The Quantum Computing Collapse Has Begun

Summary

In this video, the speaker reflects on the current state of quantum computing, a year after making predictions about its progress. While IBM's cautious approach with quantum qubits and error correction signals a more conservative future, other companies like D-Wave and PsiQuantum are facing financial difficulties. Google has made notable strides in error correction, but the high costs and technical challenges remain major hurdles. The speaker warns that the cost of developing commercial quantum computers could be so high that it may never justify the investment, with startups potentially collapsing under the pressure.

Takeaways

• 😀 Quantum computing is still in a superposition of both promising and unpromising developments as we approach 2024's end.
• 😀 IBM's announcement of a quantum chip with 1000 qubits raised questions about its performance, as few details were provided about its capabilities.
• 😀 IBM revised their quantum roadmap, shifting from exponential qubit growth to a focus on error correction, reflecting a more cautious approach.
• 😀 The quantum computing industry faces financial instability, with companies like D-Wave and Rigetti at risk of being delisted due to low stock prices.
• 😀 PsiQuantum, despite raising nearly a billion dollars, faces scrutiny over the appropriateness of Australian taxpayer investment in an American company.
• 😀 Google has made significant progress in error correction, demonstrating that error rates decrease exponentially as qubit numbers increase.
• 😀 IBM’s focus on error correction, rather than rushing to increase qubits, is a strategic decision to address the real challenges in quantum computing.
• 😀 The cost of developing a quantum computer for commercial use could reach billions, possibly exceeding $100 billion, making it a high financial gamble.
• 😀 The financial pressure on quantum startups could lead to a collapse of the industry if investor confidence continues to decline.
• 😀 The future of quantum computing is uncertain, but with time and more investment, breakthroughs could still occur, potentially changing the industry landscape.

Q & A

What did the author predict about quantum computing in 2024?

The author predicted that 2024 would be the year when the hype around quantum computing would peak and then falter.

How does the author feel about making predictions regarding quantum computing?

The author expresses hesitation in making predictions, suggesting that the situation with quantum computing will remain in a superposition of being both promising and unpromising.

What was IBM's major milestone in quantum computing a year ago?

A year ago, IBM presented its first quantum computing chip with more than 1000 qubits.

What was peculiar about IBM's announcement of their quantum computing chip?

IBM said very little about the performance of the 1000-qubit chip, which the author found suspicious.

How did IBM revise its quantum computing roadmap?

IBM revised its roadmap by scaling back its projections for increasing qubit numbers and instead focusing on error correction. They now plan to stay at 1000 qubits for the next few years.

What risk are quantum computing companies like D-Wave and Rigetti facing?

D-Wave and Rigetti are at risk of being delisted from the New York Stock Exchange due to a significant drop in their stock prices.

What is the controversy surrounding PsiQuantum?

PsiQuantum has raised nearly a billion dollars in funding, much of it from Australian taxpayers. This has prompted concerns and investigations from members of the Australian parliament about whether it was an appropriate use of public money.

What recent achievement has Google made in the field of quantum computing?

Google made significant progress in error correction by demonstrating that the number of errors decreases exponentially as the number of qubits increases.

What is the main challenge IBM and Google face with quantum computing?

The main challenge is not just increasing the number of qubits, but ensuring that the qubits can be used effectively without increasing errors, especially when adding more qubits.

Why is IBM cautious about increasing the number of qubits in their quantum computers?

IBM is cautious because adding more qubits can introduce new errors, and they want to ensure that error correction works before scaling up the number of qubits.

What is the biggest risk associated with quantum computing, according to the author?

The biggest risk is not that quantum computing won't work, but that the cost of developing it to a commercially viable level might be so high that it never justifies the investment.

What is the author's estimate for the cost of building a commercially viable quantum computer?

The author estimates the cost to be in the range of a few dozen billion dollars or even up to 100 billion dollars.

What potential future outcome does the author foresee for quantum computing startups?

The author suggests that quantum computing startups will be forced to raise more money until investors lose faith, which could lead to the collapse of the entire sector.

What does the author say about the development of quantum computing in the near future?

While the author acknowledges the challenges, they note that the field is rapidly developing, and there may be a turnaround with more time and investment.

How does the author encourage learning more about quantum mechanics?

The author encourages viewers to check out their quantum mechanics course on Brilliant.org, which covers fundamental concepts like wave functions, superposition, entanglement, and more.