Hang Lung on Confidence in China Property

Summary

中国の不動産市場は、中央銀行が4200億円を貸し出す再貸し出しプログラムを通じて未販売住宅を購入するという注目の的です。経済刺激が市場の下振れを防ぐには十分か。問題は非常に複雑で、銀行単独の行動では解決は難しいと語られた。一方で、不動産開発者からは政府の介入が不要であり、市場は自信をもって消費者に戻ってくると期待している。また、中国政府は安価な住宅と新しい不動産モデルへのシフトについて何度も話しており、市場は健全で持続可能になる見込みであると議論された。さらに、香港の不動産市場は政治的な緊張と経済的な変化の影響を受けており、新たな環境に適応する必要があると述べられた。

Takeaways

• 🏦 中国中央銀行が4200億円の再貸し資金を提供し、未販売住宅を購入するプログラムを開始したが、その経済刺激が不動産市場の底上げに十分かは不透明。
• 🤔 中国の不動産市場の問題は非常に複雑であり、銀行単独の行動では解決は難しいと見なされている。
• 👨‍💼 地元政府が土地販売を通じて資金を得る方法がなくなった場合、新たな資金調達方法を見つける必要があると指摘。
• 🏘️ 住宅開発事業者にとっては、政府の介入が不要であり、市場が自然回復するのを待つべきだとの見解。
• 🛍️ 消費者への自信が戻れば、特に一級都市での販売が活性化するとの期待。
• 🏗️ 中国の不動産市場は過去10年や数十年とは異なる、より健全で持続可能な未来を迎えると予想。
• 📉 中国の不動産市場においては、投資家が不動産への投資を減らし、代替投資へと資金を移動していると分析。
• 📈 香港の不動産市場は、政治的要因により市場価値が低下していると述べ、特に中国からの資金流入の減少が影響していると指摘。
• 🛑 香港政府が土地供給を増加させることで、不動産価格の構造的変化が起きたと語り、価格の下落が予想される。
• 💡 香港における小売業の需要が減少中であり、特にオフィスと小売業の家賃が低下している現状を示唆。
• 🔄 香港の経済は大きな構造的変化を経験しており、新しい環境に適応し、新たなビジネスチャンスを探求する必要があると強調。

Q & A

中国政府が不動産市場を支援するために42億ドルの再貸し出しプログラムを打ち出しましたが、その効果はどの程度ですか？

問題は非常に大きいため、単一の銀行の行動では解決は難しいと考えています。これは正しい方向への一歩ですが、他の補完的な要素も必要だと思われます。

中国の不動産市場が直面している問題に対して、政府はどのように対応すべきですか？

地元政府が今後どのように土地を販売できなくなった場合に資金を得る方法を見つける必要があります。これは単なる土地販売の問題ではなく、多くの要因があります。

不動産開発業者として、政府から何を期待していますか？

私たちのビジネスにとっては、政府は必要ありません。私たちは住宅開発業者ではないため、政府の問題は私たちの問題ではありません。

消費者が自信を持つために、政府はどのような措置を講じるべきですか？

消費者が自信を持つようになれば、特に一級都市で売上が二級都市よりも低い状況が改善されると考えています。

中国の不動産市場の将来についてどう思いますか？

過去数十年とは異なる、より健全で持続可能な市場になるでしょう。投資の確実性が過去ほどはなくなり、不動産市場は中国経済にとって重要な投資手段の一つでしたが、今後はそうはならないと予想しています。

