Citadel's Ken Griffin Speaks at Qatar Economic Forum

Bloomberg Television
14 May 202425:16

Summary

TLDRIn a comprehensive discussion, Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel and Citadel Securities, shares his insights on the evolving geopolitical landscape and its impact on global trade, investment, and macroeconomic trends. He addresses the current conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions between the U.S. and China, and their influence on state alliances and capital flow. Griffin expresses concern over the potential loss of technological advancements due to severed ties between nations. He also discusses risk management strategies in the face of increased geopolitical complexity and criticizes the Biden administration's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs on Chinese EVs and restrictions on LNG permits. Griffin further elaborates on his views on China, the importance of maintaining a constructive relationship, and the potential implications of U.S. foreign and economic policies under a hypothetical return of Donald Trump to the presidency. He also touches on the importance of aligning interests between money managers and sovereign wealth funds, the value of extraordinary talent in investment firms, and the strategic considerations for Citadel's potential expansion in the Middle East.

Takeaways

  • 🌐 Geopolitical tensions are reshaping global trade and investment, with conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and the U.S.-China relationship forcing states to realign their alliances.
  • 🔄 Traditional post-World War II alliances are regaining strength as nations seek stability amidst geopolitical shifts.
  • 💼 As an investor, deploying capital in markets of clear allies is perceived as the safest path, reflecting the reassertion of global institutions.
  • 📉 Concerns about the direction of the world due to the negative impact on global trade and the sharing of technological advancements.
  • 🚨 Increased tail risks in money management due to the rise in geopolitical complexity, requiring careful risk mitigation strategies.
  • 🤔 Criticism of the Biden administration's economic policies, particularly the imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs and reluctance to issue new LNG permits.
  • 💭 A belief that a Trump administration would project a stronger America and potentially stabilize the world amidst geopolitical challenges.
  • 🇺🇸 Assurance that a potential Trump presidency would not abandon Ukraine and would maintain a check on Russian territorial ambitions.
  • 💰 The importance of reducing federal spending and controlling inflation to provide economic security for American voters.
  • 🕊️ The potential for a sudden U.S. debt crisis, with the fear that it could escalate rapidly without warning, similar to the 1987 stock market crash.
  • 🏛️ Disappointment in the state of free speech and constructive debate on American university campuses, which are currently experiencing unrest and protests.

Q & A

  • What is Ken Griffin's perspective on the current geopolitical trends and their impact on global trade and investment?

    -Ken Griffin sees a shift from the perception of increasing global stability and integration towards a world divided by conflicts, which is forcing states to realign their trade and investment patterns. He mentions traditional alliances regaining strength and the reassertion of global institutions, particularly post-World War Two frameworks.

  • How does Ken Griffin view the role of the United States in the current geopolitical landscape?

    -Griffin believes that the United States is trying to pull its allies closer together, both in the Pacific and Europe, and that American money managers often view investing in clear allies' markets as the safest path.

  • What does Ken Griffin think about the investment environment in the Middle East, particularly with respect to China?

    -Griffin acknowledges that China is an important importer in the Middle East, making it a different investment story compared to the U.S. perspective. He sees China as investable due to the close ties formed between China and the region.

  • How does Ken Griffin feel about the direction the world is headed, considering the current geopolitical conflicts?

    -Griffin expresses concern about the direction of the world, emphasizing the negative consequences of severed ties between countries, particularly in terms of sharing technological advancements and economic gains.

  • What are Ken Griffin's thoughts on managing risks in the current geopolitical climate?

    -Griffin acknowledges that there are more tail risks that are harder to manage due to the rise in geopolitical complexity. He suggests that sizing exposure and looking for correlated payoffs are strategies to mitigate these risks in portfolio construction.

  • How does Ken Griffin perceive the Biden administration's economic policies, particularly regarding tariffs on Chinese EVs?

    -Griffin criticizes the Biden administration's policies as incoherent, especially the imposition of tariffs on Chinese EVs, which he sees as contrary to the goal of moving towards a zero-carbon world.

  • What is Ken Griffin's stance on the U.S.拒绝 (refusing) to provide new LNG permits?

