The Secret List of (soon to be) Extinct Jobs ———sincerely, AI

Summary

The video script discusses the significant impact of AI on the job market, referencing a study on AI automation's effects on various jobs. It highlights that while AI could replace millions of jobs, particularly in higher-wage sectors, it also brings opportunities for new roles and industries. Historical examples of general purpose technologies like the printing press, steam engine, and internet illustrate how disruptive innovations have historically led to societal and labor force advancements. The script emphasizes the importance of embracing change, learning, and adapting to harness AI's power for positive outcomes, suggesting that technology itself is neutral and its use depends on human choices.

Takeaways

• 🧠 The biggest risk of AI is the disruption to jobs, with AI potentially replacing millions of jobs.
• 📚 A paper from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI analyzes the impact of AI automation on different jobs, focusing on large language models' effect on the US Labor Force.
• 📉 Higher-wage jobs are more exposed to AI automation in the current wave compared to previous automation waves that impacted lower-wage jobs more.
• 👥 Jobs and tasks are assessed by human raters and AI like GPT-4 to determine the level of AI impact.
• 👨‍🏫 Historically, general purpose technologies (GPTs) have caused widespread usage, continuous improvement, complimentary innovations, and massive labor force disruption.
• 🚂 Examples of past GPTs include the printing press, steam engine, electricity, and the internet, each causing significant changes and job displacements.
• 📈 Despite job losses, GPTs have improved the quality of life and created new job opportunities, such as railway workers, electrical engineers, and software engineers.
• 🔍 The research predicts that jobs like interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists will be highly impacted by AI.
• 💡 Jobs requiring science and critical thinking skills are less likely to be impacted by AI, while programming and writing skills show a higher susceptibility to AI impact.
• 🚀 New opportunities in AI are emerging, such as prompt engineering and AI development, empowering individuals to innovate across various industries.
• 🌐 Technology itself is neutral; it's up to us to decide how it's used and to create opportunities for positive impact.

Q & A

Who is Andrew and what is his significance in the context of AI?

Andrew is a globally recognized leader in AI, the founder of deeplearning.ai, CEO of Landing AI, General Partner at AI Fund, Chairman and Co-founder of Coursera, and an Adjunct Professor at Stanford University's Computer Science Department. His significance lies in his extensive knowledge and contributions to the field of AI.

What is the potential impact of AI on jobs according to the transcript?

The transcript suggests that AI could have a significant impact on jobs, with the potential to replace millions of jobs, including 4.8 million American jobs, as per a tool mentioned in the video.

What does the paper from the University of Pennsylvania in collaboration with Open AI aim to analyze?

The paper aims to analyze the impact of AI automation, specifically large language models, on the US Labor Force. It seeks to understand how different jobs are affected by AI and the level of exposure to automation.

How does the current wave of AI automation differ from previous automation in terms of job exposure?

Unlike the previous wave of automation that mostly affected lower-wage jobs, the current wave of AI automation seems to impact higher-wage jobs more, as these jobs have tasks that are more exposed to AI automation.

What is the role of human raters and GPT-4 in assessing the level of AI impact on jobs?

Human raters and GPT-4 are used to assess the level of automation impact on jobs by evaluating the tasks associated with each job and determining how much AI can influence or replace those tasks.

Can you provide an example of how the paper analyzes the impact of AI on a specific job?

The paper takes the example of acute care nurses, whose work activities include operating medical instruments and preparing medical supplies. These tasks are then evaluated by human raters and GPT-4 to determine the extent of AI's potential impact.

What are general purpose technologies (GPTs) and how do they affect society and the labor force?

General purpose technologies (GPTs) are groundbreaking technologies characterized by widespread usage, continuous improvement, generation of complementary innovations, and massive disruption to both the labor force and society as a whole. Examples include the printing press, steam engine, electricity, and the internet.

How did the invention of the printing press impact the labor force?

