Nitish ने ली CM पद की शपथ, तेजस्वी कैसे कर सकते हैं 'Check Mate', सुनिए Sukesh का राजनीतिक विश्लेषण

News 24

28 Jan 202407:33

Summary

TLDRThe transcript discusses the recent political developments in Bihar, India regarding government formation. It analyzes the strategies of RJD and JD(U) and their legislative strength. The speaker highlights that Nitish Kumar has returned as CM with BJP's support, but RJD under Tejashwi Yadav is alleging betrayal. The speaker explains RJD's floor test strategy in the Assembly to try to topple the Nitish government. However, RJD lacks the numbers currently, so the speaker says their only option is to get JD(U) MLAs to abstain or defect during a potential floor test.

Takeaways

😀 Nitish Kumar has taken oath as Bihar CM again with BJP's support
😮 RJD claims Nitish betrayed them despite their support
🤔 RJD wants to portray itself as the victim
😯 RJD wants to try floor test to prove majority
😃 Speaker can be asked to disregard party whip
🧐 MLAs can inform Speaker they don't support govt
😕 RJD will target Nitish Kumar publicly
🤨 RJD will try to break JD(U) legislators
😟 In 2015, JD(U) won 71 seats out of 101 seats contested
😢 Nitish Kumar inducted Sumit Singh as minister to keep him in fold

Q & A

What is the current political situation in Bihar?
-Nitish Kumar has again become the Chief Minister with support from BJP. The cabinet formation is almost done but portfolios have not yet been allocated.
What strategy does Tejashwi Yadav allege Nitish Kumar has played?
-Tejashwi alleges that Nitish Kumar changed his strategy and went with BJP for his own benefit, while RJD supported him till the end to provide a stable government.
What are the seat numbers of the two alliances in the Bihar Assembly?
-The NDA and RJD+ alliance have very close seat numbers with only a minor difference, making the numbers evenly poised.
What public posturing is Tejashwi Yadav trying to do?
-Tejashwi is trying to publicly portray that while Nitish was tired after 17 years rule, RJD supported him for 17 months to implement their agenda in the last government.
What is the floor test strategy of RJD?
-RJD's floor test strategy is to first get some MLAs to withdraw support to the government. Then bring a no confidence motion to remove the Speaker and test the numbers.
What was Nitish Kumar's original majority in 2005?
-In 2005, when Nitish Kumar first formed government, his party JD(U) had a majority of 88 seats, about 30 more than BJP's 55 seats.
How did JD(U)'s seats change over successive elections?
-JD(U) seats increased to 113 in 2010, reduced to 71 out of 101 seats contested in Grand Alliance in 2015, and further reduced to 43 in 2020.
Why was Sumit Singh made a minister?
-Sumit Singh was made a minister to keep him on NDA's side as he had won independently. Each MLA was important for Nitish to increase numbers.
What are the options for RJD during a floor test?
-RJD can get JD(U) MLAs to abstain or resign to reduce JD(U) numbers below majority. Else, they have to wait for defections from JD(U).
What message does Tejashwi want to give by saying 'the game is still on'?
-This is a signal to unsettle MLAs that RJD has not given up and there may be attempts to destabilize the government.

Outlines

00:00

😊 Nitish Kumar takes oath as Bihar CM for 8th time, allocates portfolios

This paragraph discusses Nitish Kumar taking oath as Bihar Chief Minister for the 8th time. His cabinet is almost finalized but portfolios are not yet allocated. BJP gets 2 deputy CMs. Nadda to address press conference regarding this. Tejashwi alleges Nitish betrayed him for own interests. Could have explored other options but wanted to appear victimized.

05:01

😕 Background on Sumit Kumar Singh made minister

This paragraph provides background on Sumit Kumar Singh who was made a minister. He is son of senior JDU leader Narendra Singh. Nitish made him minister in 2005 when JDU won 88 seats. JDU MLAs have gone down from 88 in 2005 to 43 now. Keeping independents like Sumit important to boost numbers.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Floor Test

A floor test, or motion of confidence, is used to determine if the ruling government enjoys the confidence of the legislature. An opposition party can call for a floor test if they doubt the majority. In this video, the speaker discusses how RJD may call for a floor test to try to topple the new Nitish Kumar government.

💡MLA Defection

The speaker suggests that RJD's strategy may involve getting some JD(U) MLAs to defect and withdraw support for the government. This would reduce Nitish Kumar's majority prior to a potential floor test.

💡Number Game

The relative legislative assembly seat numbers of the JD(U), BJP, RJD and Congress alliances are discussed. The speaker analyzes how the changing numbers constrain or empower Nitish Kumar.

💡Victim Narrative

The speaker suggests RJD will try to craft a victim narrative for the public, claiming Nitish Kumar betrayed them despite cooperation from Tejashwi Yadav.

💡Clever Strategy

The speaker contends RJD has cleverly chosen not to approach the Governor or try to topple the government just yet. This is to build public sympathy.

💡Backfoot

The speaker says RJD claiming 'the game is still on' also signals to its MLAs that the party is not just sitting back and is still making efforts.

💡Importance of Speaker

The speaker is from RJD, so can help enable a floor test. RJD may also first move to dismiss the speaker to understand the numbers.

💡Maturity

The speaker says as seasoned politicians, RJD knows the first and final test is a floor test. Their strategies are leading up to an eventual test of strength.

💡Cooperation

RJD can claim they cooperated by changing portfolios of JD(U) ministers when asked, before Nitish Kumar withdrew support.

💡Meetings

The speaker mentions reports of some Congress MLAs being in touch with BJP, underscoring numbers game.

Highlights

First significant research finding

Introduction of new theoretical framework

Notable contribution to field