Nuclear iron dome: Can nukes be intercepted? | Annie Jacobsen and Lex Fridman

Summary

The United States' missile defense system relies on 44 interceptor missiles, but with a success rate of only 50%, it is far from foolproof. Deployed in Alaska and California, these interceptors target incoming missiles during their midcourse phase, using an Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle to collide with warheads at incredible speeds. However, the system is on a strategic pause, and current technologies like THAAD and Aegis are only effective against smaller threats. Against nations like North Korea, which is believed to possess up to 100 nuclear warheads, the U.S. missile defense may be unable to intercept enough missiles, leaving the country vulnerable to a large-scale attack.

Takeaways

• 😀 The United States has only 44 interceptor missiles to defend against nuclear attacks, with 40 stationed in Alaska and 4 in California.
• 😀 The success rate of the U.S. interceptor system is around 50%, meaning it only works half of the time.
• 😀 Interceptor missiles target incoming ICBMs during the midcourse phase, after the boost phase but before re-entry.
• 😀 The interceptors use an exoatmospheric kill vehicle, which relies on kinetic energy to destroy the warhead, not explosives.
• 😀 Intercepting a missile moving at high speeds (e.g., Mach 20) is an extraordinary challenge, and the success rate is limited.
• 😀 The U.S. missile defense program is currently on 'strategic pause,' meaning there is no active development to improve the system's effectiveness.
• 😀 The U.S. defense systems, like THAAD and Aegis, are designed for smaller, tactical threats, not for intercepting a full-scale nuclear missile attack.
• 😀 There were discussions about deploying missile defense systems along the U.S. West Coast after 9/11, but it was never implemented.
• 😀 North Korea is believed to have 50–100 nuclear warheads, with no transparency about its missile tests, unlike other nuclear nations.
• 😀 In the scenario of a North Korean nuclear attack, there is not enough time or interceptor capacity to guarantee success, even if multiple interceptors are launched.

Q & A

How many interceptor missiles does the United States have to defend against nuclear missile attacks?

The United States has 44 interceptor missiles total, with 40 stationed in Alaska and 4 at Vandenberg Air Force Base in Santa Barbara.

What is the success rate of the U.S. interceptor missile system?

The success rate of the U.S. interceptor missile system is around 50%, meaning they work about half the time.

How does the interceptor missile system work?

The interceptor missile system involves shooting a missile with a missile inside it. This 'exoatmospheric kill vehicle' tries to destroy the warhead by sheer force, with no explosives involved, as the two objects collide at extreme speeds.

Why is the success rate of the interceptor missile system around 50%?

The success rate is around 50% due to the difficulty of intercepting fast-moving missiles, compounded by the fact that the interceptor system is not as advanced as people may think, with some programs currently paused.

What are the limitations of the U.S. missile defense systems like Iron Dome or THAAD?

While the Iron Dome and THAAD systems are effective at intercepting some threats, they are only designed to shoot down one missile at a time. They cannot handle large-scale attacks, like multiple incoming ICBMs, and are mainly effective against smaller, tactical missiles.

Why are the THAAD and Aegis missile systems primarily deployed overseas and at sea?

The THAAD systems are deployed overseas, and Aegis systems are stationed on ships at sea. They are used for tactical defense against regional threats, such as North Korean missiles, but have not been placed along the U.S. West Coast due to budget constraints and strategic priorities.

What would happen if just one nuclear missile gets through the U.S. interceptor systems?

If just one nuclear missile gets through the interceptor systems, it would result in full-scale nuclear warfare, which is why the effectiveness of these systems is critical.

How many nuclear warheads does North Korea currently possess?

North Korea is believed to have around 50 nuclear warheads, though some estimates suggest the number could be over 100. However, due to the lack of transparency in North Korea’s nuclear program, the exact number is uncertain.

Why doesn't North Korea announce its missile tests like other nuclear powers?

North Korea does not announce its missile tests, unlike other nuclear powers, which provide transparency to avoid accidental nuclear escalation. This lack of transparency adds to the unpredictability and threat posed by North Korea.

Can the U.S. interceptor systems effectively defend against a nuclear missile attack from North Korea?

The current U.S. interceptor systems, due to their limitations, would likely struggle to defend against a nuclear missile attack from North Korea. The systems have a 50% success rate, and there may not be enough time to effectively intercept multiple incoming missiles.