    -Griffin questions the U.S. decision to refuse new Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) permits, as he believes access to LNG is crucial for a lower carbon footprint. He also notes the importance of the U.S. as an LNG exporter in partnership with Qatar.

  • How does Ken Griffin view China's role in the global economy and its relationship with the United States?

    -Griffin respects China for its economic achievements, particularly in lifting people out of poverty. However, he acknowledges the current muddled relationship between China and the U.S. and the need for trust and cooperation for mutual gain.

  • What is Ken Griffin's opinion on the protests and unrest on American university campuses?

    -Griffin is critical of the unrest, describing it as anarchy rather than free speech. He believes it detracts from the educational mission of universities and is a disappointment for the future leaders of the world.

  • How might U.S. foreign and defense policy change if Donald Trump were to return to the White House, according to Ken Griffin?

    -Griffin suggests that a Trump administration would project a stronger image of America globally, which could help stabilize the world in these trying times. He also believes that Trump would be less likely to abandon Ukraine and would be more focused on regulatory restraint and economic stability.

  • What is Ken Griffin's approach to supporting political candidates and his stance on the upcoming U.S. election?

    -Griffin has been a significant supporter of Republicans who stand for personal freedom, national security, and economic soundness. He has focused on supporting candidates who represent American values, including veterans. He has not donated to Trump's campaign yet and will wait to see Trump's VP choice before making a decision.

  • What advice does Ken Griffin have for sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf region regarding their investments?

    -Griffin advises that alignment of interests between the money manager and the sovereign wealth fund is crucial. He emphasizes the importance of finding a firm that will act in the best interest of the investor and suggests that transparency and low fees are less important than a firm's competitive advantage and culture.

Outlines

00:00

🌐 Geopolitical Shifts and Their Economic Impact

Ken Griffin discusses the significant changes in the geopolitical landscape, including conflicts in Ukraine, Gaza, and tensions between the U.S. and China. He notes the realignment of global trade and investment, and the strengthening of traditional post-World War Two alliances. Griffin expresses concern over the world's direction, emphasizing the benefits of global trade and information sharing. He also mentions the importance of navigating the macroeconomic landscape for his firm, Citadel, amidst these changes.

05:04

📉 Managing Tail Risks in a Complex World

Griffin acknowledges the increased difficulty in managing tail risks due to rising geopolitical complexity. He explains that Citadel focuses on mitigating these risks by carefully sizing exposure to strategies, sectors, or countries, and seeking correlated payoffs for protection against adverse events. The conversation also touches on the Biden administration's tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles, which Griffin criticizes as incoherent with the goal of a zero-carbon world. He also discusses the U.S.'s refusal to provide new LNG permits and its impact on global carbon reduction efforts.

10:06

🤝 The Importance of U.S.-China Relations

Griffin shares his respectful view of China's economic achievements, particularly in lifting people out of poverty and becoming a leader in various technologies. He expresses concern over the current muddled U.S.-China relationship and its impact on trust and technological sharing. He suggests that both nations could take steps to reduce tensions and that a Cold War-like scenario would escalate these issues. Griffin also addresses the role of Qatar in peace talks and the importance of maintaining a constructive dialogue on university campuses.

15:07

🇺🇸 Potential Changes with a Trump Presidency

The discussion turns to the potential impact of a Trump presidency on foreign and defense policy, with Griffin suggesting a stronger global perception of America. He contrasts the Biden administration's thoughtful policies with a lack of perceived strength. Griffin believes Trump's unpredictability could be advantageous in dealing with adversaries. He also addresses concerns over aid to Ukraine and the potential for Trump to find a peaceful resolution involving Putin and the Ukrainian leadership.

20:08

💵 Economic Policy and the Risks of Inflation

Griffin expresses his concerns over the lack of commitment from both the Trump and Biden administrations to reduce federal spending. He criticizes the Biden administration's handling of the economy, particularly the rise in inflation due to increased government spending and intervention. He suggests that a Trump administration would be more cautious about regulatory overreach and the role of government in the economy. Griffin also discusses the potential catalyst for an American debt crisis and the importance of addressing inflation to secure economic stability.

