Best Daily Bias Concept (simplified) - Ep 36

Summary

The speaker emphasizes the importance of daily bias in trading, asserting that understanding price direction increases trading ease. They advocate for the use of fair value gaps as a key tool for identifying daily bias, arguing that these gaps provide crucial signs of price movement intentions. The script offers practical examples and strategies for using fair value gaps to predict and capitalize on market trends. The speaker also introduces the 'money making team' and invites viewers to sign up for insights and data on profitable trading, promising a potential mindset shift for those interested in improving their trading success.

Takeaways

• 🤑 Daily bias is crucial in trading as it helps predict the likely direction of the price the next day, making trading easier and potentially more profitable.
• 🚀 Entry models are not as important as having a daily bias; traders can use various edge models to enter the market as long as it aligns with the daily bias.
• 🔍 Fair value gaps are essential tools for determining daily bias, as they indicate the intentions of price movement and can guide traders to profitable trades.
• 💡 Trading without a daily bias is possible, but it is less effective; those with a daily bias are likely to make more money than those without one.
• 📊 The strength of a fair value gap can be determined by how many times the price enters it and whether it leads to a continuation of the trend or a retracement.
• 🔄 Respect and disrespect of fair value gaps are key concepts; a respected gap is one where the price wicks but does not close inside the gap, while a disrespected gap is closed inside or fully below/above it.
• 🕰 Timeframe context is important when using fair value gaps; daily gaps should be considered in the context of weekly gaps, and vice versa.
• 🎯 High probability trades occur when there is a lag with a fair value gap in it, indicating a strong potential for price movement in that direction.
• 📉 Disregard for a fair value gap can signal a weak bias, as seen when the price does not follow through with the expected movement after entering a gap.
• 📈 Traders should aim to identify and trade during high probability price action, sacrificing one day's trade to understand the bias for the rest of the period.
• 🌐 The speaker offers a mindset shift and an opportunity to sign up for a newsletter to receive personal trading data, insights, and potentially improve trading success.

Q & A

What is the main focus of the video script?

The main focus of the video script is to explain the concept of 'daily bias' in trading and how to use 'fair value gaps' to determine the direction of price movement consistently.

What does the speaker claim to be the most important aspect of trading?

The speaker claims that 'daily bias' is the most important aspect of trading because it can predict the likely direction of price movement for the next day.

What is the significance of 'fair value gaps' according to the speaker?

According to the speaker, 'fair value gaps' are significant because they are signs left behind by price movement, indicating its future intentions and helping to determine the daily bias.

Why does the speaker emphasize that the entry model is irrelevant?

The speaker emphasizes that the entry model is irrelevant because the key is to get into the market with the daily bias, and traders can use any edge model they prefer as long as it aligns with the daily bias.

How does the speaker suggest using 'fair value gaps' to determine daily bias?

The speaker suggests studying the 'fair value gaps' to understand the price's intention to move higher or lower, and using these gaps as indicators to take trades based on the expected direction of price movement.

What is the difference between a strong and weak 'fair value gap' according to the video?

A strong 'fair value gap' is one that only requires a single retracement to push the price significantly in the intended direction, whereas a weak 'fair value gap' is one that does not push the price effectively and may require multiple retracements.

What is the role of the 'weekly time frame' in the context of 'daily bias'?

The 'weekly time frame' provides context to the 'daily bias'. It helps traders understand the bigger picture and the strength of the 'fair value gaps', influencing the probability of the price movement.

How does the speaker define 'respect' and 'disrespect' in the context of 'fair value gaps'?

In the context of 'fair value gaps', 'respect' means that the price action wicks the gap without closing inside it, indicating the gap's strength. 'Disrespect' occurs when the price closes inside the gap or fully retraces to it, showing weakness.

What is the importance of understanding the 'daily bias' in trading according to the script?

Understanding the 'daily bias' is important in trading as it helps traders to filter high-probability trades from low-probability ones, leading to more informed and profitable trading decisions.

How does the speaker suggest traders can improve their trading strategy using 'fair value gaps'?

The speaker suggests that traders can improve their strategy by using 'fair value gaps' on different time frames, waiting for the right moment to enter trades, and managing risk by setting take-profit levels and going break-even.

What is the 'money making team' mentioned in the script?

