ETH / BTC Outlook

Summary

在这段视频中，演讲者深入探讨了以太坊（Ethereum）相对于比特币（Bitcoin）的估值问题。他提到，尽管自己在2019年夏季对ETH/BTC的估值持乐观态度，但随后由于美联储（Fed）可能大幅提高利率并缩减资产负债表规模，他的观点转为看跌。演讲者强调，他的评估更多基于货币政策，而非以太坊的基本面价值。他认为，即使在商业周期和市场周期的不同阶段，资产如以太坊也会经历相对于比特币的价值波动。他预测，ETH/BTC的底部可能在0.03到0.04之间，并可能在夏季某个时候出现。此外，他还讨论了监管压力对以太坊的影响，以及比特币ETF的批准情况对市场情绪的潜在影响。演讲者最后强调，如果ETH/BTC跌破支撑线，可能会迅速下跌，但如果美联储转向更宽松的货币政策，那么ETH/BTC可能会触底反弹。

Takeaways

• 📈 作者在2019年夏季对ETH/BTC（以太坊对比特币）的估值持乐观态度，但后来转为看跌，主要因为美联储（Fed）预计会大幅加息并缩减资产负债表。
• 🤔 作者强调，他对ETH/BTC的看跌并非基于以太坊的基本价值评估，而是对货币政策的评估。
• 🔄 作者认为，在商业周期和市场周期的某些阶段，即使是像以太坊这样的资产也会相对于比特币出现下跌。
• ⏳ 作者预测ETH/BTC的底部可能在0.03到0.04之间，并认为这将在今年夏天发生。
• 💡 作者提出，一旦美联储开始实施量化宽松（QE），ETH/BTC可能会触底反弹。
• 🚫 作者提醒观众，ETH相对于比特币有更高的风险，因此更容易受到监管压力的影响。
• 📉 作者讨论了ETH/BTC在重大事件后的波动，如比特币ETF的推出，以及市场对这些事件的反应。
• 💭 作者认为，ETH/BTC的下跌趋势可能是货币政策紧缩的结果，而非以太坊基本面的问题。
• 📅 作者预计，如果ETH的ETF被拒绝，ETH/BTC可能会进一步下跌，但最终的底部将与货币政策的放松有关。
• 🤷‍♂️ 作者提到，即使ETH的ETF被批准，市场可能仍会下跌，因为货币政策仍然偏紧。
• ✅ 作者建议，即使长期看好某个特定的山寨币，了解其相对于比特币的估值也是有益的，因为这可以帮助在市场周期的特定阶段做出更好的投资决策。

Q & A

视频中提到的加密货币市场周期是如何影响以太坊（ETH）和比特币（BTC）价值比的？

视频中讨论了加密货币市场周期对ETH/BTC价值比的影响。在紧缩货币政策期间，ETH相对于BTC往往会贬值，因为ETH被视为风险较高的资产。而在宽松货币政策期间，ETH/BTC价值比往往会上升。

为什么美联储（Fed）的政策变动会影响ETH/BTC的价值比？

美联储的政策变动，如利率调整和资产负债表的扩张或缩减，会影响整个金融市场的资金流动性。由于加密货币市场与宏观经济环境紧密相关，因此美联储的政策变动会间接影响ETH和BTC的相对价值。

视频中提到的ETF批准对ETH/BTC价值比有何潜在影响？

视频中讨论了如果ETH的交易所交易基金（ETF）获得批准，可能会短期内推高ETH/BTC价值比。然而，这种影响可能是暂时的，因为市场最终会回归到由货币政策等更宏观因素决定的价值比。

视频中提到的ETH/BTC价值比的底部区域是多少？

根据视频内容，ETH/BTC价值比的底部区域预计在0.03到0.04之间。这个预测是基于对市场周期和货币政策变动的分析。

视频中提到的2019年夏季发生了什么，与ETH/BTC价值比有何关联？

视频中提到，2019年夏季，由于对美联储政策变动的预期，ETH/BTC价值比出现了转变。当时，市场参与者预期美联储将减少紧缩政策，这可能导致了ETH/BTC价值比的上升。

为什么ETH相对于BTC在某些市场周期中会面临更大的监管压力？

ETH相对于BTC可能面临更大的监管压力，因为它在功能和用途上更为复杂，可能涉及到更多的监管不确定性。此外，ETH的智能合约功能可能引起监管机构更多的关注。

视频中提到的劳动市场表现如何影响ETH/BTC价值比？

视频中指出，劳动市场的表现，如失业率的上升，可能会迫使美联储调整其货币政策，从而影响ETH/BTC价值比。如果劳动市场表现疲软，美联储可能会采取更宽松的货币政策，这可能有助于ETH/BTC价值比的回升。

视频中提到的20月移动平均线（20mon SMA）对ETH/BTC价值比有何意义？

20月移动平均线可以作为ETH/BTC价值比趋势的一个技术指标。一旦ETH/BTC价值比超过并维持在20月移动平均线之上，这可能标志着ETH相对于BTC的弱势阶段已经结束。

