Just in: GPT-5 will be a system with TTCS!

Summary

In this video, the speaker discusses OpenAI’s roadmap for GPT-4.5 and GPT-5, highlighting key innovations such as the transition from non-Chain of Thought (CoT) models in GPT-4.5 to CoT-based reasoning in GPT-5. GPT-5 will be a system, not a single model, integrating different models and possibly using a 'model router' to optimize task processing. The speaker also explains test time scaling, where models are allowed more thinking time for better accuracy. While GPT-5 promises more advanced capabilities, concerns are raised about potential loss of transparency and open-source access as OpenAI moves towards system-level AI integration.

Takeaways

• 😀 GPT-5 will be a system, not just a single model, and will combine existing models with a router to optimize performance and cost.
• 😀 The model picker, which allows users to select different models, will be replaced by a model router that will intelligently route tasks to the appropriate model based on their complexity.
• 😀 GPT-4.5 (Orion) will be the last non-chain of thought model, marking a shift towards chain-of-thought reasoning for all future models.
• 😀 Chain-of-thought models allow AI to think step-by-step, improving its problem-solving abilities and decision-making process.
• 😀 Test time scaling will allow models to think longer and improve accuracy, particularly for more complex tasks that require deeper reasoning.
• 😀 GPT-5 will feature different intelligence levels for various user tiers, with Pro users gaining access to higher levels of reasoning capabilities.
• 😀 Scaling loss refers to the concept that increasing model resources (data, compute, etc.) leads to better accuracy, and this will be leveraged in GPT-5.
• 😀 The combination of chain-of-thought models and test time scaling means that GPT-5 will be capable of more complex reasoning and problem-solving than its predecessors.
• 😀 OpenAI is likely moving away from open-source models due to the increasing complexity of the system, which may reduce transparency and reproducibility.
• 😀 The integration of GPT-3 into GPT-5 will help streamline AI tasks and improve overall system performance, but could lead to more confusion due to the system-based approach.

Q & A

What is the primary purpose of OpenAI's 'model picker' and why do they want to get rid of it?

The model picker allows users to manually choose between different GPT models. OpenAI wants to eliminate this because it creates friction for users and complicates the process. They plan to implement a 'model router' to automatically select the most suitable model for each task based on its complexity.

What is a 'model router' and how would it improve the system?

A model router is a system that automatically decides which model to use based on the user's request. It routes simpler queries to smaller, less expensive models and more complex tasks to larger, more powerful models. This improves efficiency and reduces the need for users to manually select the model.

What does 'GPT-4.5' or 'Orion' represent in OpenAI's roadmap?

GPT-4.5, internally called Orion, will be the last non-chain of thought model. It is an improvement over previous models as it will begin incorporating chain of thought processes, allowing the model to think step-by-step to arrive at answers.

How is GPT-4.5 different from GPT-4?

GPT-4.5 will be the first model in the GPT series to include chain of thought processes, unlike GPT-4 which operates without this feature. This allows GPT-4.5 to reason through problems more effectively, improving accuracy and results.

What is 'chain of thought' and how does it impact the model's performance?

Chain of thought refers to the internal process where the model generates reasoning steps before arriving at an answer. It significantly enhances problem-solving capabilities, especially for complex tasks, by allowing the model to break down the solution step by step.

What is the significance of GPT-5 being described as a 'system' rather than a single model?

GPT-5 will be a system composed of multiple models integrated together. Unlike previous versions, it will combine different models, such as GPT-4 and GPT-3, using a model router to select the appropriate model for each task. This system will be more flexible and intelligent in handling a variety of requests.

What does 'test time scaling' refer to, and how does it relate to GPT-5?

Test time scaling refers to the concept of giving the model more time to think during the problem-solving process. By allowing the model to think longer, it can produce more accurate and complex answers, which is a key feature expected in GPT-5.

How will subscription tiers impact the level of intelligence in GPT-5?

GPT-5 will offer different levels of intelligence based on subscription tiers. Pro users will have access to more advanced thinking and reasoning capabilities compared to standard users, thanks to features like test time scaling and enhanced model integration.

What role does 'scaling loss' play in machine learning, and how does it apply to GPT-5?

Scaling loss refers to the phenomenon where increasing the scale of a model (e.g., more data, compute power, or model size) leads to improved accuracy. In GPT-5, this concept is extended to 'test time scaling,' where giving the model more time to think results in better performance and accuracy.

What are the potential downsides of OpenAI's shift toward a proprietary system for GPT-5?

The shift to a proprietary system may reduce transparency and make it more difficult for researchers and developers to understand how the model works. This could pose challenges for reproducibility, open-source advocates, and those seeking to better understand or modify the system.