The 'money making team' is the speaker's mentorship team, which is presumably a group of traders that apply the concepts discussed in the script to make profits in the market.

What is the mindset shift the speaker wants to give to the viewers?

The mindset shift the speaker wants to give is to understand the importance of 'fair value gaps' and 'daily bias' in trading, and to realize that these concepts can lead to significant profitability, even outperforming hedge funds.

Why does the speaker mention signing up for the email list?

The speaker mentions signing up for the email list to provide viewers with his personal trading data, insights, and a potential mindset shift, aiming to help them become more successful in trading.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Understanding Daily Bias and Fair Value Gaps in Trading

The speaker emphasizes the importance of identifying daily bias in trading to predict price movements effectively. They argue that the entry model is irrelevant as long as it aligns with the daily bias. The speaker introduces the concept of fair value gaps, which are price signs indicating future price action. By studying these gaps, traders can determine the daily bias. The speaker provides examples of how these concepts have been applied profitably, suggesting that trading with a daily bias is more lucrative than trading without one. They also discuss how to interpret fair value gaps, emphasizing the importance of retracements and the strength of these gaps in guiding trades.

05:01

🔍 Analyzing Price Action and Contextualizing Time Frames

This paragraph delves deeper into the analysis of price action through fair value gaps, explaining how they can be used to ascertain the strength of a lag (price movement). The speaker discusses the significance of context within different time frames, such as daily, weekly, and monthly, and how these affect the interpretation of fair value gaps. They illustrate how gaps can act as magnets or push prices away, and the importance of respecting or disrespecting these gaps based on the price's interaction with them. The speaker also clarifies misconceptions about daily bias, explaining that it's about identifying high-probability trades rather than attempting to predict every daily candle.

10:02

📊 Leveraging Fair Value Gaps for High Probability Trades

The speaker continues to explain the practical application of fair value gaps across various time frames, from daily to weekly and monthly. They stress that these gaps serve as magnets, guiding the direction of trades, and that traders should wait for confirmation through wicks (small price movements) to respect or disrespect these gaps. The speaker provides examples of how to use fair value gaps to enter trades and manage risk, including taking profits and going break-even. They also highlight a successful trade executed by the 'money making team' using these principles, emphasizing the strategy's effectiveness.

15:04

🚀 Mindset Shift and Access to Personal Trading Data

In the final paragraph, the speaker offers a mindset shift for viewers, encouraging them to sign up for an email list to receive personal trading data. This data is intended to provide insights into the speaker's trading success, which they claim outperforms hedge funds. The speaker promises to send an email with their trading insights between specific dates in August, aiming to inspire and guide viewers towards successful trading practices. The paragraph concludes with a reminder to watch the weekly forecast and a thank you note, accompanied by background music.

Keywords

💡Daily Bias

Daily Bias refers to the predominant direction in which a financial instrument is expected to move within a trading day. In the context of the video, it is a crucial aspect of trading as it helps traders anticipate the likely movement of prices. The speaker emphasizes that having a daily bias can significantly increase the chances of making profitable trades. For example, the script mentions that 'if you don't know the money making team, is my mentorship team let's start off, with saying that the entry model is completely irrelevant you can get very, creative with your Edge model do, whatever you like to as long as you get, in the market for your daily bias.'

💡Fair Value Gaps

Fair Value Gaps are price gaps that occur when the market reopens after a break and the price moves away from the previous close, indicating a potential change in the market sentiment. The video suggests that these gaps can provide valuable insights into the market's direction. The speaker uses fair value gaps as a tool to determine the daily bias, stating that 'fair value gaps are the signs that price is leaving behind when price is planning to do something.'

💡Entry Model

An Entry Model in trading refers to a strategy or method used by a trader to decide when to enter a trade. The video script mentions that the entry model is irrelevant as long as it aligns with the trader's daily bias, highlighting that the focus should be on the overall market direction rather than the specific entry point. The speaker says, 'the entry model is completely irrelevant you can get very creative with your Edge model do, whatever you like to as long as you get, in the market for your daily bias.'

💡Price Action

Price Action is the movement of price over time, reflecting the collective sentiment of all market participants. It is a key concept in the video, as the speaker uses price action to interpret fair value gaps and predict the daily bias. For instance, the script describes how 'reading the fair value gaps' can inform a trader about the market's intentions, such as 'we are continuing higher right here price is leaving a sign behind, because it's leaving a fair if I get, behind right there that it wants indeed, to continue higher.'