视频中提到的比特币主导地位（Bitcoin Dominance）是什么，它如何影响ETH/BTC价值比？

比特币主导地位是指比特币相对于整个加密货币市场的市值比例。当比特币主导地位增加时，通常意味着市场更倾向于投资比特币，这可能会导致ETH/BTC价值比下降。反之，当比特币主导地位减少时，可能会有利于ETH/BTC价值比上升。

视频中提到的“最终投降过程”（final capitulation process）是指什么？

“最终投降过程”是指市场参与者在经历了一系列价格下跌后，最终放弃持有ETH并转向比特币，这通常伴随着ETH/BTC价值比的进一步下跌。这个过程可能是市场达到底部的一个信号。

如果ETH/BTC价值比跌破了之前提到的底部区域，会如何影响视频作者的观点？

如果ETH/BTC价值比跌破了0.03到0.04的底部区域，视频作者可能会重新评估他的市场观点。他提到，如果ETH/BTC价值比能够回升并维持在牛市支撑线之上，他愿意改变他对ETH/BTC价值比的看跌立场。

Outlines

00:00

📈 加密货币市场分析：以太坊与比特币估值讨论

本段落讨论了以太坊（ETH）相对于比特币（BTC）的估值情况。提到了自2019年夏季以来，由于美联储（Fed）可能的加息和缩减资产负债表，作者对ETH/BTC的估值由看涨转为看跌。强调了这种评估更多基于货币政策而非以太坊的基本面。同时，作者认为ETH相对于BTC风险更高，更易受到监管压力。预测ETH/BTC的底部可能在0.03到0.04之间，并可能在夏季出现。

05:02

🚦 ETH/BTC的熊市反弹与潜在的ETF批准影响

该段落分析了ETH/BTC熊市中的一次反弹，并讨论了比特币ETF批准对ETH/BTC估值的潜在影响。作者指出，重大事件后ETH/BTC可能会出现反弹，但最终可能会回落。提到了市场对ETH ETF批准的预期可能会影响价格，但即便ETF被批准，ETH/BTC可能仍会下跌，因为市场更关注的是货币政策。

10:05

💡 ETH/BTC的货币政策影响与市场底部预测

作者探讨了货币政策对ETH/BTC的影响，并预测了市场底部。认为ETH/BTC的下跌与货币政策紧缩有关，而一旦美联储放宽货币政策，ETH/BTC可能会触底。提到了失业率上升可能导致美联储改变政策，从而影响ETH/BTC的估值。作者预计ETH/BTC将在夏季触底，底部估值在0.3到0.4之间。

15:06

📉 ETH/BTC的季度表现与市场周期分析

本段分析了ETH/BTC在最近几个季度的表现，并讨论了市场周期对价格的影响。指出ETH/BTC虽然在季度回报上呈现小幅度下跌，但累计跌幅已经相当显著。作者通过比较历史数据，预测ETH/BTC可能会在夏季达到底部，并且这一底部与货币政策的变化有关，而非特定的ETF批准事件。

20:07

🤔 ETH/BTC的长期持有者策略与市场准备

作者对长期持有ETH的投资者提出了建议，强调了理解ETH相对于BTC的估值变动的重要性。讨论了在货币政策紧缩期间持有BTC的策略，并在政策放松时将BTC转换回ETH以实现利润最大化。作者认为，即使ETH/BTC出现下跌，了解市场周期和货币政策变动对于投资者来说至关重要。

25:08

🔍 ETH/BTC的估值底部与市场支持带分析

本段落深入分析了ETH/BTC的估值底部，并讨论了市场支持带的作用。作者预测ETH/BTC将在未来几个月内触底，并强调了劳动市场表现和美联储政策变动对ETH/BTC估值的影响。同时，作者提出了如果ETH/BTC突破牛市市场支持带，他将重新评估其对ETH/BTC估值的看法。

30:08

📊 ETH/BTC的20月移动平均线与市场趋势

作者讨论了20月移动平均线（20mon SMA）对ETH/BTC市场趋势的影响。指出一旦ETH/BTC突破并稳定在20mon SMA之上，这将是市场底部形成的确凿信号。作者回顾了上一个周期中ETH/BTC与20mon SMA的互动，并预测未来可能的市场走势，包括可能的底部形成和随后的上升趋势。

Keywords

💡以太坊（Ethereum）

以太坊是一个开源的有智能合约功能的区块链平台，它允许开发者创建和部署去中心化应用。在视频中，以太坊是讨论的主题之一，特别是在探讨以太坊与比特币的估值对比时。

💡比特币估值（ETH/BTC valuation）

这指的是以太坊相对于比特币的价值评估。视频中讨论了以太坊对比特币的估值变化，以及作者对这一估值未来趋势的看法。

💡联邦储备（Fed）

美国联邦储备系统，即美国的中央银行，负责制定和执行货币政策。视频中提到，联邦储备的政策变动，如利率调整和资产负债表的缩减，对以太坊和比特币的估值有重大影响。

💡货币政策（Monetary Policy）

货币政策是指政府或中央银行为影响经济活动，如通货膨胀和经济增长，而采取的措施。视频中强调了货币政策对加密货币市场，特别是以太坊对比特币估值的影响。

💡量化宽松（Quantitative Easing, QE）

量化宽松是一种货币政策，其中中央银行购买政府债券以增加货币供应量并降低利率。视频中提到，当美联储开始实施量化宽松政策时，以太坊对比特币的估值可能会触底反弹。

💡监管压力（Regulatory Pressure）

监管压力指的是政府或监管机构施加的政策或规则，可能对市场或特定资产产生影响。视频中讨论了监管压力对以太坊的影响，尤其是与比特币相比，以太坊可能面临更多的监管不确定性。