貴社の株価と市価総額比が圧力下にある理由は何だと思われますか？

中国ディスカウントや不動産セクターのディスカウント、さらに香港や中国大陸の株式への資本流入の減少が主な理由です。

市場の動向に応じて、貴社の戦略はどのように変わりますか？

株式市場での資金調達は今の評価ではしばらく控えるでしょう。また、金利が高騰しているため、大きな投資を再考することになるかもしれません。

中国のショッピングモールの売上を向上させるためにどのような取り組みを行っていますか？

消費が前年比で減少しているものの、顧客との距離を縮めて、顧客を所有しようとしています。これは以前の地主が行っていなかったアプローチです。

香港と中国の緊張が香港の不動産市場に与える影響はどの程度ですか？

アメリカが中国大陸への資金流入を制限しており、香港も中国の一部であるため影響を受けています。これは政治的な問題であり、経済的影響を及ぼしています。

香港の住宅価格が低下した背景には何がありますか？

政治的な理由により、香港政府が土地供给を制限していたことが主な要因です。しかし、政治的な状況が変化し、土地供给が増えたことで、不動産価格が下がったと考えられます。

香港の不動産市場の将来についてどう予想されますか？

過去50年間で最大の構造的な変化が起こっているため、不動産価格の下落は予想されます。しかし、新しい環境に適応し、新たな香港の未来に向けて前向きであることが重要です。

Outlines

00:00

🏢 中国不動産市場の現状と政府の対策

中国の不動産市場は大きな問題に直面しており、中央銀行が4200億元を貸し出すリセールプログラムを始めた。しかし、この対策が市場の下支えになるかどうかは疑問の声もある。議論では、単一の金融機関による対策では解決できないとされ、土地販売ができなくなった地方政府の財政収入の問題も提起された。また、企業側からは政府の介入が不要であり、市場が回復するのを待つという意見も表明された。

05:03

📉 中国の不動産開発者と香港市場の動向

中国の不動産開発者と香港市場の動向について語られた。開発者は政府からの支援は必要ないと主張し、市場の自己調整を期待する。香港市場においては、価格対帳簿比率が低いとされ、中国からの資金流出が影響していると分析された。また、消費率の低下にもかかわらず、過去の記録と比較して売上は良好であり、顧客との関係を強化することに注力しているという戦略も紹介された。

10:04

🏙️ 香港不動産市場の変動と政治的要因

香港の不動産市場における価格の変動とその背後にある政治的要因について議論された。英国統治時代からの土地価格政策や中国からの影響、住民の土地所有率、政治運動による政府の政策阻害などが、過去50年間で香港の不動産価格を高めに維持してきた要因とされ、それが変化している現状について触れた。

15:06

🛑 香港の不動産市場における構造的変化

香港の不動産市場における構造的変化とそれに伴う影響について語られた。過去の暴力事件や政治的要因が市場に与える影響と、それによって供給が増加し価格が下がることを分析した。また、開発業者の動向や市場へのアプローチの変化、さらには低金利環境からの脱却が不動産市場に与える影響についても触れられた。

20:07

💼 企業戦略の見直しと香港の将来

企業戦略の見直しと香港の将来について語られた。不動産市場の変動を受けて、企業は戦略を見直す必要があるとされ、特に大規模な開発プロジェクトの取り組み方について考察された。また、香港における政治的・経済的な変動と、それに対する適応の重要性についても議論された。

Keywords

💡再貸与プログラム

これは中央銀行が不動産市場を支援するために42億ドルを提供することを意味します。ビデオではこれが不動産業市場の底を支えるのに十分かについて議論されていますが、その結果として市場はどのように反応するかはまだ不透明です。

💡不動産市場のスパイラル

これは不動産業が価格の暴落や需要の低下といった悪循環に陥っていることを指します。ビデオでは専門家が市場が改善するためには単一の政策では不十分であり、他の要素も必要であると述べています。

💡土地売却

これは地方政府が土地を売却して資金を調達するという従来の方法を指しており、ビデオではそのような方法が今後は行えなくなると予想されています。これは不動産市場に大きな影響を与える可能性があります。

💡投資家の信頼

これは消費者が市場に参加するために必要とされる心証を指します。ビデオでは消費者が自信をもって消費に進むことが不動産市場の回復につながると述べられています。

💡需要の動向

これは消費者がどのような商品やサービスを求めているかを表します。ビデオでは一線都市と二線都市の間で需要の差が指摘されており、市場の分析において重要な要素です。

💡不動産投資

これは中国人が株式市場と比較して不動産に多くを投資していることを指します。ビデオでは不動産投資が中国経済にとって重要な投資手段であり、今後もその傾向が続くかが議論されています。

