The Biggest Danger Facing The Stock Market Right Now | Joseph Carlson Ep. 138

Summary

本视频讨论了两位著名投资者的观点：被誉为“投资女王”的凯西·伍德（Kathy Wood）和电影《大空头》中由克里斯蒂安·贝尔（Christian Bale）扮演的迈克尔·J·伯里（Dr. Michael J. Burry）。伯里因预见2007年金融危机而闻名，他最近在推特上发出关于通货膨胀的警告，指出美国政府的现代货币理论政策和M2货币供应量的大幅增加可能导致通货膨胀。凯西·伍德则提到市场可能会出现估值重置和恐慌。视频还探讨了如何保护投资组合免受通货膨胀的影响，包括税损收割策略和投资于生产性资产。沃伦·巴菲特（Warren Buffett）也分享了他对债券和货币市场账户在高通胀时期的看法，并预测股市在未来十年将会大幅上涨。

Takeaways

• 👑 投资女王Kathy Wood和电影《大空头》中由Christian Bale饰演的投资者Michael J. Burry是视频中讨论的两位重要人物。
• 📉 Burry因在2007年预见到银行危机并做空而知名，当时他因逆势操作而被嘲笑，但最终被证明是正确的。
• 💬 Burry在Twitter上发出了关于通货膨胀的警告，认为美国政府通过现代货币理论政策、高债务与GDP比率以及M2货币供应量的增加正在引发通货膨胀。
• 📈 他分享了M2货币供应量的图表，显示了美国家庭的流动性在2020年的急剧增加，暗示这可能导致通货膨胀。
• 🎲 Burry还警告说，投机性股票泡沫和过度借贷可能导致市场不稳定，他通过图表展示了股票市场和保证金债务达到历史高点时市场回调的历史模式。
• 🤔 他指出消费者并不预期通货膨胀，历史上对通货膨胀的预测一直是华尔街的“寡妇制造者”交易，意味着这样的预测通常不会带来投资收益。
• 👵 Kathy Wood提到将会有估值重置和恐慌，这引起了市场的关注，因为她被视为市场中最具有前瞻性和乐观的投资者之一。
• 📊 她讨论了联邦基金利率上升对股票的影响，暗示如果利率上升，她投资的公司可能会经历估值重置。
• 🔄 Wood提出了她的投资策略，即在严重的市场调整期间，她会卖出亏损的股票并将资金投入到她最有信心的公司中，这是一种减税策略。
• 🏦 Burry和Warren Buffett都认为，在高通货膨胀期间，长期政府债券不是一个好的投资选择，而实物资产和股票通常能带来更好的回报。
• 💼 Buffett强调，投资于生产性企业是长期内获得回报的可靠方式，而将资金存放在储蓄账户或货币市场账户中注定会失败。
• 📊 根据Buffett在2011年的预测，过去十年股市大幅上涨，而短期国债的回报微不足道，这证明了他的预测是正确的。
• 🚀 视频作者表达了对股市未来十年继续上涨的信心，并计划继续投资于他们认为将会增长并为投资者带来良好回报的公司。

Q & A

谁是Kathy Wood，她为何被称为投资女王？

Kathy Wood是著名的投资者，被称为投资女王，因为她在投资领域的卓越表现和前瞻性思维。

电影《大空头》中由Christian Bale扮演的角色原型是谁？

电影《大空头》中Christian Bale扮演的角色原型是Dr. Michael J. Burry，他因在2007年预见并做空大型银行而知名。

Dr. Michael J. Burry最近在Twitter上发出了什么警告？

Dr. Michael J. Burry最近在Twitter上发出了关于通货膨胀的警告，他指出美国政府正在通过现代货币理论政策、债务与GDP比率以及M2货币供应量的增加来引发通货膨胀。

