in Michigan and Wisconsin.
• 😀 The Indonesian government is preparing a response to these tariffs, focusing on bilateral negotiations rather than retaliation, similar to Vietnam's approach.
• 😀 The Indonesian rupiah remains relatively stable despite these new tariff announcements, with some capital inflow seen in emerging markets like Japan.

Q & A

What is the new tariff policy announced by U.S. President Donald Trump?

President Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports to the U.S., with reciprocal tariffs for major trading partners. For countries like Vietnam and Indonesia, the tariffs are set at 46% and 32%, respectively.

How did Trump justify the implementation of these tariffs?

Trump justified the tariffs by stating that the U.S. has been treated unfairly in trade deals. He referred to the tariffs as a necessary action to counteract the trade imbalances and to protect U.S. security and economy.

How does the reciprocal tariff system work according to Trump's policy?

The reciprocal tariff system means that if another country imposes high tariffs on U.S. goods, the U.S. will respond by imposing similar or higher tariffs on goods from that country. The aim is to balance trade relationships.

What are the specific tariffs imposed on Indonesia under this policy?

Indonesia faces a 32% reciprocal tariff. This figure is based on the U.S. calculation of Indonesia’s trade deficit and perceived non-tariff barriers, including currency manipulation.

What goods from Indonesia are most likely to be impacted by these tariffs?

Indonesia's key exports affected by these tariffs include electronics, textiles, footwear, rubber, and palm oil (CPO). These sectors are labor-intensive and significant to Indonesia’s economy.

How did Indonesia calculate its trade deficit with the U.S. and how does it relate to the new tariffs?

Indonesia's trade deficit with the U.S. is $18 billion, and the U.S. imports $28 billion worth of goods from Indonesia. This results in a 64% tariff rate, which is reduced by half to 32% as per the reciprocal tariff policy.

Why is Trump not imposing a full 100% reciprocal tariff?

Trump chose to impose only a 50% reciprocal tariff rather than a full 100% to avoid overly harsh measures that could negatively affect many countries, while still addressing the perceived unfair trade practices.

What could Indonesia do in response to these tariffs?

Indonesia could engage in bilateral negotiations with the U.S. to challenge the tariff calculations and seek a reduction. Indonesia is advised to avoid retaliation and instead focus on diplomatic dialogue, similar to the approach taken by Vietnam.

What role does Trump’s bilateral approach to trade play in these tariff decisions?

Trump’s preference for bilateral trade agreements, rather than multilateral ones, means that each country is dealt with individually. This approach allows for specific tariffs to be imposed based on the perceived actions of each country, as opposed to broader, multilateral solutions.

What is the potential impact of these tariffs on the Indonesian economy?

The tariffs could significantly impact Indonesia's export sectors, especially industries that rely on labor-intensive manufacturing. The higher tariffs may increase costs for U.S. consumers, potentially reducing demand for Indonesian goods and leading to job losses in affected industries.