The invention of the printing press led to a significant increase in the availability of written text, which in turn led to the Renaissance, the Reformation, and numerous revolutions. However, it also caused displacement in the labor force, as there was less need for scribes, manuscript copiers, and those involved in decorating books and producing parchment and vellum.

What are some of the jobs that are predicted to be most highly impacted by AI according to the research?

The research predicts that jobs such as interpreters and translators, survey researchers, poets, lyricists, creative writers, animal scientists, and public relations specialists will be most highly impacted by AI, with exposure levels ranging from 66.7% to 76%.

How does the importance of science and critical thinking skills relate to the exposure to AI automation?

The importance of science and critical thinking skills are strongly negatively associated with exposure to AI automation, meaning that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by current large language models.

What opportunities does AI present for new job creation and industry improvement?

AI presents opportunities for new job creation and industry improvement by enabling the development of technologies on top of AI, empowering people to innovate and improve across various industries, including small businesses like pizza shops, which can benefit from AI-powered tools to save costs and improve operations.

What is Andrew's advice for those who want to be part of the AI revolution?

Andrew advises people to embrace change, learn, adapt, and harness the power of AI technology. He encourages individuals to be proactive, learn how to use AI to improve industries, and influence policy makers on how these technologies should be used.

Outlines

00:00

🧑‍💼 Impact of AI on Jobs and Historical Technological Disruptions

The paragraph introduces the significant risk of AI as job disruption, referencing Andrew Ng, a renowned expert in the field. It discusses a study from the University of Pennsylvania and OpenAI that analyzes AI's impact on various jobs, particularly focusing on large language models' effects on the US labor force. The study uses human assessors and AI to evaluate the level of automation potential for different tasks. The paragraph also takes a historical perspective, comparing AI to past general-purpose technologies like the printing press and steam engine, which brought about significant changes and labor disruptions but also led to societal advancements and new job creation.

05:02

🔧 Disruptions Caused by General Purpose Technologies and AI's Future Impact

This paragraph delves into the historical labor market disruptions caused by inventions like the printing press, steam engine, and electricity, leading to the creation of new jobs and industries. It highlights how each technological advancement improved the quality of life but also displaced certain jobs. The discussion then shifts to AI's current impact, predicting that jobs like interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists will be highly affected. The paragraph also notes that occupations requiring science and critical thinking skills are less likely to be impacted, while programming and writing are more susceptible. It emphasizes the potential for AI to enable new job opportunities and industries, just as past technologies have done.

10:02

🚀 Opportunities in AI and the Role of Policy and Adaptation

The final paragraph emphasizes the potential for AI to create new opportunities and industries, encouraging viewers to consider how they can provide value and be part of the conversation around AI's use. It mentions Andrew Ng's talk about opportunities in AI and the development of technologies built on top of AI, which are now accessible to a wider range of industries. The paragraph also touches on the importance of being proactive in learning and adapting to AI, as well as influencing policy to ensure responsible use of technology. The call to action is for individuals to harness AI's power and contribute positively to society.

Keywords

💡AI (Artificial Intelligence)

AI refers to the simulation of human intelligence in machines that are programmed to think like humans and mimic their actions. In the video's context, AI is a central theme as it discusses the impact of AI on jobs and the workforce. The script mentions that AI could replace millions of jobs, indicating its transformative power in various industries.

💡Disruption to Jobs

Disruption to jobs refers to the significant changes and potential loss of employment due to technological advancements. The video script highlights this concept by discussing how AI, particularly large language models, may impact different jobs in the US Labor Force, leading to job transformation or loss.

💡General Purpose Technologies (GPTs)

GPTs are technologies with widespread applications that can be used across various industries and sectors. The script uses GPTs to illustrate how groundbreaking technologies like the printing press, steam engine, and internet have historically led to improvements in quality of life but also caused significant labor force disruptions.