💰 Political Donations and Strategies for Sovereign Wealth Funds

Griffin talks about his political donations, focusing on supporting Republicans who stand for personal freedom, national security, and economic soundness. He has not donated to Trump's campaign but is considering it based on the VP pick. He advises sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf region to prioritize alignment of interests with money managers over superficial factors like fees. Griffin emphasizes the importance of finding a money manager with a competitive advantage and a culture of co-investment. He also discusses Citadel's approach to talent and its potential expansion in the Middle East.

Mindmap

Keywords

💡Geopolitics

Geopolitics refers to the study of the effects of geography (human and physical) on international politics and international relations. In the video, it is a central theme as the discussion revolves around how current geopolitical conflicts, such as the war in Ukraine and tensions between the U.S. and China, are impacting global trade and investment, reshaping the macroeconomic landscape.

💡Global Trade

Global trade involves the exchange of goods and services across international borders. The script discusses how the conflicts and geopolitical tensions are leading to a realigning of global trade patterns, with states being forced to pick sides and reevaluate their trade relationships.

💡Investment

Investment in this context refers to the allocation of money in expectation of some benefit in the future. The video speaks to how geopolitical trends are influencing investment decisions, with capital being directed towards markets of clear allies and the concept of 'investable' changing based on geopolitical relationships.

💡Alliances

Alliances are associations of countries or parties formed for mutual benefit or to achieve some common aim. The script mentions the strengthening of traditional post-World War Two alliances and the reassertion of global institutions, which are key in the current geopolitical climate.

💡Tariffs

Tariffs are taxes imposed on goods crossing international borders. The discussion in the video touches on the new tariffs levied by the Biden administration on Chinese imports, including electric vehicles, as part of a broader critique of economic policy coherence.

💡Economic Policy

Economic policy refers to the actions and strategies implemented by governments to monitor and influence a country's economic performance. The video script critiques the incoherence of the Biden administration's economic policies and contrasts them with potential approaches under a different administration.

💡Inflation

Inflation is the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. The script addresses the issue of inflation being out of control under the current administration, causing economic frustration among voters.

💡Deficit Spending

Deficit spending occurs when a government's expenditures exceed its revenues, creating a budget deficit. The video discusses concerns over the U.S. spending more than it generates in tax revenue and the potential catastrophic consequences if this deficit spending isn't controlled.

💡Sovereign Wealth Funds

Sovereign wealth funds are state-owned investment funds that invest in real and financial assets both domestically and abroad. The video advises these funds to focus on aligning interests with money managers and ensuring that the managers act in the best interest of the fund.

💡Talent Acquisition

Talent acquisition refers to the process of attracting, interviewing, hiring, and onboarding new employees. The video emphasizes the importance of attracting and retaining talent, particularly in the context of Citadel's expansion strategy and the need for integrated teams.

💡Regulatory Overreach

Regulatory overreach occurs when a government imposes excessive or overly restrictive regulations that may hinder economic activity or innovation. The script suggests that a Trump administration would be less inclined towards regulatory overreach, which could positively impact the U.S. economy.

Highlights

Ken Griffin discusses the evolution of geopolitical trends and their impact on global trade and investment.

Griffin notes the reassertion of post-World War Two alliances and the tightening of traditional relationships among nations.

He expresses concern over the direction of the world, emphasizing the benefits of global trade and information sharing.

Griffin acknowledges the increased difficulty in managing tail risks due to rising geopolitical complexity.

He criticizes the Biden administration's economic policies, particularly the tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles.

Griffin highlights the importance of the United States as an LNG exporter and its potential for a win-win dynamic with Qatar.

He respects China's economic achievements but points out the current muddled relationship between the U.S. and China.

Griffin is worried about the impact of campus protests on the perception of America in the Gulf region and globally.

He anticipates a stronger global perception of America if Donald Trump returns to the White House.

Griffin believes that President Trump would not abandon Ukraine and would check Russian territorial ambitions.

He expresses concerns about the lack of control over inflation and the expansion of government under the Biden administration.

Griffin warns of a potential American debt crisis, likening it to the crash of 1987 with little warning.

As a significant supporter of Republicans, Griffin focuses on backing candidates who represent American values and personal freedom.

He has not donated to Donald Trump's campaign and is waiting to see Trump's VP pick before making a decision.

