Is U.S. Debt Problem Imploding? Lyn Alden On 'Fiscal Spiral', 2024's Best Assets

Summary

In this insightful discussion, Lyn Alden, founder of Linn Alden Investment Strategy, shares her views on the current market trends and asset classes for 2024. Alden expresses bullish sentiments on Bitcoin, gold, and energy, citing fiscal dominance and its impact on asset valuations. She also discusses the potential for inflation, the role of the Federal Reserve, and the structural shifts in the financial system brought about by cryptocurrencies. Alden's perspectives offer a nuanced understanding of the economic landscape and strategic investment insights.

Takeaways

• 📈 The guest, Lyn Alden, is bullish on bitcoin, gold, and energy for the remainder of 2024 due to the fiscal backdrop and its impact on asset classes.
• 💹 Large cap growth equities may have valuation concerns, while energy, gold, and bitcoin do not seem overvalued and present attractive opportunities.
• 🌐 The rise in cryptocurrency hacking incidents highlights the importance of digital privacy and security, which is a key theme in the episode's sponsor segment on NordVPN.
• 📉 Current market action shows stocks, gold, and Bitcoin moving up, but there are concerns about overextension of prices and potential economic slowdowns.
• 🔄 The guest expects sector-specific rotations within the market, with some areas showing weakness while others recover, influenced by the purchasing managers' index (PMI).
• 🏦 Commercial real estate is considered a risky sector to invest in due to the ongoing challenges and potential losses in the market.
• 🌊 The concept of 'fiscal dominance' is introduced, where fiscal policies have a larger impact on the economy than monetary policies, affecting inflation and investment strategies.
• 🔄 The Federal Reserve's response to inflation is expected to be limited due to high public debt, potentially leading to a focus on curve steepening rather than aggressive rate hikes.
• 💡 The guest's book, 'Broken Money', discusses the structural changes in the monetary system, the impact of technology on finance, and the concept of fiscal dominance.
• 🌐 The guest's website, Linn Alden Investment Strategy, offers resources and research for investors looking to understand and navigate the current financial landscape.

Q & A

What is the primary reason for assets continuing to surprise to the upside according to Lyn Alden?

The primary reason for assets continuing to surprise to the upside is the fiscal backdrop. In an environment with uncontrolled fiscal spending, assets denominated in a weakening currency perform well in local currency terms, even if they may not be doing great in real terms.

Which asset classes is Lyn Alden most bullish on for the remainder of 2024?

Lyn Alden is most bullish on Bitcoin, gold, and energy for the remainder of 2024. These assets provide a good focus area due to their potential for growth and their role as alternatives to other investments like tech stocks and treasury bonds.

What are Lyn Alden's thoughts on the future of gold, Bitcoin, and stocks for the remainder of 2024 and into next year?

Lyn Alden expects gold, Bitcoin, and certain stocks, particularly in the energy sector, to perform well for the remainder of 2024 and into the next year. She believes these assets will continue to be attractive due to their potential for growth and their ability to act as alternatives to more crowded or overvalued assets.

Why does Lyn Alden believe inflation may not come down to the Fed's 2% target anytime soon?

Lyn Alden believes inflation may not come down to the Fed's 2% target anytime soon due to the current environment of fiscal dominance, where fiscal policies have a more significant impact on the economy than monetary policies. This dynamic makes it difficult for the Fed to control inflation effectively, especially when fiscal deficits are contributing to the inflationary pressure.

How does Lyn Alden think the Fed will respond to the new inflationary dynamic?

Lyn Alden thinks the Fed might focus on managing expectations and maintaining relatively high interest rates rather than aggressively raising them further. She suggests that the Fed may also try to target curve steepening as a way to moderate government borrowing costs while keeping higher interest rate pressures on the private sector.

What does Lyn Alden mean by 'fiscal dominance' and why is it important?

Fiscal dominance refers to a situation where fiscal policies, such as taxation and government spending, have a more significant impact on the economy than monetary policies like interest rates. It is important because it changes the effectiveness of central bank tools in controlling inflation and can lead to a new era of economic dynamics, where traditional monetary responses may not be as effective.

What is Lyn Alden's view on the current market action for stocks, gold, and Bitcoin?

Lyn Alden has observed that stocks, gold, and Bitcoin have all moved up and she believes that this is largely due to the fiscal backdrop and improving liquidity. She also notes that while these assets have shown resilience, they may still experience periods of overbought conditions and subsequent consolidation.

How does Lyn Alden perceive the valuation concerns for various assets?

Lyn Alden expresses valuation concerns for large-cap growth equities, as they are highly priced relative to their fundamentals. However, she does not have valuation concerns for energy, gold, and Bitcoin, although she advises watching out for periods of euphorically overbought conditions.

What are the implications of the fiscal spending as discussed by Lyn Alden?

According to Lyn Alden, the implications of the fiscal spending include a continued increase in fiscal deficits, a potential slow-motion train wreck in commercial real estate, and an environment where certain investments become less attractive due to the dominance of fiscal policies. This also impacts the overall investment strategy and the attractiveness of various asset classes.

What does Lyn Alden suggest about the sector-specific nature of the market?

Lyn Alden suggests that the market's performance is very sector-specific. While some sectors like tech and services have been recovering, others like commercial real estate have been in a depression-like state. She expects a rotation where some of the assets that have been doing well may show weakness, while those that have already gone through a down cycle could recover.

How does Lyn Alden view the role of energy in the future economy?

Lyn Alden views energy as a critical component of the future economy. She anticipates increasing demand for energy due to technological advancements and the development of data centers. Additionally, she believes that energy supply will remain relatively constrained, leading to a potential rise in energy prices and making energy stocks an attractive investment.

Outlines

00:00

📈 Market Analysis and Asset Outlook

The paragraph discusses the reasons behind the surprising upside performance of certain assets in the context of a weak fiscal backdrop. It highlights the challenges of shorting assets in an emerging market with a weak local currency, which is rapidly increasing in supply. The speaker, Lyn Alden, shares her bullish views on various asset classes for the remainder of 2024 and beyond, including gold, Bitcoin, and energy stocks. She also delves into the potential for inflation to remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target and how the Fed might respond to new inflationary dynamics. The importance of fiscal dominance in the current economic climate is emphasized, along with the implications of substantial government spending.