💡交易所交易基金（ETF）

交易所交易基金是一种跟踪指数、商品、债券或一篮子资产的金融工具，可以在交易所进行交易。视频中提到了以太坊ETF的潜在批准及其对以太坊估值的可能影响。

💡市场周期（Market Cycle）

市场周期指的是金融市场中价格和趋势的波动模式，通常与经济周期相关。视频内容中提到，理解和识别市场周期的不同阶段对于投资决策至关重要。

💡风险资产（Risk Asset）

风险资产是指那些价格波动较大、可能带来较高收益或亏损的投资，如股票和某些类型的加密货币。视频中提到，在货币政策紧缩期间，风险资产如以太坊可能会表现不佳。

💡失业率（Unemployment Rate）

失业率是衡量经济健康的重要指标，表示劳动力中未就业但寻找工作的比例。视频中讨论了失业率的变化如何可能影响联邦储备的政策决策，进而影响加密货币市场。

💡比特币主导地位（Bitcoin Dominance）

比特币主导地位是指比特币在所有加密货币总市值中所占的份额。视频中提到比特币主导地位可能会在某个时点达到顶峰，这通常与市场对其他加密货币的态度变化有关。

Highlights

讨论了以太坊（Ethereum）和比特币（Bitcoin）的估值，特别是ETH/BTC的比率。

提到了美联储（Fed）的货币政策对加密货币市场的影响，特别是对ETH/BTC比率的影响。

作者在2019年夏季对ETH/BTC比率持乐观态度，但后来转为看跌。

分析了ETH相对于BTC的高风险性，以及它对监管压力的敏感性。

讨论了比特币ETF（交易所交易基金）的批准情况对ETH/BTC比率可能产生的影响。

预测ETH/BTC比率的底部可能在0.03到0.04之间，并可能在夏季发生。

提到了市场周期和商业周期对ETH/BTC比率的影响。

分析了ETH/BTC比率下降趋势的原因，认为与货币政策紧缩有关。

预测一旦美联储开始实施量化宽松（QE），ETH/BTC比率可能会触底反弹。

讨论了ETH/BTC比率的技术分析，包括市场支撑和阻力水平。

提到了ETH/BTC比率的六周蜡烛图模式，以及它对预测市场底部的潜在意义。

强调了劳动市场表现和失业率变化对美联储政策决定的影响。

预测了ETH/BTC比率可能会在劳动市场显示弱点时触底。

讨论了ETH/BTC比率与ETH/USD比率之间的关系，以及它们对投资者的不同意义。

提出了如果ETH/BTC比率跌破特定支撑水平，可能会触发最终的市场投降过程。

分析了20个月移动平均线（20mon SMA）对ETH/BTC比率走势的潜在影响。

最后总结了对ETH/BTC比率的看法，并提出了可能改变观点的条件。

Transcripts

hey everyone and thanks for jumping back

into the cryptoverse today we're going

to talk about ethereum more specifically

we're going to be discussing the eth

Bitcoin valuation if you guys like the

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Bitcoin pair I actually launched my