Griffin advises sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf to prioritize alignment of interests with money managers over fees or superficial transparency.

Citadel's strategy for expansion in the Middle East is focused on attracting and retaining extraordinary talent, both domestic and international.

Griffin emphasizes the importance of integrated teams for success in the markets, rather than remote working setups.

Transcripts

play00:00

Ken Griffin, thank you so much for joining us here in Doha.

play00:03

It is great to be here today. We have a lot to talk about, as usual,

play00:06

folks. I have been fortunate enough to have a

play00:10

long standing relationship with Ken and have had the opportunity to interview

play00:15

him many times. I think of this as

play00:21

an evolution in so many ways, kind of things that we've touched on in the

play00:25

past. One of those things, of course, is

play00:28

geopolitics, the subject of a graceful way to describe aging and evolution.

play00:38

Geopolitics is a subject that has come up already many times on this stage,

play00:41

Ken. The world is, you know, is divided by

play00:45

conflicts. We have hot wars in Ukraine and Gaza and

play00:48

a Cold war, you might say, between the United States and China.

play00:51

And increasingly, these conflicts are forcing states to pick sides, and thus

play00:59

they're realigning global trade and investment.

play01:02

What we'd like here, Ken, is your perspective on the trajectory of these

play01:08

geopolitical trends. And your ideas as to how they're shaping

play01:14

or perhaps reshaping the macroeconomic landscape you have to navigate at your

play01:19

firm, Citadel and Citadel Securities. So that's a great question because it

play01:24

was just a few years ago. That I think most of us view the world

play01:29

is heading towards geopolitical stability, a better place, in other

play01:33

words. Yeah.

play01:34

Yes. And a more integrated market, both

play01:36

financial flows and goods flows, the services and even the integration of

play01:41

labour markets. And now with both the war in Europe.

play01:47

The tension between the United States and China.

play01:50

And then in a different way what's unfolding in the Middle East between

play01:54

Israel. And Hamas.

play01:59

It's very clear we live in a different world than we had all experienced and

play02:03

fantasized about just a few years ago. Now.

play02:08

The upshot of this is that the traditional alliances post-World War Two

play02:14

are regaining strength. You see the native countries coming

play02:17

together more tightly. You see the United States trying to pull

play02:22

its allies closer together, whether it's Australia and in the Pacific or our

play02:29

allies in Europe. So there is a there is definitely a a

play02:34

reassertion of the importance of global institutions and in particular the

play02:39

post-World War two frameworks that are once again at play.

play02:43

As an investor, it's it's an interesting point in time because if you are in the

play02:48

United States, there's a sense that deploying capital in the markets of our

play02:53

of our clear allies is the safest path to go.

play02:58

In fact, you'll often hear American money managers, for example, say that

play03:01

China's on investible because of the tension between the United States and

play03:06

China. That's unclear display.

play03:09

And yet, if you're here in the Middle East, where China is an important

play03:13

importer of of oil and other products from across the region, it's a very

play03:20

different story. China is clearly investable because of

play03:23

the closeness formed between China in this part of the world.

play03:26

So you do see both the re strengthening of historic relationships, new ties

play03:33

being built, and capital follows the flows of these geopolitical

play03:38

arrangements. Are you worried about the direction the

play03:41

world is headed? Of course I am.

play03:45

And I'm willing to bet that you are also.

play03:48

This is not where we want to see. The world had for just a number of

play03:51

obvious reasons. I mean, first of all, global trade,

play03:55

which had adverse consequences that we are that are we're learning about to

play04:00

this day still unleashed an enormous amount of gain for humanity.

play04:07

And with the rise of global trade became the rise of information sharing around

play04:12

the world, which rapidly accelerated. The trajectory of mankind.

play04:18

I mean, of note, the Chinese, for example, are leaders in solar.

play04:22

They're leaders in EVs. They're leaders in a number of emerging

play04:26

technologies and a world which is more splintered.

play04:29

We'll see the gains that the Chinese have achieved in these important areas

play04:34

not shared by the Western countries. And conversely, the United States is a

play04:40

clear leader in A.I., along with a number of the European countries.