根据Dr. Burry的推文，为什么他认为当前的通货膨胀是一个问题？

Dr. Burry认为当前的通货膨胀是一个问题，因为美国政府正在实施的政策导致了大量刺激措施和需求的增加，同时供应链成本飙升，这可能会导致通货膨胀的加剧。

在Dr. Burry分享的图表中，M2货币供应量在过去一年中有何显著变化？

在过去一年中，M2货币供应量出现了异常的增长，这种增长相当于正常六年的增长量，这表明家庭的流动性在一年内大幅增加，这可能会导致货币价值下降，从而引发通货膨胀。

Dr. Burry提到的投机性股票泡沫和过度借贷有何联系？

Dr. Burry认为，投机性股票泡沫会导致投资者承担过多的债务，这种行为在市场达到顶峰时尤为明显，这可能会导致市场不稳定，甚至出现重大回调。

Kathy Wood在采访中提到了哪些可能影响市场的因素？

Kathy Wood在采访中提到了估值重置和市场恐慌，她认为如果利率上升，那么之前表现出色的股票可能会受到影响，估值可能会下降。

Kathy Wood的投资策略是什么，特别是在面对高通胀或估值重置时？

Kathy Wood的投资策略是在市场出现严重调整时，出售那些不是她最有信心的公司的股票，并将所得资金投入到她最看好的公司中，这是一种税收损失收获策略。

根据Dr. Burry和Warren Buffett的观点，高通胀时期应该避免哪些投资？

根据Dr. Burry和Warren Buffett的观点，在高通胀时期，应该避免投资于长期政府债券，因为它们通常在高通胀时期表现最差。

Warren Buffett在2011年对投资的建议是什么，他的预测在过去十年中是否准确？

Warren Buffett在2011年建议投资者投资于好的企业，而不是债券或储蓄账户。他认为，长期来看，投资于生产性资产的人会获得胜利。过去十年的股市表现证明了他的预测是准确的，股市大幅上涨，而短期国债的回报几乎为零。

Outlines

00:00

😲 投资者对通胀的警告

本段讨论了两位著名投资者：Kathy Wood，被誉为投资女王，和Dr. Michael J. Burry，电影《大空头》中由Christian Bale扮演的角色。Burry因在2007年预见并做空银行而知名，他最近在Twitter上发出了关于通胀的警告。视频作者提到自己在股市的投资，并强调了Burry关于通胀的警告值得关注。Burry在推特上提到，美国政府通过现代货币理论政策、高债务与GDP比率以及M2货币供应量的增加，正在引发通胀。他还分享了M2货币供应量的图表，显示自1980年代以来，家庭流动性的增长，尤其是在2020年的异常增长，暗示了通胀的可能性。

05:01

📉 股市与通胀的关联

第二段中，视频作者继续探讨了Burry关于通胀的警告，包括投机性股票泡沫和过度借贷的问题。Burry警告说，市场正处于刀刃上，被动投资的智商流失和股票只涨不跌的炒作增加了市场的风险。此外，作者提到了Kathy Wood的观点，她预测将会有估值重置和市场恐慌。Wood认为，如果联邦基金利率上升，那么她投资的公司将面临估值重置，市盈率将会下降。作者强调了估值重置对投资者投资组合的影响，并提出了对市场未来走向的担忧。

10:01

🏦 投资策略与通胀保护

在这一段中，视频作者探讨了在面临高通胀或估值重置时的保护资产策略。Kathy Wood提出了她的投资策略，即在严重的市场调整期间，她会卖出那些不是她最有信心的公司的股票，并将资金投入到她最有信心的公司中，这是一种税收损失收获策略。Burry和Warren Buffett都建议，在高通胀时期，投资者应该避免将资金投入到长期政府债券中，而应该选择实物资产或股票。Buffett特别强调，将资金投入到生产性企业中是长期获得回报的最佳方式，而将资金存入储蓄账户或货币市场账户则注定会失败。

15:02

📈 股市长期展望与投资策略

最后一段总结了作者对于通胀影响的思考和个人投资策略。作者认为，将大量资金存储在储蓄账户或货币市场账户中，长期来看将会付出高昂的代价，因为这些资金的价值会随着时间的推移而逐渐减少。相反，投资于生产性资产将随着时间的推移而获得胜利。作者引用了Warren Buffett在2011年的预测，即股市在未来10年内将会大幅上涨，这一预测在过去的10年中得到了证实。基于这些分析，作者计划继续投资于他看好的公司，如迪士尼、Costco、耐克和苹果等，并在市场出现重大回调时，采用类似于Kathy Wood的策略，卖出非核心持股，并将所得资金投入到核心持股中，以此降低税负并增强投资组合的核心持股。

