[FULL] Trump Naikkan Tarif Impor RI 32 Persen, Apa Dampak ke Ekonomi Indonesia? Ini Kata Ahli-DPR

Summary

The video discusses Indonesia's economic challenges, particularly the potential impact of U.S. policies like the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) and non-tariff barriers. Experts highlight the importance of trade diplomacy, negotiating new markets outside the U.S., and preparing fiscal and monetary strategies to mitigate risks. There's a focus on supporting labor-intensive industries with fiscal incentives, and preparing for worst-case scenarios to minimize economic damage. The Indonesian government is urged to act swiftly in diversifying markets and strengthening trade agreements to safeguard the economy against external shocks.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia must seize opportunities to expand export markets beyond the United States, particularly in regions like South Africa and the MENA region.
• 😀 Diplomacy and trade negotiations are crucial for Indonesia to open new export opportunities and strengthen economic ties with other countries.
• 😀 The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) should be utilized as a key area for negotiation with the United States to gain preferential treatment for exports.
• 😀 Non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that affect Indonesia’s trade with the U.S. can be an important point of negotiation to improve trade relations.
• 😀 The Indonesian government needs to prepare both fiscal and monetary policies in case diplomatic efforts do not produce favorable results.
• 😀 Contingency plans must be in place to manage the potential negative impact of global trade disruptions, particularly on labor-intensive industries.
• 😀 Accelerating trade agreements with Europe, BRICS countries, and within the RCEP framework can help Indonesia diversify its export markets.
• 😀 Fiscal incentives should be considered to support labor-intensive industries that might be adversely affected by reduced demand or trade barriers.
• 😀 The government should prepare for worst-case economic scenarios, ensuring that there are plans to mitigate the impacts of U.S. trade policies.
• 😀 The urgency of trade diplomacy is heightened as Indonesia faces the possibility of economic challenges, including mass layoffs and declining purchasing power.
• 😀 Indonesia needs to act swiftly and strategically to secure new markets and maintain stable growth, especially in light of global economic uncertainties.

Q & A

What are the main economic challenges Indonesia faces due to trade policies mentioned in the script?

Indonesia faces challenges such as the potential for mass layoffs, a decrease in purchasing power, and an economic slowdown in the second quarter of 2025. Additionally, the U.S.'s trade policies, including non-tariff barriers and a potential end to certain trade preferences, could further strain the economy.

What is the significance of the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in Indonesia's trade negotiations?

The Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) offers trade benefits to developing countries, allowing them to export products with reduced tariffs. Indonesia could leverage this program to maintain competitive export prices, especially in light of changing U.S. policies.

How can Indonesia mitigate the impact of potential trade barriers imposed by the U.S.?

Indonesia can mitigate these impacts by negotiating trade deals with new markets outside the U.S., such as in Africa, the Middle East, or Europe. It is also suggested to expedite existing agreements, like those with BRICS and ASEAN, to secure alternative trade opportunities.

What specific economic measures are suggested for Indonesia if trade negotiations with the U.S. fail?

If trade negotiations with the U.S. fail, Indonesia should prepare fiscal and monetary measures, including industry-specific policies. This could involve providing financial incentives to labor-intensive industries, which may be hit hardest by economic shifts.

What role does diplomacy play in Indonesia's economic strategy according to the script?

Diplomacy plays a crucial role in opening new markets and securing favorable trade agreements. The script suggests that Indonesia should use diplomatic channels to negotiate better terms, such as reducing non-tariff barriers, and explore alternative export markets.

Why is there an emphasis on labor-intensive industries in the script?

Labor-intensive industries are seen as particularly vulnerable to economic downturns caused by trade disruptions. The script advocates for fiscal incentives from the government to support these industries, which could face job losses and reduced production capacity.

What is the 'worst-case scenario' mentioned in the script, and how should Indonesia prepare for it?

The 'worst-case scenario' refers to the possibility that Indonesia's trade negotiations, particularly with the U.S., could stall or fail. In this case, Indonesia should have prepared fiscal, monetary, and industry-specific policies to cushion the economy and reduce the negative impact on exports and employment.

What specific trade agreements are mentioned as potential opportunities for Indonesia?

The script mentions the importance of expediting trade agreements with Europe, BRICS, and ASEAN, as well as agreements like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), to diversify Indonesia’s export markets beyond the U.S.

What actions should Indonesia's government take to counteract the potential economic impacts of Trump's policies?

The government should be proactive in securing new trade agreements, ensuring industry-specific support, and providing fiscal incentives to labor-intensive sectors. Additionally, it should have a contingency plan in place to manage any economic disruptions that arise from trade challenges.

What is the role of the Indonesian Parliament, particularly Commission 11, in addressing the economic challenges outlined in the script?

Commission 11 of the Indonesian Parliament plays a role in pushing for policy measures that can help Indonesia address economic challenges. They are involved in discussions on trade, industry policy, and fiscal strategies to protect the economy from the impacts of external trade disruptions, including those caused by U.S. policies.