IHSG CRASHED 9% !! THE IMPACT OF DONALD TRUMP'S TARIFFS? Or IS IT A MISUNDERSTANDING GOVERNMENT?

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses the economic impact of U.S.-China trade relations on Indonesia, emphasizing the country's reliance on Chinese demand for commodities like coal and palm oil. He warns that disruptions in this trade flow could lead to a significant downturn in Indonesia's economy. The speaker also presents economic predictions, including a potential market collapse and a weakening Rupiah. He proposes a tariff-free strategy for U.S. goods entering Indonesia but questions whether it would be viewed as unpatriotic. The video invites viewers to share their opinions on these complex economic issues.

Takeaways

• 😀 Indonesia's economy heavily relies on trade with China, especially in commodities like coal, palm oil, and nickel.
• 😀 The United States' trade policies towards China directly impact Indonesia, as China is a major buyer of Indonesian goods.
• 😀 If China loses its ability to sell to the U.S., it would reduce its demand for Indonesian exports.
• 😀 Many people fail to understand the interconnected nature of trade between Indonesia, China, and the U.S.
• 😀 Predictions were made about Indonesia's economy, including a fall in the Jakarta Stock Exchange index to 5,000 and the rupiah hitting 20,000 per USD.
• 😀 Commodity prices like coal and palm oil are expected to decrease drastically, impacting Indonesia’s major industries.
• 😀 The speaker warns that Indonesia’s economy could suffer if these economic predictions come true.
• 😀 A proposed solution is to negotiate trade terms with the U.S., possibly reducing or removing tariffs on U.S. goods to benefit Indonesian consumers.
• 😀 The speaker challenges accusations of being unpatriotic for supporting lower tariffs on U.S. goods, suggesting a lack of better solutions to pay large trade deficits.
• 😀 Deregulation is necessary for Indonesia to streamline its trade and reduce non-tariff barriers that complicate global commerce.

Q & A

Why does the speaker say that Indonesia is heavily reliant on China for exports?

The speaker explains that China is Indonesia's largest trading partner and is a major buyer of Indonesian commodities like coal, palm oil, and nickel. China processes these commodities and exports them to other countries, including the United States, which makes Indonesia dependent on China's ability to sell to global markets.

What impact could a trade conflict between the United States and China have on Indonesia's economy?

If the United States imposes restrictions on Chinese goods or stops purchasing from China, the speaker argues that China will likely reduce its orders from Indonesia, leading to a collapse in the prices of key Indonesian commodities like coal and palm oil, which would harm Indonesia's economy.

How does the speaker react to the idea that Indonesia wouldn't be affected by the U.S.-China trade conflict?

The speaker criticizes this view, calling it naive. They point out that China is a significant intermediary in trade between Indonesia and the U.S. — if the U.S. stops buying from China, China will likely stop buying from Indonesia, which will have a direct negative impact on Indonesia's economy.

What are some of the predictions the speaker made in their previous video about Indonesia's economy?

The speaker predicted that the Indonesian stock market (ISG) would fall to around 5,000, the rupiah would weaken to 20,000 per U.S. dollar, and commodity prices like coal and palm oil would collapse due to the trade disruptions.

What is the significance of the speaker's statement about buying U.S. dollars?

The speaker mentions that purchasing U.S. dollars could be a good financial move due to the predicted depreciation of the rupiah. However, they also suggest that this move might be seen as unpatriotic, as it could be viewed as unhelpful to Indonesia’s national economy.

Why does the speaker mention a '0%' tariff on U.S. goods?

The speaker discusses the possibility of negotiating a trade agreement with the U.S. that would allow Indonesian consumers to purchase American goods without tariffs. This could lower prices on imported goods like Harley-Davidson motorcycles, but the speaker also points out that such a policy could have significant financial consequences for Indonesia.

What is the speaker's opinion on the solution to Indonesia's trade deficit with the U.S.?

The speaker criticizes the idea of simply paying the U.S. $18 billion each year to settle the trade deficit. They argue that this would lead to higher taxes for Indonesians and is not a sustainable solution, suggesting that more creative solutions need to be found.

How does the speaker address concerns about nationalism regarding economic decisions?

The speaker is frustrated with those who accuse others of being unpatriotic for making pragmatic financial decisions. They argue that in difficult economic situations, Indonesia needs to focus on finding solutions, even if they might not always align with nationalist ideals.

What role does China play in Indonesia's commodity exports?

China plays a crucial role as a major buyer of Indonesian commodities like coal, palm oil, and nickel. These commodities are processed in China and then exported to global markets, including the U.S. Thus, any disruption to China's trade with the U.S. directly impacts Indonesia's commodity exports.

What is the 'nontariff barrier' that the speaker refers to, and why is it important?

A 'nontariff barrier' refers to restrictions other than tariffs that hinder trade, such as regulations, quotas, or bureaucratic obstacles. The speaker argues that Indonesia needs to deregulate these barriers to make trade easier and more efficient, which would help improve Indonesia's position in the global economy.