Keywords

💡投资

投资是指将资金投入到股票、债券、房地产等资产中以期望在未来获得收益的行为。在视频中，投资是核心主题，讨论了如何在通货膨胀的情况下进行投资以保护资产。例如，提到了Kathy Wood和Dr. Michael J. Bury这两位投资者，他们通过投资策略在市场变动中获利。

💡通货膨胀

通货膨胀是指货币购买力下降，商品和服务价格普遍上升的经济现象。视频中讨论了通货膨胀对投资的影响，Dr. Michael J. Bury警告说，美国政府的现代货币理论政策和债务与GDP比率的增加可能会导致通货膨胀，这与视频的主题紧密相关。

💡股市

股市是股票交易的市场，投资者可以买卖公司的股票。视频中提到了股市投资，特别是提到了作者在股市中的被动收入账户，以及如何通过投资股市来应对通货膨胀。

💡债务与GDP比率

债务与GDP比率是一个国家或地区的总债务与其国内生产总值（GDP）的比值，用来衡量经济体的债务水平。视频中Dr. Bury提到，美国政府的债务与GDP比率很高，这可能会引发通货膨胀。

💡流动性

流动性指的是资产能够迅速且不影响其价格地转换为现金的能力。视频中提到了M2货币供应量，这是衡量经济中流动性的一个指标，Dr. Bury指出，家庭的流动性在过去一年中急剧增加，这可能会导致通货膨胀。

💡投机性股票泡沫

投机性股票泡沫是指由于投资者过度投机导致某些股票价格远远高于其内在价值的现象。视频中提到，Dr. Bury警告说，市场上的投机行为可能会导致股票泡沫，这是通货膨胀可能带来的风险之一。

💡联邦基金利率

联邦基金利率是美国联邦储备系统（美联储）设定的利率，影响银行间的借贷成本。视频中提到，如果通货膨胀加剧，美联储可能会提高联邦基金利率，这将对股市和投资者的投资组合产生影响。

💡估值重置

估值重置是指市场对公司价值的重新评估，通常发生在市场条件变化时。Kathy Wood在视频中提到，如果利率上升，可能会导致估值重置，这意味着投资者可能需要重新评估他们投资组合中公司的价值。

💡税损收割

税损收割是一种税务策略，通过卖出亏损的投资来抵消资本收益，从而降低税务负担。视频中Kathy Wood提到了她的策略，即在市场调整期间卖出亏损的股票，并将资金重新投资到她最有信心的公司中，这是一种税损收割策略。

💡实际资产

实际资产是指具有实际使用价值的资产，如房地产、土地、自然资源等。视频中Dr. Bury和Warren Buffett都提到，在通货膨胀期间，投资实际资产通常比投资债券要好，因为它们可以作为对冲通货膨胀的手段。