play04:44

And those gains will not be shared with China and the countries in its sphere of

play04:50

influence. So it's a very clear cut loss for all of

play04:55

humanity when we have the severing of ties between our countries on a

play04:59

practical level. Is it getting harder to manage the risks

play05:03

you face? I think that one has to be aware that

play05:12

there are more tail risks that are harder to ultimately manage, and that

play05:17

goes with this this rise in geopolitical complexity.

play05:21

So I think that's that's certainly true that there are just larger tales today

play05:26

that didn't exist or we didn't perceive them to exist seven or eight or ten

play05:31

years ago. So that's that is intrinsic in money

play05:33

management today. And that's something we think about each

play05:35

and every day at Citadel is how do we mitigate the tail risks in this world?

play05:40

How do you mitigate the tail risks? Well, part of its sizing.

play05:43

So part of it is how much exposure you have to a strategy or to a particular

play05:48

sector of the economy or to a particular country.

play05:50

That's that is the go to playbook for managing your tails is just what's the

play05:55

most you're willing to have exposed to a possible adverse event.

play06:00

And then the other strategy is to look for correlated payoffs that will protect

play06:03

you in the event that the tail scenario occurs.

play06:06

So those are two things that you do in your portfolio construction to manage

play06:10

against the tail risk in this environment.

play06:12

Ken, moments ago you mentioned China and EVs.

play06:17

As it happens today, the Biden administration is levying sweeping new

play06:21

tariffs on Chinese imports, including on electric vehicles.

play06:25

How does that change the picture? Well, it's sort of a continuation of the

play06:29

incoherent economic policies of the Biden administration.

play06:33

We've seen this giant push towards green energy over the course of the last

play06:38

several years, and at the same time, a set of policies that run completely

play06:43

contrary to the stated goal of trying to head towards a zero carbon world and

play06:49

placing enormous tariffs on Chinese EVs, which are low cost, high quality of

play06:55

great value to American consumers, is yet another part of the incoherent Biden

play07:00

economic strategy. The other part of the strategy is I

play07:03

scratch my head about is the US refusing to provide new LNG permits.

play07:11

Right. If you want the world to head towards a

play07:12

lower carbon footprint and move away from coal.

play07:16

Access to LNG is a really important part of the equation.

play07:19

And yet the United States is refusing to permit new facilities in the foreseeable

play07:23

future and also to sell LNG to countries with which the United States doesn't

play07:28

have a free trade agreement. That's a part of the equation.

play07:31

Also. That said, the United States, amazingly,

play07:35

is a bigger LNG exporter than Qatar. We're neck and neck.

play07:40

We're neck and neck. And it's very important to understand

play07:44

that if you want a country to base its economy on natural gas, they're going to

play07:49

want to suppliers. It's not a win lose dynamic between the

play07:54

United States and Qatar. It's a win win.

play07:57

If you look at any good that is required on an existential basis.

play08:03

You're going to want dual source supply and the rise of the United States as a

play08:07

major LNG exporter only strengthens the position.

play08:12

Of this region of the world in providing natural gas to other countries.

play08:17

Going back to China for a moment. We've talked about China in the past.

play08:20

You have what I would call a constructive view of China, certainly

play08:25

more constructive than many people with whom I have spoken.

play08:29

There is, however, strong hostility to China among both Republicans and

play08:34

Democrats. So how would you explain the way you

play08:38

look at the the opportunity and the problem that China presents,

play08:43

particularly to the United States? So that's that's a that's a treacherous

play08:47

question to have to answer. Let's let's take a huge step back.

play08:53

I think that my view towards China is rooted in respect.

play08:59

It is rooted in the respect of a country that has pulled more people out of

play09:02

poverty in the last 40 years than any than any country in the history of the

play09:08

world. It's a remarkable economic achievement

play09:12

that they've that they have unleashed in China.

play09:15

And it was an economic achievement that the United States firmly supported.

play09:20

We believed in America that the rise of a free market economy would lead to the

play09:26

rise of a liberal democracy. It was an explicit calculation that

play09:32

happened in D.C. that didn't actually happen to happen in

play09:36

reality. So it's it's important to recognize that

play09:40

this was the goal of the United States, was to see the economic rise of China,

play09:45

hoping that we're pushing towards a liberal democracy.