💡市場の可視性

これは市場の将来についての見通しを指します。ビデオでは市場が変動しているため、開発者が投資を検討する際には可視性が重要な要素になると述べられています。

💡市場の構造的変化

これは香港の不動産市場が過去50年間で大きな変化を経験し、これからもその傾向が続くことを指します。ビデオではその変化が不動産価格にどのような影響を与えるかについて議論されています。

💡政治的要因

これは政治の動向が経済や不動産市場に与える影響を指します。ビデオでは中国とアメリカの緊張関係が香港の経済にどのような影響を与えるかについて触れられています。

💡経済的再調整

これは世界経済が新しい状況に適応する必要性を指します。ビデオでは香港が中国との関係を経済的に見直すことが今後の成長に重要であると述べられています。

💡市場の見通し

これは将来の市場動向についての予測を指します。ビデオでは市場がどのように動くかについての見通しが不透明であり、開発者が計画を立てることが難しくなると述べられています。

Highlights

中国央行启动了420亿人民币的再贷款计划，用于购买未售出的房产。

专家认为单一的银行行动无法解决复杂的房地产市场问题，需要更多补充措施。

地方政府如何适应不再通过出售土地获得收入的新局面。

非住宅开发商认为政府不应干预，市场应自行调节。

消费者信心对于提振一线城市房地产市场至关重要。

中国政府多次提到经济适用房和需要转向新的房地产模式。

未来中国的房地产市场将与过去几十年有很大不同，将更健康、更可持续。

中国房地产市场不再像过去那样是唯一的投资工具。

公司股价和市净率受到市场压力，但公司管理层认为没有压力。

香港和中国内地的房地产估值很低，部分原因是资金流出。

公司可能不会很快在当前估值下利用股市，需要重新考虑市场策略。

由于消费率下降，公司在中国的商场正在采取措施提振销售。

美国停止资金流向中国内地，也影响了香港。

香港房地产市场面临的挑战不仅仅是经济原因，还有政治因素。

香港政府现在可以更合理地供应土地，这可能导致房地产价格下降。

对于开发商和大家族来说，市场的变化将迫使他们调整行为。

尽管租金下降，但对于香港来说，这可能是一件好事，有助于商业创新。

开发商不再购买土地可能会影响香港的低税收政策。

随着市场结构的快速变化，价格调整是不可避免的。

尽管当前市场存在挑战，但香港仍然存在大量机会。

公司未来的愿景将需要对市场变化做出反应，并更快地适应。

公司可能需要调整其投资策略，转向更小的项目和更深入的垂直市场。

尽管市场给予公司的估值很低，但公司仍在寻找投资机会。

最好的投资是投资自己，不断提升自己的价值。

Transcripts

Atrial China property is in the spotlight with the central bank

unleashing for 42 billion for a re lending program to buy unsold homes.

Will the stimulus be enough, in your opinion, to put a floor under the

spiralling property market? I think the problem is so big and so

complicated that it is not one single action on the part of the banks of the

country that can really resolve the situation.

So I think it's a step in the right direction, but I think there's a lot

other complementing element that needs to be there.

For example, moving forward, how do you how do local government get money if you

can no longer sell land like they have done in the last 20, 30 years?

So there's a lot of pieces to it, and that's a useful piece to it.

Well, you're very China centric, so as a property developer there, what would you

like to see more from the government to ensure that the future of this market?

Well, for our business, we really don't need the government in a sense.

We are not residential developers. So, so.

So that's their problem, not our problem.

And the developer, private developers problem, not our problem.

So from our perspective, just leave us alone.

In time we will come back and will buy more land.