05:00

🌐 Global Economic Sectors and Fiscal Policies

This paragraph examines the purchasing managers' index (PMI) and its implications for various industries, noting that certain sectors have experienced recession-like conditions. Lyn Alden discusses the contrasting performance of different business areas, such as commercial real estate and tech sectors, and predicts a sector-specific rotation in the market. She also addresses the concept of risk-on sentiment and fiscal dominance, suggesting that the perception of investable areas may broaden, leading to shifts in market focus.

10:01

📊 Inflation Trends and Central Bank Policies

The discussion in this paragraph centers around the stabilization of inflation and the potential for it to re-accelerate, with a focus on the role of energy markets. Lyn Alden shares her view that the decade will be more inflationary than the previous one, with inflation coming in waves. She also talks about the Federal Reserve's challenge in managing inflation in the context of fiscal dominance, where fiscal policies have a more significant impact on the economy than monetary policies. The conversation touches on the Fed's likely response to inflation stabilization and the implications for interest rates and bond markets.

15:01

💰 Fiscal Spending and its Macroeconomic Effects

This paragraph explores the concept of fiscal dominance in depth, explaining its impact on the economy and the limitations it places on central banks' ability to control inflation. Lyn Alden discusses the structural shift in the economy due to high public debt and fiscal deficits, and how this has led to a new era of fiscal influence. The conversation also covers the potential consequences of continued fiscal spending and the challenges of managing fiscal policy in a financialized economy with high public debt.

20:03

📈 The Impact of Deficits on Asset Classes

The paragraph examines the relationship between government spending, deficits, and their effects on various asset classes. Lyn Alden argues that while large deficits have historically boosted stock markets, the sustainability of this trend is questioned due to the increasing interest expenses associated with high public debt. She also discusses the potential for inflation to manifest in asset prices and the importance of investing in assets that can provide a positive carry, such as energy stocks, in the face of uncertain inflation outcomes.

25:05

🌟 Energy Sector Outlook and AI's Role

In this paragraph, the focus is on the energy sector, with Lyn Alden expressing a bullish outlook due to increasing demand and constrained supply. She highlights the lack of investment in new production and the potential for energy prices to rise. The discussion also touches on the energy-intensive nature of technological advancements like AI and data centers, and the need for increased electrical grid capacity. Lyn Alden sees energy stocks as attractive investments, given their strong balance sheets and shareholder-friendly policies.

30:05

💡 Bitcoin's Role in the Energy Market

This paragraph explores the role of Bitcoin mining in the energy market, particularly its ability to absorb stranded energy and provide flexibility in times of supply and demand fluctuations. Lyn Alden discusses the potential for Bitcoin to become an embedded part of the grid, utilizing excess energy that would otherwise be wasted. The conversation also touches on the World Bank's estimates of natural gas flaring and methane leaks, highlighting the significant amount of untapped energy that could be used for Bitcoin mining.

35:05

📈 Performance of Bitcoin, Gold, and Stocks

The paragraph discusses the performance of Bitcoin, gold, and stocks in relation to fiscal policies and liquidity. Lyn Alden explains that while these assets have been rising, the reasons for their performance are not identical but are influenced by fiscal issues and liquidity. She notes that gold has historically been negatively correlated with real interest rates, but the recent divergence suggests a change in this dynamic. The conversation also includes the impact of Bitcoin ETFs on the price of Bitcoin and the anticipation of the having on the market.

40:05

📖 Lyn Alden's Book: Broken Money

In this final paragraph, Lyn Alden discusses her book, 'Broken Money,' which focuses on the themes of fiscal dominance and the structural changes brought by Bitcoin and stablecoins to the monetary system. The book examines the historical context of money and the evolution of financial systems, particularly the shift from slow transactions and settlements to a modern era of fast transactions and settlements. Lyn Alden emphasizes the long-term implications of these technologies on the global financial landscape and the potential for reduced reliance on middlemen in finance.

Keywords

💡Fiscal Backdrop

The fiscal backdrop refers to the government's financial policies and their impact on the economy. In the video, it is mentioned as a significant factor influencing asset performance, particularly in emerging markets where currency weakness can lead to headwinds for shorting assets.

💡Asset Classes

Asset classes are categories of investments that are grouped based on their characteristics, such as stocks, bonds, commodities, and real estate. In the video, the guest, Lyn Alden, shares which asset classes she is most bullish on for the remainder of 2024, including Bitcoin, gold, and energy stocks.

💡Inflation

Inflation refers to the rate at which the general level of prices for goods and services is rising, and subsequently, purchasing power is falling. In the video, the discussion around inflation centers on whether it will come down to the Federal Reserve's 2% target and how it impacts various asset classes.

💡FED Response

The FED response refers to the actions taken by the Federal Reserve in reaction to changes in the economy, particularly focusing on monetary policy tools like interest rates and quantitative easing. In the video, the guest discusses the FED's potential reactions to inflationary dynamics and fiscal dominance.

💡Valuation Concerns

Valuation concerns refer to worries about the current price levels of assets relative to their fundamentals, such as earnings or cash flow. In the video, the guest expresses valuation concerns for certain types of stocks, like large-cap growth equities, but not for assets like energy, gold, and Bitcoin.

💡Bitcoin ETF

A Bitcoin ETF (Exchange-Traded Fund) is a financial product that tracks the value of Bitcoin and allows investors to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency without having to buy and hold the actual digital currency. In the video, the approval of a Bitcoin ETF is discussed as a factor that could influence Bitcoin's price and liquidity.

💡Commercial Real Estate

Commercial real estate refers to buildings or land used for business purposes, such as offices, retail spaces, or industrial properties. In the video, the guest advises staying away from commercial real estate investments due to an ongoing 'slow-motion train wreck' in the sector.

💡Sector-Specific

Sector-specific refers to particular industries or segments of the economy that are being discussed or analyzed. In the video, the guest emphasizes the importance of being sector-specific when discussing market outlooks, as different sectors can experience varying levels of success or challenges.

💡Risk-On Sentiment

Risk-on sentiment refers to the attitude of investors who are willing to take on higher levels of risk in the pursuit of higher returns. It is often associated with a bullish market environment. In the video, the guest discusses how the current market sentiment may not be as risk-on as it appears and could change over the course of the year.

💡Yield Curve

The yield curve is a graph that plots the interest rates of bonds across different maturities. It is used to analyze the relationship between interest rates and bond terms, and it can provide insights into the health of the economy. In the video, the guest expresses her views on the potential steepening of the yield curve and its implications for fixed income markets.