Highlights

本集节目讨论了两位投资者：被誉为投资女王的Kathy Wood和电影《大空头》中由演员Christian Bale扮演的投资者Michael J. Burry。

Michael J. Burry因在2007年预见到银行的失败而闻名，当时他因做空银行而受到嘲笑和质疑。

Burry在Twitter上发出关于通货膨胀的警告，他提到人们没有听从他过去的警告。

Burry警告的核心是通货膨胀问题，他通过一系列推文阐述了通货膨胀的原因和影响。

美国政府通过现代货币理论政策、高债务与GDP比率以及M2货币供应量的增加来邀请通货膨胀。

M2货币供应量图表显示了美国家庭的流动性，2020年的增长速度异常，是过去六年正常增长的六倍。

Burry指出，当市场上的钱变多时，美元的价值通常会下降，这是通货膨胀的本质。

Burry还警告了投机性股票泡沫和过度借贷的问题，这可能导致市场不稳定。

他分享的图表显示，标普500指数和保证金债务都达到了历史新高，这可能预示着市场的回调。

消费者并不预期通货膨胀，这与1970年代的情况不同，当时许多人都在赌通货膨胀。

Kathy Wood在采访中提到，将会有一个估值重置，并且会有恐惧，这引起了市场的担忧。

Kathy Wood认为，如果利率急剧上升，我们将看到估值重置，她的投资组合将是重置的主要候选。

估值重置意味着她所投资的公司将面临市盈率和未来收益的下降。

Kathy Wood的策略是在严重市场调整期间，卖出亏损的股票，并将资金投入到她最有信心的公司。

Burry建议，在高通胀期间，长期政府债券不是一个好的投资选择，而实物资产和股票通常表现更好。

沃伦·巴菲特在2011年表示，在高通胀预期下，购买债券是愚蠢的，而投资于生产性企业是更好的选择。

巴菲特预测，10年后股市将会更高，而短期国债的回报几乎为零，这与过去10年的实际表现相符。

总结来看，将大量资金存放在储蓄账户或短期投资中，长期来看会付出高昂的代价。

投资于生产性资产，长期来看会获得胜利，巴菲特在2011年就明确表示，投资于公司的人将在未来10年内获得回报。

作者计划继续投资，不担心短期交易，如果市场出现重大回调，将采用类似于Kathy Wood的策略。

作者将继续投资于他认为将在未来10年内为投资者提供良好回报的公司，如迪士尼、好市多、耐克和苹果等。

Transcripts

there's two people i want to talk about

in today's episode one is kathy wood the

queen of investing

and the other one is dr michael j bury

the investor that was played by the

actor christian bale

in the movie the big short now michael j

bury is known for going short the big

banks in 2007. he saw the impending doom

that nobody else seemed to see

and he was initially laughed at and

mocked because of his bet against the

banks

nobody could believe that the banks

would fail and as a result they thought

he was crazy well we know that the banks

did eventually fail

and dr bury was proven correct now years

later he's taken to twitter to give us

another warning

this one is pretty cryptic he says

things on twitter like this

just recently people say i didn't warn

last time

i did but no one listened so i warned

this time and still no one listens but i

will have proof

i warned what is he warning about he's

warning about

inflation that's what today's episode is

going to be about is inflation

now i have over 200 000 invested in the

stock market

in just my passive income account on my

secondary youtube channel i have another

account for that

that has sixty thousand dollars invested

all things total

i have around two hundred and seventy

thousand dollars in the stock market

so when michael bury is now giving us

these cryptic warnings

he's warning about inflation and he's

trying to outline a case

of why investors should pay attention to

it i think it's worth paying attention

to

i think it's worth diving in to see what

we can do to protect our portfolio and

our holdings from inflation

so let's first go ahead and look at some

of the things that he's been saying in

his first tweet he outlines the case for

inflation he says

the u.s government is inviting inflation

they're doing it with modern monetary

theory tinged policies

brisk debt to gdp ratio which is true we

have a lot of debt compared to the

amount of

gross domestic product that we have and

then m2 increases

he says trillions more stimulus and

reopening

to boost demand as employee and supply

chain costs skyrocket

and then he links some graphs to

illustrate this one of those charts that

bury shares

is called the m2 money supply and we're

looking at it right here

this shows basically how much liquidity

is in people's households

so the average u.s household how much

money do they have in their checking

account their saving account

and some type of money market fund or

anything like that it's just how much

liquidity they have

and you can see this since the 1980s the

amount of money that people have

generally goes up over time as inflation

goes up over

time and this is a gradual increase over

time

as we all know that we've had inflation

over the past 35 years

but we can see what michael bury's

highlighting in just the past year

if i zoom into the past 10 years it

illustrates this point more clearly

we see the normal levels of inflation

the amount of money going up over time

and then we get to 2020. look how steep

this increases

it doesn't follow the normal trend this

is about six years worth of normal

growth in the amount of liquidity that

households have

in just one year we skipped forward six

years

and i think that this is what dr berry

is referring to now i don't think you

need to be some type of legendary

investor like dr bury

to realize that when there's this much

more of something typically the value of

it has to go

down a little that's what inflation is

there's more money in people's

households there's more money going

around

and typically that puts downward

pressure on the value of a dollar

dr bury continues on with his warning

saying speculative stock bubbles

ultimately see the gamblers take on too

much

debt that's the big cue of whether or

not we see speculation in the market

people are wanting to return so bad

they're willing to take on more and more

debt

we've seen this not only on tick tock

with unwise investment choices

of people taking on massive amounts of