Well, that's his problem, not mine. I'm sure the shedding and everything,

but that's the reality, as rightly mentioned, where mostly in the

discretionary high end retail. So that's a very sort of different set

of market dynamics. What we're really looking for is

confidence. When the consumers have more confidence,

especially in the first tier cities where sales are actually lower than in

second tier cities. The first tier cities need the

confidence boost. And when that happens, then I think the

consumers will come back. Well, speaking of longer term, and also

something for you to think about, something has the Chinese government has

talked about affordable housing multiple times and the need to shift to a new

property model. Now.

What do you think the future of property would look like in China?

It'll be very different from what it was the past decade or a couple of decades.

You know, I think it'll be healthier, it'll be more sustainable both

financially, but hopefully also physically.

That's something that we're looking at. Obviously, we're not the big massive

developers doing a lot of residential that I think you're referring to, where

on a much smaller scale. But I think that know the market has to

change. It's not going to be as sort of a sure

win in terms of investments. One of the reasons why property was so

important to the Chinese economy, one of the reasons was because it was one of

the few investment tools.

You know, Amy just now talked about, you know, her best investment was in

alternatives. And in China, I think most people's best

investment has been in the alternative of real estate rather than in the stock

market, which was relatively underdeveloped and not really reliable.

And so everybody had put their their money into real estate.

And I don't think that will be quite as certain for retail investors as it was

in the past and to point out a shifting point in time.

And for your company specifically. We mentioned that your Hong Kong China

specific currently your price to book multiples and share prices are under

pressure. What's your take on that?

Well, first of all, I don't think there's any pressure.

Everybody's in hell. Everybody is signing on to seven or

whatever, which is ridiculous, obviously.

So if ever is at that level, we're selling at that level.

Well, well, I understand why we're selling at that

level. I'll let you explain it if you want to.

But for other people, it's different reasons.

You shouldn't really be talking to me because I have a pretty bad track

record. Could just tell you guys a story.

15 years ago, 21 real estate developers from mainland China belonging to a real

estate association came to see me in Hong Kong.

And I told them, I said, You know, if your association of 100 members in 15,

20 years, 20 of you will, 20 of you will make a

lot of money and 5% of the total will be tons of money, and then 50% of you will

be gone bankrupt. The rest of you will be okay.

But it won't be particularly good, particularly bad.

I was totally wrong. I said 50% will go bankrupt.

95% went bankrupt. So my my track record is terrible, you

know? So I better shut up and let the young

person, younger generation talk. I think more broadly speaking, in this

part of the world. All the real estate developers are

underperforming. All of our price to books are very low,

and there's many reasons for that. Obviously, there's a huge China

discount, there's a huge real estate sector discount.

And then, of course, as we all know, a lot of capital has not been flowing into

Hong Kong or mainland Chinese stocks since it's been flowing out.

And for that reason, that I think is the main reason why our valuations are so

low and so sort of despicable today. What does that mean for your strategy?

Have you thought about shifting geographic focus or strategy?

Well, I mean, for us, it means that we're probably not going to be tapping

the stock market anytime soon at this valuation, first of all.

But it definitely does force you to look at the market a little bit differently.

Interest rates, I think, have a bigger impact than our valuation on our

decision making. And when you're in a high interest rate

environment, which we are, relatively speaking today, that definitely is going

to cause you to slow down or reconsider some of your big investments.

And for your malls in China with the consumption rate down.

What are you doing to boost sales there? Well, first of all, consumption is down

on last year. Last year was a record year.

We're roughly back to 20, 22 levels. And 2022 was a record year.

You know, during COVID, many of you will remember actually mainland China, luxury

retail sales almost tripled. So we're at a very high base right now.

So, yes, we've come down a half a notch, but we're still doing very, very well,

much better than pre-COVID, something like more than doubled pre-COVID.

So. So, first of all, the baseline is that

we're actually not doing so badly. And I think that, you know, we just have

to make sure that we're investing appropriately.

We've done a lot in terms of getting closer to the consumer.

And I think that each industry will have a slightly different approach.

