Tarif 32% Trump & Bayang-Bayang Perlambatan Ekonomi RI

Summary

The video discusses the economic impacts of President Trump's proposed 32% import tariff hike, which signals a shift toward global protectionism. Senior economist Khatib Basri analyzes how Indonesia's exports, including textiles, footwear, and shrimp, may be directly affected. While Indonesia's smaller export-to-GDP ratio provides some insulation, the potential for economic slowdown and job losses exists. The conversation highlights strategies such as economic deregulation, currency depreciation, and diversifying export markets to mitigate these effects. The video also explores the opportunity for Indonesia to attract foreign investment as production shifts from China due to rising tariffs.

Takeaways

• 😀 Trump's plan to increase import tariffs by 32% signals a rise in global protectionism, which could negatively impact key sectors in Indonesia, including textiles, footwear, and seafood.
• 😀 Sectors directly affected by the tariff increase are primarily export-based industries, particularly those that rely on the U.S. market. This could lead to economic slowdown and potential job layoffs in Indonesia.
• 😀 Indonesia's exposure to global economic downturns is relatively smaller due to its lower export-to-GDP ratio compared to countries like Singapore or Vietnam, reducing the impact of the trade war.
• 😀 The analogy comparing global economic integration to avoiding marriage highlights that countries less integrated into the global economy may face less severe impacts from global crises.
• 😀 The main cause of U.S. trade imbalances is the gap between national savings and investments. Trump's tariff policies could worsen this imbalance by pushing up prices and potentially leading to inflation.
• 😀 The depreciation of the rupiah and a stronger U.S. dollar could make Indonesian exports more competitive but also raise production costs due to higher import prices.
• 😀 To remain competitive, Indonesian exporters may need to lower their prices, risking lower profit margins or business closures. Cost reductions should focus on reducing bureaucratic barriers and regulations.
• 😀 Diversification of export markets and products is essential for Indonesia to reduce its dependence on the U.S. market, though it may take time to implement these changes effectively.
• 😀 Short-term government measures to address the economic impact could include tariff negotiations, speeding up economic deregulation, and potentially offering fiscal support to key sectors like tourism and social aid programs.
• 😀 Relocation of investments from China due to the trade war presents an opportunity for Indonesia to attract foreign direct investment by offering lower tariffs and reducing bureaucratic hurdles, though competition from other ASEAN countries remains intense.

Q & A

What is the main impact of Trump's proposed 32% tariff increase on Indonesia?

The proposed 32% tariff increase would primarily affect Indonesia's key export sectors, such as textiles, footwear, and shrimp. These sectors would experience higher costs due to the tariffs, potentially leading to slower economic growth and increased risk of layoffs.

How does Indonesia's export-to-GDP ratio compare with countries like Singapore and Vietnam?

Indonesia's export-to-GDP ratio is around 25%, which is smaller than countries like Singapore (180%) and Vietnam. This smaller ratio means Indonesia may be less affected by global economic downturns compared to these highly integrated economies.

What is the analogy used by the economist to explain how Indonesia could minimize global economic impacts?

The economist compares the strategy to avoiding a divorce by not marrying. In economic terms, it means that by being less integrated with the global economy, Indonesia can reduce its exposure to global economic risks, although this approach is extreme and not fully practical.

What could be the consequence of a global economic recession triggered by Trump's tariff policies?

If a global recession occurs due to Trump's tariffs, it could lead to slower economic growth in Indonesia, resulting in job losses (PHK) and decreased demand for exports. However, Indonesia's relatively small exposure to global trade may limit the severity of the impact.

How could depreciation of the rupiah help Indonesian exports amid rising tariffs?

A depreciated rupiah could make Indonesian exports more competitive in the global market by effectively compensating for the increased cost of goods due to higher tariffs. This could help maintain export demand despite the tariff hike.

What measures could the Indonesian government take to support its export sector in this scenario?

The Indonesian government could accelerate economic deregulation to reduce high business costs and improve the investment climate. By cutting bureaucracy and regulatory barriers, businesses could lower production costs, allowing them to maintain competitive prices despite the tariffs.

Why is diversifying export markets important for Indonesia in light of Trump's trade policies?

Diversifying export markets is crucial because it reduces Indonesia's reliance on the US market, which is directly impacted by Trump's tariffs. By exploring new markets, particularly within ASEAN and East Asia, Indonesia can spread its economic risk and sustain export growth.

What role does fiscal policy play in mitigating the impact of a global economic slowdown on Indonesia?

Fiscal policy, especially counter-cyclical policies, can play a vital role by stimulating domestic demand. However, due to limited fiscal space, the government should focus on sectors with the highest economic multiplier effects, such as tourism and social assistance programs like PKH (Family Hope Program) and BLT (Direct Cash Assistance).

How might the US dollar's strength affect Indonesia's economy during a global economic slowdown?

As the US dollar strengthens in times of global economic uncertainty, it could lead to the depreciation of other currencies, including the rupiah. This could make imports more expensive for Indonesia but could also make Indonesian exports more attractive to foreign markets.

What is the potential impact of China's 34% retaliatory tariff on US goods?

China's 34% retaliatory tariff could harm global trade by escalating the trade war, potentially leading to a collapse in global trade. However, Indonesia may benefit as producers in China, facing higher tariffs in the US, might seek alternative production bases, including Indonesia, to access the US market more competitively.