play09:48

It didn't happen. The economy rose did not become a

play09:51

liberal democracy. Having said that, today, China is a

play09:56

powerhouse in research and development and in a broad number of fields, fields

play10:01

that are very important to the future of all of us around the world.

play10:05

And so long as we're able to maintain a constructive relationship and we can

play10:10

share the best technologies that our two countries and all the countries around

play10:14

the world develop and build, there's an opportunity for gain.

play10:19

Right now, we have in some sense a very muddled relationship, and it's almost as

play10:24

if we're trying to maximize the opportunities for mutual pain.

play10:28

And that's a that's a difficult place to be.

play10:31

It makes the Chinese wary of trusting the United States.

play10:34

It makes the United States wary of trusting China.

play10:36

And there's just a lot lost in that equation.

play10:39

It would make sense if what the United States wants to do is make an enemy of

play10:44

China. But that's not clear.

play10:46

Well, you know, I don't want to make the U.S.

play10:49

only is going after China. It's a two way street.

play10:52

I mean, the Chinese, for example, supporting Russia's ability to wage war

play10:55

in Ukraine doesn't play well in the United States of America.

play11:00

So there's room for both countries to take definitive acts to just turn the

play11:04

temperature down. And what if it's a Cold War?

play11:07

That's to turn the temperature up. I'm not sure which way you go, but

play11:11

but to improve the relationship and the dynamic between our two countries

play11:16

can Qatar is playing an instrumental role in the peace talks or the effort to

play11:24

create peace, as it were, between the Israelis and the Palestinians, and to

play11:28

resolve the situation in Gaza? And with respect to Hamas.

play11:32

You've been outspoken about the pro-Palestinian protests back in the

play11:35

United States. They've roiled university campuses.

play11:38

You've been particularly critical of your alma mater, Harvard.

play11:42

Here's my question to you. When people here in the Gulf region and

play11:46

across the globe, for that matter, see the chaos at Harvard or Columbia or USC

play11:53

or M.I.T. and police in combat gear moving to

play11:56

clear encampments, how do you think that shapes their view of America?

play12:01

Not well. Not well.

play12:04

And what is lost is that what's happening on campus is not it's not free

play12:10

speech. It's anarchy.

play12:11

You know, at Columbia, when they when they storm a building, they vandalize a

play12:15

building. They're destroying property.

play12:18

And then they ask for humanitarian aid, which is the greatest of all ironies.

play12:22

It's it's just the wrong it is the wrong dynamic that we're seeing take place on

play12:27

American campuses. These are students most these students

play12:30

on campuses are trying to learn. They're trying to have an education.

play12:34

And the university should be really trying to encourage a constructive

play12:39

debate between the students of different backgrounds, whether they're from the

play12:42

Middle East, whether they're of Jewish origin.

play12:45

It's really important that the generation that will be the generation

play12:49

that runs the world in 40 years. Tries to learn from this horrible moment

play12:54

in history. And we're not fostering that environment

play12:57

on campuses today. And it's really it's a huge, huge

play13:01

disappointment that so much of what we see on campus.

play13:04

You've seen the video footage of the kids interviewed.

play13:06

Why are you here? What are you protesting about?

play13:09

Offer They can't even answer basic questions about what's happening in the

play13:13

region and why it's taking place. Can people here and I suspect those

play13:18

watching us around the world are eager for your insights into what might happen

play13:24

during and after the U.S. election.

play13:27

How might U.S. foreign policy and defense policy change

play13:31

if Donald Trump were to return to the White House?

play13:35

So if President Trump returns to the White House, I think you'll see a global

play13:39

perception of a stronger America. Now, the Biden administration's foreign

play13:45

policies, the actual policies are, generally speaking, thoughtful.

play13:50

But to be blunt, America does not does not does not exude credibility or

play13:57

strength in its actions around the world today.

play14:01

Our our positioning does not match the thoughtfulness of our policies.

play14:05

That's a very difficult place to be in a world which has the geopolitical

play14:10

crosscurrents that we spoke about earlier.