channel in the summer of 2019 and was

very vocally bullish on the eth Bitcoin

valuation over here but I flipped my

view on eth bitcoin to bearish up

here because we knew that the Fed was

going to raise rates a lot and they were

going to be reducing the size of their

balance sheet considerably and so

my Reflections on all of this stuff has

never been sort of an assessment on

ethereum's fundamental value it's more

so an assessment on monetary policy

right and I I'll try to continue to say

that as much as I can because I think

it's often

misconstrued a lot of people might say

well you know if he's bearish on eth

bitcoin that means he's always been

bearish on it which means he's against

eth and that's not true I mean it's just

a matter of of where we are in the

business cycle where we are in the

market cycle and I I think it's a good

idea you know to just establish that

look even assets that you might like

like ethereum are going to go through

phases where they bleed against Bitcoin

it's always been that way it'll probably

always be that way and so rather than

fight that

Trend I think it makes more sense to

just say look you know when the FED is

reducing the size of their balance sheet

considerably e Bitcoin goes down and

when they're expanding it eth Bitcoin

tends to go up and this is this is one

of these like battles I've had to fight

so many times with people is to say you

know this this downtrend that you see

the eth Bitcoin pair in it's more so an

artifact of just Tighter and Tighter

monetary policy just like it was last

cycle once you see the pivot back to QE

then e Bitcoin will likely bottom out

now I want to go on the record now and

say

I do think the bottom for eth Bitcoin in

terms of time is relatively close I

still think the bottom is somewhere

between 003 to 004 that is my base case

and I think it's going to happen

sometime this summer so those are my

views I want to make sure I clearly

communicate those views I often you know

what I often see a lot of people say is

you know they'll sort of put out a sort

of a half view on it and then when e

Bitcoin RPS iies they'll throw shade my

way and then when it dumps they'll just

you know pretend like they didn't do

that but that is my view and it's based

on on monetary policy and nothing more

that's what it's based on and I do and

well I guess there is a little bit more

I mean it's not just based on monetary

policy it's also based on the idea that

ethereum is slightly higher risk than

than Bitcoin and therefore it's you know

it's more exposed to regulatory pressure

it's kind of like how the spot ETF for

Bitcoin was approved and while it

hopefully eventually the E ETF gets

approved it might not get approved this

may and that's just another artifact of

of you know regulatory pressure on

ethereum that doesn't really exist in

the same way for

Bitcoin so one of the things that we

talked about a few weeks ago in this

video right here we made a video on eth

bitcoin after it had rallied to 0.52 now

before that that video before this video

the video before it on eth bitcoin said

we could see one final Bounce by eth

Bitcoin following the Bitcoin having and

the reason for that is bit Bitcoin is

often sort of like the most

vulnerable against eth just after these

major events if you remember right after

the spot ETF launch eth Bitcoin went up

right you see that you can see that we

had the spot ETF launch right here the

week of of January 8th and then right

right then that's when eth Bitcoin shot

back up so when you have these major

events that's when the eth Bitcoin pair

the Bulls for the eth Bitcoin pair are

going to make their run they're going to

declare the bottom being in for it

because it's now past this major event

and that's exactly what happened after

the spotf the eth Bitcoin Bulls ran it

back up but as I said you know back then

this is likely just a repeat of all of

this right you get a low a high you have

a lower high the same thing right here

but that if it played out like last

cycle going into the having you will see

one more attempt for the eth Bitcoin

Bulls to try to break the bull Mark

sport band but that it likely will fail

and again it doesn't mean that it can't

go back up one more time but as I said

already what I thought was going to

happen was just after the having the eth

Bitcoin Bulls run it up one more time

and that is sort of symbolic of of those

people pricing in the unlikely

acceptance of the E spot ETF now again

that doesn't mean that I want it to be

rejected I actually like it when we have

more things to talk about other than are

the ETFs going to be approved or

rejected and if it is rejected I would

have High Hopes in the future that it

will finally it'll eventually be

approved but right now you know is it

going to be approved I honestly have no

crazy insight into that I'm just going

based on what what Market what industry

experts are telling me and and they're

mostly saying I mean not telling me just

telling you guys on Twitter that it's

likely not going to happen and so the

initial bounce is sort of the pricing in

of maybe just maybe it'll be approved

but that as it's not approv as the as

the probability of it of being approved

goes down meaning the SEC is not really

engaging with anyone regarding the eth

Bitcoin spot or the eth spot ETF as

they're not really engaging and people

kind of are seeing the writing on the

wall that's when the people that

initially tried to price that in are

like all right it's just going to fade

back down slowly which is what it did

over here right it's exactly what it did

over here again I don't think you need a

narrative to explain this price action

I'm just saying it wouldn't be that hard

to try to assign a narrative to the

Chart just like you could have assigned

some other narrative to the Chart back

over there on that bounce but again my

expectation is that the bull market

support band for eth Bitcoin will guide

it down and the closer you get to the

potential rejection of the spot ETF the

more likely it is that you end up taking

out this low over here from a month ago

now remember after this low was set in

May of 2013 we took that low

out about how many weeks later let me

actually get this exact so back then it

took about 8 weeks to take that low out

I don't know if it's going to take eight

weeks or not I would tend to think it's

not and the reason for that is it seems

like this move over here has been going

slightly quicker than the one from back

over here for instance you know if you

were to take the amount of time that it

took to go from you know this low right

here in late December to the next low

that was 22 weeks whereas from here to

here it was only about 13 weeks so it

seems like moving a little bit quicker

so I don't really think it has to take 8

weeks but if it did take 8 weeks that

would put it all the way out in in June

right so I mean it's possible but even