💡Fiscal Dominance

Fiscal dominance is a situation where government fiscal policy, particularly spending and taxation decisions, has a more significant impact on the economy than monetary policy. It often occurs when public debt levels are high, and the central bank's ability to control inflation is limited. In the video, the concept is discussed in the context of its implications for investment strategies and the economy.

Highlights

The fiscal backdrop is a key factor in the surprising upside performance of certain assets.

In新兴市场, local currency weakness creates headwinds for shorting assets.

Lyn Alden, founder of Linn Alden investment, shares her views on asset classes for the remainder of 2024.

Bitcoin, gold, and energy are the assets Lyn Alden is most bullish on for the near future.

Inflation may not decrease to the Fed's 2% target anytime soon due to fiscal dominance.

The Fed's response to new inflationary dynamics may be limited due to fiscal policies.

Government spending has significant consequences on the economy and asset classes.

Large cap growth equities have valuation concerns, but energy and smaller value spectrum companies do not.

Earnings results have been disappointing, leading to a drop in the stock market indices.

Sector-specific analysis is crucial for understanding market trends and potential slowdowns.

Risk-on sentiment may reverse over the course of the year, affecting market performance.

Fiscal dominance is a key factor in the current investment environment, affecting asset classes and market outlook.

Bitcoin and gold have moved up due to improving liquidity, which is fiscally driven.

The anticipation of Bitcoin ETF and the actual having can impact Bitcoin's price and demand.

Gold's rally is influenced by real interest rates and fiscal dominance, potentially signaling a higher trend in the coming years.

Lyn Alden's book, Broken Money, discusses the failure of the financial system and ways to improve it, focusing on fiscal dominance and the impact of Bitcoin and stablecoins.

Transcripts

overall the reason that those assets

continue to surprise to the upside is

because of that fiscal backdrop you know

if you were trying to short Assets in an

Emerging Market in the local currency

you're going to continually get

headwinds from the fact that that

currency is so weak right it's just it's

just that currency is going up in Supply

so quickly that the assets that you're

denominating them in might not be doing

great in real terms but they're

certainly doing fine in that local

currency term fan favor Lyn Alden

founder of Linn Alden investment

strategy returns to the show to share

with us the asset classes that she's

most bullish on for the remainder of

2024 what she thinks will happen to Gold

Bitcoin and stocks for the remainder of

the year and into next year why she

thinks inflation may not come down to

the fed's 2% Target anytime soon how the

FED will likely respond to this new

inflationary Dynamic and why fiscal

dominance is so important right now and

we'll discuss exactly what this means

and why the government is spending so

much money and the consequences of all

this fiscal spending first a from our

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welcome back to the show always good to