💡Large Language Models

Large language models are advanced AI systems that can process and generate human-like text based on the input they receive. The video script discusses a paper analyzing the impact of these models on the US Labor Force, indicating that they have the potential to automate tasks currently performed by humans.

💡Automation

Automation refers to the use of technology to perform tasks with minimal human intervention. The script discusses how AI and automation can lead to job displacement, as machines take over tasks previously done by humans, particularly in higher-wage jobs.

💡Innovation

Innovation is the process of creating new ideas, devices, or methods. The video script uses the term to describe how general purpose technologies generate complimentary innovations, leading to new industries and job opportunities, despite initial disruptions.

💡Job Exposure

Job exposure in the context of the video refers to the extent to which jobs are susceptible to being replaced or transformed by AI. The script provides percentages to illustrate the high level of exposure for certain jobs, such as interpreters and translators.

💡Critical Thinking Skills

Critical thinking skills involve the ability to analyze and evaluate information to form reasoned judgments. The video script mentions that occupations requiring these skills are less likely to be impacted by AI, suggesting that they offer some level of protection against job displacement.

💡Programming and Writing

Programming and writing are specific skills that the script identifies as having a strong positive association with job exposure to AI. This implies that jobs involving programming and writing may be more vulnerable to automation by AI technologies.

💡Opportunities in AI

Opportunities in AI refer to the potential for new job creation and industry development as a result of AI advancements. The video script suggests that despite job losses, AI also presents opportunities for innovation and the creation of new roles, such as AI developers and prompt engineers.

💡Embracing Change

Embracing change is the concept of accepting and adapting to new circumstances or technologies. The video script encourages viewers to be proactive, learn, and adapt to AI advancements, harnessing their power to improve industries and create value.

Highlights

The biggest risk of AI is the disruption to jobs, with AI predicted to replace 4.8 million American jobs.

Andrew Ng, a globally recognized leader in AI, discusses the impact of AI on the labor force.

A paper from the University of Pennsylvania in collaboration with OpenAI analyzes the impact of AI automation on different jobs.

Higher-wage jobs are more exposed to AI automation in the current wave compared to the previous wave of automation.

Jobs and tasks are assessed by human raters and AI like GPT-4 to determine the level of potential automation.

The historical context of general purpose technologies shows a pattern of widespread usage, continuous improvement, and massive disruption.

The invention of the printing press revolutionized access to written text and led to significant societal changes.

The steam engine and subsequent innovations led to the Industrial Revolution and major shifts in labor demands.

The advent of electricity and the internet has similarly transformed society and created new job categories.

AI is expected to highly impact jobs such as interpreters, translators, survey researchers, poets, and public relations specialists.

Science and critical thinking skills are negatively associated with exposure to AI, suggesting less impact on related occupations.

Programming and writing skills show a strong positive association with exposure, indicating higher susceptibility to AI impact.

AI technologies will not only impact jobs directly but also through secondary technologies built on top of AI.

Despite job losses, AI will bring improvements in quality of life and create new opportunities for employment.

Andrew Ng emphasizes the importance of embracing AI and creating opportunities in industries of all sizes.

AI technologies were historically expensive and complex, but are now accessible for development across various industries.

Andrew Ng's talk, 'Opportunities in AI,' discusses the development of technologies on top of AI and their potential.

Landing AI, co-founded by Andrew Ng, is an example of building on AI technology to improve industries.

Mitsu, a Japanese conglomerate, approached Andrew Ng to use AI for making ships more fuel-efficient, showcasing proactive use of AI.

The video concludes with a call to action for individuals to learn, adapt, and harness the power of AI for societal benefit.