though it took eight weeks to break the

low it didn't take eight weeks to get

back down to the low you can see we

actually got back down to the low only

six weeks later right the wick came all

the way back down to that low so if you

were to go six weeks out from that low

that would put you the week of May 20th

which correct me if I'm wrong

but I do believe that is the

week where we're going to find out one

way or another about some of these ETFs

right again I haven't been following it

super closely but I have seen some you

know some things saying like May 22nd

May 23rd I know that the SEC keeps

trying to kick the K down the road as

much as they can but you know what if it

just bleeds back down and then breaks

support then now what would like L

happen in that scenario is that if it

were to break support it could probably

go down relatively quickly over the next

one month or so but my view again is

this is that if it breaks

support again which it kind of already

has I mean it's been breaking it and

it's just been the Market's kind of

adjusting to to it at these levels but

if it continues to break here and go

down that's probably going to represent

the final capitulation process of eth

Bitcoin and the reason why I feel

compelled to tell you about this is

because what I think could happen is

that if the ETF is rejected and eth

Bitcoin

capitulates then a lot of people are

just going to say they're going to put

on their Maxi hat their Bitcoin Maxi hat

and say all right you know forget eth

it's just going to go down on its

Bitcoin pair forever

but what if they're wrong right what if

the reason it has been

bleeding has nothing to do with its

deflationary mechanism what if it has

nothing to do with proof of stake what

if it has nothing to do with the

potential spot ETF rejection what if it

only has to

do with monetary policy and Inc you know

slightly increased regulatory pressures

but what if it's just based on monetary

policy and then you get this example

down here where eth Bitcoin

bottomed when the Fed started to expand

their balance

sheet how poetic would it be e Bitcoin

capitulates after e spot ETF is rejected

and then people are like all right fine

we believe you but they represent the

last capitulation right and so once they

finally

believe it then

bottoms I'm guessing around .3 to .4

and the reason for it to bottom would

have nothing to do with this PF which I

think is what the headlines would read

it would just have to do

with maybe maybe the FED is about to go

back to looser monetary policy which

they've already started to talk about in

in several different ways one of those

ways is the um they've said that they're

going to slow quantitative tightening

down from like 60 billion or something a

month to 25 billion

that's something and there's also some

other things that are going on that that

might actually um you know sort of be

seen as as stimulating uh to you know to

the economy as well in the next few

months but my point is this you have to

think about what would cause the FED to

go back to loose monetary policy is it a

coincidence that they're going to go

back to looser monetary policy not I

mean it's not going to be QE but it's

going to be slightly looser than what it

has been cuz they're going to start

start tapering QT is it a coincidence

that they're going to go to 25 billion a

month instead of 60 billion a month in

June which is precisely when we said

that Bitcoin do that Bitcoin dominance

might top sometime this

summer which is coinciding with when

people don't care as much about the

markets so I look at this and I think

there's s there's a great

opportunity in this idea of eth Bitcoin

bleeds back down around you know around

the time of spotf Rejection it breaks

the lows

capitulates and then everyone thinks

that eth is done because it just look it

looks bad right if you know there's no

ETF and Bitcoin has one they capitulate

and then it bottoms not because of the

spot

ETF

rejection but because of loci policy

finally

arriving and if you think about

it what would cause the FED to go back

to lose their monetary

policy weakening in the labor market

right if you go look at the labor market

the unemployment rate it's at I mean

this is this is the unemployment level

you look at the unemployment rate it's

at

3.9% you know and last May last May from

April to May it J it jumped 3/10 if it

were to jump 310 from April this April

to May i' put it at

4.2% right you can see how it could all

correspond

perfectly right ETF rejected e Bitcoin

capitulates but right then unemployment

rate hits 4% or over 4% and then the

FED goes to looser monetary policy and

then e Bitcoin bottoms just when

everyone finally believes in the

capitulation process but they're only

now believing after the entire move is

done

done you know I've been very vocal about

my views on E Bitcoin for a long time

and you know next cycle I'm not going to

be honestly but I do think that you

could easily make the case that you are

in sort of this phase right

here where after you break down you know

it then drops a little bit more over the

next couple of months and I'm going to

show you guys a chart that I think is

somewhat compelling but from here you

know this was a 47% drop that was a 32%

drop from the range from those lows you

know if you were to dropped just say 15%

that gets you near 0.004 you know if you

were to dropped 20% that gets you to the

range that we've been discussing for the

last two and a half years 03 to 04 and

that's where I think the bottom is on E

Bitcoin is 03 to 04 but it has nothing

to do with the spot ETF I could even

Envision a scenario where the spot ETF

is approved and it still goes down you

know I mean wouldn't that be crazy if it

were approved everyone then freaks out

Yolo's in and then it still goes down

because the Market's not based on the

spot ETF it's based on the fact that

monetary policy is still tight now

there's something I want to I want to

address here and I I've spent a lot of

time thinking about this and I I

honestly don't really have the best

answer but I'll try to provide at least

an analogy for you last cycle if you buy

the idea that it e Bitcoin B Bots once

looser monetary policy arrives then

you're probably also following what the

fed's doing okay because you can see

that I mean that's when it bottom last

cycle is when loer monetary policy

arrived and so you're probably watching

this too and you're thinking like all

right well whens it going to stop going

down they've already said they're likely

going to adjust quantity of tightening

you know they're they're going to adjust

it starting in June which is exactly

when we've said you know Bitcoin

dominance might top June

July I don't know what happens if you

know it does something like this like if

it goes down and then instead of going

down at the same Pace it then does

something like this where it just