play14:12

And it means that those who are willing to push to see how far you can push

play14:17

America are willing to push harder than we want to see happening.

play14:22

And I think that that anybody who knows President Trump knows that is not

play14:26

somebody you just push to see what's going to happen.

play14:29

That's the wrong strategy with President Trump.

play14:32

And so I believe that President Trump will have very good people in foreign

play14:37

policy and in the Department of Defense. But I think he will exude a level of

play14:42

strength that will help to stabilize the world in this very, very trying times.

play14:48

There has been flagging support for aid to Ukraine and the Republican Party with

play14:53

Donald Trump abandoned Ukraine. No, he will not.

play14:56

You're certain of that? Well, this goes back to my earlier

play15:01

statement. You could never be certain about

play15:03

President Trump. And that's part of the reason that he is

play15:07

more intimidating to our adversaries. You never know exactly what the response

play15:11

is going to be. But knowing a number of people that he's

play15:14

close to and having actually brought this topic up, I think that President

play15:18

Trump feels he can find an off ramp towards peace by reaching across to

play15:23

Putin and to the Ukrainian leadership. I believe he knows it's important to

play15:29

American interests that we do not abandon the Ukrainian people at this

play15:33

very difficult moment and that we keep Russians territorial ambitions in check.

play15:39

And a strong pushback against Putin will be part of the equation, if need be, to

play15:46

secure the peace in Ukraine. What do you think he'll do with economic

play15:50

policy? That's difficult to know.

play15:55

So neither administration gives me comfort in terms of a willingness to

play16:00

reduce federal spending. But I have no doubt that a Trump

play16:06

administration would be far less oriented towards regulatory overreach

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and far more thoughtful about the role of U.S.

play16:18

government in the day to day U.S. economy.

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You know, one of the reasons that American voters are so unhappy right now

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is inflation is out of control and inflation is out of control because of

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the expanse of government under the Biden administration.

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The rate of spending and the degree of intervention in the economy, it's

play16:37

causing energy prices to be higher. It's causing the cost of manufacturing

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to be higher. It's impacting every part of the economy

play16:45

in a way that the American voters are frustrated about.

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President Biden doesn't understand. You need to break the back of inflation

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to give people a sense of economic security.

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We have talked in the past about America's tendency, so we say, to spend

play17:06

more money than it generates in tax revenue.

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And you have warned can of some catastrophic consequences if

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deficit spending isn't brought under control.

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What is the catalyst for an American debt crisis going to be?

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So I don't know what that moment will be when there is an auction that goes awry

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or when the markets become dislocated. Financial markets, generally speaking,

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work very well until they catastrophically come off the rails.

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You don't necessarily get a lot of warning that there's about to be a big

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event. The crash of 87 is a great case study.

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You know, that day I woke up. I was I was out in my dorm room trading

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then. And the stories on the other day were

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about a small skirmish in the Middle East of of, frankly, no consequence and

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the health of first Lady Nancy Reagan.

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And yet we end end of that day with the stock market down 20 some percent and a

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number of American institutions literally on life support or near death

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happened in one day. One day.

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There was no big story that morning that would make you think that that day might

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have been the end of the U.S. capital markets as we knew them.

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There was no warning. And so I worry that the debt crisis may

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have a similar construct, that they'll simply be a day where a major auction

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fails. And then you see a panic start to brew

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in the Treasury market. And the question will be, will be how

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fast will the Fed intervene? What panic will that do is because

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government intervention under duress often just creates more panic.

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And then do we see a flood of treasuries coming back into the market from holders

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around the world? It's a frightening prospect.

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It is. Back to politics for a moment.

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You've been a prominent donor.

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I would say to Republican candidates, I'd like to know, how are you going to

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spend your money? How are you already spending your money

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ahead of the election in November? So I have been a significant supporter

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of Republicans that stand for personal freedom.

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National security and economic soundness of the United States.

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That has been a big focus of mine in this primary election or this primary

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cycle. I want to see people in the House and in

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the Senate that represent the best of American values and backgrounds that

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prepare one to serve in public service. In the last election cycle, I supported

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a number of people who were veterans, too, and who are now serving our country

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in the House, and they do it with the pride that our country deserves, and

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they do it with the integrity that our country needs.