debt and race for easy money

but we also see it with major

corporations margin debt popularity

accelerates at peaks

and at this point the market is dancing

on a knife's edge he calls this a nice

edge

passive investing's iq drain and stocks

only go up hype

add to the danger so he's talking about

this overall trend of

stocks only going up and the fun that

people are having in the market

is contributing to this more careless

and risky behavior

if people actually start to believe that

stocks only go up

that is dangerous for the market and

then he also shares a graph that

illustrates this even more clearly

it shows the value of the s p 500 going

up to extreme highs

and then on the inverse it's difficult

to read because the red line is inversed

the amount of margin debt is also

increasing to record highs

and we can see how this is played out

throughout history both times in recent

history when the s p 500 has soared to

record highs

and the amount of margin debt that

investors are taking on has also soared

to record highs

the market eventually had a significant

pullback it had a significant downturn

we don't know for sure if that's going

to happen this time but it is something

to be aware of

that has been a pattern dr bury says

consumers do not

expect inflation this is a chart of the

five-year inflation

expectations by consumers so this chart

shows

uh what percentage of inflation people

expect and he says going back to the

last big one

that was in the 1970s the 1980s half of

us were not

alive during this last one two betting

on inflation has been a widowmaker trade

on wall street

so he's saying that not only do nobody

really expect significant amounts of

inflation

but even if you do expect inflation and

you're brave enough to say it

it usually means that you're not going

to get a lot of money you're not going

to get a lot of investments

it's a widowmaker trade on wall street

you become a little bit of a pariah

at that point so wall street really

doesn't have much of an incentive

to make a big prediction on inflation

now of course we don't know if michael

berry is right he could be giving a

warning that doesn't really pan out

but he's been pretty confident with

these type of predictions in the past

not only did he win on a huge bet

against the big smart banks like goldman

sachs but more recently he went against

a lot of other hedge funds

betting on a long position of gamestop

before reddit was involved

and gaining a 1 500 return in the

process

so he's somebody that i consider an

incredibly good investor

out of all the people you can follow on

twitter or actually pay attention to

this is one individual that i actually

do pay attention to what he's saying

i think that many of his decisions and

logic are very firmly grounded

now another investor that's no stranger

to headlines is kathy wood the queen of

investing

she recently said in an interview there

will be a valuation reset

there will be fear this has caused a lot

of people to be concerned a little bit

about the markets

when it comes from kathy wood who is

known to be one of the most

forward-thinking

optimistic investors in the market when

she says that there's going to be fear

and there's going to be a valuation

reset a lot of investors pay attention

to this news

here's the exact interview where she

talks about this valuation reset

it seems undeniable to me though that

you must be thinking about the impact

of higher rates on the kinds of stocks

that have been tried and true winners

for you all throughout

whether it's the signature fund the

fintech

innovation fund and even other areas

of the etfs that you have are you

worried that as rates go

up those stocks could come down he's

talking specifically about the federal

funds rate that's what he means by when

he's saying

the rate's going up the federal fund

rates over the past 20 years has gone

down dramatically

right now it's basically at zero it's at

point one percent

which is low as it can really go until

it starts to dip into the negatives

which the federal reserve

does not want to do when the federal

fund rate is low it helps spur

economic activity it makes money more

abundant companies can get loans easier

they can grow their revenues they can

pay

marketing and sales team to grow their

business that helps the economy

grow the problem is when the economy

starts to heat up too much

that causes inflation and the way that

the fed combats inflation

is by raising the federal funds rate if

we see significant inflation in the u.s

the federal reserve will be forced to

raise the federal funds rate

so dr berry is in essence predicting

that the federal reserve will be forced

to raise the federal funds rate

now kathy wood is being asked what

happens if that happens

what happens if the federal funds rate

starts to increase

well i i do believe if rates were to

take a sharp

turn up uh that we would we would see

evaluation reset and our portfolios

would