Transcripts

when I think of the biggest risk of AI I

think that the biggest risk is the

disruption to jobs in case you don't

know who that is and juning is the

globally recognized leader in AI the

founder of deeplearning.ai founder and

CEO of Landing AI General partner at AI

fund chairman and co-founder of corsera

and an adun professor at Stanford

University's computer science department

basically this guy knows his AI stuff

yes there will be lots of impact on jobs

as Andrew alluded to jobs that are

transformed jobs that are lost

artificial intelligence could replace

Millions the tool says AI will replace

4.8 million American jobs but by the end

of this video you will feel

inspired this is a paper from the

University of Pennsylvania in

collaboration with some people at open

Ai and it analyzes the impact of AI

automation on different jobs the

specific goal of this paper is to look

at the impacts of artificial

intelligence specifically large language

models on the US Labor Force whereas the

previous wave of automation the most

exposed jobs were often the lower wage

jobs you know we put robots into

factories with this current wave of

automation is actually the higherway

shops further to the right of the axis

that seems to have more of their task

exposed to AI ultimation let's take a

deeper dive into the paper they

basically take the jobs and a task

associated with the job and then get

both human Raiders as well as gp4 to

assess what level of automation is

affected so for example if you have

acute care nurses the work activities

they would do would include operating

diagnostic or therapeutic medical

instruments or equipment preparing

medical supplies or equipment to use so

they would give this information to

train human Raiders as well GPT 4 and

ask it how much will AI impact the

things that these people do before I

dive into these findings to really

appreciate what it all means we first

need to take a step back and look into

the past where similar things have have

occurred and what happened afterwards

every business no matter how large and

no matter how small will be on the

internet in the year 2000 these

groundbreaking Technologies they're

called general purpose Technologies and

they are characterized largely by four

things widespread proliferation of usage

continuous Improvement generation of

complimentary Innovations where people

take that technology and then build upon

it and massive disruption to both the

labor force and society as a whole let's

look as examples the printing press

before the printing press books articles

things like that they were not widely

available and they're considered very

precious so they depended on a small

number of people who would read and then

tell everybody else uh what it is that

was on the paper now with the invention

of the printing press and specifically

the glutenberg press in the mid-5th

century all of this changed the way that

it worked is that they would carve out

individual letters and numbers and being

able to rearrange them and dramatically

increase the speed at which things can

be printed this was a revolutionary

Discovery and suddenly people had access

to written text people started being

able to read things to understand things

to think things and this led to things

like the Renaissance the reformation and

countless revolutions so while this

technology enabled a lot of new

developments it also caused Great

displacements in the labor force

suddenly there was not really any need

for scribes and manuscript copiers there

wasn't any need for people who would

decorate these books and parchment and

vellum produc which is the skin of

animals that people would write on

because the printing press worked much

better on

paper before the steam engine was

invented people were born they would

Farm raise their animals get married and

do all those things and eventually die

all within a very small amount of space

and if you're lucky you might have some

hor drawn carriages or cows that were

able to carry you to different places

people were essentially bound to their

location but around around the Turning

of the century of the 18th century there

was a guy called Nicholas Joseph cogno

he built a steam powered contraption

that allowed him to move at 2 mph this

was very clunky and very

expensive then in 1863 there was a

Belgian inventor by the name of Ian

lenois who made the first combustion

engine that allowed him to travel 7 mph

wow people tinkered around with it and

finally it was James watt that perfected

the steam engine and this was

revolutionary because that was the

foundation that was needed to start the

Industrial Revolution and on the

transportation side this led to the

first gas-based engine which eventually

evolve into the cars that you see all

around you

everywhere but at the same time there

was massive disruption to the labor

force the Advent of steam powered

Machinery task like plowing and

threshing became more efficient so there

was less need for agricultureal workers

before the railway existed goods were

often transported via rivers and

different canals requiring boatmen and

watermen but now that there's a railway

there's no need for that anymore a lot

of Craftsmen and Artisans also lost

their jobs with the rise of factories

and mass production techniques so you

probably get the point now there's

something that's being invented that