But our approach has been to to really try to own the customer in a way that we

haven't done, that landlords haven't done previously.

I want to touch upon something that you mentioned earlier, the flow of money

into Hong Kong and the pressure that the city is facing as a whole with Hong Kong

standing on the front lines between China-U.S.

tensions. There's this rhetoric growing from the

U.S. side that Hong Kong equates China.

And how how should we view these risks of the global community no longer seeing

Hong Kong as international and how to address them?

But the risk is real. America is stopping a lot of money from

coming from flowing to mainland China. And because Hong Kong now part of China.

So they don't want them to follow Hong Kong as well.

So it's it's all politics. So let's make sure in our own head that

we get it clear that something is real economics, something is political and

political things to win changes. But it may not change quickly, but

sooner or later it will change. So let's not look at a political event

and think that this is an economic event only.

Of course, it affects the economy and it affects our business and many others

business. But it's really a political

dimension to it that, you know, beyond our control.

I think all the time, the whole world will have to readjust whole world to

rebalance in what shape and form? We're not 100% sure.

Some thoughts, some ideas on it. But, you know, it's not going to be the

same as before. And so let's make sure.

My message to everyone is let's make sure that our heads are clear what is

political and what is purely economical. And so, you know, when it comes to

political market, wow. Is a wild place.

And taking this issue back to Hong Kong property.

The residential prices are now are at levels even below before the government

scrapped all the buying curbs. What what do you think is the reason

behind this? Well, first of all, I think a lot of

people don't analyze the fundamental. Economic reason why Hong Kong's real

estate is market is being challenged. To me, it's a rather simple one.

I've been observing this market and I've been in play in playing in this market

for the last 40 some years. First of all, under the British high

land price policy, they still deny it, but it's crazy to deny it

that way. The British companies can repatriate a

lot more because of less tax here and because of the high land price policy,

you don't have to have high taxes. So they get to repatriate more.

For Hong Kong people, it's not a bad thing either, you know, in fact, make

people feel good when the real estate prices go up

and the government can have low salary tax as well as corporate tax.

So there are many good, good points. So the British is the first one that

really kept real estate prices up. The second one is Beijing.

In the negotiation of 1984, 1997, Beijing was afraid that the British will

sell a lot of land at high prices and and take their money out.

And so they make sure that there's only 50 hectares

per year of supply. So with limited supply of land, prices

continue to go up. Number two, Number three, the Hong Kong

people, 60%, roughly, of Hong Kong people own

their own homes. We don't want to see prices fall.

And and real estate is such big has become such a big thing in the economy.

You use it to mortgage to start a business somewhere for example.

And then finally the the yellow ribbon people, the the the anti-government

people, the so-called pro-Democrat people.

They're not Democrat. Don't be fooled by them again.

Anyway. So so so those guys anything the Hong

Kong government want to do, anything the president wanted to do, they said no.

So the Hong Kong government want to sell the land and they said no.

So, you know, they they probably hate developers, those guys, but they ended

up helping the developers keep prices up.

And so when you think about it for 50 years, starting roughly in the

seventies, that these four groups of people have limited the land supply of

Hong Kong. And as a result, there's no no place to

go for real estate prices is up. However, with the 219 riot on the

street, which is so violent, it's unbelievable what is so violent and the

police is so restrained. I just want to clear again in history

that, oh,

those guys are now because of the national security law and out of the

before Article 23. So the opposition, which is purely for

political reasons, again, not economic reasons, they damage Hong Kong

economically for their own political gain.

So as a result, once that is removed for the first time in 50 years, that the

Hong Kong government can finally supply land in a more reasonable, more

economically sensible way, that means more sufficient.

And so when that happens, the after 50 years of high land price policy, how can

real estate prices come down? So what's the big deal now?

Of course, I know if you own a apartment, it's a big deal.

Or if you want to buy an apartment, well, and you're happy.

It's a big deal too. You're happy.

But overall, when you look at the economy and look at the Hong Kong real

estate sector, we are seeing the biggest structural change in 50 years.