slightly goes down you know what I'm

saying because in that case you could

argue that that is looser monetary

policy but it's still not QE right it's

it's not as bad as before but it is

still

QT and I don't really know honestly we

only have one example but what I want to

talk about now before it becomes an

issue in in a month is there might be

some Merit to this something like that

could

still provide a Tailwind for eth Bitcoin

sometime later on this

summer and I maybe one analogy to way is

one way to think about it is like this

all right let's think you are you you go

out on vacation for a week and you get

back to your house the heater went or

the the air conditioning went out while

you were gone I mean I think that's

happened to everyone at some point I

know it's happened to me before and you

get back to your house and the air

conditioning has been out and it's the

summertime so you get back and it's like

85 degrees in your house now if it's 85

degrees in your house you're not going

to want to be in there right you're

going to be in there you're going to be

sweating um it's going to be really hot

right 85 degrees and you're probably

going to think to yourself like gosh

like if only we could get this back to a

more reasonable temperature then I would

feel H you then I'd be happy

but you don't actually have to wait for

it to get back to your preferred

temperature like 70° 72° or you know 68

whatever all you really need to start

feeling better is for the air

conditioning to come back on so if it's

still

85° but you're sitting next to the vent

where the AC is coming out of if someone

comes over and fixes it you're going to

start feeling better before the room

temperature gets back to 70° right even

even if it's at 82 if you feel the cold

air sort of blowing on you you're going

to start feeling

better markets are forward-looking right

once you see it what you know once the

temperature is back to 70° and it's

obvious to

everyone then you know the low for eth

Bitcoin could be in the rearview

mirror so I think there's a case to be

made that you could still see the low

this summer on the eth Bitcoin pair if

it were to play

out kind of how I've I've been outlining

for the last two and a half years now

again there is some I mean there's a lot

of people that are are saying the low is

already in um and like I mean look they

could be right right and I've said

before I mean you know if you if you did

what I did and and and um we're we're

looking at this Market back over here

and thinking all right it makes sense to

stick with Bitcoin over eth until loose

monetary policy

drives you could trade some of it back

even at these levels and still be way in

the money and just you know deal with it

if it goes down a little bit more but my

point is that you know we've seen this

pattern many times before by many I mean

too and the way it eventually resolved

was to the

downside there's one really interesting

way to look at e Bitcoin and that's by

six-month candles and I I want to show

you this because I was looking at it I'm

like this we're getting close in terms

of time I don't know how close we are in

terms of valuation but I think we're

getting close in terms of time meaning I

do think we're likely only you know

potentially one month away to three

months away from the bottom on E Bitcoin

one to three months do you see six-month

candles I want you to look at this you

have a green candle right here you have

a green candle here then you have a red

then you have a red then you have a

green then you have a green then you

have three Reds in a row and we just

we're we're now in our third red in a

row six Monon candle for eth Bitcoin

right you can see that right three in a

row now here's the thing about this that

I've I've I've looked at for a long time

I've really struggled with with the best

way to interpret it and and the way to

sort of communicate it to you guys but

there's one thing that I think is

important to note and this is what has

made a lot of people feel like eth

Bitcoin is quote unquote holding up well

again I've not been of the assumption

that it is I think eth Bitcoin has been

not holding up well at all for the last

two and a half years but a lot of people

have said that it's holding up well and

the reason they say that is because it

you know it hasn't seen a big drop right

if you go look at at say quarterly

returns right look at quarterly returns

for E Bitcoin point and you'll see what

I'm talking about it's been a slow bleed

so it feels like it it isn't happening

right I mean look at this e Bitcoin is

now read six quarters in a row and it's

also been read eight out of the last 10

quarters I mean like that's not the

definition of holding up well if you're

bleeding eight out of 10 quarters but

look at this a lot of these quarters you

know it's only dropping like 2% here 12%

there 5% there 5% there and so it feels

like it's not a lot but then you kind of

look back on it at some point and you're

like oh while everyone thought it was

holding up well it still dropped you

know 47% against Bitcoin but I want you

to look at something here because this

is kind of interesting do you see this

first red candle right

here after this green one you see how

large it was it was a it was a big drop

and the next two were really small or

really low really small red candles it

was only 24% 33% but this one was 50%

now look at these over here this one was

12% and this one was 15% so I'm arguing

that these two candles are like these

two but perhaps this is the one that

comes at the end here to get it down to

003 to 04 potentially after rejection of

the spot ETF in in a few weeks and then

it potentially bottoms out in the summer

which is precisely when we've said that

Bitcoin dominance excluding Stables is

likely going to top right and that's

probably when it's going to top because

that's normally when Bitcoin dominance

finds a a top is sometime in the summer

and then once you get back into Q3 Q4

you know the DJs return from their

summer vacation and they start bidding

up alts again so what if that's the the

the outline right what if you know

dominance excluding Stables just kind of

goes back up to the Range High

here not the Range High the top of the

wedge this is 64% but including Stables

it would be

60% right as eth

Bitcoin is breaking down to03 to 04

following spot ETF

rejection I just I feel like that is

probably the most likely

outcome based on on what we see I I

really do think that is the most likely

outcome and

so for me to be bullish on the eth

Bitcoin

pair I first of all think you need lose

for monetary policy which is probably

going to start in June but that doesn't

mean that the low is in it means that

we're close in terms of time but not

necessarily close in terms of valuation

it could still drop 20% from the current

valuation which might not sound that bad