see you always happy to be back on

thanks for having me felt like yesterday

when we last spoke but really it was

November so lots has happened since 4

months ago I like to start with current

market action stocks gold and Bitcoin

have all moved up I think investors

would first and foremost like to ask you

which assets you think would be um

something that should be overweighted

for the remainder of the year um so for

this year I mean I I'm bullish on

bitcoin gold energy uh that's kind of

the big areas of focus uh for me at this

time uh you know a lot bitcoin's already

had a lot of powerful price action

obviously earlier this year um so I

think now it's consolidating a little

bit but you know over this year and next

year I I'm bullish on all those assets

that I mentioned uh and of course it

depends on what their Capital mandate is

so you know energy is cheap and

profitable and has good balance sheets

generally um gold and Bitcoin are kind

of um alternatives to treasury bonds or

alternatives to tech stocks for example

they can they can fit in a portfolio in

that context um and so those are kind of

the assets that I I find attractive at

the current time would you say that

valuation are a concern for you at

current levels for all these

assets uh so I think that um large cap

uh growth equities have valuation

concerns so for example large profitable

tech companies even companies like

Costco for example they're very highly

priced relative to their fundamentals

relative to their growth um basically

it's not a problem necessarily with the

companies themselves I mean Costco is

doing amazing it's just that investors

are are really crowded and really kind

of piling into them so I do have

valuations concerns uh for those um I

don't really have valuation concerns for

energy uh for certain ends of the value

Spectrum for some of these smaller

companies um nor do I have valuation

concerns for gold and Bitcoin inste it's

just a matter of that sometimes they can

get um euphorically overbought in the

intermediate sense um so that that's

something I look out for um but other

than that I think that those errors are

still not very crowded in terms of

overall investor portfolio positioning

just today as we're speaking on Tuesday

uh this week earnings are starting to

come in um some of the results have been

disappointing indeed the Dow is dropping

uh stocks are dropping today as we speak

uh the S&P is down 1% the nasdaq's down

1.3% the Dow's down 400 points um some

have told me that weak earnings are to

be expected as we head into what may be

an economic slowdown or some sort of

contraction do you agree with that view

so I think you have to be sector

specific I think that's been the

challenge so over the past

call it 18 months you know we've had a

we've had a PMI a purchasing managers

index below 50 for like a year and a

half um and so that's already been

recession like conditions for certain

industries and of course commercial real

estate's been in a depression like um uh

context whereas uh some of the more

service oriented um business out there

Tech there's other areas that have been

in recovery mode um and so I I think

that some of that could rotate in the

sense that some of the things that have

been doing really really well um could

increasingly show some weakness uh ahead

whereas some of the things that have

already gone through that down cycle and

if anything I I think some of them are

recovering I expect probably Higher pmis

by the end of this year than than we

started the year at um and I think some

of those more cyclical things could

follow that so I think that that that

question of slowdown versus not slow

down is is very sector specific I think

instead it's more of a rotation a re

acceleration some of those things even

as some of those those bigger Tech

things um you know do slow down I think

the slow down may or may not affect

sentiment what do you think do you think

risk on sentiment which has obviously

been the case for the last 6 months

could reverse over the course of the

year uh so I I do but I think that even

some of the action we've seen is

indicative of not super bullish

sentiment you know people don't pile

into cost 50 times earnings necessarily

purely out of bullishness some of that

is because it's it's actually a form of

defensiveness it's saying you know I

don't really want to own bonds per se I

want to buy a really Blue Chip company

and I'll crowd into that rather than

owning any of the things that are more

cyclical the energy names the banks uh

you know that's the the the capital

flight out of there I think has been

indicative of riskof behavior um and so

I don't I don't view that the current

period we've been in as super risk on um

and instead it's more indicative of

fiscal dominance

um indicative of how many other areas

are perceived as not investable um and I

I think what we could see is a

broadening out of what is perceived as

investable right so some some of those

some of the risk uh sentiment could

actually increase for some of the things

that have been considered too risky

whereas some of those things that people

crowded into um I think people could get

quite concerned with the level of

valuation there relative to the growth

numbers that are coming in um you know

if you've seen for example apple and

Tesla just not putting up amazing

numbers and the problem is that

investors had

overpaid uh for relatively spectacular

results that they're not they're not

getting in the fundamental data yeah so

sector specific then well the obvious

followup question is which sectors are

you most bullish on and least bullish on

uh so I generally like um Industrials I

like um energy energy I think is the the

more attractive risk reward and I think

with financials um as long as you kind

of avoid the commercial real estate

concentration I think most of that is is

at the current time um I I think those

are I think even like for example the

Midstream energy sector for example

that's been showing signs of breaking

out it's it's it's kind of new uh post-

pandemic highs let's call it uh and they

pay you very high yields while you own

them as well um and so I I think that

there are a bunch of investable areas um

and that the market has largely not

wanted to touch those and that those are

even at the current time presenting

opportunity now when you get kind of

overall riskof sentiment bad days you

can get Capital pulling out of those as

well um but basically by being cheap and

having good fundamentals they they

somewhat limit the downside um and then

they pay to own them so even if the

upside takes longer to come to fruition

it's still a positive carry asset for

many of these while while you own it uh

you mentioned commercial real estate

something we should stay away from uh

even today in April 2024 why is that

well so it's I think it if if someone is

a professional commercial real estate

investor I think that there are going to

be opportunities right there's obviously

going to be bargain hunting like super

cheap opportunities um but in general I

think we're seeing just an ongoing slow

motion train wreck in commercial real

estate um I think there are more losses

coming I think that lenders that are

heavily Expos their commercial real

estate or likely continue having problem

um I would say a lot of that's already

priced in a lot of that you know a lot

of those things are already super cheap

Capital it's a it's a it's a very

wellknown theme at this point that

commercial real estates in trouble um

and I think that you know a theme I've

been making is that so many people keep

saying that commercial real estate is

going to drive the next recession

whereas what I've been pointing out is

even even the bearish assumptions are

looking at say like 1.5 trillion in

equity wiped out of commercial real

estate um whereas if you look at fiscal

deficits you know they're over one and a

half trillion per year um and overall

household net worth is something like

like 140 trillion and and rising at

all-time highs right so there are these

Pockets that can do really badly and

that you know if you're if you're

exposed to a bank that has a

disproportion amount of lending to

commercial real estate for example there

still could be more shoes to drop there

but that if you're in areas that are not

really in that area if you're in energy

if you're in other types of Finance if

you're in um you know other Assets in

general even certain Emerging Markets um

those can can I think continue to re

accelerate out of their kind of pandemic

lows uh while these other things

continue to suffer because we're in this

environment of kind of structural fiscal

dominance you know it's very hard to

have a uh recession when you're pre-

stimulating to the tune of you know one

and a half or two trillion dollars a

year in fiscal deficits and it doesn't

mean that's not necessarily a good thing

um but that's just it's a different

reality on the ground a lot of it is

kind of like an Emerging Market where

you have to separate nominal

expectations from real expectations

because you have that underlying kind of

fiscal unsustainable backdrop and that

just changes what investments make sense

uh in a nominal sense I do want to come

uh come back to your fiscal um dominance

Theory uh as well as some of the asset

classes that you mentioned in particular

uh specifically uh but first let's sum

up your overall Market Outlook before we

move on to that so bottom line are you

expecting some form of a broad Market in

equities at least correction later on