💡Mentorship Team

A Mentorship Team typically consists of experienced individuals who guide and support others in learning and development. In the video, the speaker mentions the 'money making team' as their mentorship team, implying a group that helps traders understand and apply trading concepts like daily bias and fair value gaps. The script refers to this team when it says, 'if you don't know the money making team, is my mentorship team.'

💡Respect and Disrespect

In the context of the video, 'Respect' and 'Disrespect' are terms used to describe how the market interacts with fair value gaps. A gap is 'respected' if the price moves towards it without closing it, indicating its strength. Conversely, a gap is 'disrespected' if the price closes inside the gap or beyond it, suggesting weakness. The speaker uses these terms to illustrate how traders can gauge the strength of fair value gaps and make trading decisions accordingly, as in 'whenever we are wicking a fair value Gap, that is when we respect a fair value Gap, whenever we are disrespecting a fair, value Gap we are closing inside of it or, we are closing all the way below it or, above it.'

💡High Probability and Low Probability

High Probability and Low Probability are terms used to describe the likelihood of a certain trading scenario occurring. In the video, the speaker discusses how traders can use fair value gaps to identify high probability trades, which are more likely to be profitable. The script mentions that 'high probability being whenever we have a lag with a fair value in it it's likely a strong lag unless and that makes it low probability we have a lack with a verify, Gap in it but on the time frames above, it there's a fair value Gap just below, that leg and that is fractal that goes, for every single time frame then the lag, is low probability.'

💡Time Frames

Time Frames in trading refer to the intervals of time used to analyze price movements and make trading decisions. The video emphasizes the importance of understanding time frames in relation to each other, such as daily, weekly, and monthly charts. The speaker explains that fair value gaps should be considered within the context of higher time frames, stating that 'you need to have your daily time frame in context of your weekly time frame so the weekly did, have a very very Gap lower below that leg so that lag is already weak.'

💡Risk Management

Risk Management is a crucial aspect of trading that involves strategies to minimize and control potential losses. In the video, the speaker mentions the importance of managing risk, suggesting strategies like going 'break even' and taking profits to ensure that traders protect their capital. The script advises, 'always manage risk, means gong break even taking profits, very important.'

💡Weekly Forecast

A Weekly Forecast in the context of trading is a prediction or analysis of how a financial instrument is expected to perform over the course of a week. The speaker mentions a 'weekly forecast' as part of their service, indicating that they provide insights into market movements on a weekly basis. The script refers to this when it says, 'I will personally send, you an email throughout next week with, my data so you can expect that email, anywhere from Sunday 3rd of August to, Sunday the 10th of August if you sign up.'

Highlights

Daily bias is crucial in trading as it helps predict the likely direction of price movement the next day.

Entry model is irrelevant; the focus should be on getting into the market with the daily bias.

Fair value gaps are key indicators of price movement and can lead to the daily bias.

Fair value gaps are signs left behind by price when it plans to move in a certain direction.

Studying fair value gaps can provide insights into the daily bias.

A single fair value gap can be enough to take a trade based on the bias.

Strong fair value gaps typically do not require multiple retracements to push price.

Weak fair value gaps can be identified by their failure to push price significantly.

The importance of context between daily and weekly time frames when analyzing fair value gaps.

High probability trades occur when there is a lag with a fair value gap in it.

Low probability trades are indicated by a lack of a fair value gap or disrespecting a gap.

Weekly fair value gaps can act as magnets or push price away, depending on the context.

Respect and disrespect of fair value gaps are determined by how price interacts with them.

Wicking a fair value gap signifies respect, while closing inside or fully outside of it signifies disrespect.

Daily bias is about filtering high-probability price action from low-probability action.

Professional traders know when and where to trade based on their trading plan.

Fair value gaps can be used on any time frame, but higher time frames are more significant.

Understanding fair value gaps can lead to a complete mindset shift in trading.

The speaker offers to share personal trading data for insights into profitability and trading frequency.