dramatically changes how it is that

people live like all the things around

them and with that there's a disruption

to the current status quo including the

labor market with the invention of

electricity in the 18th and 19th century

there is no more need for so much candl

light people were able to stay up later

during the night and come up with more

things there's water and plumbing now

and refrigerator so there's no more need

for the Milkman or the ice cutter

perhaps you watching this has gone

through the time in which the internet

didn't exist You've Got Mail finally now

in the 21st century this new technology

this new innovation is artificial

intelligence and here are the jobs that

the research believe will be the most

highly impacted interpreters and

translators at around 76% exposure

survey researchers at 75% exposure poets

lyricists and creative writers around

68.8% animal scientists at

66.7% and public relations specialists

at

66.7% though this is on the conservative

side it looks like there's also going to

be a decline on web and digital

interface designers blockchain engineers

and mathematicians so traditionally

pretty high paying jobs they also found

that the importance of Science and

critical thinking skills are strongly

negatively associated with exposure so

basically saying that occupations

requiring these skills are less likely

to be impacted by current large language

models while on the other hand skills

like programming and writing um show a

strong positive association with

exposure so implying that these

occupations that involve these skills

are more susceptible to being impacted

by large language models so there you go

those are the predictions and why these

numbers are so big in terms of exposure

the reason is because um it's not just

the base technology of AI that's going

to be impacting these jobs and these

skill sets it's the fact that there's

going to be a lot of Technologies like

softwares and apps and stuff that are

built on top of these AI technologies

that will have massive impact in

specific domains so in the beginning of

this video I said that you will leave

this video feeling inspired so how can

you feel inspired knowing that there

will be loss of jobs

as you notice with these innovations

that came about there were so many

improvements in quality of life and new

things that were being formed from these

based Technologies these general purpose

Technologies overall our quality of life

has increased with each of these new

technologies that have come out and with

that new jobs that are formed with steam

engines that are invented there's now

Railway workers Engineers steamship

workers and transport and Logistics with

the of electricity electrical engineers

electricians power plant operators and

electrical tool manufacturers with the

computer and the internet software

Engineers data Engineers data scientists

data analysts Ecommerce cyber security

and my job right now content creator

with AI there will be and in fact there

already is a similar Trend prompt

engineer AI developer in fact the title

of Andrew ning's talk is opportunities

in AI Andrew talks about all the

different types of technologies that are

being developed on top of AI

traditionally speaking these

Technologies were so expensive and so

complex that only the biggest companies

were able to use them but there's a long

tale to this there's billion dooll

Industries but there's also like $100

million Industries $10 million $1

million Industries and now people are

empowered to develop for these

industries as well for example someone

might be running a small mom and pop

pizza shop they can have an AI power

tool that can take orders for them and

in a year they could be saving a few

thousand that might not sound like a lot

of money but to that store that's

significant now extrapolating that to

the pizza stores around the country

around the world that might not be a$1

billion industry but that could be a$

1010 million industry where now people

can improve their livelihoods I also

want to make a note that these

Transformations don't just happen by

themselves and it doesn't happen

overnight armar ra is a company that we

built with the former CEO of Tinder and

with my my team's expertise in Ai and

her expertise in relationships were're

able to build something pretty unique

you are someone that can build something

on top of the AI technology to improve

one or more of these industries a large

Japanese conglomerate called mitu they

came to me and they said hey Andrew you

should build the business to use AI to

make ships more fuel efficient be

someone that Embraces that change that

uses that change cuz that technology

it's not going to go away and that

change is going to happen whether you

like it or not so why not be proactive

learn adapt and harness its powers for

those interested in Humanities and maybe

politics be that person who is going to

be influencing policy makers on how

these Technologies should be used in the

end technology is just technology it is

not good and it is not evil it is up to

us to decide how it's going to be used

and there is so much opportunity to be

part of that all right I hope this video

is helpful please leave in the comments

what your thoughts are where you think

you could be providing value what you

want to learn how do you want to be part

of this conversation and I will see you

guys in next video or live stream