this year whether it be a result of an

overextension of prices or a result of

um some sort of

recession uh so I I'm not the answer is

I'm not sure but I would say that I

would expect some rotation which is to

say that to to the extent that I want to

protect myself from that risk I would

not want to own the over owned things or

at least I would not want to be

overweight the things that other people

are overweight I would either want to

avoid them or downweight them compared

to other things that people have already

written off that that people are not

crowded into because even if we do get

that correction I'm not sure that it

would impact those other assets I'm I'm

referring to okay and uh speaking of

rotation are you expecting any more

Capital to rotate into the fixed income

Market in other words um how do you

think interest rates uh will affect uh

the broad fixed income or Bond um

portfolio so I'm I'm neutral on those I

I do eventually expect to see curve

steepening either because the front

end's cut or because the long end Rises

a little bit or a mix of both and so the

overall risk reward of the long end is

is still not super attractive to me um

to the extent that I like bonds I either

like t- bills or I like intermediate

term tips for example um I don't

particularly like the long duration

bonds which is not to say that I don't

think that they will you know it's not

that I even if they squeak out gains for

the year for example there are much

other there much better other assets

that I'd prefer to own from a risk

reward standpoint I refer I prefer to

own things that I view as asymmetric

meaning that the downside is relatively

contained um whereas the upside has a

lot of room to go where and I don't view

the bond market in that situation I

wouldn't be surprised if we see yields

higher or lower um by the end of this

year but it it doesn't feel like it's

weighted toward a a kind of a strong

long outcome so it's just an era that I

kind of put into the too hard pile and

say that it's just it's not a lot of

opportunity for the amount of risk I

take on so if you expect the yield curve

to steepen I'm assuming then you expect

the long end of the curve to continue

going up even if the FED cuts which

would bring down the uh short end of the

curve is that correct yeah or or it

stays sideways while while the FED cuts

the short end there's a couple different

yeah ways and magnitudes that could

happen and to the extent that long end

yields stay higher than expected that

could put pressure on some of those

highly valued equities that we just

talked about right so I think the Bond

markets already um a little worried

about re accelerating inflation but we

haven't really seen that in the large

cap equities yet um I think that they've

still discounted the possibility of

reaccelerating inflation and so some of

that's potentially not priced in um and

so th those crowded areas might not they

might be they might correct or at least

stagnate for a period of time if they

come to fully realize that that the long

end yields are maybe not going down as

quickly as some investors expect are we

having reaccelerating inflation Lynn uh

I mean the latest CPI numbers have not

Fallen at all since the previous months

um however they haven't um substantially

re accelerated at least on paper yet so

please elaborate on what you mean by

that so I I think we're seeing

stabilization of inflation and the and

the the step before re acceleration is

stabilization so if it if it's not going

down that's that's a sign of a potential

bottom um and you know one of my themes

for a while is that this decade will be

more inflationary than the past decade

but it won't be a straight line it'll

come in waves as most inflationary

decades do and that those ways will

generally be correlated with um economic

acceleration or deceleration especially

some of the more energy intensive areas

and so for example uh you know pmis like

we just talked about have been falling

in for a while they they then have been

stabilizing for a while and they're

they're actually showing earlier signs

of of recovery and reacceleration and I

I think inflation could follow that with

somewhat of a lag I do think if we see a

continued PMI Up Cycle um that could

come with a little bit of inflation so

it's not like I'm forecasting inflation

to quickly retest the highs we saw you

know a couple years ago but I do think

that the fed's it's going to be sticky

it's going to be basically inflation's

not going to go down to the fed's Target

as quickly as they'd want it to um and

that inflation I think is going to hover

3% or higher most likely um and and I

think the key thing to watch to see if

it can go much higher than that is

energy um you know I I expect rent

inflation to kind of stabilize not

really Trend lower but not necessarily

explode higher either because there's a

lot of Supply coming online but it's

really the energy markets that I think

um are worth watching to see if we end

up having above like inflation that's

even above kind of current levels that

are already elevated relative to targets

so the FED how would they respond to

this stabilization of inflation you

think I think neutrally I I think that

they they already kind of realized that

um their tools are not

necessarily um well positioned to deal

with this so when I talk about fiscal

dominance what I refer to is when we

look over the let's call it I did charts

on this

like for example the past 70 years if

you look at where most um credit

creation happens right mostly it's in

the private sector so for example if you

sum up net new bank loans and net new

corporate bond issuance in a given year

that sum is usually bigger than annual

fiscal deficits um so that that's kind

of private sector Main Street um credit

financing um and for the most part

that's bigger than annual fiscal

deficits but one thing we've seen in in

recent years is that fiscal deficits are

bigger than those combined right so

there there's more kind of you know

nominal power coming from the public

sector than the private sector and that

has a couple implications basically the

fed's main tools are around modulating

the speed of things like bank loans and

and credit issuance if they want to try

to slow down inflation they try to raise

rates or do quantitative tightening to

try to slow down that private sector

activity until they get you know either

recession or a near recession

and the problem is that in the current

ERA because the the deficits are mainly

you know it's mainly a fiscal driven

large deficit phenomenon that's where

the inflation's coming from there's only

so much that they can slow down that

private sector and a problem is that you

know back in the 70s for example or the

early 80s when they wanted to try to

control inflation they had very low

public debt and so if they raised rates

they could slow down that private sector

credit creation and that would have a

bigger negative impact than any sort

sort of increased public interest

expense they would have from those

policies but if you fast forward to the

current time instead of 30% at the GDP

there's 120% at the GDP and so when they

raise rates Super High um it does slow

down that private sector credit creation

moderately but then it completely blows

out the public um interest expense and

overall fiscal deficits by an even

larger number and so they're they're not

really able to slow it down to the

extent that they would be able to if

they were in a lower public debt

environment and where most of this was

coming from that private sector so it's

really about not having the right tools

to to address it directly and I think

that you know they're they've been kind

of been acknowledging that um even just

not directly so I think what you would

generally see is they'd probably stick

at relatively High indust rate levels

they probably would not aggressively

raise them more um they might focus more

on curve steepening because that's a

that's a way to you know moderate cost

for the government uh while keeping

higher industry pressures on the private

sector you know mortgage rates and and

corporate bond rates and things like

that so I do think that they might start

start targeting curve steepening um but

I think it's mostly about just

expectation management I think they're

going to be relatively

neutral even if inflation re accelerates

and I think it's going to be an ongoing

kind of narrative issue for them suppose

energy moves up um and accelerates there

and brings inflation up with it do you

think the Fed May respond by raising

rates again so it's possible um my base

case is they would first focus on higher

for longer rather than raising rates um

because I actually think that the

raising rates Beyond a certain point can

actually be stimulatory that's that's

the challenge you face in a fiscal

dominant environment so if if most of

the if most of the money creation was

happening because of the private sector

then higher rates would generally be uh

not stimulatory the opposite it would be

depression

but because a lot of this is fiscal

driven and that's interest rate it's not

sensitive to interest rate the spending

the taxation it's largely not sensitive

to interest rates and so by raising

rates they actually just increase the

deficit more and that's where a lot of

the stimulus is is coming from um and so

you know they might turn to Rising rates

but I think it would be ineffective if

they did uh instead they probably will

just kind of keep it high and we'll see