Transcripts

the daily bias is the most important

aspect about trading because if you of

course can know where price will likely

head toward the next day then it becomes

very easy of course I'm stating the

obvious there but today I want to

exactly go over how you can get to a

daily bias very consistently and how I

do it as well and I will show you a few

examples where the money making team has

applied this concept and this week even

made profit off of these Concepts again

if you don't know the money making team

is my mentorship team let's start off

with saying that the entry model is

completely irrelevant you can get very

creative with your Edge model do

whatever you like to as long as you get

in the market for your daily bias what I

mainly use and if you've been here for a

longer period of time you will know that

I love fair value gaps fair value gaps

tell you everything you need to know

because fair value gaps are the signs

that price is leaving behind when price

is planning to do something so what do I

mean by that when price is moving higher

and it wants to continue going higher

price will have fair value gaps telling

you exactly what it wants to do and

those fair value gaps can lead you to

your daily bias and all you need right

there is to study the fair value gaps so

whenever there's a guru who tells you a

fancy concept about getting to your

daily bias then just remember all you

need is fair value gaps and can you

trade without daily bias yeah you can

but who will make more money the one

trading with a daily bias or without a

daily bias the one with a daily bias so

if you're trying to trade without a

daily bias ask yourself are you just

being lazy or is it truly beneficial to

you so how do we use these fair value

apps to tell us what price will do if we

study this piece of price action right

here what can we see first off we can

see that we are continuing higher right

here price is leaving a sign behind

because it's leaving a fair if I get

behind right there that it wants indeed

to continue higher so only having this

fair value Gap right there is enough for

you to take a trade off of because we're

clearly heading towards this high now

why are we heading towards that high

well because if we read the fair value

gaps how many times have we gotten into

that fair fire gap that is sitting right

there on the left once right there Then

twice right there then a third time

right there and then a fourth time right

there and then here it got fully

rebalanced right there does this fair

value Gap seem to you like a strong fair

value Gap no why not because if there

was a strong verify Gap don't you think

it would have already pushed price all

the way lower somewhere around there it

would have never retraced to it strong

fair value gaps only need one single

retracement towards them to to then

expand or drop lower of course that's me

stating the obvious but a lot of people

don't read price action and they don't

take it into account because when we see

this we're coming into it that many

times and we fully rebalance it right

there then these days when we are

leaving behind this fair value Gap dead

right there you only expect a sting into

the fair value Gap right there and you

target what the price action where we

have no fair value cups left because a

lag without a fair value Gap in it is a

weaker than a lag with a fair value Gap

in it always remember that so this right

there is your drone liquidity so that

right there is your highest probability

price action and then if we continue

looking at Price a little bit further we

have a fair value Gap there now what is

happening there we are disrespecting

that provide Gap why are we

disrespecting it remember what we did

right there with that for Value Gap we

fully closed above that verify Gap what

are we doing there we are fully closing

below that firefighter Gap if price

truly wanted to continue high right

there don't you think this day would

likely have a wick and we would likely

see higher prices on that day already

and would likely respect that fair value

Gap clearly it's not a strong fair value

Gap but I just told you that when you

have a lag like this with a fervical in

it it's a strong leg yes but you need to

have your daily time frame in context of

your weekly time frame so the weekly did

have a very very Gap lower below that

leg so that lag is already weak so how

can you view that you have high

probability and low probability high

probability being whenever we have a lag

with a fair value in it it's likely a

strong lag unless and that makes it low

probability we have a lack with a verify

Gap in it but on the time frames above

it there's a fair value Gap just below

that leg and that is fractal that goes

for every single time frame then the lag

is low probability or of course when

there's no fair flag up in the leg then

it's also low probability so right there

we are trading towards a weekly fair

value Gap right there that Weekly Fair

fire gap can act as two ways it can act

as a magnet so price wants to navigate

towards it and it can do what it can

push price away again so when we look at

this weekly favor Gap right there can

you see the difference how we are

reacting towards this weekly fair value

Gap and that daily for flag up right

there we are clearly respecting that

Weekly provide Gap now respect and

disrespect you look at it on the

respective time frame that the Fairfax

has formed because of course on the

lower time frame we will have disrespect

right there and now again it's attention

to detail because here we are creating a

fair value Gap right there that fair

value Gap will it push price lower when

we are coming into the fair value Gap