And so for prices to go down is to be expected, right?

Isn't it? It's so clear.

What does that mean for the developers and the big families here?

I can't that's not my problem. And you invited the wrong guy to come

and speak in Hong Kong.

We have basically a rental properties and we're suffering office prices down,

retail prices. Okay,

So we don't sell that many residential. I think that's some very honest

developers have said already went on to buy land in what.

Well, if prices come back, I think they will.

But fundamentally, because the market has

changed, so the behaviour of the developers will also change according to

the environment outside. And so

what will happen to them? I don't know.

We'll see. We will see.

You have some development at a cash rich.

Are they buying? I see.

I think some of those guys will buy. But there are also others who are quite,

quite, quite strapped for cash. So I think it's a the market is really

evolving. I don't want to jump to a conclusion

when I don't have enough visibility. Maybe I'll just add one very quick

thing. You know, we're mostly in the rental

properties and we do see rents coming down, especially in offices, but a

little bit in retail too, especially since Covid.

So retail rents are way down. You know, frankly, I think that's that's

good for Hong Kong. We need that space.

I think business owners, business founders need that space to experiment,

to offer better experiences to tourists who come to Hong Kong, to locals who

choose to stay in Hong Kong to consume, rather than go up to Shenzhen or

elsewhere or Japan. And I think that, you know, when they

have that extra cushion, we will start seeing some more interesting everything

from FNB to services to retail. And I think that's something that our

city desperately needs. The issue that Rodney, you bring up

about developers no longer buying land. Would that have an impact on the low tax

for the city or the low taxes enshrined in the basic law?

So it is not something that anybody can medal around with.

We just have to find other ways to put ends meet.

But as Idris said, it is inevitable that a lot of prices will have to adjust

after 50 years of a very man made artificial high real estate price.

Of course, China open up so Hong Kong economic benefit so we can sustain the

high price for the time being. Now, as you mention, mainland China is

also having economic challenges like the rest of the world.

Hong Kong also. And so the whole structure of the real

estate is changing so fast. Not to mention, as you

talk about it, that now going to something to buy dense rent to consume

on the weekends. I said, what's a big deal?

Such as? Grow up.

Such an economic reality. In the old days, they used to come to

Hong Kong to buy because, you know the quality is better.

So now with their quality has gone up and prices still differential is better.

So Hong Kong people go back to spend. I think it's a wonderful thing.

Now, it hurts me because the retail prices, retail rent has no no place to

go but to come down and the whole asset value has to adjust in Hong Kong.

That's just a fact. If you don't accept it, if you don't if

you don't recognize it, then I would say, you know, you will be a very sad

person, very unhappy person. But if you understand rationally,

understand it and accept it and say, okay, what do we do?

What do we do in order to get the best out of the present situation?

And so so with Shenzhen opening up, I see very good

things. For example, Hong Kong People's

Putonghua will be a lot better. And I have been singing this song for

the last 20 some years and that is politically one country, two system.

But economically, you got to integrate with where the money is.

50 years ago, 60 years ago, America was hot.

So we all gravitate to what America will learn to speak English and deal with

America. Then Europe rose and then Japan growth.

And we had to deal with every one of these.

And the last 30 years, who has been the well, China has been accounting for some

32% of the globe of the world's economic growth for a long time.

And so if that's where the money is, what's wrong with looking to the right

direction? The dumb people in the yellow ribbon

people, you know, they they hit people from something from mainland China

carrying a bag. Those guys are here to spend money and

they you chase them away. Right.

So the same guys who hit those, you have those yellow ribbons who hit the

mainland. Shoppers in Hong Kong today themselves,

damn it. Are going back to something to consume.

Right. Let's hope that nobody will hit them.

So such is the change in this part of the world.

That is just amazing. And I think we need a cool head.

Don't use the the old paradigm, the old economic paradigm to understand Hong

Kong. In a sense, it's an anomaly, as I said.