if they try to rotate the yield curve to

be steeper that that might be one of the

one of the more optimal approaches um

but really it's it's I'm less concerned

with what the fed's going to do because

I don't think they're in the driver's

seat um I think the fiscal side's more

in the driver's seat and I think that

the fed's going to kind of move around

whatever the fiscal side's doing let's

talk about uh this fiscal dominance that

you're referencing so uh first of all

what do you mean by that exactly and why

do you think there's so much fiscal

spending or just spending overall from

Congress right now so for the first one

fiscal dominance is basically when you

know B like so monetary policies things

like indust rates or central bank

balance sheet fiscal policy is like

taxing and spending Decisions by the

government and fiscal dominance is when

that latter has a much bigger impact on

the economy than the former and more

specifically it's when the former whose

tools are meant to control inflation are

no longer able to control inflation

because most of their tools are geared

toward the private sector whereas much

of this is happening from that fiscal

side from the public sector and Central

Bank tools don't really address the

fiscal side um another way of putting it

is that in in an era where there's no

fiscal dominance higher indust rates

should lower inflation because you're

you're you're softening private sector

credit creation and you're strengthening

the currency from the perspective of

forign investors um but in a in a a a

high public debt fiscal dominance regime

higher indust rates are not always

negative for inflation because although

they do put downward pressure on some of

the those private sector things they put

upward pressure on the fiscal deficit

due to higher interest expense and

that's that's partially what's fueling

inflation in the first place that

interest expense by the government is

someone else's income right so for

example if I use myself as example I

have I have a fixed lockin mortgage and

I have money markets if they increase

interest rates they increase my income

which I can spend right and I'm not the

only one like that there's many

corporations in that position there are

many um uh households in that position

ironically um and so if the private

sector termed out their debt and the

government has

not and specifically that those levels

are very high that's where it start to

get a a feedback loop that is not in

line with what the past 40 years have

been and to answer your second question

why why are they spending so much I

would say I mean a lot of it's locked in

it's demographics it's it's polit it's

it's a gridlocked congress it's it's

military spending it's geopolitical it's

all the above but I think the broader

more structural thing is that over the

past 4 years there's been constant

deficits uh for the most part um Rising

debt to GDP but that's been offs set by

40 Years of declining interest rates and

so interest expense was never really a

problem if you double your debt but you

cut your your interest rate in half then

your debt servicing costs are not really

a problem right and so it's been 40

Years of that math happening and the

problem is that if you um are are

continuing to rise public debts and

deficits but your interest rates go all

the way to zero and bounce off zero and

then start going sideways to up you no

longer have that offset anymore and so I

think that's the that's the bigger

factor for what's happening is that that

the the kind of the natural conclusion

of Decades of you know deficits and and

debt accumulation is that we kind of

enter this new period where interest

expense starts to actually matter and

they start to enter this kind of

long-term fiscal spiral which again

doesn't mean anything major happens this

year but it means that this this overall

kind of f schoal train is just is not

going to stop anytime soon and it's it's

this new background structure that as

investors uh or any of us operating in

the economy have to contend with that

it's a it's a different background

structure than than the prior decade

I've noticed just by looking at the

chart that uh the federal Surplus or

deficit in this case the deficit as a

percentage of GDP has continuously widen

over the last 40 years like you've like

you've mentioned Lynn but has

accelerated in its widen since 2008 and

so if you just look at the charts well

you would say to yourself since 2008 the

American Stock Market um has seen the

longest bull Rally or Market in history

correlation causation who knows but

certainly a deficit doesn't hurt the

stock markets in fact a whing deficit

has boosted the stock markets so just on

the surface and I may make the argument

that as an investor I may want the

government to spend more money money

stimulate more widen the deficit because

that's good for assets and nominal

values of assets would you agree or

disagree I mean from an investor

standpoint probably especially in

nominal terms I mean in Emerging Markets

when they go through issues usually

things go up in their local currency

term even if they do poorly in dollar or

gold terms and I think what we're

generally seeing is the some of these

developed markets especially the US have

certain Emerging Market characteristics

just to a less extreme degree um and so

the the you know if if I I had a view

that they were going to dramatically cut

the deficit tomorrow um then I would

invest differently I would own things

like I would own more uh bonds for

example um I would own more of those

types of assets and I would own less

equities and less of these other real

assets um so but because I don't expect

them to do that um I invest the way that

I do so yeah you could say it's it's

bullish on the assets that I want to own

if those deficits continue but that's

why I'm invested them in the first place

it's a high it's a higher nominal regime

overall um and it it can sometimes lead

to a higher real regime if if you know

you're kind of sucking monetary Capital

out of other countries like you know

places in Europe or places in Asia for

example if the US is running this

Playbook but investors are still fueling

it because they don't they don't they

don't know where else to invest the the

risk comes when they do feel like they

have Alternatives and this spending

still locked in and so if you get a

repudiation of the bonds while this is

still happening they don't really have a

way to slow it down that's where you

could get more obvious inflation risks

or things like that so it's one of those

things where in the early stages it does

feel pretty good and it's the later

stages where yeah you really get the

consequences from doing that um but yeah

I do think that overall um you know

investment dists have to take into

account the deficit and and part of why

I'm long certain assets is because of

that and the last point I would make is

that the challenge when they get to

these high debt levels in this

financialized of an economy is that even

if they try to do austerity even if they

try to say raise taxes and cut spending

um that would be be for a period of time

but then the problem is that tax

receipts are so heavily correlated to

asset prices now because you become so

financialized that by by cutting that

You' likely depress asset prices for a

period of time which would then

ironically increase the deficit again um

and so it's actually a very hard tail

spin get out of fiscally when you have

the combination of this High public debt

built on this financialized of an

economy if you had one of the other it's

easier to do if you have a financialized

economy but not highly indebted one you

can start to Def financialized gradually

um if you have a highly inded public

sector but it's built on a non-f

financialized economy then then

austerity might give you options to deal

with that um but if you have that

combination uh that's super hard to work

with especially when you you're you're

trying to work with it with a with a

gridlock Congress um there's really not

that many outcomes I see that that

change that which is which is why I

invest structurally the way that I do

okay uh is there a goldilock scenario in

which the government spends money and

perhaps widens the deficit but we don't

get inflation to run out of control in

other words mmt um in a scenario in

which we have stimulus which would be

good for Equity markets in nominal terms

but we don't get runaway inflation could

that happen so that would happen in in

the context where energy is abundant

right so a lot of new energy Supply is

coming online uh to kind of keep up with

that uh and two you have um deflationary

offsets from things like AI or other

Tech so for example if you ran very very

large deficits um but those uh for

example if you're if you ran very large

deficits but you used it to you know go

get copper mines and and build nuclear

plants and and data centers and and

things that were highly productive um

you know it might or might not be as I

as the private sector but at least would

it would you You' bring new Supply

online at the same time as you're

debasing your currency so you can you

can minimize how much uh on on a you

know kind of a per currency basis these

things are getting more expensive if at

all um the problem comes in when you

when you run this big fiscal deficit but

it doesn't go toward increasing the

supply of goods and services it goes

more toward consumption or more toward

locked in demographics or towards war or