the first we need to ask ourselves which

one is the stronger fair value Gap the

weekly is stronger because of course

there's a reason why the daily needs to

be context of the weekly because weekly

PD arrays are stronger than daily PD

rates so the probabilities are already

in our favor their price wants to

continue higher right here and that gets

confirmed when daily pair value gaps

right there stop following through lower

because if this wanted to continue lower

it would have made a new Fair variable

lore because remember price are telling

you signs on where it wants to go and

the signs are the fair value gaps and

afterwards we are seeing a new fair

value Gap higher right there that fair

value Gap again acts as a magnet and we

can use it to trade off of afterwards we

have a new fair value Gap higher so

again what is the bias we are likely

continuing higher ride then here it

becomes interesting because what are we

seeing right there we came into that

daily for vegap once on that Wednesday

right there and we had a long week and

afterwards we take out that low that

long width low right there and we come

back again in the daily fire gap what is

price telling you right there price is

telling you right there that this fair

value Gap is not strong enough to push

price higher because otherwise it would

have already done it on that day right

there so this day and that day and that

day and that day they confirm what they

confirm that this daily is not strong

enough to push price higher because

compare this daily for Vega to that

daily for Vega and to this daily for

vehicle right there only one sting

needed only one sting needed one two

three four five six days before we

expand higher who are you kidding not us

because we know that for backup is not

strong enough so if we are continuing

lower where are we likely continuing

lower from what are we seeing on the way

down we created what a daily Fair Gap

right there that daily fair value Gap is

our premium array to continue lower from

what does that create the premium rate

to that discount array so there you

create what your context what we

hammered on so much and I can hear you

think what you didn't really go into

daily bias let me clarify that first off

you need to understand day trading does

not mean everyday trading daily bias

does not mean that you try to predict

every daily candle you try to predict

the highest probability candles because

when you can predict the highest

probability daily candles then you know

where to enter now if you want me to

give you data data on my personal

trading plan how I've been able to use

this and outperform every hedge fund in

the world and stick to the end and I'll

tell you how you can get that data so

that daily bias is again filtering out

you're filtering out the high

probability from the low probability

price action if you are trying to trade

every day then that means that there is

no high probability price action and

there is no low probability price action

for you well there is but you are just

not paying attention to it trading every

day means you are neutral professional

Traders know when to trade where and

when to trade if you can't know where

and when to trade then you likely don't

have a trading plan set because that is

what you need to know so the fair value

gaps are leading you to your daily bias

why because when we look at this price

action again and we zoom out a little

bit and we use the verify gaps that we

said all right these are high

probability for five gaps it was this

fair value Gap and that fair value Gap

that discount rate to that premium array

right there is where you want to get

involved that is when and where you want

to get involved and then when we look at

this fair value Gap right there that is

again a high probability and that is

where and when you want to get involved

because you want to get involved in that

discount array and you want to Target

that premium array right there and then

afterwards same thing goes for this

favaga that is where you want to get

involved and that is your target right

there sorry to interrupt I'm currently

editing this video and I just want to

clear it up I just want to make it as

clear as possible so what I'm trying to

tell you throughout this video is I'm

constantly trying to tell you you can

use the fair value gaps on any time

frame because we talked about the time

frames being in context of the time

frame above it right you have your daily

incomes as a weekly weekly in context of

monthly

etc etc that's with every time frame so

the fair value gaps they are acting as a

magnet so you can trade towards them if

of course they are on the higher time

frame you would not trade towards a five

minute or one minute fair value that's

absolutely nonsense but the four hour

daily weekly and monthly they are great

indicators great fair value gaps to

trade towards them and then once we

reach those fair value gaps what can you

do well then we can potentially trade

off of them to continue higher or

continue lower how do we view that and

that is exactly what I'm trying to clear

up right here how do we view that we

view that by respect and disrespect

whenever we are wicking a fair value Gap

that is when we respect a fair value Gap

whenever we are disrespecting a fair

value Gap we are closing inside of it or

we are closing all the way below it or

above it and then of course I mean when

we are closing below a bullish verify

gap for example this Fair flag up right

there that is disrespecting and whenever

we close above or in a bearish verify

gap for example this verified cap right

there that is disrespecting again and

respect is what we're seeing here this

verify Gap that fair value Gap and that