would be prime candidates for that

valuation reset of course

what she means by valuation reset is

that the multiples her companies are

trading at the ones she's invested in

they will be contracted they will come

down to a much lower p e ratio

a much lower forward earnings and i of

course think kathy wood is correct

there's two basic reasons that i believe

stocks go up or down

the first one is because the company's

growing or declining if a company grows

and it has more customers

more revenue more earnings that company

is going to go up in value

the number two reason that the stock

either goes up or down is multiple

expansion or contraction

this means that every company is traded

on a multiple the price to earnings the

price to sales

every company is given a multiple by

investors that's what they're willing to

pay for that company

that can change over time based on

certain sentiment about the company

i can give you a couple examples apple

for instance throughout most of its

history has traded at a p

e ratio a price to earnings of around

anywhere from eight

to like 15. even as recent as 2018 it

was trading at a 12

price to earnings right now it's trading

at a 30. that means that apple's stock

has over doubled in value without

doubling the amount of earnings or the

amount of sales

they've just doubled in value now i

think there's specific reasons why

even though apple hasn't doubled their

sales they have moved to a more

subscription model

which makes the stock usually trade at a

higher multiple

this is an example of a company being

re-rated investors have looked at the

stock and said

there's certain things going on that

makes us willing to pay more for the

same amount of earnings

that happened with apple and you're also

seeing that happen with disney

as they move to a subscription model

that makes the investors re-rate the

stock

and the multiples might go up what kathy

what is saying in this interview

is that if inflation spikes and that

federal fund rate has to go

up it might cause investors to re-rate

these type of growth stocks

to much lower multiples now again going

back to my portfolio i think i have a

decent amount of money in the stock

market

and i care about protecting this money

so when i hear talks about

inflation on the rise valuation resets

multiple contractions that starts

putting off alarm bells

what do i do in that situation to

protect my money and my assets

that i spent a lot of time building up

well that's what we're going to talk

about

let's first take a look at kathy wood's

investing strategy if we get into a

situation of high inflation or the high

federal funds rate

that causes a valuation reset she

believes that this will eventually

happen

so she's not predicting that this isn't

going to happen she's ready for it and

here's her investing strategy

when it does eventually happen what we

will do during a correction especially a

severe correction

like the coronavirus crisis presented

we will sell names in which which are

creating losses now because

again we've bought them we've

diversified and bought them more

recently

sell those names creating losses to buy

our highest conviction names

what she's outlining is basically a tax

loss harvesting strategy

meaning that she has a lot of stocks

she's invested in when we do eventually

have some type of valuation reset or

recession

she's going to sell out of the companies

that are not her biggest convictions

companies that she basically holds

to just have some cash on hand that can

rise up with inflation

she will sell out of those companies and

then put that money

into her biggest convictions in doing so

she'll take on a realized loss and lower

her tax burden

that is the strategy that kathy wood

plans on doing in the next recession

now dr bury also gives his input on

where we should have our money during

high levels of inflation

he says historically this chart that's

on the screen

shows a good place to be during

significant but relative level of

inflation

so this is a historical chart he says it

may be a little bit different in the

future

but historically long-term government

bonds have been the worst place to put

your money

during high levels of inflation and real

assets are typically what's returned

best

owning real estate and high levels of

inflation seems to be a really good

hedge

but owning stocks isn't a bad place to

be either large cap stocks and small cap

seem to return positively during high

levels of inflation

now michael berry is not the only

notable investor that thinks that bonds

are not the place to be during high

levels of inflation

warren buffett in 2011 gave his input on

where your money should be

if we see inflation so there's a lot of

cash out there actually it's sitting on

the

books of the banks it's sitting on the

balance sheets of corporations and

sitting at the fed

a trillion and a half exactly so um

there

it could if if if people were afraid it

sparked

inflation it could be ignited into fears