but there's a reality of like you know

if you do drop below that you're

probably going to stay below that for

like a year until you dirly get back

back above it in fact if you look at it

over here once we dropped Below in June

of 2019 we we had some Wicks back above

it but we didn't durably get back above

it until June of 20120 it took a year so

you know maybe it doesn't sound like the

worst thing in the world for eth Bitcoin

to go down here but if you do if you go

down there you might spend the next year

down there before before going back up

and remember I mean ethusd wasn't really

doing that well when eth Bitcoin was

down here eth Bitcoin had bottomed but

eth USD was still stuck in traffic on

struggle Street until Bitcoin until

loser monetary policy until really the

FED turned the money printer back on

right while looser monetary policy had

arrived in Q3 of the prehab Year back

then we didn't really see the money

printer come back on in in sort of all

its Glory until the having year um so

that is my view on on the eth Bitcoin

pair and I I think it I think I've made

my case for it over the last two and a

half years i' like to think it's been

helpful for some of you you know for

some of some of the viewers um it's it's

not fun you know it's certainly not fun

uh being bearish on something that you

know a lot of people are here because

they believe in ethereum right I mean if

you're watching these videos even even

if you've been with me on this journey

right even if you've been with me on the

journey uh and you agreed two two and a

half years ago that eth Bitcoin was

going to go

down I know some of you guys are

watching that are watching our Bitcoin

Maxis and I can empathize with that view

too but the reality is that a lot of you

that have been on this journey with me

are probably long-term bullish on on

ethereum from a fundamentals perspective

and you you want to believe in the

future of the cryptoverse and I do too

it's just that I saw this happen last

cycle like this pattern play out and it

it it was not fun to sort of not be

prepared for it this time you know

converting your your eth to bitcoin back

over here

it saved you a lot right because not

only did you hold a a a a lower risk

asset in

Bitcoin now if you wanted to convert

your Bitcoin back to eth you can

essentially double up right I mean you

could double up and it has nothing to do

if you're a Bitcoin Maxi or not even if

you're an eth Max you know there's a lot

of people that that I've seen people say

like they're they're eth Maxis and they

begrudgingly agreed with me back over

here and while they did not like that I

was sort of preaching this view they're

like it makes sense and now even if you

don't see the capitulation which I still

think you will even if you don't they

have the luxury to basically double up

on their eth right that's what I tell

people about like these Bitcoin pairs if

you like the altcoin so much that you

think is the best thing in the

world it would be prudent for you to

understand it's Bitcoin valuation

because that's how the cryptoverse works

right there are phases where no matter

what altcoin it is it's going to bleed

against Bitcoin and if you can identify

that phase and just stick with Bitcoin

through that phase then you have the

luxury to then go pick up that altcoin

at nothing on its Bitcoin valuation

compared to what you traded it in for

initially so that's why I say you know

if you really are super bullish on a

specific altcoin long term I think it's

still useful to learn about its Bitcoin

valuations because if you can learn

about it then you'll you'll know okay

there's certain phases the market cycle

it might make more sense just to be in

Bitcoin even though I believe in the

future of that

altcoin right because you're like all

right these views have nothing to do

with with Ben's bias on on this

particular altcoin it just has to do

with hey this is what happens when you

know when tighter monetary policy

arrives it's nothing personal it's

nothing like that it's just this is what

happened high high risk bleeds to low

risk during this phase of the

cycle where you know the FED is is

stubborn and and we're still at high

rates and we're still in in in

quantitative

tightening so those are my views um and

I I I think you know going forward you

know if we if we do see a capitulation

by eth Bitcoin below the range lows um

then it it likely will sort of kick off

the final capitulation process and I

think it's going to happen relatively

soon I mean it

is is potentially already happening and

again you you could still see another

bump back up for a week or something

where people are like all right well

maybe it'll still be approved the ETF

but I still think as I said before I

think the initial reaction is going to

be people pricing it

in and then it's just going to fade once

it becomes clearer and clearer as you

get closer to the date that it's not

actually happening and then as you get

towards that date then it actually just

sort of capitulates below when the

market finally accepts that hey you know

maybe we're going to have to wait

another year or longer before this

actually arrives so that is my view here

right and if you go back to the

six-month candles that we were talking

about

earlier what you'll notice is that that

last red candle I mean the green candle

was still kind of near those lows so

that's why I think while I do think e

Bitcoin is probably going to bottom this

summer you know is it in June where at

bottoms at the end of this six-month

candle or is it in July at the beginning

of this six-month candle you know and I

don't know the answer to that question I

mean at that point if you find eth

Bitcoin at like

0037 or something in June I mean that's

probably good enough for me you know to

to to sort of flip my view on the eth

Bitcoin valuation I'm not going to try

to pinch I'm not going to try to like

pinch SATs you know to um to see it go

down to wherever it has to go to but and

again the you know one thing to sort of

keep you in check on that is because I

mean I know I've talked about Bitcoin

dominance potentially topping in in

June and there's there's a chance that

that happens um but there is this you

know there is this other reality of if

you look closely you'll notice that

actually in 2022 it didn't top in June

right it actually topped in July about

one month later right it had a top in

June but then it swept that top about

one month later so you know I could see

that happening as well where like it it

Bottoms in June loose to monetary policy

arrives and then maybe it even goes a

little bit lower in July um SL August or

something but I you know if if you're

finding Bitcoin dominance up at this top

of the wedge and you're finding eth

Bitcoin at like 003 to 04 you're you're

you're probably close enough at that

point um that would at least be my view

on it in terms of like where the low