things like that they're not really kind

of fueling that real GDP growth um and

so it it to the extent that AI or energy

abundance helps keep CPI down then it

but you're still running these big

deficits then that inflation will

generally show up in asset prices it'll

show up in things like gold and Bitcoin

and high quality equities and high

quality real estate that's that's where

that inflation will show up whereas if

it's if you do get energy bottlenecks or

AI does not um offset things as quickly

as some people expect then it's then

more of that would show up in CPI uh and

you'd be a little bit more careful of

some of those um you know High multiple

growth equities for example so if you're

if you're not sure about the two this

kind of the ratio of where that

inflation will end up then one thing you

can do is kind of invest in the middle

which is to say own things like gold and

Bitcoin and you know energy stocks for

example and and and kind of high quality

assets like that but still still be

cautious around the most highly valued

growth equities that that might get

punished if some of that inflation does

show up in in the CPI so let's talk

about energy first because you've

mentioned that several times throughout

the interview why is that you think

energy will um will uh will go up well

in other words why are you bullish on

energy this year so I I think that

overall we've got increasing demand for

energy um Supply is not terrible but

it's still relatively tight uh companies

are not heavily incentivized to invest

in new production

um and so um I think that overall Supply

is going to be kind of relatively con

constrained I think that um Shale oil is

going to grow more slowly in the coming

years than it did over the past decade

um and that there's be there's going to

be a price increase to bring in more

cacks to kind of bring in new Supply and

kind of incentivize that longer term

development of these energy resources I

also think that um you know over the

past o over the past 15 years the type

of tech we've had has been relatively

disinflationary so for example mobile

devices um social media these are not

particularly energy intensive things if

anything they they dematerialize a lot

of the other things we have to use

whereas Outsourcing a lot of high

computation thinking so making making

art making videos uh you know making

complex decisions that's actually pretty

energy intensive when we kind of put

that into the tech sphere uh it's more

of a combined software and Hardware

situation so I do think that we're going

to see more energy demand out of things

like data centers um and then that's

going to be challenging to meet and then

you need to do things like you need to

increase the electrical grid capacity

which is ironically an energy intensive

thing to do uh a materially intensive

thing to do um and so I think that the

overall long-term demand is still up

Supply is mixed um and you know we've

generally seen energy kind of diff oil

prices and gasoline prices kind of

bounced off their lows a couple times

and head it up I think you know my guess

is that the lows are in maybe we retest

them again but overall I think there's

more upside potential than downside

potential but then the second part of

the investment thesis is that even if

Energy prices don't go up as quickly as

I think they will in the years ahead and

they're on the the more bare side of

kind of like sideways Trend a lot of

those companies are cheaply priced even

for current Energy prices and have good

balance sheets and spend most of their

capital on returning it to shareholders

um so they kind of keep keep their

current situation but they're not

aggressively trying to expand and

instead they you know they buy back

shares they pay dividends they they

improve their balance sheet you know

they they decrease their net debt um and

so that's basically a positive carry

Outlook which is to say that even in a

middle of the road scenario I think

those Investments are still attractive

compared to things like t- bills

basically compared to um you know mon

monetary Alternatives which which forms

of energy will likely benefit the most

from the rise of AI and the KN for more

energy so I would say across the board

oil gas and and uranium um basically um

I think that um with those types of

things variable energy sources don't

necessarily cut it uh you need

consistent energy sources and you need

an uh an uptick in overall grid capacity

which uses a lot of materials and is

built by machines using hydrocarbons um

and so I I think it's I think it's an

all the above situation I think we'll

see we will see you know more solar and

wind coming online but I think it's

those more um uh in control or base loow

types of energy sources that will also

continue to be in demand so I I think

across the board higher energy across

the board I I've heard the possibility

of Bitcoin mining producing energy that

could be sold to the grid is that

something that you're looking for well

so what what Bitcoin mining does is it

soaks up stranded energy so um when we

you know the supply of the grid is

fluctuating right it's some some if it's

solar and wind it's obviously

fluctuating based on on those conditions

if it's Hydro it's fluctuating based on

on rain uh if it's nuclear it's always

on so either way you have this kind of

always on or or fluctuating supply of

electricity and then on the demand side

you also have fluctuating demand so

during the day there different Cycles um

and then during the seasons there

different levels of temperature and

things like that and the problem is that

grids have to be designed for like the

hottest day of the year like when

everybody has their air conditions on

when everybody's using Peak electricity

they have to designed for that day to

hopefully not have brown outs which

means they have to overbuild for every

other day and so you have this kind of

you have these kind of two side waves of

supply and demand electricity and

they're always dealing with like a

potential mismatch and so sometimes

they're shutting off energy sources

sometimes they're you know they're

sometimes they're having brown outs it

depends on the grid we're talking about

and one thing that coin mining is is

it's a very flexible demand source so

you know they you know when energy

pricing is cheap they can be operating

at full speed but then as soon as energy

pricing gets expensive either because

some Supply went offline or because

there's been a surge in demand they can

throttle back their demand because

they're in the the most flexible

position to do that obviously if you're

a hospital you can't just you can't you

know change electricity based on pricing

and even if you're even if you're doing

something like you're a manufacturer or

you're running an office you know you

can't it's it's it's it's much more

disruptive to change your electricity

consumption based on grid pricing or

grid shortages compared to if you're a

Bitcoin minor and you structure your

contract to say look we're going to get

the lowest cost but we're going to be

the first in line to turn off whenever

there's a issue and that's how they

structure that or they sell it back to

the grid there's also things like you

know the World Bank estimates um you

know if look at their estimates for how

much natural gas is just flared into the

atmosphere every year uh it's something

like an amount of energy that can power

the Bitcoin Network eight times over um

or or how much methane leaks out from

landfills into the atmosphere right so

basically there's just there's a a

unfathomable amount of of distrained

energy out there and over time Bitcoin

kind of fills in those gaps it takes a

couple Cycles to do so but we've already

been seeing it do that and I think that

trend is going to continue I think it

just becomes an embedded part of the

grid and that anytime you have any sort

of variable power or fluctuating demand

relative to steady power um you're

leaving money in the table if you're not

if if you're you know if you're not

using some of that to mine Bitcoin

because if you're getting zero zero or

negative cost NE I mean negative revenue

for your energy then you're leaving

money on the table on that note let's

finish up on the Bitcoin and gold price

uh first of all do you think Bitcoin and

gold moved up for more or less the same

reason this year I generally think so I

think we've generally seen improving

liquidity a lot of its fiscal driven um

and and so I do think that they you know

they've resisted the fact that yields

are higher right so normally when you

see yields and especially real yields

this High you should see gold a lot

lower than it is um and so I think that

gold investors have been sniffing out

some of those fiscal problems that I've

been talking about uh and in addition

because of you know kind of uh Decisions

by central banks to diversify their

Reserve Holdings and have more gold in

their portfolios that's been another

huge Factor as well so especially from

that foreign component um there's been a

lot of demand and so you know bitcoin's

obviously had somewhat similar Catalyst

it's heavily tied to liquidity it's had

Catalyst from the ETFs and things like

that as well so the two the reasons that

both of them are rising I don't think

are perfectly um overlapping but I do

think that they are following liquidity

and which is large a fiscal driven

phenomenon if you were to add stocks to

that equation so stocks Bitcoin and gold

have all been rising to new highs this