Four parties make Hong Kong register prices stay high for 50 years.

When that is fundamentally change, everything changes.

So let's get adjusted to a new environment, accept it and do the best

out of it. I still think there's tons of

opportunity money in Hong Kong. The parties are bankers.

All three speakers before us, they were all talking about money flowing down.

It's true. It's real, right?

So Hong Kong still has a lot, but a lot of opportunity.

So let's look forward instead of backward.

This adjustment period of where we see right now, the the new homes are

excellent, selling cheaper than existing homes and also the adjusting to the new

reality that you mentioned. How long do you think this period the

last. It will last as long as it will last,

but alcohol will tend to adjust pretty fast.

But this time, the difference is people don't feel you have to take care

of the consumer's psychology, right? They don't feel

too assured that the future. And when the when when the home go down

on prices by, I don't know, 20, 30%, you know, it's going to affect your

consumption pattern. So a lot of things are happening.

Frankly, a lot of banks are holding holding the bag for a lot of speculative

real estate over the last couple of years.

So the banks will have to just individually have to adjust.

I'm all for looking forward to see what the brave new world of Hong Kong is

going to be like. And we will still be here.

We have, you know, 40% of all of our rental income every year, roughly

what, $40 billion is still coming from Hong Kong.

So, you know, we will ride this one out.

And I like to ask about succession from Ronnie to April.

How has the transition been? Ask the shareholders.

The share price hasn't been doing particularly well.

So I think that their their vote is pretty clear.

No, I think as Amy. Yeah.

Ask Amy. She should have a better idea.

I think it's it's been pretty smooth, as far as I would say.

I've been involved in the business for 14 years and it's not like I'm not

unfamiliar with how things work. It's just

a change in psyche, both for management and also, I think, for our outside

stakeholders. And that'll take some time to adjust.

It's very normal. But more or less, our business is

business as usual. When you think about the future of your

company and the legacy, what is the vision that you have for where you're

taking? The world is a very different place from

where it was just 15 years ago when I joined the company.

So you have to be reactive and you have to be faster on your feet today.

I think, you know, these these grand strategies that we've implemented over

the past couple of decades have paid great dividends.

But I think that the way we look at the market going forward has to be different

because the market's different. Can you be more specific in terms of how

so? We used to do a lot of big greenfield

investments. Those took decades, literally decades to

repay. And I think that the size of the

projects may have to get a little bit smaller.

There's many ways that that could happen.

And then also the markets maybe are less so.

GREENFIELD Maybe it's going deeper vertical rather than horizontal.

So these are things that we've been talking about and looking at internally.

I think they're sensible direction options.

But at this point, they're just options. I'd just add one thing to what Andrew

said. When everybody's in, how?

There must be opportunities in that, you know.

Ten days ago, I hosted Jamie Dimon in Hong Kong with a couple hundred people

and and isn't what that's what John Pierpont Morgan said when there's blood

on the street. Hey, that's a time to buy.

And you go to the meaning of China today.

The government as a local government don't have money to people don't have

money. Nobody have money.

Hey, that's great. I got a few bucks, right?

And so there must be opportunities. But as Adrian mentioned, don't look at

our past and say that's where the immediate future, the opportunities are.

Not there. Well, it's there, but we may not want to

take it, you know, these big greenfield projects, but there are a lot of smaller

opportunities, vertical, as he calls it. You know, just the return is very, very

lucrative. And so, you know, we are finding such

opportunities, but the market is still giving us .7.8.

The price to book. You guys will wake up one day.

But let me buy first.

We we've been we have been buying. We have about 30 seconds left for both

of you. What is the best investment that you've

made? Sorry?

What is the best investment you've ever made?

Oh, raise. Nice one.

What can I say? That that'll beat that.

No, I think you have to invest in yourself.

I mean, each of us has to invest in yourself and make sure that you get

better every day and make sure that you become an asset, a more valuable asset

to the organizations and the stakeholders around you.

Ronnie Israel, thank you very much. Thanks.