for Value Gap they are only wicking and

why is that important the wick because

when you can understand and we form a

bias here once we have that first

Scandal so you don't even need to be

trading that first candle right and

that's what I'm trying to tell you in

the video as well you don't even need to

be trading that first Scandal because

when you wait for that week then all

these candles the one two three four

they are obvious they are obvious that

they want to expand higher just based

off of this day right there so

essentially what you're doing you're

sacrificing one day to know where the

rest of the days are trading towards the

same thing with this right here you

would wait you wait here before I get

being created it can act as a magnet

perfect so we might want to trade

towards it once we reach that we want to

be careful then once we disrespect that

this candle is extremely obvious why

because there's a weekly Fairfax sitting

just below that leg right there and with

lag I'm just aiming at your swing low to

the swing high that is a lag then the

same here once we respect this right

there we respect that fair value Gap

these days are super obvious so you're

you're sacrificing again one day to know

all these daily biases right there once

we create that daily before I get right

there again once we trade into it then

here you could take a loss right there

but afterwards you recoup that loss by

having a winner right there because this

is already telling you weak verify Gap

strong fair value Gap you wait this day

that day that Thursday is where you want

to trade that Friday is potentially

where you want to be trading no

Financial advice perfect let's continue

with the video so how can you get

involved all you need to do right there

is look for a fair value Gap lower on

the one hour time frame and you enter

off of that so here on the one hour what

do you do you wait for one fair value

Gap and you wait for a second verify Gap

right there and you cover the

intermediate term high right there and

you target a one to two because one to

two is all you need and then eventually

when you get used to the trading

strategy then you can Target the

ultimate loss but always manage risk

means gong break even taking profits

very important so here we are on GBP New

Zealand dollar and this is where the

money making team has capitalized on

this move right here if we Mark out this

weekly Fairfax Captain if we are

continuing higher where are we likely

continuing higher from discount array to

the premium rate right right there so if

we drop into the daily time frame you

can see that at this moment right here

we had a daily fair value Gap sitting

right there now when we looked at this

pair we were sitting right there and the

thing we saw was the following we knew

alright if the weekly wants to continue

higher then right here the week he will

continue higher off of this discount

rate off of that fair value Gap if the

daily wants to continue lower then we

knew the daily will continue lower off

of this fair value Gap right there but

if the daily wants to continue even

lower what will it do it will create a

new fair value Gap lower right there so

what did we see we saw that on this day

so this is a Tuesday and we wanted to

trade on that Wednesday and I'll tell

you why if we Mark out that low right

there and we go into the one hour time

frame and here we are on the one hour

time frame and what you can see is that

once we trade into that low right there

that is when we wanted to get involved

why because if we Zoom back out to the

Daily time frame what did we just do

we prevented a daily Fair very Gap from

forming which means that this high right

there that is your Target because this

lag lower does it have a fair value in

it no so that lag is what low

probability of holding what does that

become that Weekly fair value right

there becomes high probability of

pushing price at least until that high

and that leads to your what Your Daily

bias just using what fair value gas so

again if we'll take a look at this entry

then right here if you use the fair

value gaps again that alone could be an

entry covering that low right there and

targeting that high right there and then

you get tagged in and eventually it hits

take profit right there and here I use

the fair value gaps to create my daily

bias and I use the fair value gaps to

get to my entry model and to my Target

and you use the fair value gaps to go

break even it's everything the fair

value gaps are everything if you can

understand this that is so extremely

strong now I want to give you an

absolute mindset shift and I want to

open your eyes so please go towards

oreo.io sign up for the email list right

there and then on Sunday so this Sunday

8 30 a.m New York Eastern that is the

3rd of September I will personally send

you an email throughout next week with

my data so you can expect that email

anywhere from Sunday 3rd of August to

Sunday the 10th of August if you sign up

before Sunday 8 30 a.m in that email you

will get my data you will see how

profitable I have been and you will see

how much days I trade you will get all

the insights it will be a complete

mindset shift and again why does my data

matter well I like to think I have a

great idea of what I'm doing and that is

backed up by having an investor and

being a private Equity Trader so if you

would like to follow in my footsteps or

at least be somewhat successful in

trading then signing up might be a great

idea for you because I think a lot of

people need that eye opener like I

mentioned I'm out performing hedge funds

so remember that remember the newsletter

and I'll see you on the weekly forecast

on Sunday perfect thank you

foreign

[Music]