year here uh would you look at that and

actually be concerned at the current

economic environment and say well maybe

this is not sustainable uh because this

is not something we see very often to

have you know counter assets rising in

tandem does that thought ever occur to

you yes but that's that's generally what

you see in Emerging Markets when they

have fiscal problems or currency

problems it's just it's just not to the

same magnitude you see in those

environments so it's a it's a byproduct

of fiscal problems not yeah I think what

we're seeing is the denominators going

down more so than some of those assets

are going up outside of the big bubble

ones um and you know I would be

concerned about some of the major stock

indices because of how concentrated they

are into some of the most expensive

growth names um and so I expect the

fundamentals of a lot of those growth

names that probably do pretty well it's

just the the question of how much you

pay for them and how much of of us

household net worth is already stuffed

into equities um so I do have concerns

about them all to rise together um but I

think that overall the reason that those

assets continue to surprise to the

upside is because of that fiscal

backdrop you know if you were trying to

short Assets in an Emerging Market in

the local currency you're going to

continually get headwinds from the fact

that that currency is so weak right it's

just it's just that currency is going up

at Supply so quickly that the assets

you're denominating them in might not be

doing great in real terms but they're

certainly doing fine in that local

currency terms and you know we're not

anywhere near that level but it's

directionally a similar problem when you

have this kind of un unrestrained fiscal

spiral that's kind of just slow motion

background situation that just changes

how some of these assets are priced and

it doesn't mean you can buy things at

any price but it means that when in

doubt the the answer is that scarce

assets will go up in price relative to

currency units the Bitcoin having that

was not something you brought up was

that an part of the equation at all the

anticipation of the having or even

uh going back to early January when the

Bitcoin ETF was approved how much of uh

how much of a factor did those um did

those events play I think those are both

factors I think the ETF unlocks there's

there's pools of capital that are very

big that have not been able to access

Bitcoin um and and so those pools of

capital can increasingly access Bitcoin

and so that's kind of pan up demand for

exposure to the network uh that they now

have exposure to or at least and they

don't even all have yet sometimes it

takes months for those things to still

get approval to start moving in and

start to become normalized in those

environments so I think I think that is

a a a contributor to price um the having

uh certainly in a sentiment sense can

raise expectations um I think that

overall liquidity is a much bigger

impact on bitcoin price during bull

market than the having itself um because

you know if you if you do the math for

how much Supply the having takes off the

market per day it's relatively small

compared to what you can get from ETF

inflows or relatively small compared to

what you can get in one way kind of net

exchange volume in a given day um and so

the overall changes in external demand

for Bitcoin play a bigger role than just

the havs during bull markets I think

where the havs really matter the most is

during bare markets they play a pivotal

role in why each cycle gets higher highs

and higher lows than the one before it

but in terms of the timing of bull

market specifically I generally Point

more more toward liquidity and less so

toward the having even though the having

is a very relevant kind of longer term

factor and so putting everything

together do you anticipate Bitcoin to

continue to outperform the other assets

this year so for this year I'm less I'm

less certain I prefer a two-year view on

bitcoin so I think that bitcoin's likely

going to do well over the next call it

two years um it get it can get through

periods where it's overbought right

where where you could you could have a

pretty poor three-month period with

Bitcoin and it could underperform almost

everything um and then it could have

another 3 to six months of just of

spectacular gains um and so um my view

is generally looking back from late 2025

I'd be surprised if Bitcoin was not

higher than it is now notably uh and and

that probably outperformed other kind of

large large cap things you can own um

but you have to account for the

volatility and you have to kind of be

prepared for that really uneven path to

get there okay and on gold um similar

question on gold we've seen that gold

and the real interest rates have been

negatively correlated throughout history

obviously recently in recent months

there's been a huge Divergence and so

how how sustainable do you think this

gold rally given this historical

correlation has broken down so I I think

that because we're now in this kind of

fiscal dominance regime higher interest

rates fuel the deficit even more um

which which potentially fuels gold um I

think you know you could get liquidity

like temporary liquidity shocks if for

example um you run these big deficits

the FED tries not to monetize them uh

and you get kind of um like a temporary

liquidity problem in Treasure markets

that could certainly contribute to a

gold selloff uh temporarily um but I do

think the the the breakout has likes to

it um I think that the breakout is is

real I think that it's it's based on

fundamentals I think that there's a a

good reason that a lot of foreign

investors want to own gold more so than

treasuries um and that they want to

basically have a better ratio of gold to

treasuries um and I think that that's

that's probably going to be a longer

term story uh and I have no view on what

gold does and say a three-month period

um but I do think it it's it's now that

it's broken out I think that's a very

strong sign that I think it's probably

headed higher in the next few years okay

and before we go tell us about your book

a little bit um broken money came out um

late last year congratulations um which

theme or themes of the book would you

say are most relevant u in today's

economic

environment I would say two I would say

one of them does focus on this fiscal

dominance uh topic that I I've talked a

lot about here uh if you're confused by

by about some of the things I said as it

relates to fiscal dominance some of the

chapters in the book for example lay out

specifically what I mean and how those

um situations materialize over time um

so kind of that that long-term cycle of

of how fiia currencies work is a big

theme I think the other big theme um

touches on bitcoin and stable coins in

the sense that they show the structural

change that they brought to the monetary

system so what the book does is it

focuses on the past present and future

money through the lens of technology and

a a common theme you see in the book is

that almost every friction in money for

centuries has been solved by another

layer of centralization so when people

wanted to send money to each other

faster they would they would tie into a

bank and use that as the middleman if

banks wanted to send money to each other

they would tie into a central bank if

central banks want to tie into each

other they tie into even bigger Central

Bank like you know back in in 1800s it

would have been the UK now it's the US

um and and so you kind of have like just

centralization all the way down and what

basically the way to describe that is

ever since the telegraph was widely

deployed in called the 1860s you've had

this environment where before then

transactions were slow and settlements

were slow and so middlemen could only

really do so much whereas in the post

Telegraph environment you can send

information around the world and now you

have fast transactions but you're still

an environment of slow settlements you

know things like gold um you know that

that's like a slow form of settlement in

a in a telecom era and what Bitcoin and

stable coins do is now you have fast

settlement and fast transactions and so

the the power of middlemen potentially

diminishes back down to where was

ironically before the telegraph except

now the whole thing's faster um and so I

think that that's a that's a macro theme

that's relevant as we see the current

environment of 160 different currency

monopolies all trying to compete with

each other they've all been riant on

having pretty closed Capital borders and

these Technologies just break those

borders open allow people to bypass them

allow people to do Global settlements

and rely Less on middlemen and I think

that has long-term macro implications

for the structure of the financial

system uh and the strength of of some of

these currencies excellent well thank

you very much Lindberg else can we learn

about you and your work uh people can

check out linen.com uh that's why I have

a lot of free articles free newsletters

and a lowcost research service okay and

your book once again is called broken

money why our financial system is

failing Us and how we can make it better

we'll put a link um to the book and uh

and your website in the description down

below thank you very much for joining us

today Lyn we'll see you again soon thank

you thank you thank you for watching

don't forget to like And

[Applause]

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