would actually be for the eth Bitcoin

valuation um so that's where we are by

the way the uh the bull market support

band right now for eth Bitcoin is at

0525 to 0053 so it is continuing to come

down and I the reason I provide that

update is because that is sort of the

line that I think will continue to push

e Bitcoin down and you know it's

possible you still Wick above it like

2019 had some Wicks above it but I still

think it's going to inevitably bleed

back to the downside take out out this

low from April um or at least revisit

that low uh within the next couple of

weeks and then probably take it out

either later on this month or in June as

the final capitulation process arrives

and E Bitcoin bottoms out and again I

think it bottoms out not because or I

think the capitulation process happens

not because um of anything to do with

the spot ETF I want to be clear I'm

saying that for you know the people that

really want to assign a narrative to it

in crypto I think it bottoms out in this

summer because if you follow the labor

market there's some cracks starting to

show right and I mean that's just the

reality right some cracks are starting

to show and you know again if you look

at at the unemployment rate it's it's

those very things that cause the FED to

Pivot right to lose for monetary policy

I mean it's the fact that you know we

are getting close to that 4% level and

it's probably going to happen this

summer and and also I mean if you look

at if you look at like

Roi uh after yield curve inversion and

you look at at say like this cycle

compared to let let me just pick some

like random um metric here in the

macroverse

um what's one that we could look at

right um something related to like the

labor market right so we just looked at

unemployment let's go look at Job losers

right let's look at Job losers so this

would be sort of what what you know the

the Ro Roi on job losers don't really

make a whole lot of sense but basically

the performance of job of job losers

that category after inversion of 3mon

and 10e yield and you look at it and

you're like all right it's been going up

you know it's been going up for a long

time and I know the market doesn't

really seem to care but I go back and

I'm like well does it look like any

other cycle or is this time really

different and then you know going to the

pandemic one I don't really think makes

a whole lot of sense because that's not

something you're going to like bet

everything on you're not going to be

betting on a Black Swan right but if you

go to the cycle before that one the

business cycle before for that one in

2006 I mean is it I mean is it different

I just I don't know I'm not saying it

has to get this bad but it just it

doesn't really look that different to me

and if you do see it continue to grind

higher here that's just going to make

the FED go to lose her monetary policy

so while I think everyone might be

freaking out about you know eth Bitcoin

because the spot ETF might be rejected

you might actually see eth Bitcoin

bottom out this summer because the labor

market is finally showing weakness and

that is what causes the FED to start to

expand their balance sheet has nothing

to do with the alt coins or anything

like that it just has to do with the

labor market and so that is is what I

will continue to focus on um and again

remember I mean even though eth Bitcoin

bottomed out right here ethusd still

struggled for a little while right again

there's a difference between eth Bitcoin

and

ethusd Please be aware of that right

there is a difference difference between

those two metrics if eth Bitcoin bottoms

that doesn't necessarily mean anything

for ethusd ethusd is going to be very

dependent on bitcoin

USD but I think that eth Bitcoin is

likely going to to bottom out sometime

in the next few months

and I just want to make sure that um you

know I've communicated my thesis as

clear as I can I could be wrong right

and if I'm wrong here then you know so

be it in order for me to start

questioning that if we were to get back

above the bull market sport band and

hold it as support then I would be

willing to Pivot my view okay

but it's just been down for years right

with I mean that's just what it's been

and the bull market support B continues

to guide us down with occasional rallies

above it but they've all just been fake

outs that just drew more people in they

they thought it was the bottom and then

it it wasn't um I also think the other

thing to look at this is something we

talked about a lot in in the last cycle

and that is the 20mon moving average so

in the future you know some nebulous

future date when eth Bitcoin gets above

the 20mon

SMA that should be

confirmation of this phase being over

but I think we're about to sort of enter

into that process right and then we go

back up and then we take out that

20-month SMA you know sometime out in

you know 2025 or something maybe even

late

2024 but that is something we talked

about a lot actually last cycle because

if you look closely when eth Bitcoin had

bottomed over here in 2019 it then all

these Wicks just kept getting rejected

by the 20-month moving average we did a

lot of videos on this like I mean it was

like four to five months of just

straight rejections off the 20-month SMA

we finally broke through and then once

we broke through we then back tested it

we we retested out support and then

continue to go up so you know that could

certainly happen at some point in the

future we're still pretty far away from

the 20-month SME right now and as last

cycle showed you know you start to test

it as resistance for a few months likely

before you actually get back above it

the 20-month SMA right now is at 0615 I

mean it's it's so far above where we

currently are my guess is that you know

you have sort of this capitulation down

we spend some time down here as the

20mon comes down to it and then you

start to go back up to it kind of like

this and then you you you break above it

kind of like that is what I would

generally expect for the eth Bitcoin

pair but those are my views on the eth

Bitcoin pair and we will see in fact if

all of that plays out this summer or not

and if it does not then I would be

looking for you know basically does it

get back above the bullmark sport band

to sort of confirm that it's it's done

again my base case is that it it it

bleeds into June and and maybe July but

it's always worthwhile to figure out

what would invalidate your view or your

bias and so perhaps the bull market

support ban would be the invalidation

right if you if you get above it and you

hold it as support that would be you

know the the invalidation of it right so

here's the 20we SMA right it just

continues to to mostly stay below that

well we're going to wrap it up there

thank you guys for tuning in make sure

you subscribe give the video a thumbs up

and I'll see you guys next time bye