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So I've been very focused on finding candidates who I think represent the

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best of American values to be part of the future of the Republican Party.

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People probably want to know, have you donated to Donald Trump's campaign,

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either directly or indirectly, to a PAC or a super PAC?

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I have not. Will you?

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I'm going to wait to see how he picks as his VP candidate.

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Is there anyone whom you'd like to see him pick as his VP candidate?

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I you know, I don't. This is again, like poking the bear.

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Not sure which way my recommendation goes in terms of helping that person's

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prospects. I think that's

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wise position to take. Before we finish, can.

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This region is blessed with resource wealth and as a result, sovereign

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wealth. So much so that pretty much every major

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asset manager in the West sees the Gulf as something of a honeypot and is trying

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to raise money here. As someone who isn't raising money here,

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how would you advise the sovereign wealth funds in the Gulf region to

play20:54

maximize their negotiating leverage? So either I'm going to be excommunicated

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from this circle of my fellow money managers or never invited to come back

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to the Middle East again. Is that is that the position you're

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putting me in? So so look, here's here's what I think

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is important to think about. I think alignment between the interests

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of the money manager and the sovereign wealth fund are very important.

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And I think it's more important to have your money entrusted with a firm that is

play21:27

going to act continuously in your best interest as an investor than it is to

play21:31

try to pick somebody who simply has the lowest fees or some other superficial

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demarcation of being open and transparent.

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I mean, let's be clear. Your money managers who have really

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important intellectual property aren't going to be unduly transparent.

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They're trying to protect their very intellectual property that they'll share

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the benefits with with you of with with the client.

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Simply put, Coca-Cola doesn't publish its recipe on the Web.

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So I think it's very important when you find a money manager, you're really

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asking what's their competitive advantage?

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What's their culture? How aligned are they with me?

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And in both in the good moments and the bad moments, are they going to put

play22:20

themselves in the shoes of their clients and make the right decision by their

play22:24

clients? You know what?

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Sit here. I take great pride that that almost over

play22:29

20% capital in our hedge funds is the capital, the partners, the team members

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at Citadel. We wake up every single day as

play22:38

co-investors with our capital providers, and I think that symbolizes what I would

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think about looking for if I were a member of the sovereign wealth community

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here in the Middle East. One last thing.

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Among the many distinctive qualities, the Citadel is

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just by the way, when you're going to go pick a brain

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search, do you find the doctor at the lowest fee?

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That's not what I would do now. All right.

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So you want to find somebody who actually has pricing power because other

play23:12

people perceive them to be good. It says something.

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There's something to be said for that. I was just going to say, because I think

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it would certainly interest people in this room and elsewhere in this part of

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the world. One of the things that Citadel is known

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for is how seriously you and your colleagues take the search for

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extraordinary talent. A number of investment firms have opened

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offices in this part of the world, whether it's in Doha, whether it's in

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Abu Dhabi, in Dubai, for example, or Riyadh.

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Have you thought about expanding here? Well, we actually just recently did an

play23:42

analysis of our competitors footprints in a number of these cities as we tried

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to think about what is our strategy here in the Middle East.

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And you and you landed on the right issue.

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It's about talent. And when we think about our Middle East

play23:57

strategy, we're going to think about where are we going to draw the greatest

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amount of talent, both from the domestic country and from the international

play24:05

community. Too often, countries try to attract

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talent by having very attractive tax attributes that tends to draw in a

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handful of senior PMS but doesn't draw in the analysts.

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The associates who do the day to day work that's required to be successful in

play24:24

the markets. One of the reasons that I think Seattle

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has been so successful is the intense collaboration that we have within our

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four walls. A PM working side by side with an

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analyst with an associate working through a problem.

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Having a PM located in a low tax jurisdiction on Zoom intimately with a

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team back in London. That's not a winning formula.

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So when we think about where we're going to be in the Middle East in terms of our

play24:51

footprint for human capital, it's going to be about a holistic solution where

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we've got people who are in the region integrated tightly with PMS who are

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here. The whole team is here and successful as

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a team. It explains a lot.

play25:06

Ken, thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, please join me in

play25:09

thanking Ken Griffin. Thank you.

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