of of the fact that there's just so much

money credit created that we could have

inflation uh

but it's sitting there right now

primarily because

i think that we go back to that thing

where we started confidence

do you fee are are you a bond buyer now

at these levels do you worry about

inflation do you worry about the dollar

it's idiotic to buy bonds okay

he just frankly says it's idiotic to buy

bonds and he continues on

hammering this point down that bonds are

not the place to be

no i mean the one thing i can i can tell

you very

few things for sure in economics one

thing i guarantee you is that the value

of the dollar will be less

10 20 50 years from now than it is now i

mean there's any question about that so

it is

so we know that warren buffett does not

like having his money in bonds

especially during

predicted high levels of inflation but

where does he like having his money

the answer i think is pretty obvious so

what are you doing to hedge your bets

i just own good businesses he goes on to

outline how having your money in

productive

businesses is proven to work while

having your money in savings accounts

and money market accounts

is doomed to fail you've got you've got

a few choices you can go with fixed

dollars one way or another your money

market funds

bonds anything else that's guaranteed to

not work

it's so funny i mean people it's funny

for the people who do it but when you

put your money in something that's

supposedly safe if you put your money in

a money market if under treasury bills

now that that is guaranteed

to go south you can buy farms you can

buy

apartment houses duplexes various kinds

of real estate or you can buy good

businesses

and or you can buy little pieces of good

businesses now among that choice

good businesses are the cheapest by some

margin

now this interviewer seems somewhat

shocked by his response

so definitively saying that bonds are

not worth it that they're destined to

fail

and the same thing with money market

accounts or savings accounts

that those are going to be worth less

money in the future but warren buffett

goes on to make another

definitive claim about the future okay

so

so what do you does that give you an

outlook for the uh

stock market over the next 10 years have

you know the dollar okay

yeah ten years from now it'll be a lot

higher i just don't know about 10 months

from now

okay he says 10 years from now the stock

market's going to be a lot

higher i just don't know about 10 months

from now well luckily for us this

interview was in 2011

exactly 10 years ago so we can see if

this prediction was correct and of

course warren buffett was correct if we

go back to 2011

since this interview took place the

stock market's up nearly 200 percent

without dividends being reinvested that

is a significant increase over the past

decade

but we can also look at buffett's

prediction of short-term treasuries

since 2011 the short-term treasury etf

has only returned

1.1 that's barely any gain and that's a

significant loss if you're factoring in

inflation

so buffett was correct on both accounts

the stock market and productive

companies went up over 10 years

and the people that kept their money in

savings or short-term treasuries

or quote-unquote safe assets lost a lot

of money over that time period

they lost not only a lot of value due to

inflation but they lost a lot of

opportunity cost

so to summarize what i've learned

looking into this topic of inflation

is first of all there's a high price to

certainty if you store a large amount of

money in a savings account or a money

market account

or other short-term investments you're

going to pay a high price over a long

period of time

that money's value will be eaten away

day after day

if you have your money in productive

assets they win

over time warren buffett in 2011 said

confidently without question

that people that put their money into

companies will win

over the next 10 years they will get

returns that the stock market will be

much higher

and i believe this seems true today i

think the stock market will be much

higher over the next 10 years

so i plan on continuing to invest not

worrying too much about short-term

trading

and if we do have a significant pullback

if the stock market goes down 50

i plan on employing a strategy similar

to kathy wood

i'll sell out of holdings that i

consider not my core holdings

and i'll put the proceeds of those sales

into the companies i like the most

into my core holdings so i think that

will be a good opportunity to reduce my

tax burden

and build up the core holdings of my

portfolio but until that happens i

continue on with the same strategy

i continue on investing in companies

like disney costco

nike apple and other companies i think

will be very productive and give their

investors good returns

over the next 10 years so i hope this

video answered some of your questions

about inflation

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guys next time